LSU Tigers' Strength of Schedule Makes Them the No. 1 Team in the Country
The LSU Tigers soundly beat the West Virginia Mountaineers for their fourth win tonight. Sure, the Mountaineers pulled within a touchdown for one play, but that was as close as they got. Sure, they passed for over 400 yards, but they only scored 21 points.
The fact is, in the end the scoreboard said 47-21, and that was the Tigers' third dominant win over a ranked team in four weeks. And it was enough to stop pretending that Oklahoma should be on top of them and move them into the No. 1 spot.
What is it that makes the LSU Tigers schedule so impressive that it merits they jump to No. 1 in the polls? It's not just that they've played and beaten three ranked teams in four weeks, though that is more than any other team has beaten. In fact, the only other teams to even beat two are Clemson and Alabama.
It's not even just that they haven't played any of those games at home. Two have been in enemy territory and one on a neutral site. One of Alabama's has been at home, and both of Clemson's wins against ranked teams have come at home.
It's all of that put together, plus the fact that they've won their games against ranked teams by an average of 17.3 points and have an overall average MOV of 24.5 points.
Winning three games on the road against ranked teams isn't just three times as impressive as doing it once. You have to take into account the aggregate effect. The wear compounds as the team doesn't have the chance to rest. In particular are the two consecutive games against ranked opponents. In spite of that, LSU has still dominated every game they've played.
If you want to put it in perspective, the No. 1 team, Oklahoma, has played only three games period. Only one has been against a ranked team. Two have been at home. Their average margin of victory in all games is only 14.3 points—less LSU's games against ranked opponents away from home.
People question LSU's offense and rave about Oklahoma's offense. LSU has averaged 40.3 points per game. Oklahoma has average 35.7 points. Scoreboard says LSU's is better.
LSU's defense has been called by Urban Meyer, "One of the best I've ever seen." In spite of the intense schedule they've played, they've given up only 14.3 points per game.
Oklahoma has given up 14.3 points against a weaker schedule and, again, have played two of their three games at home.
So let me put this all together for you: LSU has averaged more points, given up fewer points, played better teams better, and done that all on the road. How exactly do you frame an argument that Oklahoma is better?
In fact, Oklahoma shouldn't even be second. Alabama has beaten more ranked opponents than them too. They've scored an average of 38.5 points and yielded only eight points per game, though their opponents haven't been as stiff as the Tigers.
Still a more than impressive win against 14th-ranked Arkansas firmly establishes Alabama is a better team than Oklahoma.
A palatable argument could be made that they should be ranked above LSU since they've given up fewer points, but since LSU has one more win against ranked opponents, two more on the road, and beaten the best overall team in Oregon, I think LSU should get the nod.
In fact, it's a distinct and realistic possibility that LSU has already beaten the eventual conference champion of not one, but two BCS conferences in Oregon and West Virginia. While Penn State and Auburn are nice wins, they aren't the same.
It will be a moot point anyway as the two teams will play on November 5 in Tuscaloosa. The game will effectively serve as a de facto National Championship game as the winner of that game will likely eventually win the championship.
Of course, smurfs could conquer the world and someone else might beat one of the two before that or after that, but I don't see it happening. It actually is a sad state of affairs, because for all intents and purposes it gives Alabama a home-field advantage for the "real" National Championship Game. Just another reminder of why we should have a playoffs.
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