Notre Dame Football: Tommy Rees Is Not the Answer Part II

When I wrote an article saying Tommy Rees is not the answer at QB, I got exactly what I thought would happen in reply:

You’re right Dan, Tommy is not that good, pull him, Crist is better.

You’re right Dan, Tommy is not that  good, pull him, Crist struggles, but he should play.

You’re right Dan, Tommy is not that  good, pull him, Golson/Hendrix should play.

You’re right Dan, Tommy is not that  good, but we have no other option.

You’re right Dan, Tommy is not that  good, but he is a winner, and we have no other option.

You’re wrong Dan, Tommy will be pretty damn good, and we have no other option.

You’re wrong Dan, Tommy is pretty damn good, and we have no other option.

You’re wrong Dan, Tommy is pretty damn good, he’s learning and he’ll be another great QB just like Quinn and Clausen.

You’re wrong Dan, Tommy is great, he is the next coming of Jesus Christ.

Of course, there was also the standard sprinkling of the usual Pom Pom section: “He’s a great kid, we should support him, GO ND!!!” and the ever-present PC police whining “How dare you criticize an 18 year old you pathetic piece of garbage.”

Since the comments became redundant and somewhat heated when I actually went to work for eight hours (One complete jackoff demanded I recant the article and write another in support of his beloved Tommy—I am not sure what the penalty is if I don’t meet his “demand,” but I am curious), I am going to explain the reasoning for my points, with enough detail to hopefully address all of the above positions.

If you want to quit pounding the table and want a real answer why Tommy Rees is not the answer, this is my answer.

Rees vs. Crist

I know that for much of the world, the second string QB is the most popular guy on the team, and that popularity skyrockets when the starter struggles. With Crist there is more to it than that.

Despite his inconsistency, Crist has excelled at times on a college football field. On paper, Crist’s numbers were very similar to Rees’, a little better if you toss in the turnovers Rees generates. Even with two knee surgeries, Crist is still more mobile than Rees, and there is no question he has a cannon that can make all the throws.

The problem has always been that Crist hesitates, and we all know, “…he who hesitates in Kelly’s system is lost.” For Crist that seems to be “lost forever.”

It is very true that the team has struggled to put points up with Crist on the field, and that Kelly has decided to go with Rees despite his constant mistakes and limited athleticism if only to get more production in the short run. Frankly, at this point I am indifferent to this debate only because I think Crist’s superior athletic ability would be offset by his lack of continued development and loss of confidence, even if there is a bigger upside.

Crist will play football for ND the day Rees goes down holding his knee, or never.

It is simply my opinion that handled differently Crist’s skills would have been refined and valuable had Kelly worked through it and handled it better—jerking a starter in the opener at halftime with a running back fumbling at the one and two bad drops by his receivers to sustain drives is a bush-league move. Kelly himself had spring and fall to sort out who was better and started Crist as his best chance to win going into the season, and to blow that off after 30 minutes of football reeks of Kelly’s desperation to win now.

It has also compromised ND’s long term goal of competing for a BCS title.

With Tommy getting all the reps and the playing time since Game 1, I agree that Crist’s ship has probably sailed, but that doesn’t make Rees the answer.

Rees vs. Hendrix/Golson

I won’t belabor this one, sticking in a QB without a single college snap at this juncture is not going to get the best production on the field, and it’s silly to think otherwise.

It is also not advisable to burn Golson’s redshirt year when he has a lot of talent but needs to bulk up to take the beating of running against major college competition. Although, if he can really play, he should play in some package and right now.

I am not suggesting either of these players is a savior that can step in and make Kelly’s offense run like a well-oiled machine, but Kelly had five games last year to work Hendrix into the mix with some live game reps as a starter or backup to Rees and has had another four to put him or Golson in a series or two so that this offense can have an athletic QB to challenge Ds like it is supposed to.

Kelly has instead rode Tommy every down, and his backups are now becoming more of a non-issue with every game. I do not pretend to know Kelly’s reasoning, but his handling of his QBs now has Crist likely gone, with Hendrix close behind, and he is looking at Golson now possibly sitting until 2014 as he continues with his investment into Tommy’s development while the other more physically capable QBs continue to stagnate.

Sit talent and play mediocrity until the talent walks. I’m not sure I like the business plan here, and I’m pretty sure the recruits and their families are noticing too.

Rees vs. Clausen/Quinn

The Crazed Pundits have flooded the comment boxes with “Clausen and Quinn struggled at first, Tommy has done even better statistically!!!”

Tommy has put up some numbers, mostly against bad Ds with a limited playbook, a boatload of turnovers, and in an offense that is supposed to be generating much more in both yards and points. He has looked flat out terrible under pressure and has put up abysmal numbers against the better defenses. He has also tossed the ball to DBs almost as much as he has to Michael Floyd, making everyone on the field have a good day every time out. But the number crunchers are missing my whole point altogether.

Quinn and Clausen were 4/5-star athletes with great arms whose skills were exactly suited to the pro-style offenses they were being groomed for. It made perfect sense to take the lumps to get these guys up to speed because once they got through the learning curve they were the perfect fit for the offense they inherited, maximizing the chances of success for both the QB and the offense as a whole.

Once they got there, we all saw what happened when the right athlete with the right training played major college football, and it was great to see.

Tommy Rees is nothing near a 4/5-star skill player, and his 4.85 40 and limited arm are being groomed to run an offense designed for a completely different type of athlete. When and if he gets through the learning curve, he is still going to be an anchor for this offense, and his turnovers and failure to deal with any real pressure is showing that it will be a long time before he even gets that far.

