College Football: 15 Teams That Are Still a Year Away

Now that five weeks of the 2011 season are in the books the inevitable process of separating the teams into certain “season destiny” categories has begun in earnest.

Some teams have shown themselves to be contenders (from a divisional, conference or even national standpoint), others are deemed pretenders (they were hyped or hopeful and have played themselves into a huge hole) while others are still riding the fence with a season that could go either way (i.e. the 2-2, 2-3 and 3-2 teams of the world).

Another subset of teams are those that are relatively youthful and have shown enough spark to lead us to believe that though this year might not be “THE” season that next year is certainly worth eagerly anticipating.

Whether it’s a string of close losses against quality opponents, young talented players making critical mistakes or a new coach who needs a full season (or two) to slowly turn the wheel at the helm in order to get his assigned ship back in the right direction, the following slideshow pinpoints 15 teams that are still a year away.

A year away from what?

Well, the answer to that question could be as varied as the teams themselves…a divisional/conference title, bowl eligibility or even the big huge cheesy enchilada (aka the whole shootin’ match).

Florida

The Gators looked “for real” in the first quarter and a half against Alabama in their Week 5 meeting in Gainesville, and regardless of the real challenges remaining of youth and a huge injury at QB, Florida is likely to be THE team to beat in the SEC-East in 2012.

Another year also gives Will Muschamp time to get his bearings and put all the pieces together…and if they fit like they could, you’ve got a good chance that Florida will back in the Top 10 in 2012.

The bottom line with Florida is that you simply cannot deny their speed and talent, both qualities that literally ooze off the bench and onto the field.

Look for the Gators to win some more games this season (especially if QB Brantley returns) but watch out next season when the chomp will be back on.

Iowa State

Thus far in 2011 the Cyclones have scored three wins by a combined total of seven points (FCS Northern Iowa, Iowa and UConn) and then dropped a home game to Texas in a turnover fest that got ugly in a big hurry.

Though Iowa State has already made more noise than many expected, this is still one of the youngest teams in the country that is reloading after struggling to a 5-7 finish in 2010 against one of the most difficult schedules in the country.

The slate of games this season isn’t any easier (Phil Steele ranks it No. 2 nationally in difficulty) but this is a team that will only get better regardless of what the final record indicates.

Iowa State will be an improved team in 2012 and if they start winning some conference games (they’ve only won three each in the last two seasons) it may come as a surprise but perhaps shouldn’t because Paul Rhoads definitely has the Cyclones showing a huge spark.

The tough bit for Iowa State is that they have to overcome their labeling as a perennial “struggler” within the Big 12 which is a tag that other teams on this list (i.e. Florida, Auburn, Florida State) don’t have to deal with.

It comes down to believing you are good enough and then closing out close conference games as a result.

Miami FL

It may be unfair to put Al Golden’s Hurricanes on this list because first they’ve dealt with (and are dealing with) a slow start due to sanctions and secondly at 2-2 their 2011 season is certainly not a wash.

But it also seems safe to say that the goal of the Miami, FL football program lies far beyond going to and winning a decent bowl game or even being a part of the divisional championship conversation.

Miami wants championships, they want to win the ACC and be a part of the national championship conversation and they want to be in the BCS equation.

These are all goals that have eluded the Hurricanes since they joined the ACC in 2004.

Chances are with two losses those aims won’t be met this season but given one more year (assuming postseason sanctions don’t come down the pipe) what can Golden do with this team?

You already see the beginnings of an attitude and culture transformation and you can sense the return of the swagger which means 2012 might signal the real return of Hurricane football.

Mississippi State

It’s hard to say whether Mississippi State is one season away, one QB away or one schedule away from finally reaching pay dirt.

The goal for the Bulldogs has got to be successfully navigating the SEC West and finding an unlikely way to the SEC title game; an aim that is on par with winning the conference and making the BCS for other schools.

We all knew coming into 2011 that MSU would have to find a way to beat at least a couple of their divisional rivals to even be considered a minimal part of the conversation and now with losses to Auburn, LSU and Georgia (who is in the East but the defeat is still a conference one) it’s simply not looking good for the Bulldogs.

Mississippi State is 0-3 in the SEC which puts them at last place in their division and they still have to face No. 18 South Carolina (at home), No. 2 Alabama (also in Starkville) and No. 10 Arkansas on the road.

Will next season be their season?  Boy, you sure would like to think so, but the same hurdles will be there next year in terms of conference opponents and the experience will begin to graduate at the same time.

Texas Tech

At 4-0 who at Texas Tech could possibly have any complaints or foreboding premonitions about how 2011 will pan out for the mighty Red Raiders?

