Iowa Football: How Can the Hawkeyes Improve as They Head into Big Ten Play?

On September 24, the Iowa Hawkeyes finished up their out-of-conference season with a shellacking of the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks, while the Iowa fans donned green in a tribute to currently ailing Hawkeye Brett Greenwood. 

It was a particularly uncharacteristic game for Kirk Ferentz's Hawkeyes because he ran an aggressive offense that seemed hungry not only to win, but to put the game out-of-reach early.

This was in direct contrast to the Hawkeyes that had an opportunity to beat Iowa State with well over a minute on the clock and two timeouts, yet chose to sit on the ball and go to overtime.

In effect, we are left to ask what the rest of the season holds for our Hawks?

Can we expect Kirk Ferentz to regularly go for it on 4th-and-1 from his own 49-yard-line, while he is up 7-3 in the first quarter? Or can we expect more of the pathologically risk aversive Iowa State gameplan?

Just as importantly, what does the rest of the season hold in store for the players? Who needs to step up? Which players will Iowa need to stay healthy if they are to make a run at a championship? What are Iowa's chances at a division championship, if not a conference championship?

These are the questions I will attempt to answer, as I try to assess where the Hawks are now and where they need to be at the end of the season.

Quarterback

I will say it. James Vandenberg is the best pure passer in the Kirk Ferentz era and probably the best pure passer to play at Kinnick Stadium since the "Chucks" graced Iowa City in the 80s.

That said, he still has plenty of room to improve, but I am confident that is what he will do.

Against ULM, it was evident that Ferentz has given the "go" to offensive coordinator Ken O'Keefe to tweak the offense in order to take advantage of his personnel. Admittedly, I was surprised, though fellow FC Styx Symmonds appropriately called for JVB to "come out like a wild gunslinger of the old west."

And that is exactly what he did.

For much of the first half, Iowa ran out of the shotgun. Also, for the Hawks' first two scoring drives they ran a mostly no-huddle offense. Their key personnel seemed to be 3-1-1 (three receivers, one running back, one tight end), as opposed to the two receiver, two running backs and one tight end that we have become used to.

Vandenberg was wildly successful, and much more consistent than he has been at any point in his career. On the first drive, he completed 4-of-4 passes for 67 yards. He was 8-of-11 for 106 yards and one touchdown on his first three drives.

Ultimately, Ferentz and O'Keefe will still try to get JVB more comfortable under center, out of the play action and throwing on the run.

But for now, there is a lot of upside with Vandenberg, who is currently the third most efficient quarterback in the Big Ten.

Running Backs

Marcus Coker is going to be the workhorse this year, and the game against ULM was a good opportunity for him to get back some of the confidence he lacked in the first three games of the season.

He was afforded this opportunity because the play-calling and passing game gave him room to run. Against Louisiana-Monroe, he proved he can be effective if he isn't consistently running into eight-and-nine-man walls.

Unfortunately, fumbling is still a problem. On Coker's third quarter touchdown (pictured above), he fumbled the ball after crossing the plane of the end zone. Rules indicated a TD, but reality indicated it was a sloppy reach and that is how the coaches will approach it.

Otherwise, the Hawks need to build up some depth after Coker.

The two primary players appear to be true freshmen Damon Bullock and Jordan Canzeri. Both are faster and more explosive than Coker, and will form a nice change of pace.

Bullock began the season as a wide receiver, but quickly switched to tailback after the injury to backup Mika'il McCall.

ULM was Bullock's first extensive playing time, and he was so-so. First of all, he had one fumble in six carries. Secondly, he got blown up in two of his blocking assignments.

Meanwhile, Canzeri hadn't played before ULM, so the fact that Ferentz was willing to burn his redshirt this late in the season shows that he is not entirely comfortable with Bullock yet.

As for Canzeri, he was exciting to watch and his explosiveness (not to mention diminutive size) are reminiscent of Freddy Russell, though Canzeri is faster in terms of straight line speed. That said, Iowa fans should keep in mind that by the time Canzeri got into the game, he was going against a tired ULM defense.

Finally, it is evident that redshirt freshman De'Andre Johnson is the odd-man out, and perhaps a move to the defensive backfield might be in the offing.

The fullback position will be less used this season than in year's past, as the best 11 men in the offense consist of three wide receivers to go along with a tight end, running back and quarterback.

Starter Jonathan Ginn was out against ULM with an injury. This gave redshirt freshman Matt Meyers the start.

Coaches have flip-flopped on Ginn and Meyers. In my opinion, Ginn has been more consistent.

Overall, the young running back group has a lot of room to improve and I expect they will.

Wide Receivers

I've already said that JVB is the best pure passer in the Kirk Ferentz era.

Now, I'm going to take one more opportunity to make myself look like a fool and say that this is the best wide receiver trio in the Ferentz era.

