Previewing Big Ten Battles for Week 3

Just two more weekends of non-conference football before we get to the real games, and like last weekend there are just enough intriguing matchups to distract from the handful of FCS and MAC teams on the schedule.

Illinois welcomes the tallest quarterback in history, Nebraska gets a shot at redemption, Michigan gets to catch its breath, and Indiana gets to pay an FCS school to come to town and teach it to play football.

Should be a fun week of games. Let's take a look.

(For the record, in depth previews of Michigan State at Notre Dame and Ohio State at Miami will run later this week and be linked here once posted.  Don't want Spartan and Buckeye fans to think I forgot about them.) 

Michigan (2-0) vs. Eastern Michigan (2-0)

Saturday, 12:00PM: BTN, Ann Arbor, MI

The Opponent:  Eastern Michigan University Eagles (MAC)

Football isn’t really EMU’s thing. I’m not sure what thing does belong to the small directional school in Ypsilanti, MI, but I’ve seen enough football from the team to know that it just isn’t happening. 

Despite this, the Eagles are looking to prove myself and the rest of the doubters wrong this year. Eastern Michigan has already matched its win total from the last two years combined (two), and currently sits fifth nationally in rushing yards per game. Either Mike Hart is a magician, or the Eagles have played a couple bad FCS schools. Survey says?

Keys to the Defense:  Michigan’s defensive line play.

In the first two games Michigan has struggled to find the kind of production that it hoped to get out of its defensive line before the season. Michigan’s only sacks have come from a safety, Jordan Kovacs, and junior defensive end Craig Roh has yet to so much as record a tackle. Shutting down an Eagle offense that has won because of the run game (331 yards per game this season) will be a good first step in getting this line where it needs to be for Michigan to be successful.

Player(s) to Watch:  Fitzgerald Toussaint.

Week one’s leading rusher was injured against the Irish, and in his stead a trio of Wolverine running backs rushed for 10 yards on eight attempts. If Fitz is healthy he should reclaim the starting job.

Prediction:  Michigan 45 - EMU 17

Iowa (1-1) vs. Pittsburgh (2-0)

Saturday, 12:00PM: ESPN2, Iowa City, IA

The Opponent:  University of Pittsburgh Panthers (Big East)

The fighting Wannstedts no more, Pittsburgh is now the transplant home for the spread offense run in Ann Arbor the last three years—offensive coordinator Calvin Magee joined new coach Todd Graham in the offseason after being swept out with the rest of Rodriguez’s staff. So far the transition has paid off, as the Panthers are 2-0, with an offense producing almost 400 yards per game on offense.

Keys to the Defense:  Make plays late.

Last week against Iowa State, Iowa allowed touchdowns on the final four drives of the game in their triple overtime loss. After last year's habit of collapsing down the stretch, Iowa needs to prove that it can close out games.

Player(s) to Watch: James Vandenberg

The Hawkeye offense is the kind of classic pro style attack that thrives on balance. It's focused on running to open up the pass, and in doing so setting up big plays in the play action game. The Hawkeyes have been successful at this the last two weeks because Vandenberg has done a good job passing the ball. Iowa will need a good offensive day to survive on Saturday.

Prediction: Iowa 34 - Pitt 31

Purdue (1-1) vs. Southeast Missouri State (0-1)

Saturday, 12:00PM: BTN, West Lafayette, IN

The Opponent:  Southeast Missouri State Redhawks (FCS)

How do you take a break from a tough two week schedule that includes a Sun Belt team and a C-USA team? Schedule an even easier opponent. Enter the SEMSU Redhawks. Purdue, your dessert is ready.

Keys to the Offense: Keep passing the ball.

The development of Caleb TerBush has helped the Boilermakers move the ball in the last two games, and with the improving health of Robert Marve, who could see some snaps on Saturday, Purdue has to continue to move the ball through the air effectively. A gaping hole in production at the quarterback position last season doomed the Boilermaker offense to fail, but with good signs so far in 2011, things could be turning around.

Player(s) to Watch: Ralph Bolden

Bolden had a quiet day last week, with just 46 yards on 11 carries. The Boilermakers made up for his off day by getting almost 140 yards between Caleb TerBush and Akeem Shavers. Look for Bolden to once again lead the pack after his slow week.

