Big Ten: Where the Rest of the Conference Would Rank in Polls

The Big Ten continues to be well represented in the polls this week.

Wisconsin leads the way as the top-five team/fringe national title contender coming in at fourth in the AP poll and fifth in the Coaches' poll. With the stiffest Big Ten challenge behind them (until a date with Illinois on Nov. 19), the Badgers will be hanging in a state of limbo and hoping teams above them fail.

Sitting in the 8-to-15-because-we-think-they-are-really-good-but-the-bottom-could-fall-out-anytime range is Michigan (11th/12th).

With back-to-back road trips, the Wolverines get a chance to justify the optimism. Nebraska sits in the same range after a precipitous drop following the curb stomp in Madison.

Illinois and Michigan State round out the representatives in the polls. Illinois is 19th and 16th, respectively, while Michigan State is 20th in the Coaches' poll and the first team out of the AP.

So that is what we know, but what about what we don't know.

The polls stop at No. 25, but that gives us little information on where the rest of the Big Ten sits in relation to the rest of the FBS. That doesn't mean we can't wildly guess where these teams would end up given a little bit of data, and a few games for comparison's sake.

Here is one humble writer's very specific guesses where the rest of the Big Ten would rank if the AP poll extended to 120 places. This exercise tries to ignore preseason expectations and name-recognition bias, just looking at results on the field.

FEI rankings were not updated when this was written, and therefore anytime they are referenced, it should be noted that they are from Week 4.

Penn State (4-1)

Given the votes, Penn State would rank at No. 33 in the AP and No. 30 in the Coaches' poll. This is very much in line with the FEI rankings, and very much out of line with how we judge Penn State on the eye test.

Penn State crushed two unfortunate patsies (Indiana State and EMU) while sneaking by Temple and Indiana. The one loss comes at the hands of Alabama in what was more of a bludgeoning.

Penn State is ranked this high on the strength of its defense.

The Nittany Lions greatly benefit from a high-ranking defense—currently fifth in total defense at 250 yards per game and seventh at 12 points per game.

However, these rankings are more a factor of the quality of competition. Penn State's three FBS wins have been over the 74th-ranked Indiana, 85th-ranked Temple and 97th-ranked EMU in total offenses.

This is a good thing too because the Nittany Lions are currently 81st in total offense (370 ypg) and 93rd in scoring offense (23 ppg), with both the passing (66th) and running (61st) games being average.

Despite an anemic offense and a defense that has had the luxury to beat up on a handful of bad teams, the advanced stats love Penn State. The school currently sits at No. 34 in the FEI's ratings, and an incredible seventh in the S&P rankings—above Oregon, Georgia Tech and LSU.

This is why we can't leave things up to the machines.

Penn State is a bad offensive team and is led by a solid defense that has feasted on subpar competition. Both the voters and FEI got this one wrong for wildly different reasons (name recognition and inflated defensive statistics, respectively).

Penn State has yet to really put together a complete effort against a good team and question marks at quarterback continue to haunt the team. Penn State moves down from where the current smattering of votes places it.

Similar teams don't have particularly strong resumes but a lot of wins, they have a loss or losses that raise major concerns or aren't strong on one side of the ball. Think Tennessee, Wake Forest and Washington State.

Final Rank: 44th

Iowa (3-1)

The Hawkeyes don't get as much love from the polls, coming in at the equivalent of 37th in the Coaches' poll, but are rated almost 10 spots higher than Penn State in the FEI rankings (26th).

This is most likely due to Iowa having a much more well-rounded resume. Iowa currently ranks 53rd in scoring defense (23 ppg) and 73rd in total offense (385 ypg), while ranking 21st (37 ppg) and 45th in total offense (421 ypg).

So far, Iowa has had to lean on the passing game—28th nationally at 281 ypg—because the rushing offense is slightly below average (69th, 140 ypg).

The defensive numbers don't match up to Penn State's, but Iowa is doing a better job of scoring and stopping the opposing team than the yardage would lead one to believe.

Iowa is 20 spots better in both scoring offense and defense than it is in total offense and total defense. The reason for this is in the details. Iowa is above average in punts (56th) and kickoff returns (47th), and an astonishing fourth in net punting.

The Hawkeyes are also tied at 16th in turnover margin at plus-1 per game.  

While the Nittany Lions are relying on a defense that has done little more than shut out poor offenses, the Hawkeyes have at least displayed some balance on both sides of the ball.  