If Iowa makes a bowl game and Marvin McNutt continues on his current pace—an average of 6.25 receptions, 103 yards and one touchdown per game—he will break the Iowa career touchdown, career receiving yards and receiving yards in a season records. He would also be just short of breaking the career and season receptions records.

This blog goes into much more detail on the numbers.

Either way, McNutt is playing himself right into the second round of the NFL draft, though first round still seems improbable.

If it weren't for McNutt, Keenan Davis would be the talk of Iowa City, as he is playing outstanding football. Aside from the one notable overtime drop in Ames, he is catching everything that comes near him, and, in terms of statistics, is one of the top five pass catchers in the conference.

Lastly, Kevonte Martin-Manley has proven himself worthy of early season hype. He currently has 14 receptions for 181 yards and three touchdowns. Remember, this is Iowa's third receiver. When was the last time Iowa's third receiver was on pace to make over 40 catches for almost 600 yards? For comparison's sake, that is more than the Hawks' top receiver had in 2007 or 2008.

And, as a redshirt freshman, he has plenty of room to improve.

The Hawks do need to establish depth. We have yet to see what Don Shumpert, Steven Staggs and true freshman Marcus Grant can do.

Depth aside, color me excited in regards to Iowa's receivers. If they stay healthy, they, along with an improving JVB, could make for the most offensively explosive season we've seen in Iowa City in a long time.

Tight Ends

The tight ends began the season poorly. By my unofficial count, they had four catches and six dropped passes through the first two games.

They stepped up in the Pitt game, and it now seems that junior Zach Derby is the top tight end option when Iowa goes to the no-huddle and shotgun looks. Derby is playing well, but I would like to see more tight end involvement in the passing game.

At this rate, this will be the first season since 2007 and only the fourth time in the Ferentz era—1999, 2000, 2003 and 2007—that the Hawks fail to have a tight end with at least 30 receptions. Those numbers are particularly alarming when you consider that, aside from 2003, Iowa failed to make a bowl game in every one of those seasons.

Right now, the third tight end, true sophomore CJ Fiedorowicz, seems to be the odd man out. That is too bad, because in the limited time we have seen him, he is a weapon in the passing game.

The problem is Ferentz is disappointed in his development as a blocker. Perhaps, Ferentz needs to take what he has and line the 6'7" CJ up in slot, where he could be extremely dangerous going one-on-one with safeties. In other words, as CJ hopefully learns the position, he would play something akin to the role Scott Chandler played in 2004. 

I hope for this group to step up, as Iowa needs tight ends, both as outlet receivers and as the go-to in play action.

Moreover, when you consider how dangerous this passing game already is, it is unfathomable to consider how dangerous and versatile it would be with productive tight ends.

Offensive Line

Coming into the season, I felt this unit gave the Hawks a chance to be really good. I felt they would be the second-best offensive line in the Big Ten after Wisconsin.

They have played okay, but not as well as myself and many Hawk fans might have hoped. Part of that is the injury to sophomore Nolan MacMillan, who has missed the entire season thus far with a sports hernia. Fortunately, Ferentz recently indicated that MacMillan is now practicing and may be able to come back following the bye week.

That said, they are a strong and fairly deep unit, but opposing defenses have blitzed them mercilessly all year.

They can probably expect more of that, but the seeming tweak in the play calling should help them out.

One thing we have come to expect from Ferentz's team is an offensive line that steadily improves and gels as the season progresses. Hopefully, this line follows in that tradition.

Early returns are positive, as they did very well against ULM's confusing 3-3-5 front. They opened holes for the running game and gave JVB all day in the pocket.

Defensive Line

Against ISU, this unit was as ugly and ineffective a D-line as I can remember seeing under Ferentz.

Going into the ULM game, I felt this group had a ceiling. However, they continued to improve on their play from the Pitt game, and turned in their most complete performance of the year. 

Firstly, it was good to see defensive end Broderick Binns step up in Pitt game. He had been MIA since 2009.

Tackle Mike Daniels is the line's most solid and consistent player, but I don't know that he will ever be dominant, ala Mitch King or Jonathan Babineaux.

Weak-side end Dominic Alvis has a lot of room to grow and expect him to do that. He could be a future all-conference player, and as the youngest player in the starting four, he has the highest upside.

I originally felt that tackle Thomas Nardo had a very limited ceiling. However, he was all over the place against ULM, registering 12 tackles. That is as many tackles as I can remember a defensive tackle ever registering.

On top of the starting four, the Hawks are rotating a lot of players in, including seniors Joe Forgy and Lebron Daniel; juniors Joe Bigach and Joe Gaglione; redshirt freshman Carl Davis and true freshman Darian Cooper.

Obviously, given all of the inexperience and youth, there is a lot of potential.