Well, for starters the four wins are over FCS Texas State, New Mexico, Nevada and Kansas who combine for a 3-10 record thus far in 2011 (this calculation made by throwing out Texas State’s record).

Add to this a defense that has looked absolutely porous in the last two games against Nevada and Kansas (68 total points allowed, 1040 total yards allowed, 489 yards of passing allowed and 551 whopping yards of rushing allowed) and you’ve got a “gnashing of teeth” outlook going into the meat of the Big 12 schedule.

Yes, how about a total margin of victory in the last two games of 12 points and a performance last weekend that included 17 penalties for 154 yards?

Six of the remaining eight games for Tech are against teams that are currently ranked in the Top 25, three are in the Top 10 and the two that aren’t ranked are Missouri and Iowa State (no cream puffs here).

Having firmly established that the Red Raiders aren’t likely to escape 2011 without a few scars, bumps and a big purple bruise, looking ahead to 2012 this young Texas Tech team has much to look forward to.

Combine Top 20 recruiting classes, young players getting loads of “on the job training” against top opponents, a proven coach that has another year to get his systems and mentality in place and you’ve got the perfect storm for a run, only it’s a race that’s not likely to start until 2012 or 2013.

Hold on Red Raider fans, the ride might get real bumpy for a while but don’t be fooled, waiting it out will be well worth your efforts.

Louisiana Tech

At 1-4 it’s pretty safe to say that the Bulldogs won’t be dancing in the streets of Ruston at the end of the 2011 campaign, but Louisiana Tech is one of the better 1-4 squads in the nation.

Yes it’s a tough thing to say, but the Bulldogs have lost more impressively than any other team in the country with the exception of perhaps Utah State, who you’ll find later in our listing.

Throwing out the Week 5 drubbing against Hawaii (44-26) La Tech’s other three losses came by a combined nine points and all came against teams who are likely bowl bound this season (Southern Miss, Houston and Mississippi State).

In each game the Bulldogs had an opportunity to win and just couldn’t close the deal (giving up 21 points to Houston in the fourth quarter, a long game-winning field goal by Southern Miss and an INT in overtime against Mississippi State).

Suddenly, 4-1 became 1-4.

But hope abounds for the young Bulldogs going into 2012 and two big reasons standout for the good tidings.

First, you have true freshman QB Nick Isham who at 17 years old has 1231 yards, seven TDs and seven  INTs, foretelling what could be a tremendous collegiate career and secondly you’ve got a transformed WAC in 2012 that will be pared down enough to produce a new set of leaders.

Yes gone to the MWC will be Hawaii, Fresno State and Nevada leaving a conference dilapidated but deliciously winnable.

Florida State

Though the Seminoles 2-2 start in 2011 is on the surface far from catastrophic we have to remember that this is a team whose goals began with an ACC title.

Yes, a conference crown was not assumed but expected and a national title was therefore thought to be at least realistic…and that makes 2-2 become almost unbearable.

At the end of the day it’s not the loss to top ranked Oklahoma that broke the hearts of the followers of Chief Osceola; it was instead the five-point defeat to Clemson that put even a divisional title for the Seminoles in serious jeopardy.

Yes, expected superstar QB EJ Manuel went down against Oklahoma, but even with this loss FSU is No. 13 nationally in passing yards managing 328 yards a game through the air.

What’s kicked the Seminoles in their two losses is a serious inability to run the ball, they posted only 27 yards rushing against Oklahoma and then only 29 against Clemson…not good.

On top of that, key mistakes in two different areas killed Florida State in these huge games; in the Oklahoma game it was three turnovers and in the Clemson game it was 11 penalties for 124 yards.

Hey, Florida State could still manage a trip to the ACC title game but all national title and perhaps BCS dreams are out the window.

Maybe the surge we saw at the end of the 2010 season was indeed real but possibly it was foreshadowing a team that would improve in 2011 but not to the championship level…yet.

Perhaps 2012 is the year for Florida State.

Pittsburgh

Pitt sits at 3-2 which looks agreeable until you remember that the two losses came via a combined seven points to quality opponents (Iowa and Notre Dame) ultimately signaling that a 5-0 start has just slipped through the hands of a solid Panther squad.

What you can see when you watch Pitt’s 2012 product play is that this is a team with a boat load of talent, palpable momentum and a winning energy that will continue to improve as time goes on.

Can they grapple with West Virginia and Cincinnati and claim the Big East?

Maybe, but with players like junior QB Tino Sunseri and junior RB Ray Graham the future looks very bright for the Panthers, meaning next season could be the year that narrow defeats become big juicy wins.

