Who Has the Best Shot of Winning the Pac-12 in 2012: USC? Texas? Oklahoma?

Of all the scenarios that could come to fruition in the Big 12 debacle–let’s say that the cards finally fall and Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech all bolt the 15-year old conference and head westward to join the expanded Pac-16 for the 2012 season.

Yes, let’s just paint a pretty little picture that has Texas A&M and Missouri in the SEC and the remaining members of the Big 12 in the Big East (Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and Baylor).

And then, after the simultaneous implosion of both the old Southwestern and Big Eight Conferences, after the rumor mill stops, after the two-faced deal making is over, yes, after the love is gone…the 10 programs that used to be the Big 12 have to go back to the business of playing football.

Indeed, what happens after the dust settles and everyone has to live with their decisions?

The following slide shows plays a delicious game of “what if” and looks at the four Big 12 squads most likely to join the Pac-12 and gauges each of their odds at winning a bigger (but not necessarily better) Pac-16 conference.

Each of the potential defectors chances to capture a conference crown will be analyzed individually, and then our voyage through football fantasyland will end with a slide that ultimately predicts which of the four has the best shot of winning the west in 2012.

For arguments sake, we’ll assume that Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will land in the current Pac-12 North division and that Texas and Texas Tech will be assigned to the fledgling South.

Oklahoma

If the Sooners were to break-out of the Big 12, it would represent a grand departure from an 83-year old affiliation with the Big Eight/Big 12 conferences.

Following are some key stats regarding Oklahoma’s performance in both the Big 12 and against Pac-12 squads.

On an important note: the overall numbers for Oklahoma against the Pac-12 do not include Colorado, as those numbers were achieved as part of the Sooners Big 12 record and utilizing them would skew the numbers versus the Pac-12 teams; Oklahoma’s record against Utah is included.

Again, we are assuming Oklahoma and Oklahoma State join the Pac-12 North and Texas and Texas Tech join the South; the current members of the Pac-12 North are Oregon, Stanford, Washington, Oregon State, Cal and Washington State.

Last Decade vs. Big 12 Opponents:                          71-16      

Last Decade Division Titles:                                       7

Last Decade Big 12 Titles:                                         6

All-Time Record vs. Pac-12 Opponents:                    25-16       

All-Time Bowl Record vs. Pac-12 Opponents:           3-3         

All-Time Record vs. Pac-12 North Opponents:          18-6                                                     

Last Decade vs. Pac-12 Opponents:                         7-3

Last Decade vs. Pac-12 North Opponents:                6-1                         

Oklahoma has a winning record against every current member of the Pac-12 North other than Oregon State who they are 1-1 all-time against, but the Sooners haven’t played the Beavers since 1981.

In the bigger picture, Oklahoma also has a winning record over every Pac-12 South team with the big exception of USC who they are 2-6-1 against all-time (they last met in the 2005 Orange Bowl); additionally the Sooners are 1-1 against Arizona but the two haven’t met since 1989.

Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State didn’t join the Big Eight until 1960 but their recent surge of success, ongoing financial support and geographic ties with Oklahoma have them in good shape to claim a big prize in the potential conference reshuffle.

The Cowboys comparative numbers in the Big 12 and against Pac-12 opponents are as follows and again, it’s important to note the overall numbers for Oklahoma State against the Pac-12 do not include Colorado but the Cowboys record against Utah has been included.

Again, we’re making the assumption that OSU joins the North with neighborly Oklahoma.

Last Decade vs. Big 12 Opponents:                           41-39    

Last Decade Division Titles:                                       1

Last Decade Big 12 Titles:                                         0

All-Time Record vs. Pac-12 Opponents:                       8-7            

All-Time Bowl Record vs. Pac-12 Opponents:               1-1         

All-Time Record vs. Pac-12 North Opponents:              3-4                                                        

Last Decade vs. Pac-12 Opponents:                            5-2

Last Decade vs. Pac-12 North Opponents:                   1-1

The Cowboys have only played seven Pac-12 games in the last decade (two were wins over Arizona and Washington State in 2010 and one was last Thursday night’s win over Arizona) and only two Pac-12 opponents in the last two years (Oregon, a loss in the 2008 Holiday Bowl and Washington State).     

Oklahoma State have never met Cal, Stanford or Oregon State and last faced Washington in 1985.

Texas

The Longhorns joined the Southwest Conference in 1915 and have therefore been a part of the “family” for a whopping 96-years.

Texas’ numbers against the Big 12 and Pac-12 are as follows and though their performance against Colorado is not included in the overall Pac-12 head-to-head stats (for the same reason as Oklahoma and Oklahoma State) they are included in the Pac-12 South numbers as they would be playing each other (assuming again that the Longhorns join the South) every season (therefore history matters).

Utah is included in both figures.

Last Decade vs. Big 12 Opponents:                           65-18      

Last Decade Division Titles:                                       4

Last Decade Big 12 Titles:                                         2

All-Time Record vs. Pac-12 Opponents:                      21-12       

All-Time Bowl Record vs. Pac-12 Opponents:              3-3         

All-Time Record vs. Pac-12 South Opponents:            18-14                                                   

Last Decade vs. Pac-12 Opponents:                          3-4

Last Decade vs. Pac-12 South Opponents:                 9-2

What really jacks up Texas’ numbers against Pac-12 South opponents (USC, Arizona State, Utah, Arizona, UCLA and Colorado) is their all-time record of 11-7 against Colorado which also boosts the 10-year figure with a 7-1 advantage over the Buffaloes since 2000.