Prediction: Purdue 38 - SEMSU 17

Penn State (1-1) at Temple (2-0)

Saturday, 12:00PM: ESPN, Philadelphia, PA

The Opponent: Temple University Owls (MAC)

Temple lost coach Al Golden to Miami over the off season (do you think he is regretting that right about now?) after he had helped build some positive momentum for the program and got it to an 8-4 record in 2010 on the strength of a top-20 defense. Steve Addazio, former Florida offensive coordinator, took over the head job and has done a good job so far, leading the team to a 2-0 record.

Keys to the Offense:  Do something.

After the Penn State offense spent the better part of last Saturday being trampled, then scraped off Alabama's shoes, it is time for the Nittany Lions to start building some offensive cohesion with the now somewhat safe starter in place. Matt McGloin's 1/10 performance was so bad that it made Rob Bolden's 38 percent completion percentage seem downright precise. Bolden should get the majority of the snaps, and he needs to raise the level of the whole offense.

Player(s) to Watch: Silas Redd

The Owls are currently a top-25 rush defense, after being an above average unit last year. Last year Evan Royster rushed for 187 yards against the Owls, and the Nittany Lions needed every one to escape 22-13. With the quarterback play still a huge question mark, Redd will most likely need to shoulder the offensive load.

Prediction: Penn State 24 - 17

Wisconsin (2-0) at. Northern Illinois (1-1)

Saturday, 3:30PM: ESPN3, Chicago, IL

The Opponent:  Northern Illinois Huskies (MAC)

Northern Illinois may be the home team this week, but the crowd in Soldier Field will almost certainly favor the Badgers.  One thing that might favor the Huskies is the man now roaming the sidelines. After losing coach Jerry Kill to Minnesota this off season, NIU picked up Wisconsin defensive coordinator Dave Doeren. Doeren has a tall task stopping his old team, but his offense has a talented quarterback and a running back that has already registered two 100 yard games.

Keys to the Defense:  Get the ball back.

The Wisconsin offense is good enough that it will score more often than not against schools from lower level conferences, but if the Badgers are going to win this game easily, the defense will need to find ways to get the ball away from the talented Huskie offense and back to the Badgers own offensive play makers. If NIU can string together some drives and keep the game close, the window for stealing a win will stay open well past when the Badgers are comfortable.

Player(s) to Watch:  Cornerback

Wisconsin lost starting corner Devin Smith to a season ending injury last weekend. The Badgers will need to fill in the position against an offense that is capable of scoring through the air (seven pass TDs in two games).

Prediction:  Wisconsin 54 - NIU 20

Northwestern (2-0) at Army (0-2)

Saturday, 3:30PM: CBS, West Point, NY

The Opponent: United States Military Academy Black Knights (Ind.)

Army has its game and sticks to it. Run the ball.

Right now the Black Knights have the second most rushing yards in the nation with an average of 353 yards. This comes the year after putting up the eighth most yards in the country. Of course, Army doesn't have anything to show for this, having lost its first two games to NIU and San Diego State.

Keys to the Defense: Stop the run

Northwestern was downright bad at playing run defense last year. In the first two games this year the Wildcats have been average at stopping the run, allowing 118 yards per game. Army is going to present the stiffest challenge yet to Northwestern's developing run defense.

Player(s) to Watch: Dan Persa

Persa's heel injury is improving, and he is hopeful that he will be able to play this Saturday. The Heisman campaign may have folded early, but if Persa plays and is fully recovered from his injury, he could begin to take this Wildcat offense to another level.

Prediction: Northwestern 35 - Army 21

Minnesota (0-2) vs. Miami (OH) (0-1)

Saturday, 3:30PM: BTN, Minneapolis, MN

The Opponent: University of Miami (OH) Redhawks

The Redhawks are another Midwest team adjusting to a new coach, after Mike Haywood accepted (then lost) the head job at Pitt, and MSU offensive coordinator Don Treadwell was brought in as a replacement. Miami was good last year, winning the MAC championship game. The 2011 version of the Redhawks only has one game under its belt, a 17 - 6 loss to Missouri on opening weekend.

Keys to the Offense: Increase the efficiency.

In the last two games Minnesota has gained 721 yards at over eight yards per pass attempt and four yards per rush. However, the Gophers are still winless. The reason for this is simple: the Gopher offense can't sustain drives. Minnesota is eight for 26 on third down conversions and two for five on fourth down. While the Gopher offense is capable of gaining yards, it isn't capable of staying on the field and stringing together the kind of drives that end in points. Minnesota has to keep the chains moving on offense. 