That said, Iowa was haunted by contain issues against Iowa State and it is something that popped up again against ULM. That is a big problem given how many mobile quarterbacks Iowa will face this season.

In the end, I don't think this will ever be a great Iowa defensive line.

But if the ends can contain the quarterback, and if they can generate a consistent pass rush, they should be much better than most Hawk fans felt they would be following the Iowa State game.

Linebackers

Weak-side linebacker Christian Kirksey was one of the few bright spots against ISU. He was inconsistent against Pitt, but inconsistency is the mark of a young player. He was better against ULM and did a good job of covering the Warhawks' receivers.

Keeping in mind that he is a true sophomore, it is impressive to see how good Kirksey can be, and hopefully, he will consistently play at that level by the end of the season.

Middle-linebacker James Morris was lousy against ISU and at the beginning of Pitt game. He seemed to turn it around a bit in the second half against the Panthers. However, Morris seems to be in a middle-growth stage.

Last season, he was a true freshman and was working on limited instinct. This year, you can see the wheels turning. He is older, knows more and has more responsibilities. Consequently, he has to think instead of playing instinctively. Hopefully, some things will click for him, and he will be back to playing instinctively before the end of the season.

We know what we have in senior strong-side linebacker Tyler Nielsen. Now, he needs to get healthy, as he was gimpy against ULM.

True sophomore Anthony Hitchens did a nice job of spelling Nielsen when he left the Pitt game, and it is exciting to think about Kirksey, Morris and Hitchens playing together for two full seasons.

After Hitchens, depth is a major concern. Nielsen was officially listed as Morris' backup for Louisiana-Monroe. That is not good.

It essentially says that after Hitchens and fifth backup Tom Donatell (who came into camp as a safety and is listed at a tiny 205 pounds), Ferentz doesn't trust any of his other available linebackers.

In short, pray for the health of the starting linebackers and hope that true freshmen Quinton Alston and Marcus Collins develop quickly.

Secondary

Micah Hyde's move back from safety to corner and Jordan Bernstine taking over at starting strong safety helps a lot.

On the other hand, preseason All-Big Ten candidate, Shaun Prater, seems intent on submarining his draft stock. Part of the issue is playing with a new free safety. Still, he has to pick it up against better opponents. He had the worst game of his career against Pitt.

He also had at least one substantial, undisciplined lapse against ULM that led to the Warhawks' longest play of the day—a 35-yard pass—and eventually, to their second touchdown.

Free safety Tanner Miller is still learning. In fact, the learning he did from the Pitt game to the ULM game was palpable. He still needs to react more quickly, but some of the hits he had against Louisiana-Monroe leave me very enthusiastic about the true sophomore. He has the tools and he will continue Iowa's tradition of top-notch safety play.

Meanwhile, Hyde has been Iowa's best cornerback in the last two games, and I can't say enough about Jordan Bernstine. Right now, he might be the overall MVP of the team—not just defensive—as his play in every facet of special teams has added an element to the Hawks that was missing for much of last season.

Depth is an issue, but getting true sophomore cornerback B.J. Lowery back from injury will help a lot. He will give them depth and the option to tweak the lineup in passing downs. Perhaps, they might even (gasp!) throw in some nickel and dime looks. Either way, don't expect Lowery's return until at least the Northwestern game.

Greg Castillo, who started the first two games, adds depth, though it is hard to deny that he doesn't have the natural ability to be a Big Ten cornerback.

Overall, I like the potential with this bunch once Miller gets more comfortable. It is unfortunate we had to wait this long for Bernstine to get on the field.

Special Teams

Losing Bruce Davis hurts both in terms of linebacker depth and on special teams, especially on a team that has been struggling on coverage units for two years.

Overall, punt and kick coverage have been up and down, up to and including ULM. Kick coverage was great in the first half and then slipped big time after the break.

This is something that has to get fixed.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Unless Kirk Ferentz is going to make a habit of being as aggressive as he was against ULM (unlikely), a system like Ferentz's needs a great defense that forces turnovers and doesn't let up big plays; a dependable offense that doesn't turn the ball over and doesn't take backward plays; and stellar special teams across the board.

Anything less than stellar special teams and Ferentz will have to depend upon pinball interceptions or an improbable explosion of offensive talent similar to 2002 to ever get back to double digit wins.

If Iowa coverage units can play as well as they did at the end of the Pitt game and the beginning of the ULM game, then the Hawks should be set.

I will also note the following two things. Firstly, ULM came into the game amongst the worst kickoff and punt return units in the Sun Belt Conference. Thus, it's not as though Iowa was trying to contain Devin Hester.

Secondly, as previously mentioned, Jordan Bernstine is a manimal, and his presence and leadership on special teams will hopefully be what this unit needs.