2011 is no wash for Pitt, but ultimately it gives first year head man Todd Graham a year to work with this team and make it his own.

A squad that has a realistic opportunity to be on track for more than just a lame duck Big East title in the 2012 season.

Nebraska

Despite all the hype, Nebraska is a young team.

Coming into 2011 Phil Steele ranked the Cornhuskers No. 9 out of the 12 Big Ten members in terms of experience and their national rating was a relatively low No. 81 (out of 120 teams).

One of the underplayed storylines in the amped up excitement about Nebraska in the Big Ten was that it absolutely inflated expectations for the Cornhuskers and perhaps didn’t give enough ink to areas of concern.

Still, Nebraska is 4-1 going into Week 6 but the good feelings associated with wins over FCS Chattanooga, Fresno State, Washington and Wyoming was thoroughly wrung out with the ugly Week 5 loss at Wisconsin (which should be qualified by saying that the Badgers are one of the best teams in the nation).

Though the Cornhuskers could realistically run the tables and win out, creating what would likely be a rematch with Wisconsin in the first ever Big Ten title game I personally get a sinking feeling that though Nebraska will play in a good bowl game this season, it still just isn’t their year (and in this scenario “their year” equals a championship of some sort).

Why?

Well, they are No. 73 in scoring defense (averaging 27.2 points per game) and allowed Fresno State 29 points, Washington 38 and Wyoming 14.

They’ve allowed over 150 yards of rushing and 224 yards passing over five games (again, look at the opponents), they’ve suffered nine turnovers and they still have to play the rest of their Big Ten schedule.

Nebraska is a good, talented and aggressive team that still has a lot to look forward to in 2011, but I think 2012 could be even better, in a big way.

Notre Dame

After a huge dose of media driven excitement that told of a possible triumphant return of Irish football, Notre Dame’s 0-2 start zapped them off the radar almost as fast as Oklahoma State can score points.

Yes, the turnover riddled losses to USF and then the thriller to Michigan had voters drop Notre Dame like the biggest hot potato since Steak and Ale went out of business.

Regardless of what the Irish wind up making of the 2011 season with two losses and the opportunity to add to that in a schedule that looks fairly harmless on the surface it’s hard to see Notre Dame in the BCS this year.

And we all have to assume that the BCS is Notre Dame’s goal because in the current climate of college football the elite teams are recognized as those who do the foxtrot with the rich guys.

Remember, this is a team that is improving but this is still a squad that is tied for the third most turnovers in college football (15) and a team that ranks No. 75 nationally in points scored.

What leads you to believe that Notre Dame will eventually catch up with its own hype is coach Brian Kelly, who has managed to turn around and then sustain a championship caliber teams at each of his three previous stops.

To illustrate, Kelly went 4-7 and 6-5 during his first two seasons at Central Michigan before exploding to 10-4 in 2006.

The guy is seriously that good.

TCU

After suffering no more than two losses five out of the last six seasons, the Horned Frogs have already dropped two games in 2011.

First there was the Week 1 “almost comeback” 50-48 loss to Baylor and then last weekend's unthinkable 40-33 “almost comeback II” loss to SMU in overtime.

Twenty-five fourth-quarter points against the Bears and 23 fourth-quarter points against the Mustangs weren’t enough to preserve an eight-game season opener winning streak and a 22-game home winning streak.

But TCU's fall from grace shouldn’t come as a huge shock as the Frogs returned only eight starters from their undefeated 2010 Rose Bowl championship squad and garnered Phil Steele’s No. 116 ranking (out of 120 teams) in terms of experience.

Yes, there were going to be some bumps in the 2011 road.

Regardless of the schematics, you still see the purple fire well lit under the young Toads this season and you just know that they will win games this year and probably even more in 2012 because Gary Patterson coaches winning teams, period.

What sweetens the pot in 2012 for TCU is that they will finally be in a BCS conference (which at this point looks to be the Big 12) which gives “a year away” a dual meaning for a team who has eagerly awaited a clear path to the national title game.

USC

The Trojans are “a year away” on so many different fronts that if this was a ranked list they’d be No. 1.

Yeah USC is 4-1 and hey, they’ve looked promising, porous and oh so talented in 2011 but 2012 looms colossal on the horizon of Troy for at least a dozen reasons.

First, you have junior QB Matt Barkley who has all the right stuff to have that “blooming into a Heisman-hood” talk with his parents and then there is the “HOLY CRAP” factor of sophomore WR Robert Woods who has got to have scared the pants off the rest of the Pac-12 (gulp, gulp…this guy is for REAL).

