Conference Realignment: What Happens to TCU If There's No Big East

The Big East is crumbling, and TCU hasn’t even arrived yet. What will happen to the Horned Frogs if conference realignment dooms their future home?

Gary Patterson quietly built a powerhouse in Fort Worth. The Horned Frogs ascended near the summit of college football, becoming a fixture in the rankings even while residing in the perennially weak Mountain West.

TCU was competing, but its conference affiliation left it at a permanent disadvantage in the competition for bowl bids. The Horned Frogs needed to find a clear path to the BCS.

College football had already entered its fragile state of change, but TCU thought it had anticipated the coming tectonic shifts in the FBS landscape when it fled the Mountain West to join the Big East.

Unfortunately, the disintegration of the Big East has begun even before the Horned Frogs arrived. Syracuse and Pittsburgh are gone, and UConn and others are already evaluating other options.

It’s possible that the Big East may find a way back even after the departures of its former stalwarts, but the odds certainly aren’t in its favor. If the Big East as we know it crumbles under the weight of college football's burgeoning superconferences, what will become of its newest member?

The way I see it, there are three possible destinations for TCU.

Remain Independent

Even if the Big East ceases to exist as a football conference, it’s unlikely that the league would completely fail.

The Big East is already populated with more than a few schools that don't compete in its football league. Georgetown, St. John’s and Villanova have succeeded as longstanding members of the Big East without fielding an FBS football team.

Notre Dame continues to maintain its football independence while competing in the Big East in a litany of other sports.

It's possible that TCU could pursue a non-football arrangement with the Big East. It would certainly be a route that might appeal to TCU.

The Big East allows Notre Dame to dictate its own football schedule because of the clout that comes along with Notre Dame’s huge alumni base.

While TCU doesn’t boast that level of national popularity, it does bring something else that the Big East wants: access to the coveted Dallas/Fort Worth media market.

That access is a big reason that the Big East brought in TCU in the first place. Though the league would certainly be disappointed to lose TCU’s football program, it’d likely be open to keeping the Horned Frogs in order to extend its national reach if its own football conference collapsed.

This is a fairly unlikely scenario, but a very favorable one for TCU.

Join the Big 12

With Texas A&M gone, a gaping hole yawns in the South division of the the Big 12.

Though TCU’s enrollment is only 8,200 students, which much smaller than that of the typical Big 12 school, the Horned Frogs have proved that they can hang with the big boys on the football field.

If we’ve learned anything from this game of conference musical chairs, it’s that football is the only thing that really matters.

Conferences like the SEC and Pac 12 are in a position of strength and likely have better options than TCU, even if the Horned Frogs are rendered a free agent by the dissolution of the Big East.

The Big 12, however, is in turmoil. Schools are fleeing in all directions, seeking out more stable situations. Oddly enough, the Big 12, tumultuous though it may be, would actually present a more stable environment for TCU.

Though TCU may not be a perfect match across the board, it does have a football program that would fit right in as a member of the Big 12 South. Its addition would be a step toward completion for a conference trying frantically for rebuild.

For TCU, a move to the Big 12 would further cement its legitimacy as a national power. It would be a boon to Gary Patterson’s recruiting efforts, finally providing him with a real opportunity to leapfrog some of the traditional Texas titans to compete for the top high school players in the most talent-rich state in the nation.

Of all of the possible scenarios, settling in a restored Big 12 would absolutely be the ideal for TCU.

Return to the Mountain West

Though this is certainly not its preferred option, TCU might be forced to crawl back home with its tail between its legs.

TCU fled the Mountain West in search of a BCS automatic bid, but if the Big East dissolves, it’s unlikely that the Horned Frogs would have any other major conference invitations.

As I discussed in the previous slide, a move to the Big 12 is possible, but it’s far from likely. Beyond that, there’s no major conference desperate enough to reach out for TCU.

If no other major conference will accept it, TCU would have no choice but to beg its way back to its former home. A return to the Mountain West would almost certainly be TCU’s last choice, but in the long run, it may actually turn out to benefit the Horned Frogs.

Although TCU would remain a big fish in a small pond, it would at least have Boise State to challenge for the title on a yearly basis. If the Big East fails and the current BCS system persists, the BCS may be on the hunt for another conference to fill the slot formerly occupied by the Big East.

Among current non-AQ conferences, the Mountain West would have by far the best case for a bid.

Both Boise State and TCU have earned bids to the BCS and won, leaving no doubt that the Mountain West champion (which would almost always be the Broncos or Horned Frogs) would warrant a BCS bid on a yearly basis.

Who knows what impact the collapse of the Big East may have on the current BCS system, but if it somehow stays intact, TCU may find itself competing for an automatic bid in the Mountain West.