Nebraska vs. Wisconsin: Can Either Team Snap the SEC's BCS Title Streak?

It's no exaggeration to say that the road to the BCS title runs through the southeast.

The last five BCS championship games have involved a team from the SEC, and in all five cases that team has walked away a winner.  The Big Ten (twice), Big 12 (twice), and Pac-12 have all given their best shot—three times as the higher rated team going in to the game.

Not only have all five non-SEC teams fallen short, but outside of last year's three point win by Auburn, most of the games haven't even been close.  The SEC put up a combined score of 162 to the challengers' 92 over the five year span, leaving hardly any doubt who the best conference in the land is.

So what are the odds that some team from north of the Mason-Dixon line or west of the Mississippi takes the BCS title this year—especially considering that Alabama is currently ranked in the top three nationally in five major defensive categories, and LSU has beaten three ranked teams (including last year's BCS participant, Oregon) by a combined score of 106 to 54 so far this season?

I'm going to go on record here and say: low.  The odds are low.  Like, really low.

However, there are a few teams out there that we could realistically expect to hang with the SEC's elite in a neutral site game, and two of those teams reside in the Big Ten.

That's right, this Saturday's matchup between Wisconsin and Nebraska has more on the line than just conference pride or a final claim to the color red.  Both these teams recognize that a win under the lights in Madison this weekend could be a step toward an undefeated season and possibly a shot at the SEC's best this January with the crystal football on the line.

So how could Wisconsin and Nebraska find a way to stay competitive with the class of the SEC: LSU and Alabama?  Let's break down each hypothetical matchup.

LSU

Les Miles teams don't always look great, and his end of game management is at the very least baffling, but there is not a team in the country that is better at doing the little things to put itself in the position to win games than LSU.

Just look at the West Virginia game last week.  West Virginia was pinned inside its own ten yard line six times and inside its own 20 yard line 10 times.  This is a testament to LSU's ability on special teams, and it pays off when you look at where LSU was able to start drives.  Eight LSU drives began at or better than the LSU 40 yard line, including two that started at midfield.  On 12 punts in the Oregon and West Virginia games, punter Brad Wing averaged 45 yards per punt, which kept the other team pinned deep and allowed LSU to benefit from good field position.

Special teams plays didn't just happen in the punting game.  When WVU pulled within six points of LSU late in the third quarter, the Tigers responded with a kickoff return touchdown to extend the lead back to double digits and break WVU's spirit.

One last stat to remember in the discussion of hidden yardage: +2.  That is LSU's turnover margin, good for fourth nationally.  Even better?  LSU had just one turnover in the two games against WVU and Oregon, while those teams combined for eight of them.

So how does Wisconsin beat LSU?

Efficiency.

It is no secret that the Badgers have a strong offense, but it is what makes the offense strong that gives Wisconsin an advantage.

Oregon tried to beat LSU with a spread running offense, zone-reading the talented Tiger front seven to death.  That all backfired because the LSU front seven is simply too big, physical and talented to be picked apart.

In some very important ways, the zone-read is like the standard triple option.  The offense reads what the defense is trying to stop, then isolates defenders in an effort to attack where the defense is the weakest.  The zone-read, like the option, works incredibly well at the college level for two reasons.

First, the level of athleticism is lower at the college level than the professional level.  Wonder why the option never really took off in the NFL?  Defenses are too fast and strong, which means that isolating a defender in space is a much dicier proposition.

Second, pro teams are much more disciplined.  The way to beat the zone-read is the same as beating the option.  Stay with your assignments, don't cheat and let everyone do his own job.

LSU's front seven is big and talented enough that, given an entire fall camp to prepare to face even the best zone-read team in the land, that it can hold that team to 95 yards rushing at 3.4 yards per carry.

Wisconsin's rushing offense is built differently.  First, the offensive line is massive, averaging 325 pounds per starter across the front five.  Second, the Badgers have a long history of producing NFL offensive linemen—11 in the last 12 years, including three first rounders.  Wisconsin doesn't rack up rushing yards by isolating defenders in space and letting its athletes run wild, it does so by almost literally picking up the defense and moving it back five yards.

Furthermore, the Badgers are skilled at hanging on the the ball.  Through four games this year Wisconsin has only had two turnovers—both interceptions.  This builds on last year's impressive turnover numbers.  Just 13 interceptions in 13 games, and only two fumbles lost all season.

Very simply, the Badgers are a threat to beat LSU because the rushing offense is better equipped to deal with the talented LSU front seven.  Unlike Oregon and WVU, the Badgers won't be forced into a one-dimensional game plan that is unsustainable over the course of a game*.  The Badgers will be able to run the ball effectively, unlike Oregon or WVU (70 yards, 3.2 ypc).  This will allow the Badgers to put together longer drives and negate the advantage that LSU is able to put up with its excellent punting unit.

LSU forced WVU and Oregon to win the game through the air, and neither team could do it. Wisconsin won't let this happen.  The offense is too efficient and the offensive line too powerful.

*(Both teams passed the ball a great deal against LSU.  WVU did it 65 times to the tune of 463 yards, but the passing game was held in check to a sub-par 7.1 yards per attempt.  Quite simply, LSU let WVU pass the ball for short gains—only one WVU receiver had a reception longer than 20 yards, they kept everything in front of them and waited for mistakes.  That LSU forced four turnovers is either a testament to how good the defense is, or the power of the horseshoe lodged somewhere between Les Miles' kidney and large intestine.  Oregon on the other hand, was forced to pass much more than it was comfortable with.  Darron Thomas is used to exploiting holes in the secondary created by overreacting safeties and linebackers that just spent the last six plays gashed by the zone read.  When forced to throw 54 times (completing 31 for 4.4 ypa), Thomas was inefficient and the Oregon offense was dead in the water.) 