Yes, overall USC is a young team that statistical wizard Phil Steele has ranked at No. 102 nationally in terms of experience.

They’re young, they’re talented and the big huge kicker is that they will finally have something to play for in 2012.

Yes, next season the gloves come back off, the chastity belt preventing postseason play or championships gets busted and USC will be back to playing for keeps.

Sure, the coaching staff has probably very rightly told the boys, “we’re USC and we play to win regardless of the postseason ban, we win games.”

But, holy schnikes how great will be to see this mature team charge out of the gates in their chariot next season?

A year away…that’s all that remains Trojan fans!

Auburn

Auburn’s situation coming into 2011 was a lot like that of TCU, a perfect season followed by unprecedented turnover in terms of personnel.

But, the Tigers situation was more severe than was that of the Frogs and it was so on two fronts.

First, Auburn lost more and they didn’t just suffer more attrition than did TCU, they suffered more than anyone in the country, yes Phil Steele had them at No. 120 out of 120 in terms of experience levels (only six starters came back and 31 lettermen were gone from the 2010 championship offering).

Secondly, the Tigers would have to face an SEC West slate as opposed to a MWC schedule for TCU…a huge difference no matter how you slice it.

All this makes Auburn’s 4-1 start and No. 15 ranking seem almost like a dream sequence, but the truth is it’s a tribute to how scrappy, determined, talented and well coached this team is.

Give Gene Chizik and the boys a bunch of credit because this is a very good football squad that has had the cards stacked squarely against it.

Still, and even though the era of glad tidings is certainly for real, it’s hard to see Auburn managing even a repeat divisional title (hmmm, LSU and Alabama are still out there somewhere) which means that though you have to like what they’re doing this year, next year looks even sweeter.

Auburn in 2012, it could be War Damn Eagle all over again.

Tennessee

Amidst all the other scrumptious SEC storylines don’t forget old Tennessee, who is slowly evolving into a really good football team.

What’s their record?  How are they playing?  What’s up with the Volunteers?

Well, they are 3-1 and the wins came against FCS Montana, Cincinnati and Buffalo, the loss came in a relatively close defeat to a very good Florida team in the Swamp (33-23).

The Vols are No. 20 in points for (37.8 points per game) and No. 20 in points against (20.5 points per game), they have been successful through the air (336 yards per game, No. 11 nationally) and have struggled on the ground (111 yards per game, No. 98 nationally).

Yes, Tennessee is building momentum in 2011 and they are relatively young but they are about to run into a buzz saw in their schedule that could put off the tangible results until next season.

Things kick off with this coming Saturday with home games against Georgia and then No. 1 LSU and are followed up with a road trip to No. 2 Alabama and a home game against No. 18 South Carolina.

After that a cooling off period ensues that’s interrupted by a November 12 road trip to No. 10 Arkansas.

The Volunteer’s improvements in 2011 may well be misrepresented by an overall record that skews the facts meaning that a “shocking” (on the surface) historic season (given a more favorable schedule) may be just around the corner.

Utah State

The Utah State Aggies are arguably the best 1-3 team in the nation (giving props to the 1-4 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs who we discussed earlier).

Yes, 1-3 ain’t pretty but a win over an FCS team and then three losses to quality opponents by a combined nine points is nothing to snort at.

The Aggies season started with the biggest “almost upset” game of the season when the defending champion Auburn Tigers escaped with a narrow victory that included a fortuitous (though well executed) onside kick and two late touchdowns and carried on with a 35-34 OT loss to Colorado State where in the Aggies suffered four devastating turnovers.

The narrowness continued in Week 5 with a BYU score with just 11 ticks left on the clock to upset yet another upset bid by a 27-24 margin.

Yes, the Aggies haven’t closed out any of their FBS opponents this season, but they sure have looked good not doing it.

Though Utah State will no doubt win some more football games in 2011 if the first bowl appearance since 1997 and the first postseason victory since 1993 is a goal, then 2012 is probably where to look.

The Aggies are not as youthful as Louisiana Tech but they share two key elements in their optimism about the omnipotent charms of “next year.”

First, they both have young super talented QBs, the Aggies have freshman sensation Chuckie Keeton under center and secondly they will both play in a much altered WAC in 2012 that will be without current front-runners Hawaii, Nevada and Fresno State who follow Boise State to the MWC next season.

What Utah State has that the Bulldogs can’t touch is a running game that is ranked No. 5 in the country (307.5 yards per game) and is anchored by junior RB Robert Turbin (488 yards and nine TDs thus far), again look who the numbers come against.

Could 2012 bring the Aggies first ever WAC title and their first championship since they won the Big West crown in 1997?