Big Ten Week 5 Saturday Selections and Keys to the Game

Last weekend, the sleeper schedule looked like a clean sweep on paper, but Minnesota and Indiana pushed to new lows with disappointing losses to North Texas and North Dakota State. These losses undermined my hopes for a final double-digit-win weekend, as now conference play begins and lowers the number of games.

However, the 8–2 finish puts the season record at 36–10, which is respectable but far from perfect. Now the competition ramps up in conference play, also increasing the difficulty of these picks. However, this could not be a more enjoyable challenge.

This week in the Big Ten features three cross-division battles with seemingly evenly–matched teams (Nebraska vs. Wisconsin, Michigan State vs. Ohio State, Northwestern vs. Illinois). The relative strength of the Leaders and the Legends will become clearer after this weekend. Here are the selections and the keys to all six games this weekend:

Minnesota at Michigan

Although this game looked like a battle for the bottom of the Legends Division coming into the season, Brady Hoke has the Wolverines in a much better place than Jerry Kill has the Golden Gophers after four games. Michigan completed a sweep of non–conference play by surviving a trap game against San Diego State, while Minnesota put up another clunker at home against a team from the Dakotas.

Michigan should try to establish the passing game while they still have a chance, as Minnesota has not been solid in the defensive backfield. Also, Denard Robinson is falling into the same trap of being too much of the offense once again like the past two seasons.

Minnesota was also supposed to have an athletic dynamic quarterback, but MarQueis Gray has lost his job to freshman quarterback Max Shortell, at least partially. Kill will need to stay with the hot hand and hope that someone plays consistently against a Wolverines defense that fails to generate much pass rush.

The key to the game will be whether Michigan turns the ball over with two or more interceptions. If so, then Minnesota may load up against the run and make this game highly interesting. In the Big House though, the Wolverines should keep the Little Brown Jug.

Michigan wins by 17.

Penn State at Indiana

Indiana has struggled early in games and put itself in holes that were not small enough to climb out of against Ball State, Virginia, and North Texas. Now the Nittany Lions come to town with a 14–0 record in the series between the two teams.

Penn State has still not solved the quarterback conundrum, but that is not likely to change anytime soon. Joe Paterno is comfortable riding the hot hand, whether it be Rob Bolden or Matt McGloin. Neither will need to carry much of the load with Silas Redd facing the weakest run defense he will see in conference play.

Despite critical injuries to top linebacker Michael Mauti and top cornerback D'Anton Lynn last week, the Nittany Lions remain strong on the defensive line. As long as Indiana cannot exploit weaknesses with the passing game, the defensive front should dominate the game.

The key to the game is whether the Hoosiers can play better on both the offensive and defensive lines. Penn State is a vulnerable team if an opponent can dominate the line of scrimmage, but Indiana does not appear to have the talent to do that.

Penn State wins by 23.

Northwestern at Illinois

Illinois comes into this game with the first 4–0 start in 60 years, but Northwestern may be riding a higher wave of good feelings thanks to the return of all-conference quarterback Dan Persa from the torn ACL that held him out of this rivalry game last season. Persa has been given four weeks more than expected to fully recover, and he will be tested in this game.

Illinois has used a heavy blitz and pass rush attack to force mistakes and win the last two games. The strategy will be the same to see if Persa really is back to 100 percent in his first start. Northwestern did not turn the ball over except for one fluke play against Boston College, so the Illini defense may find it difficult to force the turnovers critical to their success.

The Wildcats will also be hoping for turnovers, as the defensive line and linebackers showed a huge weakness against the one-dimensional running attack of Army two weeks ago. Illini quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase has also not been prone to mistakes despite taking some big hits in the running game.

The key to the game will be whether Persa can handle the pressure and throw all over the Illini defense without forcing himself into turnovers. Illinois will put up some points with the running game, and Persa will make a critical mistake late that will seal the victory for Illinois.

Illinois wins by 6.

Michigan State at Ohio State

These two teams pose more questions than answers after four weeks of the season, and this may be an elimination game for the loser as both have brutal October schedules featuring Wisconsin, Nebraska, and a currently undefeated team (MSU has Michigan, OSU has Illinois).

Both teams were absolutely throttled in their one big out-of-conference road game, but both still stand at 3–1 and have a chance to be right in the mix for the conference title.

