NFL Week 4: Picks and Analysis

Week 3 of the 2011-2012 NFL season was a bit of strange one.

The Buffalo Bills beat the New England Patriots for the first time in seemingly forever (was anyone else afraid we were going to have another "Wide Left" when that last field goal went up?), countless near-upsets and a few real upsets.

And to cap it off, Michael Vick went down with another injury.

All those upsets left me sitting with a somewhat respectable 9-7 record in my Week 3 picks. That would've won me the NFC West crown last year, but I'm hoping to do a little better in Week 4.

Who's going to beat who this Sunday? Read on to find out.

Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears

Cam Newton finally got his first win in the NFL, but it came during a heavy rain that made it very difficult for the rookie to do much in the passing game. Luckily, Maurice Jones-Drew was able to pick up the slack and get 122 yards rushing.

He's going to need to have a similar game this week, because Chicago's defense is generally tough for rookie quarterbacks to figure out, especially with Julius Peppers breathing down their necks.

Brian Urlacher is going to have to have a big game covering Greg Olsen, who will be looking to get some revenge after the Bears traded him this past offseason.

The job seems to be fairly simple for the Bears offense—protect the quarterback. Jay Cutler is getting absolutely destroyed in the backfield, and even though Carolina doesn't boast the best pass rush, his line has to do something different to keep him upright.

Matt Forte must rush the ball effectively after only gaining two yards last week. If he can't take some pressure off Cutler, the Panthers will be able to pin their ears back and come after the QB on every play.

Generally in a game between two teams that are pretty even I'd go with the home team. However, the Bears cannot protect Jay Cutler, and that worries me with Matt Forte being so ineffective in the rushing game.

Look for this to be a low-scoring game as the Bears punt a lot and Cam Newton gets intercepted at least twice. In the end I'm going with my gut and giving the win to the Panthers.

WINNER: Carolina Panthers

Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Bills were finally able to snap a 15-game losing streak against the Patriots last week. That's almost eight years without a win against a hated division rival. They did so behind the solid play of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tom Brady's four interceptions.

Fitzpatrick, wide receiver Steve Johnson, and running back Fred Jackson have turned this Bills team into one of the more potent offenses in the League, averaging 37.7 points per game. However, that offense is going to be challenged this week against a stout Cincinnati Bengals defense (although, to be fair, the Bengals haven't exactly faced the best competition so far). 

The Bengals' offense hasn't been great as it goes through rookie QB Andy Dalton's growing pains. Thankfully, it looks like they'll get at least one more week from Cedric Benson before he has to serve a three game suspension.

Plus, the Bills defense isn't exactly putting the fear of God into their opponents. They are currently giving up almost 400 yards per game.

This is a meeting of a good offense and a good defense, so something's going to have to give. I'm thinking that the Bills have seen the better opponents, which means their statistics are a little more real.

The Bengals have yet to face an actual contender this year, so expect the Bills to expose a few holes in their highly-ranked defense.

WINNER: Buffalo Bills 

Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns

Matt Hasselbeck has continuously played well this year, finding receivers Kenny Britt and Nate Washington for big plays throughout this young season. Their biggest problem on offense has been the running of Chris Johnson.

Apparently becoming the one of highest-paid running backs in the NFL means that you can then become one of the worst running backs in the League.

The Titans currently have the league's worst rushing offense, and Johnson will have to turn it around fast if he plans to earn that paycheck. This could be the week to do it, as the Browns have one of the worst rush defenses in the League. He has to prove himself this week with at least one big run.

Speaking of running backs, it's still up in the air as to whether Peyton Hillis will play for the Browns or not this week. It looks as if the Madden Curse has (kind of) struck again, in the form of strep throat.

If he can't play, Colt McCoy will have another good game and the pass defense will keep the game close. If Hillis can go, it likely won't mean too much.

This is a team that wins close games because of its exceptional pass defense. Whether it's Hillis or Montario Hardesty starting they just need to play smart and take care of the ball, giving them a good chance to win a close battle.

This game comes down to whether you think the Titans' passing offense is better than the Browns' passing defense. If the Browns can keep the Titans under 17 points they have a solid shot at winning.

That said, the Titans also boast a great defense, so even a great showing from the Browns defense might not be enough to give them another win.

In the end, I like the Titans' defense more than that of the Browns, and think Chris Johnson might finally show why he gets paid so much.

WINNER: Tennessee Titans

Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys

The Detroit Lions showed last week how far they've come as a team.

Down 20-0 against the Vikings at halftime, Detroit was able to come out in the second half and outscore the Vikings 26-3 to win the game.

The connection between quarterback Matthew Stafford and receiver Calvin Johnson has been electric this year. The two have hooked up for six of Stafford's nine touchdowns so far.