Specialists

Punter Eric Guthrie has been impressive. He is a step down from Ryan Donahue—he has as much distance on his kicks as Donahue but nowhere near the hang time—but nobody expected him to step right into the erstwhile All-Big Ten punter's shoes. Overall, no complaints about Guthrie.

Hyde has been underwhelming at punt returner. In fact, his average after three games was a whopping 0.0 yards-per-return on three returns.

He was better against ULM, averaging 21.5 YPR, though that was mostly thanks to a crushing block by—guess who—Jordan Bernstine.

Despite this, Ferentz depends on his punt returners to be secure and dependable. They are not required to be explosive.

I like Bernstine and Bullock (or maybe Canzeri) returning kickoffs. Like Jewel Hampton in 2008, getting experience on kickoffs might give Bullock/Canzeri confidence, which will, in turn, improve his running game.

Keenan Davis just isn't a return man, and with a lifetime average of under 20 yards-per-return on 13 returns, the stats support that contention. Moreover, he's too valuable as a receiver to risk back there.

Nevertheless, Ferentz has been juggling Davis, Bernstine and Bullock on the returns, with Bernstine getting the most work.

True sophomore Mike Meyer has been fairly solid with place kicking. He has missed two, but only one of them can be pegged on him (the 40-yarder against Pitt).

However, his two kickoffs out-of-bounds are inexcusable. Make no mistake: his botched kickoff against ISU led directly to the slide that ultimately finished Iowa.

Play Calling

Iowa has the ball. It is 4th-and-1 at midfield. Iowa is up 7-3 with approximately 4:30 to go in the first quarter.

Kirk Ferentz is the head man so you know Iowa will punt, right? Wrong.

Welcome to the 2011 Iowa Hawkeyes, which has already been a roller coaster ride after four games.

If the ULM game is any indication, I like a lot of the adjustments Iowa has made. Iowa seems to be going pass-first, shotgun, three-wide, with a lot of up tempo stuff.

Moreover, KF seems to recognize, for arguably the first time in his career, that the strength of this team is the offense and he needs to ride that if this team is to live up to its' potential. I hope he continues with that attitude, because this D may improve but it will never be able to flat-out win games like 2004, 2008 or 2009.

It's not that I specifically like the aggressive, high-octane stance Ferentz seems to be going with this team. I do not want Iowa to try to become the Oregon Ducks.

I like, respect and relate to Kirk Ferentz's conservatism. I just think that in this case, Ferentz is working with the personnel he has, rather than trying to force the personnel to work within his system, which is something he has often done.

Less obviously than the offensive adjustments the Hawks had in the ULM game, on multiple 3rd-and-longs, the Iowa defense went 3-3-5, (with Anthony Hitchens coming in as a hybrid LB-S), which is a great adjustment given the problems the Hawks have had creating a consistent pass rush and getting off the field.

In closing, the ULM game might have been the most un-Ferentz-like game I have ever seen Kirk Ferentz coach, and I mean that in the best of ways.

Given how down most of the Iowa fanbase—myself included—were on him following Iowa State, it is great to remember just what has kept him in Iowa City in this age of revolving door coaches.

Final Overview: Who Are the 2011 Hawks and Where Will They End Up?

This is a team that will have to lead with the offense.

As previously mentioned, the defense may improve, but if Iowa is to win eight or more games, the offense will have to put a lot of points on the board.

That is unfamiliar territory for Kirk Ferentz and for that reason, the ULM game plan gives me a lot of hope.

The good news is the Hawks appear to have the offensive firepower to do it.

Throughout Iowa Hawkeye history, only five teams have opened the season scoring 30 points or more in the first three games—1900 (the team finished 7-0-1), 1985 (10-2), 1986 (9-3), 1997 (7-5) and 2011. Of those, only the 1985, 1997 and 2011 team scored 30 points or more in the first four games.

Looking ahead, Iowa's next four games include a Penn State team that is struggling mightily on offense, a Northwestern team that only recently got its offensive and emotional leader back, and the two worst teams in the conference.

In other words, it is conceivable that Iowa will be 7-1 at the beginning of November.

At that point, they get Michigan and Michigan State at home, a roadie against Purdue, who is currently the third worst team in the conference, then the big game at Nebraska.

Conspicuously absent from the Hawks' schedule are Wisconsin, Illinois and Ohio State—the three best teams in the Eastern Division of the Big Ten.

It's hard to say exactly where Iowa will end the season. I could still see them finishing 6-6, which is what I thought was their worst-case scenario before the season began.

On the other hand, following the ULM game, I could also see them finishing 10-2 and representing the Western Division in the inaugural Big Ten Conference championship game. This seemed like an impossibility after their collapse at Iowa State.

Thus, it appears this will be yet another wild year for Iowa and their fans, but if last Saturday is any indication, it will be different than some of the past wild rides we've had.