While Iowa isn't an elite team, and we have yet to see where they stand against Big Ten competition (one circumstance that hurts Penn State tremendously after squeaking by Indiana), the Hawkeyes look like the more complete team so far. Any way, we will find out this weekend.

As for where Iowa ranks, 37th doesn't give the Hawkeyes enough credit for setting up good field position and finding opportunities while avoiding bad situations with a high-turnover margin.

Iowa isn't yet ready to be in the Top 25, or even the first five out, but the Hawkeyes have done enough to justify taking over where Penn State currently sits in the additional votes.

Similar teams have a black eye as far as a loss, decent non-con schedule and solid production on both sides of the ball. Think Notre Dame, Georgia and USC.

Final Rank: 33rd

Northwestern (2-2)

The Wildcats are an interesting case.  

This is a team that, for its first three games, was missing starting quarterback Dan Persa and was able to win only two until he returned. Once Persa was back in the fold, he led the WIldcats to an early lead against Illinois before removing himself from the game after tweaking the injury.  

Northwestern went on to lose the game.

Northwestern is 2-2 and it is hard to tell just how good of a team it can be.

Even though it was pegged as a dark horse contender for the Legend's Division before the season on the strength of a high-powered and efficient offense, without Persa, Northwestern has struggled and sits at 77th in total offense (374 ypg) and 65th in scoring offense (28 ppg).  

The passing game is largely responsible for this, as backup Kain Colter hasn't been able to produce more than 167 ypg—105th in the nation.

The defense hasn't been much for stopping opponents, giving up 414 yards per game (94th), but the Wildcats have kept opposing teams out of the end zone with some success (24 ppg allowed).

The discrepancy between yards and points makes the Wildcats' defense seem better, as does the plus-1.25 turnover margin (13th nationally), but one troubling aspect is how Northwestern has been burned in its two losses.  

Against Army, an option team with no passing threat, Northwestern allowed 381 yards on the ground at over five yards per carry.  Once it looked like Northwestern would be vulnerable to the run, the Wildcats held the powerful Illinois run game to less than 100 yards, with just three yards per carry. However, the Wildcats let Nathan Scheelhaase pass for 391 yards and three touchdowns.

Northwestern is a team without an offensive identity and a questionable defense.  

There is potential for Northwestern to win every game left on its schedule (no Wisconsin this year), but the Wildcats could also lose five games if no long-term defensive solution is found and Persa struggles to stay healthy. However, playing Illinois close is a good sign, as is finding a way to stop the run game and having Persa back in some capacity.

Similar teams have underperformed in expectations thus far or have one surprising loss and another impressive game against a better team. Think BYU, TCU and Mississippi State.

Rank: 51st

Ohio State (3-2)

There have been plenty of arguments made through the years that the Coaches' poll should be summarily executed, its corpse burned and its ashes shot into space.  

There is the fact that the ballots are secret until the final poll is released, or the fact that coaches, who take the time to properly come up with a competent ballot (i.e. watch a number of games), are either not doing their job coaching their teams or judging teams simply by the name on the jersey and conference bias.

Then there is the mother of all arguments against the coaches poll: Something inherent in this poll's structure allowed Ohio State to receive one vote.

Now there is bias, and then there is this. Ohio State has already played two games where it failed to break 200 yards of offense. Had it not been for the final two drives of the second half against MSU, Ohio State would have ended the game with negative yardage for the half.

This team isn't just two or three (suspended) players from the Top 25, it has a functional offense away.  

Right now the Buckeyes are at 108th nationally in total offense (308 ypg) and 91st in scoring offense. This is despite three games against the 111th (Akron), 89th (Colorado), and 72nd (Toledo) yardage defenses to pad stats.

Ohio State's defense is solidly in the top 15 (11th scoring, 13th total), but games against Miami and Michigan State proved that defense won't be enough. With DeVier Posey and Dan Herron seeing their suspensions extended, things don't look to be improving any time soon.

Similar teams: Good lord, I don't even know if there is a parallel for a perennial power that has completely fallen apart on one side of the ball but is still capable of being a Top-25 unit on the other side.

This Ohio State team is certainly one of a kind. The best comparison I can come up with is Texas A&M and that is only if the Aggies played just second halves.

Final Rank: 64th, and generously so only because the defense is still capable of keeping the offense in games against bad-to-average teams. Any ranking above 50 and you are either an unabashed homer, or just stepped out of a time machine from last year.

Purdue (2-2)

By the numbers you would think that Purdue is a better team than it is.  