Five other receivers also have over 140 yards receiving, which means it's very difficult for defenses to lock down on one receiver—a big problem in past years. They will face a tough test against a Dallas defense that has been the best so far this year at terrorizing quarterbacks.

Dallas' offense also likes to air it out and will likely have difficulties containing the Lions front four on passing downs.

In this regard, both teams are astonishingly alike, but the Cowboys do have one advantage. The Lions currently boast a bottom-tier run defense and, while Dallas doesn't have a great rushing attack, they could look to exploit that.

If Felix Jones can muster a good game, he will keep the Lions defense from going all-out on Tony Romo, which might give the Cowboys the time they need to get their potent passing attack going.

These two teams really do look fairly similar on paper.

Both have top-five passing offenses, both can get after the quarterback, and neither have been able to run the ball effectively this year. I'm going to go with the Lions purely because the Cowboys are without their best receiver, while the Lions still have Calvin Johnson to bail them out.

WINNER: Detroit Lions

Minnesota Vikings @ Kansas City Chiefs

In back-to-back weeks the Minnesota Vikings have been up by at least 17 points going into halftime only to give up that lead in the second half and lose the game.

It's not difficult to figure out what's wrong on offense.

Donovan McNabb has been ineffective all season. He has one of the best running backs in the game playing great and that should result in a soft secondaries for McNabb to tear up.

However, he's only been able to post 478 yards and two touchdowns through the air. That's just not going to cut it, no matter how well Adrian Peterson plays.

The Chiefs might have a better reason for being 0-3, as their star running back Jamaal Charles tore his ACL and will likely be out for the rest of the year. That said, Matt Cassel has been just as bad as McNabb and, without Charles, I can't see it getting better anytime soon.

The Chiefs could be in for another long day because their terrible rush defense has to go up against the juggernaut that is Peterson.

If the Vikings can't find a way to win this week, they might not win another game all season. I feel bad for Chiefs fans because I thought they were going to be a solid team this year, but it's hard to replace a player like Jamaal Charles.

Look for Adrian Peterson to have his best game of the year as the Vikings pull out a close win in Kansas City.

WINNER: Minnesota Vikings

Washington Redskins @ St. Louis Rams

The Redskins have one of the most well-balanced teams in the NFL right now. They rank 15th or higher in almost every significant offensive and defensive statistic.

They were unable to stay undefeated last week against the Cowboys, but they still played pretty well, especially on defense.

The offense has played surprisingly well so far. I, for one, can't believe that Rex Grossman seems to be a good quarterback right now. Each week I keep waiting to see him stumble and, while last week wasn't great, he keeps playing solidly. Only time will tell if he can keep it up.

I honestly thought the Rams would be much better this year.

Sam Bradford doesn't really have anyone to throw to and that's hurt the team quite a bit, but the biggest problem is that they can't put up any points. Bradford only has two touchdowns on the year, and the team's top runners have just one touchdown between them.

It looks like it's going to be another tough week for this offense as they go up against one of the NFL's best defenses. 

Even though I'm still not sure if the Redskins are an actual division contender, I can't see them losing to the Rams. As I said, Sam Bradford doesn't have a reliable receiver yet, and until that changes, it's very hard to pick them to win a game. 

WINNER: Washington Redskins

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles

It's a testament to how well the 49ers defense is playing that they hold a 2-1 record and the Cowboys needed an overtime field goal to hand them that loss.

Their offense has been dreadful so far, as Alex Smith hasn't been able to do anything and Frank Gore is averaging 2.5 yards per carry. That's not going to scare anybody.

The Eagles haven't quite been the superstar team they were billed to be, but their passing defense is exceptional, and they will likely force Smith into numerous bad decisions.

Another week, and another Michael Vick injury. This time it was an injured hand that sidelined Vick and forced Andy Reid to throw Mike Kafka onto the field.

Last week Kafka played fairly well, but this week was a different story as he tossed two interceptions in his seven passes. Vick says he's 100 percent playing this week and, if that's true, the Eagles should have a good chance at a victory.

Even without Vick, I think the Eagles could still win. The 49ers' offense is terrible and I think the Eagles' defense could beat this team with me starting at quarterback (Author's note: I make Mike Kafka look like Peyton Manning).

The 49ers defense will try and keep it close, but I can't see Alex Smith making enough positive plays to win.

WINNER: Philadelphia Eagles

New Orleans Saints @ Jacksonville Jaguars

The Saints' passing attack is punishing opponents exactly like one would expect with Drew Brees leading the attack.

The Jags have one of the best defenses in the league statistically and are giving up just under 200 yards per game passing.

Something's going to have to change this week, and I wouldn't put my money against Brees.

If the Saints' running backs can help out like they have been so far this year—both Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas have over 100 yards on the season—then the Jags could be in for a long day.

Blaine Gabbert made his rookie debut last week in a loss to the Panthers. He played okay, considering the team was playing in such poor conditions.

