MLB Playoffs 2011: 6 Most Overrated Statistics in the Phillies-Cardinals Series

As the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals playoff series approaches and series previews are written, invariably many fans and writers will talk about random statistics based almost entirely on either small sample sizes or flawed metrics (wins, RBI, anyone?).

I don't care what Ryan Howard's average is in the fourth inning at Busch Stadium against Kyle Lohse, before the second inning and between 50 and 60 degrees, but whatever it is, I can tell you how he'll most likely perform in the future.

Chances are he'll hit about the same, as his numbers over the last few seasons suggest, against an above average, right-handed pitcher.

Please note I just made this scenario up and have no idea what it actually is, but it's used to serve the point. 

Now, onto the stats.

Kyle Lohse Has a 1.76 ERA Against the Phillies This Season

I've heard this statistic a lot. What they don't tell you is that it encompasses a whole 15.1 innings and 21 batters faced.

Common sense should tell you that that is nowhere near enough of a sample size. In lieu of that, you may even hear he has a 0.00 ERA in an impressive 7.1 innings at Citizens Bank Park. 

Which can you expect? If you prefer solely looking at his games against the Phillies, a 3.43 ERA is at least closer, but still consists of just 60.1 innings.

Lohse's 3.39 ERA this year, despite a 4.04 xFIP and 4.11 SIERA, suggests he's had some good luck on his side. A righty who struggles missing bats sounds like a recipe for some hard-hit balls for Howard and even Ibanez. 

Jaime Garcia Is Horrible on the Road and Great at Home

This season, Garcia's home ERA is 2.55 and his road ERA 4.61.

As a result, Cardinals' manager Tony La Russa opted to pitch Jaime Garcia at home for Game 3 rather than in one of the first two games. This tells me the numbers-orientated La Russa, places emphasis on the wrong numbers. 

Looking deeper, his away xFIP this year(3.29) is actually lower than his home xFIP(3.34). He's striking out batters at exactly the same rate (18.9 percent) and walking batters at a slightly lesser rate away than at home(5.7 percent compared to 6.5 percent).

This tells me he's exactly the same pitcher at home as he is away. This shouldn't be a shocking concept to grasp. 

So you're probably thinking, then what makes his ERA so different? It's pretty simple. At home his BABIP is a low .265 and on the road it's an astoundingly high .369. 

Antonio Bastardo's 11.05 ERA in September

Along with Ryan Madson, Bastardo had been one of the Phillies best two relievers all season. Then came September. With a 11.05 ERA in the month some Phillies fans didn't even want to risk him being on the postseason roster.

Was he bad this month? Sure, not 11.05 ERA bad, but not good by any stretch of the imagination. Still, a one month sample size for a reliever is hardly enough. 

Some have pointed to tiredness, even though he's pitched a similar amount of innings in the minors. Some say he's tipping pitches, which I find an easy excuse, which would have had to date all the way back to mid-to-late August.

Or he simply just could have had a bad month, with suspect execution and some bad luck. I'd rather trust his ability to miss bats(15.3 swinging-strike percentage) than opt for a desperation switch to Joe Savery. 

Cardinals Are Hot, Phillies Not so Much

The Cardinals finished the year 16-5. Prior to the Phillies winning their last four games, they lost eight straight.

How a team finishes their season is overrated every year. The Cardinals and their fans should know this better than anyone. 

In 2006, the Cardinals went 3-9 to end the season to finish with 83 wins. They were picked to lose in the first round by mostly everybody. They went on to win the World Series.

The best teams don't always win and the worst teams don't always lose. That's the crapshoot that is playoffs. 

Cardinals Won 3 of 4 Against the Phillies in September

Why is Ross Gload pictured? Because he started twice in the series.

Games he will start this series? Zero.

Ryan Howard started just one game in the series. It's guaranteed he's starting every game of he playoffs. Brian Schneider and his amazing .502 OPS even started two games.

In spite of these handicaps, the Cardinals only outscored the Phillies by one run. 

Raul Ibanez's 20 HR and 84 RBI

You can even include his 31 doubles in this. But every time I hear someone talk about Raul Ibanez, it usually revolves around his 20-80 season.

What they don't mention is that it's one of the worse 20-80 seasons in recent memory thanks to poor defense and getting out 71 percent of the time. It doesn't appear Charlie Manuel will opt for the better John Mayberry much this postseason. 

Even without Matt Holliday, Allen Craig is an advantage over Ibanez.