The Boilermakers are in the top 70 of the rankings for all four major offensive and defensive categories except one: in pass offense (81st). This all seems to point to a team that might even be better than its 2-2 record.  

This would be wrong.

Purdue is fortunate that it has only played one team with a pulse, but that team took Purdue to the woodshed.

One of Purdue's opponents, South East Missouri State, is FCS and as with any serious discussion of football does, not count (so too do we throw out Purdue's 59-0 win and the stats that were accrued in route to it).

Two other opponents were either horrible on offense (Rice ranks 96th in scoring offense and 109th in total offense) or horrible on defense (Middle Tennessee State is 109th in scoring defense and 112th in total defense).

Despite this, Purdue was 1-1 in these games and both were decided in the final minute.

The Boilermakers are, in a word, a sheep in wolf's clothing. A team without teeth that has built up respectable stats against some subpar competition. The one solid team Purdue faced was Notre Dame last weekend.

How did that turn out? A Notre Dame blowout, 38 - 10.

Similar teams have a very unimpressive resume and a loss against the only decent team on the schedule so far. Think Kansas, Ole Miss and UCLA.

Final Rank: 74th

Indiana (1-4)

The Hoosiers are essentially a worse version of Purdue.

Indiana has played a FCS team, two bad mid-major schools (Ball State and North Texas), a bad BCS conference school (Virginia) and Penn State. With this entirely manageable schedule, the Hoosiers have struggled to just 1-4 on the season.

Indiana has put together an above average passing offense—44th in the nation at 256 yards per game—but the lack of any coherent running attack and poor pass efficiency (81st) has kept the Hoosiers' scoring to just 24 ppg (90th).

All this despite a good turnover margin of plus-.60 per game. Opponents have also been a mix of good and bad.  

Virginia and Penn State both have top 25 defenses statistically, while Ball State and UNT are both very bad, 109th and 113th, respectively.

On the other side of the ball, the Hoosiers look better statistically.  

Scoring defense is 58th in the nation (24 ppg) despite giving up over 400 yards per game. While the positive turnover margin helps here as well, so does a schedule that hasn't exactly included a murderer's row of offenses to this point.  

The best scoring offense the Hoosiers have faced has been 74th-ranked Virginia with 27 points per game. Ball State, Penn State and North Texas are all ranked below 90th.

Indiana is not a good football team. The defense is average against bad competition and the offense isn't any good at creating points. Losses to a MAC and a Sun Belt team don't help matters.

Similar teams are at the bottom of their respective BCS conferences and aren't competitive outside of games against mid-majors. Think:  Oregon State North Carolina State and Kentucky.

Final Rank: 95th

Minnesota (1-4)

Let me say this unequivocally: Minnesota is the worst BCS conference team.

Minnesota might even be the worst FBS team, only a game against Akron or Memphis would put that debate to rest for good.

However, comparative debates that prominently involve Akron and Memphis are depressing and besides the point at this time. Numbers are much more useful—and for Gopher fans, sad.

Of the eight major statistical categories, Minnesota is ranked in the 100s in six of them: pass offense (106th), total offense (104th), scoring offense (106th), pass eff. defense (107th), total defense (101st) and scoring defense (101st).  

The only decent aspect of the Minnesota game, on paper, is the ground game, where Minnesota is 55th nationally at 153 yards per game on offense while holding opponents to 156 ypg (70th).  

The offensive competency comes from quarterback Marqueis Gray, who was the third-leading rusher in the Big Ten before going down with an injury and missing the Michigan game.

Outside of the small bright spot that is the average Gopher run game, the rest of the season has been a colossal disappointment.  

After playing a competitive game against USC, but ultimately falling short in a fourth-quarter comeback, Minnesota went on to lose to New Mexico State and North Dakota State, with the Gophers' lone win coming against Miami (OH).  

The first Big Ten game offered no relief: Minnesota walked into a buzzsaw in Ann Arbor, Mich., without the help of Gray. The 58-0 loss was a lot uglier than the score indicated—imagine a high school team wandering into the Big House and you have some approximation of how overmatched Minnesota was in this game.

As it stands, Minnesota looks to be very fortunate to have sneaked out one win. Minnesota doesn't get a cross-divisional game against Indiana this year and has to travel to West Lafayette to play Purdue.

Things couldn't be going much worse in Minnesota and they aren't looking up anytime soon.

Similar teams: Like I said, Memphis and Akron come to mind. Think of the four worst teams in FBS. All four could well be better than Minnesota.

Final Rank: 119th