This team is still one that relies on the running game to be successful. If Gabbert limits his turnovers and Maurice Jones-Drew is able to rack up yards, the Jags could win this game. 

It's really going to come down to how well the Jags can contain Brees and company. They haven't given up more than 16 points yet this season, while the Saints have yet to put up less than 30 points.

In a defensive battle I would pick the Jags, but I have a feeling the Saints' defense will capitalize on a few Blaine Gabbert mistakes and get Brees the ball to put up points.

WINNER: New Orleans Saints

Pittsburg Steelers @ Houston Texans

Just one week after Pittsburgh's defense blanked the lowly Seahawks, they gave up 20 points to the Peyton Manning-less Colts.

Of course, you can't really put all of the blame on the defense because Ben Roethlisberger had three total turnovers. That means Big Ben currently has eight turnovers compared to only three touchdowns—not exactly the numbers you'd expect from someone widely considered to be a top-10 quarterback.

Luckily for him, the defense might just be the best in the league and he doesn't have to play quite as well to win as other quarterbacks around the league.

Coming into last week, the Houston Texans also boasted one of the best defenses in the NFL.

Then they ran into the offensive juggernaut that is Drew Brees and gave up 40 points in a heartbreaking loss. Even with that lackluster effort they were still in the game because of how strong their offense is performing.

Ben Tate has stepped in for Arian Foster and is among league leaders in almost every rushing category. Add to that one of the most potent QB-WR duos in the league in Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson and you have one of the most well-rounded offenses in the NFL.

I have to think that the Texans' defemse will come back ready to prove themselves after playing so badly last week, and will be looking to capitalize on any mistakes Ben Roethlisberger makes. That said, it's extremely tough for any offense to play well against the Steelers' attacking squad.

When the game is this close I usually go with the home team, and that's exactly what I'm doing here.

WINNER: Houston Texans 

New York Giants @ Arizona Cardinals

Last week, Eli Manning had one of the best games of his life and the banged-up Giants were able to pull out a win against the Vick-less Eagles. I don't think I'm the only one that was a little surprised at the outcome given how many key players have already gone down for New York.

That said, this team as a whole showed a lot of resolve last week and it's going to be hard to pick against them, especially if guys like Justin Tuck and Mario Manningham are able to come back soon.

If the Giants game surprised me, then the Cardinals' loss to the Seahawks blew my mind.

This is a team with a solid quarterback, one of the best wide receivers in the game and an average running game. Sadly, the defense gives up almost 400 yards per game.

They have been able to hold teams under 20 points a game, but if the defense can't stop the ball it's difficult for an offense to make plays and put up points. 

Much like the Steelers-Texans game, this one is difficult for me to pick.

On one hand, I went against the Giants last week because of injuries and they proved me wrong. On the other hand, I'm a big believer in this Cardinals offense, even after their lackluster scoring effort last week.

I've been going back and forth on this one for quite awhile so I'm going to make this pick in the moment.

WINNER: New York Giants 

Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks

The Atlanta Falcons are quickly becoming the most difficult team for me to read on a weekly basis.

On paper, they should be a dominant squad. They have an excellent quarterback, a stud running back, an all-time great tight end, one of the best wide receivers in football, a dominating pass rusher and a solid back seven.

All that should add up to more than a 1-2 record, but so far it hasn't. Will this be the week in which we finally see exactly what this team is made of?

Fact: Tarvaris Jackson has more passing yards than Donovan McNabb.

Now, I'm not saying the Vikings made a mistake, because it's not like either quarterback has been better than the other, but McNabb sure doesn't look like an upgrade yet.

After being absolutely dreadful against the 49ers and the Steelers in the first two weeks, the Seahawks were able to pull out a surprising win against the Cardinals last week. Could they surprise us again and beat another team with a bird for a mascot?

The short is answer is no, probably not.

This Falcons team is going to turn it around sooner rather than later and move to the contender status many gave them entering the season. The offense is too good and too balanced to stay mediocre for long and if there was ever a week for this team to get back on track it's against the Seahawks.

WINNER: Atlanta Falcons

Denver Broncos @ Green Bay Packers

So far this year, the Denver Broncos haven't looked too terrible. Kyle Orton has shown that he can at least run the offense, and while the defense isn't up to the Pittsburgh Steelers' level, it's still been performing pretty well.

However, the running game is terrible, and while Orton's play has improved a bit from week to week, he's not playing well enough to make up for it. This won't be the week in which that's finally corrected either, as Green Bay boasts the best rush defense in the league.

Speaking of the Packers, I foolishly picked against them last week on the road. The defense was in Jay Cutler's face all day and Jermichael Finley had a career day, catching three touchdown passes from the always excellent Aaron Rodgers.

They could be tested this week by the Broncos defense, which is well-balanced and has done a great job at keeping the team in every game so far.