Rees vs. Tony Pike

Some of the more learned of the masses have noted that Tony Pike was a less mobile QB that toughed out the learning curve and eventually excelled in Kelly’s system at Cincinnati to the tune of 38 TDs, six picks and 38.2 points an outing.

For those of you that think Rees is the next Tony Pike, I want whatever you are smoking.

Rees is a generously listed 6’2” 215 lb 4.85-4.9 40 guy with an average arm at best. Pike is a 6’6” 230 lb 4.8-4.9 forty guy with surprising mobility, an above average arm and overall skill set that got him drafted by the NFL’s Carolina Panthers.

And when the rubber hits the BCS road, look at Pike’s line when his 12-0 38.2 PPG team quit speeding past the Big East traffic and rammed into a truck driven by the Florida Gators in the 2010 Sugar Bowl: 27-45 for 170 yards with three late garbage TD passes after Florida went up 37-3 and played the cheerleaders for the fourth quarter.

For those of you that have more of a masochistic edge, watch some of that game to see what happens when your spread QB can’t run or evade a rush against a big time defense.

Rees is no Tony Pike, and even if he is or becomes one, that still isn’t going to get Notre Dame where Kelly was hired to take us.

Rees vs. Matt LoVecchio/Pat Dillingham

This is a history lesson that should be familiar to most of the Notre Dame faithful, but bear with me.

Rees’ skill set closely matches both of these former ND QBs, although LoVecchio was taller and Dillingham was a few pounds lighter. Both had average arms and no wheels to speak of, though they were considered good decision makers with quick releases. Sound familiar at all?

Matt LoVecchio stepped in in 2000 with his limited skills and piloted a rugged defensive team that relied offensively on Julius Jones and Tony Fisher running behind a strong offensive line, with a few routes to Joey Getherall and David Givens to keep Ds honest.

Everyone loved Matt and called him a “winner” with that “something” as he guided the Irish to a 10-2 regular season. For the regular season, Matt was “8-1 as a starter.” Sounding familiar?

LoVecchio danced into the Fiesta Bowl against an Oregon State team that simply blitzed him into one of the biggest bowl beatings ND has ever taken: 41-9. Matt’s final line was 13-33 for 138 yards with two interceptions.

Pat Dillingham stepped in in 2002 with his limited skills and piloted a rugged defensive team that included Justin Tuck and relied offensively on Ryan Grant running behind All-American Jeff Faine and a strong offensive line, with a few routes to TE Anthony Fasano and Maurice Stovall to keep Ds honest.

Everyone loved Pat and called him a “winner” with that “something” as he guided the Irish to a 10-2 regular season. For the regular season, Pat was “6-1 as a starter.” Sounding even more familiar?

Dillingham danced into the Gator Bowl against a North Carolina State team that simply blitzed him into another bowl beating 28-6. Pat’s final line was 19-37 for 166 yards with three interceptions.

Welcome to your future Rees fans.

The Facts

Everyone (including you Brian Kelly), just quit pulling out the “6-1” card and quit repeating Rees made a drive here, he made a drive there, he’s just so clutch. I didn't say Rees never does anything right, but Rees wouldn't need a clutch drive against Michigan or Pitt if he doesn't make the high school mistakes or has the wheels to keep plays alive. Just face the facts and you’ll understand my point.

Fact 1: We have a QB that is a non-qualifier 6’1” non-entity at any other D1 school in the Top 50 who is 6-1 as a starter.  Six-one basically shows the program is capable of winning against decent programs with an average QB. Tell me where Rees is if he has Pitt's defense and run game?

Fact 2: Rees struggles against pressure and the incredibly high number of turnovers shows us Kelly screwed up last year by opting for a more ready Rees over the higher ceiling but unready Hendrix (or Golson this year for that matter). He has few options now and Hendrix will probably walk.  

Fact 3: Kelly’s system is dysfunctional when the D overloads and/or caves the pocket and the QB cannot run to mix up the program and extend plays.  Without a mobile QB, Kelly cannot game plan around that kind of pressure.

Fact 4: ND is fast approaching a BCS level defense, but we are never going to compete against Alabama, LSU, Oregon, etc. without a BCS level QB. Yes, Rees will get better and yes we will continue to beat flawed teams, but trying to pound a square QB into a round offense is the death knell for this program if we want to compete for a national title.

You cannot win at the highest level game planning around your quarterback.

Fact 6: Rees is exactly what we had in Dillingham and LoVecchio with exactly the same results, both now and going forward.

Summary

This is not a bash Tommy because I like Dayne article—and it is not a personal attack on a kid that has shown great character and stepped in under enormous pressure to perform above and beyond his skill set. But any way you cut it, he does not have the tools necessary to bring this program with this offense back to national prominence.

If this fan base is happy beating the weaker teams on our schedule with a ground game and defense and watching ND get our ass handed to us by the elite teams or watch us struggle year in and year out scratching out nail biters against the better defenses so be it. My point is that if you want to compete on a national level, sooner or later this program has to quit trying to play guys who would not step onto the field for anyone else.

This team is investing in Rees and that investment precludes the development of other QBs.  Kelly knew this but didn’t want to bite the bullet last year and now he’s paying for it.

Whether Crist can be salvaged, Hendrix can be worked into the mix or Golson is so good we can throw him into the fire, I don’t know what the best option is. Whether the answer is on our roster right now or not, there is a talented QB out there that can be a real threat in a spread offense, and it is not Rees.

I have no problem if ND wants to play the string out hoping Rees will blossom and that the Irish can pull an upset in a big game despite his shortcomings—he’s a great kid and it would make for a good story—but I’m not putting any money on it and I doubt most people would.