How does Nebraska beat LSU?

The Huskers won't be able to take advantage of the LSU defense in the same way that Wisconsin can.  Playing Taylor Martinez at quarterback is like playing with fire: You can set a lot of stuff on fire, but occasionally you are going to get burned.

Martinez and the Nebraska offense are great on the ground but suspect through the air, and the turnover numbers are moot.  Nebraska will give the ball away (six turnovers so far this year).  If Nebraska tries to focus on the run it won't be nearly as effective as it can against teams like Washington.  The run game is good enough to produce, but not good enough for a shootout against a dominant defense.

However, if there is one thing Nebraska can do, it is try to out-LSU LSU.

It shows that Bo Pelini spent time working under Les Miles.  Both love fast, aggressive defenses; both struggle to build dominant offenses at their respective programs and both might be clinically insane.

However, both can still coach football with the best of them.

Nebraska is cut from the same cloth as LSU.  Kickoff returns?  Nebraska is currently leading the country with an average of 35 yards per return.  Punting?  Nebraska is 29th nationally in net punting and 21st in punt return average.  Turnover margin?  Nebraska currently breaks even with the same amount of giveaways as takeaways.  

Nebraska is a threat to beat LSU because Nebraska's attention to detail on special teams negates the advantages in field position that the Tigers use so effectively.  Nebraska is just as good as LSU in finding "hidden yards" in games, and thus it distills the game down to a matchup of run heavy offenses against strong defenses.

Alabama

The Crimson Tide are quite simply the most effective defensive team in the country.  What was a top five defensive unit last year returns nine starters this year and has already claimed the title of "most feared defense" for 2011.  Alabama is ranked third in the nation in both pass and rush yardage defense, while ranking second in pass eff. defense, total defense and scoring defense.  If you are unclear on it, yeah, those are the five most important statistical categories on defense.

We could talk all day about the Crimson Tide defense, but the fact of the matter is it won't get us very far.  No team is going to dominant the Tide.  There are yards to be had for balanced, efficient offenses (Wisconsin), or focused specialized offenses (Nebraska), but it takes a sustained effort and very simply, the offenses' A+ game.  This should be very clearly stated: If you don't play your best offensive game of the year against Alabama, you don't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning and nothing past this matters.

If you can score 20 points against the Tide, it is an exceptionally good day.  However, there is one kink in Nick Saban's plans for world domination, and this is an advantage that gives both Nebraska and Wisconsin a legitimate chance against Alabama.

Alabama's offense struggles to move the ball through the air.

Right now the Tide are ranked 62nd nationally in pass efficiency.  Over the first few weeks of the season a quarterback controversy raged in Tuscaloosa.  Phillip Sims and AJ McCarron battled for for the starting job, and only recently did McCarron solidify himself on the top of the depth chart.

Even so, McCarron is still 44th nationally in pass efficiency right now and he has yet to face anything more than an average pass defense*, and against a pretty easy string of defenses he has done just fine—66 percent completion and four touchdowns to two interceptions.

*(Stat geeks will point out that Penn State is rated seventh nationally in both pass eff. and pass yardage defense.  I will point out to those stat geeks that PSU put up those numbers against Indiana State (FCS), Temple (112th nationally in pass offense), and EMU (117th nationally in pass offense).  I don't know the numbers, but I would be shocked if anyone on the schedule tried more than 20 passes against the Nittany Lions.  It is by this same logic that I don't recognize MSU's standing as the number one team in total defense thus far.  Let's get some real games in first.  That is all.)

One big problem looming for the future isn't McCarron's lack of elite production—nobody ever confused Greg McElroy with Joe Montana—it is the receiving corps lack of an elite target.  With the departure of Julio Jones to the NFL, the Tide lost the one player it had that was an unstoppable downfield threat.

Marquis Maze is still around, but the diminutive speedster isn't the guy you send one on one to the corner of the end zone.  What is more troubling is that behind Maze, running back Trent Richardson is the second leading receiver on the team.  That right there tells you all you need to know about Alabama's downfield passing threat, or lack thereof.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the forced redshirt of incoming transfer Duron Carter—the downfield threat the Tide so desperately need—has hampered the ability of Alabama to field a dangerous passing offense.

This is the kind of advantage that Wisconsin and Nebraska could use to pull an upset over the Tide.

While Alabama's rushing offense is still as strong as ever thanks to Trent Richardson, it is hard to win close games if you can't pass the ball downfield effectively.  Dink and dunks move the ball, but long touchdown passes swing momentum wildly in the favor of the team that throws them.

It is still too early to tell just how good Nebraska and Wisconsin are defensively, but early returns point to both being at the very least above-average units.  Nebraska has possibly the most defensive star power in the conference with Jared Crick, Levonte David and Alfonso Dennard.  Wisconsin on the other hand looks to have much the same kind of defense it did last year: an effective bend-but-don't-break unit capable of slowing opposing offenses down and forcing punts to get the ball back in the hands of the Badger offense.

While Alabama is capable of gaining yards on the ground, the fact that the Crimson Tide don't have a legitimate downfield passing threat could hurt the Tide in close games, and both Wisconsin and Nebraska are good enough to play Bama close and use this to their advantage.

Will either Big Ten team get a crack at the SEC's best?  That is tough to say.  The Big Ten schedule is fraught with tough games, and the newly instituted Big Ten Championship game is another potential road block.  Not to mention the challenge presented by a team like Oklahoma or Stanford in the national polls.

At this point, the Badgers and Huskers have to focus on one thing: winning the Big Ten, and let the rest sort itself out.

All that starts Saturday at 8PM.