After messing up last week, I can't pick against the Pack, especially at home. The Broncos might hold Rodgers and company to under 20 points, but their offense still won't be able to keep up. 

WINNER: Green Bay Packers

New England Patriots @ Oakland Raiders

I think I can safely say that the majority of America was stunned when the Patriots lost last week against the Buffalo Bills.

No one was more stunned than Tom Brady, who threw four interceptions to compliment his four touchdowns. You can bet he'll be looking to get back to his usual efficient self.

Helping him along the way will be Wes Welker, who looks to be well on his way to his best season ever. This dynamic duo must be licking their chops, seeing as they're going against one of the league's worst passing defenses.

It could be a long day for the Raiders' secondary if the pass rush doesn't get to Brady consistently.

The Patriots have the best passing offense in the NFL, but the Raiders boast the best rushing attack.

Darren McFadden has been stellar so far after posting a solid season in 2010. He's leading the NFL in rushing and already has three touchdowns (he had seven all of last year). If he has another big day and opens things up for Jason Campbell, they might just have a chance at upsetting the Patriots.

I've learned during my time as an NFL fan to never bet against an angry Tom Brady. After last week's loss to the Bills, Brady is sure to be ready to show that his team is still the best in the league, regardless of what happened in Week 3.

Look for the Patriots' offense to have a huge day through the air and come out on top.

WINNER: New England Patriots

Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers

The Miami Dolphins might be the worst team in the NFL right now.

They're getting a run for their money from the Chiefs, but I think I have more faith in Matt Cassel than Chad Henne. Henne's numbers aren't too terrible because of a big game against the Patriots, but other than that he's been pedestrian at best.

The rushing attack has been able to gain yards, but leading rusher Daniel Thomas has yet to get in the end zone. The offense's biggest problem is that they just can't seem to score, and until that changes, I'll probably keep betting against them.

I don't think we quite know what this Chargers team is yet.

Yes, they're 2-1, but those victories have come against the Vikings and the Chiefs. The loss was against the Patriots and, while they played okay, they didn't look like they were in the Pats league yet.

That said, Philip Rivers is a fantasy superstar and this team is going to put up points through the air. The question is if they can score enough points or not to win football games.

I have no reason to believe the Dolphins will travel across the country and upset the Chargers.

They have shown a few bright spots in their first three games, but not enough to convince they can beat anything but bottom tier teams. Look for Rivers to have a huge day and make fantasy owners everywhere happy.

WINNER: San Diego Chargers

New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens

The New York Jets suffered a tough loss last week against the Raiders, but that loss doesn't really hurt them.

Moving forward I think this team will continue to get better, especially if QB Mark Sanchez and new wide receiver Plaxico Burress can build upon the big play dynamic they've established early in the season.

They will need some help from the running game, which has been terrible. However, don't expect to see Shonn Greene turn his season around against the Ravens this week, because that squad is one of the best in the league at stopping the run.

Speaking of that Baltimore squad, their offense is one of the more balanced you'll see on Sundays. Joe Flacco had an ineffective game against the Titans two weeks ago, but has made up for it with huge performances in two Ravens' wins.

Ray Rice and Ricky Williams are both averaging over five yards per carry and Rice has been able to add two receiving touchdowns. The Jets really need David Harris and Antonio Cromartie to play this weekend or the defense could be overwhelmed.

Like I said, I think this Jets team is going to have a good year, but they're a little banged up right now and having to go on the road for the second week in a row. Plus, there's a crucial game against New England that's looming next week.

All these things are going to add up to a tough game for New York and a good chance for the Ravens to pick up a win against a quality opponent.

WINNER: Baltimore Ravens

Indianapolis Colts @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I don't think anyone in the world could have predicted that the Colts would only lose by three points to the Pittsburgh Steelers. This is a team that got destroyed by the Houston Texans and then lost to the Cleveland Browns at home.

However, something clicked last week, and the Colts got huge days from two key players in their close loss. Joseph Addai had his best game since October of last year and Pierre Garcon had an 82-yard performance.

The team is hoping to get Kerry Collins back, but with him questionable it could be up to Curtis Painter to lead them into Sundays game. All I can say is, "Good luck."

Statistically, this Buccaneers team is barely even average, but they do something very important—they keep games close.

They have yet to lose or win a game by more than seven points and, while it's a little concerning that they almost lost to the winless Vikings, this is a young team that has lots of room to improve as the season goes on.

Both quarterback Josh Freeman and running back LeGarrette Blount are playing solidly and will be looking to improve their stats against a weaker Colts team.

While I admire the Colts' inspired play last week against a much better Steelers team, I can't see them playing that well on the road in Tampa. Look for the Colts to fall back down to earth while the Bucs to play their best offensive game of the season and finally win a game by more than four points.

WINNER: Tampa Bay Buccaneers