Taking these numbers off (which isn’t really fair because Colorado and Texas would play one another yearly under the proposed scheme) the Longhorns are 7-7 all-time against South opponents and 2-1 over the last decade.

Texas is 1-4 all-time versus USC and 2-3 against UCLA (a number that could be evened up this Saturday in LA) and haven’t met Utah since 1982 and Arizona since 1925.

The USC number should be quantified by pointing out that prior to the Longhorns huge win against the Trojans in the 2006 Rose Bowl the two schools hadn’t met since 1967.

Texas is 7-5 all-time against schools from the current Pac 12 North.

Texas Tech

The Red Raiders probably have the shakiest path to the Pac-12 out of the four schools listed here, they are rebuilding their football program with a new coach, they don’t have as much money as the other three and their connection to Texas is less solid than is Oklahoma State’s to Oklahoma.

Texas Tech joined the Southwest Conference in 1960 and though they weren’t necessarily a shoe-in for a spot when the Big 12 formed in 1996 they have performed well in one of the toughest divisions in college football.

Tech’s data takes the same approach in terms of Colorado and Utah’s head-to-head stats as does those for the Longhorns (i.e. Colorado is out of the overall numbers and in the divisional figures while Utah is included in both).

Last Decade vs. Big 12 Opponents:                           47-33  

Last Decade Division Titles:                                       1                                             

Last Decade Big 12 Titles:                                         0

All-Time Record vs. Pac-12 Opponents:                      10-10       

All-Time Bowl Record vs. Pac-12 Opponents:               1-1         

All-Time Record vs. Pac-12 South Opponents:             33-13                                                   

Last Decade vs. Pac-12 Opponents:                            1-0

Last Decade vs. Pac-12 South Opponents:                   2-3                         

What stands out in the Red Raiders statistical catalog against the Pac-12 is the high number of all-time games against Pac-12 South opponents which is actually not due to its relationship with former Big 12 foe Colorado but instead Arizona.

Texas Tech was a member of the Border Intercollegiate Athletic Association from 1932-56 and Arizona was affiliated with the same conference from 1931-1961 giving the two approximately 25 years of previous close relations.

As far as the last decade is concerned the Red Raiders have only met Colorado from the Pac-12 South (Tech is 2-3 against the Buffaloes during that time period) and from a broader view Texas Tech has only met one other Pac-12 member in the last ten years when they beat Cal in the in the 2004 Holiday Bowl.

The Red Raiders haven’t met USC since 1995 (an ugly affair in the Cotton Bowl), Arizona State since 1999, Utah since 1973, Arizona since 1989 and Texas Tech has never played UCLA in its long (and quite glorious) history.

Who Has the Best Shot of Winning the Pac-16?

Though numbers are just a digit-driven expression of history and not necessarily indicative of future performance, they at least give us clearer picture into “what if” than if we just simply guessed.

In terms of recent in-conference success Oklahoma has the clear advantage in every category (winning percentage and divisional and conference titles) which clearly paints a picture that the Sooners are in the best shape to have immediate success, anywhere, of the four.

In all-time head-to-head performance against the Pac-12 (less Colorado) Texas has a slight edge over Oklahoma (63 percent versus 61 percent), but in the last decade Oklahoma State has slightly been more successful against Pac-12 opponents than Oklahoma (71 percent versus 70 percent).

But, that said, the Sooners have played 10 Pac-12 opponents in the last 10 or so years while the Cowboys have only faced seven, and, as for Texas they are 3-4 which puts them in last place of the four at 43 percent while Texas Tech is perfect against the Pac-12 during the same time period but has only played one opponent.

Looking at the all-time records against potential divisional opponents Oklahoma gains a big edge over Oklahoma State when facing foes from the new Pac-12 North (75 percent versus 43 percent) and Texas Tech actually has an edge over Texas in facing South opponents over time (72 percent versus 56 percent).

In terms of recent performance against “what if” divisional rivals the Sooners 6-1 mark (86 percent) is far superior to the Cowboys 1-1 record (50 percent) while Texas’ (most on their record against Colorado) 9-2 (92 percent) completely trumps Tech’s 2-3 (40 percent, all earned against the Buffaloes).

Overall, Oklahoma has a clear advantage over Oklahoma State in winning the North (and don’t forget the Cowboys would still have to face the Sooners yearly in this scenario and Oklahoma has a 9-2 advantage since 2000) and Texas has the upper hand in the South over Texas Tech (and the Red Raiders would still need to beat the Longhorns to win a divisional title and they are similarly 2-9 against Texas since 2000).

So, if Oklahoma and Texas both have the inside track in their respective Pac-12 divisions then who wins the whole enchilada?

Well, even though Texas holds a 59-41-5 all-time advantage over Oklahoma the Sooners are 7-4 against the Longhorns since 2000 and they have won seven of the last ten Big 12 South crowns (over Texas) and they’ve won six of the last 10 Big 12 Championships.

The clear winner in the “who has the best shot of winning the Pac-12 in 2012” sweepstakes belongs to Oklahoma.