Texas Faces Long Road in Big 12 Conference Play as Rivals Improve

In many places that are not Austin, Texas, a lot of football watchers honestly believed that Texas' nightmare 2010 was just an aberration.  Give Mack Brown some fresh blood and new talent and the Longhorns would be near the top of the heap once this season began.  Based on the 'Horns underwhelming 3-0 start, even those bleed burnt orange might have to wonder if that thinking is too optimistic.

Despite the fact that the 'Horns are 3-0 and ranked 17 heading into conference play, they really haven't impressed much with their play.  That's understandable, since Brown has had to replace two coordinators and a lot of talent.  However, as they head into conference play this week at Iowa State, you have to wonder if this game will be one of only a few conference wins this year.

The other schools in the Big 12 are playing very well, with Oklahoma (2), Oklahoma State (5), Baylor (15) and Texas A&M (14) all ranked.  However, it's not just these four that are putting up better numbers than Texas.  And some of the unranked teams are looking right now like they're ready to give the 'Horns fits.

Their passing game has been respectable, putting up more than 200 yards per game despite an unsettled quarterback situation that seems to be resolving itself. However, early on it was made clear that the strongest part of Texas' offense is its running game.  It's ranked 21st among FBS teams, averaging 226 yards per game.  

But look down the road.  After Iowa State, the Longhorns take on Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, both of which boast solid defense and high-powered offenses.  They've also been able to avoid the off-field issues related to A&M's departure to the SEC.  Those seemed to focus as much on Texas and the Longhorn Network as they did on A&M and its desire to upgrade all of its athletic programs. 

Once the 'Horns deal with Iowa State and the two Oklahoma teams they hit what should be considered the easiest part of the schedule, facing Kansas and Texas Tech, both of which are home games.

Then comes what can best be described as a dogfight for a winning season.  From Nov. 12 through Dec. 3 the Longhorns play Missouri, Kansas State and A&M before finishing with Baylor.  Those last two games on both on the road and could be the difference between a winning and losing and bowl eligibility.

Missouri and Kansas State are two of the aforementioned unranked teams that could pose a challenge.  They both boast strong run defenses, allowing 87 and 89 yards per game respectively.  Mizzou's run defense is ranked 20th in FBS with the Wildcats right behind them.  Neither game is going to be a pushover.

Then comes what may be the last Texas-Texas A&M game ever.  The Aggies' departure to the SEC seems to be about them having a way to not play second fiddle to Texas any more.  You can bet Mike Sherman is going to put a well-motivated team out there and Kyle Field is going to be the least hospitable place the Longhorns visit this year.

Finally, the Baylor game features a road match against another team that has been under Texas' thumb for a long time and is finally getting its due in terms of attracting talent and getting results.  That the Bears' rise comes at a down time for the Longhorns has not gone unnoticed in Waco, and Baylor knows that will be a true statement game for it.

It's not hard to see Texas going 3-6 in conference play.  Even with that, its 3-0 start may get it to a minor bowl.  But after last season's mess it will not please the Texas faithful.  Mack Brown is smart enough to realize that without a better result he will have the hottest seat in college football.