Player(s) to Watch: MarQueis Gray

Gray has yet to play a full game at quarterback, but last week against NMSU, he was by far the more productive of the two options, completing 16 of his 32 passes for 211 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions to Max Shortell's two for seven for 27 yards. Gray's increased comfort at quarterback is the key to Minnesota's offensive development.

Prediction:  Minnesota 21 - Miami (OH) 20

Indiana (0-2) vs. South Carolina State (1-1)

Saturday, 3:30PM: BTN, Bloomington, IN
 

The Opponent:  South Carolina State Bulldogs (FCS)

Because even the cupcake on every other team's schedule needs a cupcake of its own.

At least that is what Indiana's athletic department hopes. Last year the Bulldogs were fourth in the FCS in rushing and scoring defense, and second in pass efficiency and total defense on the way to a 9-3 record. The offense relied mainly on the run game (28th in FCS) for a scoring average of 30 points per game. Indiana could have picked an easier mark.

Keys to the Defense: Create separation.

In the last two games Indiana has put up remarkably similar numbers to its opponents in yards, turnovers, and conversion percentages. In neither game has this made any difference. Indiana's offense is keeping the Hoosiers in the game, but the defense has yet to allow its offense an opportunity to build a lead by getting the other team off the field.

Player(s) to Watch: Edward Wright-Baker

The RS-So. has played well this year, totaling 443 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception on better than a 50 percent completion percentage. With no Indiana running back having yet eclipsed the 50 yard mark in a game this year, Wright-Baker has been just about all the Hoosiers' offense.

Prediction: Indiana 17 - SCSU 21

Nebraska (2-0) vs. Washington (2-0)

Saturday, 3:30PM: ABC/ESPN, Lincoln, NE

The Opponent: University of Washington Huskies (Pac-12)

Saturday, the Huskies and Huskers face off in the rubber match after splitting the 2010 series 1-1.

The first game last year was all Nebraska, which ran up 383 rushing yards and six touchdowns en route to a 56-21 beatdown that saw Washington gain just 246 yards.

The second game was night and day different offensively for Nebraska, as the team got just 91 yards rushing and 98 yards passing, on the way to a 19-7 loss.

Keys to the Offense: Martinez

Quite simply, the difference between game one and game two last year was 100 percent the health of Taylor Martinez. In the teams' first match up, Martinez was healthy and running an offense that was almost impossible to stop because of the myriad of ways it could move the ball. However, with Martinez hobbled in the second game, the run game shifted to a one-dimensional attack with the tailbacks, and the passing game closed up because linebackers and safeties were less inclined to freeze like startled animals in headlights upon the first Taylor Martinez twitch they saw. A healthy Martinez should mean a powerful Nebraska offense.

Player(s) to Watch: Taylor Martinez

Everything above, plus this:

That is the stat line for Taylor Martinez (rush yds, rush TDs, pass yds, pass TDs) from the first and second times these teams met last season.  Martinez needs to prove himself again.

Prediction: Nebraska 45 - Washington 17

Illinois (2-0) vs. Arizona State (2-0)

Saturday, 7:00PM: BTN, Champaign, IL

The Opponent:  Arizona State University Sun Devils (Pac -12)

Did you know Arizona State's quarterback, Brock Osweiler, is 6-foot-8?  If you watched last Friday's game against Missouri, you will take that fact to your grave. Osweiler, hoping to become more than just an answer to a triva question, has begun to put together quite a good season as a passer. Through two games, he is 43 of 58 for 615 yards and five touchdowns to just one interception.

Keys to the Defense: Stopping Aaron Pflugrad.

The diminutive senior from Montana had 180 yards against Missouri and two touchdowns after scoring two touchdowns the week before on just 50 yards. After pulling in just 329 yards last year, this looks like it could well be Pflugrad's breakout season. Illinois will need to find a way to keep Osweiler's favorite target blanketed on Saturday.

Player(s) to Watch: Jason Ford

Ford entered the year in line for the starting running back job and was the teams leading rusher through week one. However, against SDSU last week he only gained 48 yards rushing on 4.4 ypc, the worst ypc average of anyone over 5 carries. Ford was great as the number two back in 2010, but he will need to prove himself worthy of holding down the top spot in the backfield.

Prediction:  Illinois 34 - ASU 31