Michigan State has the best defense statistically in the country, but those numbers were mostly racked up against inferior competition.

Ohio State has zero passing game with freshman quarterback Braxton Miller, but the running game is a true threat, with Miller breaking off runs on many pass plays to go with the runs of Jordan Hall and Carlos Hyde.

Ohio State plays well at home, and the crowd will play a big role in keeping Miller's spirits up if this game gets tough late.

Michigan State has been too reliant on the passing game and Kirk Cousins, as they were completely shut down by the Notre Dame defense.

Ohio State is even better against the run despite being gashed early against Miami. Thus, look for the young Ohio State defensive backfield to be tested often in this game.

The key to this game will be whether Michigan State can limit the mistakes that turned a winnable game at South Bend into a blowout loss.

The Spartans probably come into this game as a legitimate favorite, but penalties and special teams breakdowns will not be possible if Michigan State wants to win in Columbus for the first time in 13 seasons.

Michigan State wins by 3.

Notre Dame at Purdue

Speaking of the Fighting Irish, Notre Dame finishes up the usual trio of Big Ten games with a game at West Lafayette this weekend.

Purdue has struggled through a crazy three non–conference games to this point, and Notre Dame is the hardest test of all before conference play. Will the Boilermakers add some spice to this neighbor rivalry that will continue for the next 10 years?

Notre Dame has found a quarterback in Tommy Rees, and Rees showed a lot of growth in surviving a bad first three quarters against Pittsburgh to lead ND back to the win.

Barring a total collapse of the defense against Michigan, the Irish would have at least three wins now with a chance at a BCS bowl. However, the offense has players their way out of the national elite with too many turnovers.

Purdue will be hoping for more of the same from the Irish offense, while also trying to get their own offense to roll without turning the ball over. Robert Marve has looked good at quarterback thus far, but Danny Hope has made it clear that Caleb Terbush is still going to get a majority of the snaps at quarterback for now.

It seems like every other team in the conference is struggling with two quarterbacks, but perhaps Purdue can make it work against the Irish.

The key to the game is turnovers. Purdue is the weakest team Notre Dame has played, and Brian Kelly may need to turn a whole new shade of purple if the Irish can turn the ball over enough to let Purdue win. The game is away from South Bend, which gives Purdue a puncher's chance, but that appears to be all.

Notre Dame wins by 18.

Nebraska at Wisconsin

Although Barry Alvarez was not able to grab Nebraska as a permanent opponent or protected rival, the consolation prize from Jim Delany was to host Nebraska in their first Big Ten game.

As it turns out, that is more than just a consolation prize, as this looks like the biggest regular season game this year and perhaps the biggest in three or four years.

With Ohio State and Michigan State struggling and Illinois and Michigan not yet proven, these two teams must carry the banner for the conference on Saturday night.

Wisconsin has dominated four very bad teams thus far, allowing quarterback Russell Wilson to enter the Heisman Trophy race. Now that Big Ten play is here, expect running backs James White and Montee Ball to carry more of the load behind the zone blocking scheme.

Nebraska will finally have their full complement of top defensive players playing at once, and it will be interesting to watch how Jared Crick and the defensive linemen handle the blocking schemes of Wisconsin.

Nebraska also has a dynamic quarterback in Taylor Martinez, but the Cornhuskers have struggled to find run-pass balance against a moderately difficult schedule. Rex Burkhead and Martinez are looking solid in the running game, but teams like the Badgers will shut that down and force Nebraska to win with the passing game.

Nebraska has faced a little adversity on the road this season, but a slow start against a fired-up Badgers team will be lethal.

The key to the game will be whether Martinez finds a way to pass the ball and exploit the weak Wisconsin defensive backfield. Although Bo Pelini will want to run the ball to set up the pass, perhaps the best hope for a victory would be to bomb away and become a stereotypical Big 12 type of team in the Big Ten.

That style of play falls outside Nebraska's wheelhouse, so they will not start successfully in the Big Ten.

Wisconsin wins by 10.

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The Leaders Division has the advantage in the big three games by hosting all three. However, the Legends should be able to steal at least one win to prove that competitive balance is not just a hypothetical phrase to throw against the wall.

The pecking order in the Big Ten will be much more clear as the day progresses Saturday, and I look forward to seeing the readers again next week for another big slate of games.