College Football 2011: 8 Reasons Why 2009 Will Repeat Itself

With only two games left before the calendar turns to October, the 2011 college football season is beginning to establish its own identity. 

We’ve had the year of the traditional powers in 2005, when Alabama, Nebraska, Notre Dame and Penn State all rose from the dead. 

We’ve had the year of the upset in 2007, when No. 1 or No. 2 lost on 11 different occasions. 

Two years ago, the 2009 season was shaped by dominance at the top.  Alabama, Florida and Texas established themselves as the top three teams in the country after Week 3 and would go on to beat everyone they played until they had to play each other. 

As we pass the quarter-mark of the 2011 season, 2009—for better or for worse—appears to be the blueprint that this season is following.

Two SEC Teams Are on a Collision Course

Much like Florida and Alabama were two years ago, LSU and Alabama appear to be far and away the class of the SEC.  One or both will be majorly tested, as Florida was with Arkansas and Alabama with Tennessee, but they should roll into Bryant-Denny Stadium on November 5th as the top two teams in the country. 

Both teams win with elite defenses but also have great pairs of tailbacks that have been able to wear down their September opponents.  After both teams passed major tests with flying colors on Saturday, the anticipation for the first Saturday in November is beginning to mount.

The Big 12 Champion Should Play for the National Title

Texas rode Colt McCoy to a perfect regular season in 2009, despite little semblance of a running game outside of McCoy himself. 

While Oklahoma and Oklahoma State can move the ball on the ground, both are led by elite quarterbacks in Landry Jones and Brandon Weeden.  The SEC is a defensive league, but the Big 12 is a quarterback league, and these two are two of the best around. 

With both teams already having their toughest road test behind them, a national title berth could be on the line when they meet in Stillwater on December 3rd. 

The Little Guy Won’t Get Any Love

For only the third time, two non-BCS teams went undefeated in 2009, as Boise State and TCU each finished the regular season perfect.  The Broncos once again appear on course to run the table, with Houston also having the talent and schedule to finish undefeated. 

Stanford jumped Boise State in this week’s polls.  Why?  Once again, voters don’t want to give Chris Petersen’s team a fair shake. 

Stanford has beaten San Jose State, Duke and Arizona, and they moved up to No. 4 in the coaches’ poll simply by sitting on the couch this past Saturday. 

When you’re Oklahoma or Alabama, the polls don’t matter.  When you’re Boise State, however, voters play a major role in determining your fate.

A Big East Team Can Go Undefeated

Brian Kelly had a magical season at Cincinnati in 2009, leading the Bearcats to a 12-0 season and the brink of a berth in the BCS Championship Game before leaving for Notre Dame. 

Now, a former Fighting Irish player and coach is attempting to do the same at South Florida.  Skip Holtz is quietly moving the Bulls up in the polls, and if they can win at Pittsburgh on Thursday night, they have a schedule the rest of the way conducive for success. 

Their three toughest remaining opponents—Cincinnati, Miami (FL) and West Virginia—all come to Tampa.  Holtz finally has B.J. Daniels playing with consistency, and USF has the potential to make 2011 a very special season.

The Heisman Race Is Wide Open

Cam Newton wrapped up the Heisman Trophy by late October last year, but this year there will be plenty of drama when college football’s best convene in Manhattan on December 10th. 

Andrew Luck, Kellen Moore, Landry Jones and Brandon Weeden will put up eye-popping passing numbers.  Robert Griffin and Denard Robinson are dual-threat stars, but it remains to be seen if Baylor and Michigan can win enough for their quarterbacks to be legitimate Heisman contenders. 

Can Trent Richardson duplicate Mark Ingram’s 2009 season?  Can Tyrann Mathieu be the first defensive back since Charles Woodson to get to New York for LSU? 

The 2009 vote between Ingram, McCoy, Ndamukong Suh and Toby Gerhart was as close a race as we’ve seen.  Expect a similar debate 10 weeks from now.

There Won’t Be Many Major Upsets

We won’t see a repeat of 2007.  We also won’t see a repeat of 2010, when five different teams were ranked No. 1. 

The SEC isn’t as deep as we thought it was.  The Pac-12 and Big Ten are lousy outside of the top two teams.  No one will seriously threaten Boise State.  It’s very possible the top five teams will remain the same until November. 

This season is much more top-heavy than in most years, so expect more stability.  It may take away some of the excitement from October, but November and December should be fantastic. 

As is the case with March Madness, when the opening weekend is relatively upset-free and you get some great matchups later in the tournament, this season’s most memorable moments will occur once the weather turns cool.

A Legendary Coach Will Retire

Bobby Bowden said goodbye to college football after the 2009 season, and the man with whom he is most often compared, Joe Paterno, will coach his final game in late December or early January. 

Paterno has yet to coach from the sideline this season, and his involvement with the program continues to wane.  The Nittany Lions’ offense is downright awful, and the team is still at least two years away from contending for the Big Ten title again. 

As is the case with everything he and the university does, Paterno’s exit will be classy and in good taste, but it’s time for a great fanbase to be given the on-field product it deserves.  It’s not going to happen with Paterno in charge.

Alabama Will Win the National Title 

Arkansas is a very good team, but they didn’t belong on the same field with the Crimson Tide on Saturday. 

Alabama’s defense collapsed last year in losses to LSU and Auburn, but this group is the best Saban has had, even better than the 2009 team with Terrence Cody and Rolando McClain. 

Getting the LSU game in Tuscaloosa is a huge advantage, and Nick Saban has not lost to a team in consecutive seasons since Florida beat LSU in both 2000 and 2001. 

Plus, is it that difficult to picture how an SEC vs. Big 12 national title game will play out? 

We’ve seen that script.  It always ends well for the SEC.