New York Yankees: Ranking the Odds of Who Makes the Playoff Starting Rotation

Entering Tuesday night, the Yankees are four games ahead of the Boston Red Sox in the American League East.

At 89-57, they have the best record in the American League and look like they are a lock for the playoffs, especially with the Red Sox falling back and seemingly, falling apart in September, especially due to some injuries.

With about two and a half weeks remaining, players are fighting to determine if they will be used on the playoff rosters come October.

For the Yankees, their biggest concern is the starting rotation.

It's been the same song and dance for the Yankees and Joe Girardi since March 31.

And yet, with all of the question marks surrounding their rotation, the Yankees are still in first place and the best team in the American League.

So, who will make the Yankees rotation?

Let's figure out who has the best shot to make it when the calendar flips October.

1. CC Sabathia

2011 numbers: 19-8, 2.93 ERA, 224.1 innings, 216 strikeouts

Sabathia is a lock for the rotation; we all know this. He is the ace of the Yankees staff and is having himself another fantastic year.

Sabathia can opt out of his contract at the end of the season, which many expect. But the Yankees would be out of their minds not to pay him whatever he wants.

The 2011 ALCS MVP is a huge key to the Yankees winning another championship and to their future success.

Odds in rotation: 100 percent

2. Ivan Nova

2011 numbers: 15-4, 3.94 ERA, 144 innings, 87 strikeouts

Before the season started, Sabathia was the only sure thing.

Nova was fighting with two other starters trying to make the rotation. He started out 8-4 before he got sent down to AAA when Phil Hughes returned to the rotation in July.

They recalled Nova back up to the majors on July 30. He's 7-0 in eight starts since then.

Plus, he's up for the American League Rookie of the Year Award for how well he's performed for the Yankees.

And he's earned his spot and chance to pitch in October.

Odds in rotation: 100 percent

3. Bartolo Colon

2011 numbers: 8-9, 3.55 ERA, 152 innings, 128 strikeouts

Colon has been very good for the Yankees rotation in 2011. They wouldn't be where they are right now without him.

His record doesn't jump out at you, but he's been victimized by lack of run support in games, which is why he hasn't won a decision since July 30.

He also spent almost a month on the DL, but seems fully recovered from the hamstring injury.

The 38-year-old veteran has looked like the 2005 Cy Young Award winner at times on the mound, mixing his pitches and dominating hitters with movement and power.

I never thought I would say this, but if the Yankees want to have any chance of winning in October, they need Colon to stay healthy and effective.

But he's earned his spot to pitch in October and for a championship.

Odds in rotation: 85 percent

4. Freddy Garcia

2011 numbers: 11-7, 3.71 ERA, 136 innings, 89 strikeouts

Garcia has pitched beyond expectations for the Yankees as well in 2011, considering he was signed to a minor league deal in the winter.

For the most part, Garcia has been very consistent and given the Yankees at least six solid innings.

Then there are those games where Garcia can't hit his spots, and because his velocity is down, he gets whacked all over the ballpark.

In his last two starts in September, Garcia has been hit hard, surrendering 12 runs in those games and his ERA spiked up from 3.09 to 3.71.

He could get the nod because of his playoff experience, as he won a World Series with the Chicago White Sox in 2005.

But if his bad August continues, I wouldn't be surprised if he gets put into long relief.

Odds in rotation: 65 percent

5. Phil Hughes

2011 numbers: 5-5, 6.00 ERA, 72 innings, 45 strikeouts

In the beginning of 2011, Hughes started out 0-1 with a 13.94 ERA and was put on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation, mostly because Hughes velocity was extremely down and was getting shelled in every outing.

Hughes then returned to the Yankees on July 6 and has been 5-4 since then and got his ERA down to 6.00.

He's had games where he has been brilliant, like on Monday night's game against the Mariners where he out-pitched Felix Hernandez by pitching six solid innings and allowed only one run for the win.

Then there are the other games where he has been flat out terrible, like on August 25 against the Oakland A's, where he went 2.2 innings and put the Yankees in a 7-1 hole in the third inning.

Hughes has pitched in both starting and relieving roles for the Yankees in past playoff experience.

In 2010, Hughes was awful against the Rangers in the ALCS. But in 2007 against the Indians in the ALDS, he saved the Yankees from elimination.

With a guy like Garcia or Colon, Hughes could be used as a long reliever if they don't get hurt. I'd say Hughes has a 50-50 shot of starting.

Odds in rotation: 50 percent

6. A.J. Burnett

2011 numbers: 9-11, 5.27 ERA, 172 innings, 148 strikeouts

For the second year in a row, Burnett has double-digit losses and is under .500, yet the Yankees are still winning despite him.

Burnett's last win was back on August 15 against the Royals; before then, it was June 29 against the Brewers.

We all thought Burnett would be taken out of the rotation because of how horrible he had been pitching, but yet somehow, he's still in the rotation for the Yankees.

During the playoffs last year, Burnett didn't get to pitch until Game 4 of the ALCS against the Rangers, a gamer he started out well, but ended up surrendering the lead and taking the loss, putting the Yankees in a 3-1 deficit in the series.

If Burnett continues to pitch inconsistently, he not only might not find himself in the rotation, but not on the postseason roster as well.

Right now, I don't think Girardi trusts Burnett with the ball in a big game for one second. And neither do I.

Odds in rotation: 30 percent

If the Postseason Began Today....

If the playoffs began today, the rotation likely would look like:

1. CC Sabathia

2. Bartolo Colon

3. Ivan Nova

4. Freddy Garcia

LRP: Phil Hughes

I would put Colon in the Game 2 spot to break up him and Garcia from going back to back starts, just in case both guys can't go past five innings and don't burn out the bullpen.

I think if either Colon or Garcia run into trouble, Hughes comes into the game to eat up innings. Last year, unfortunately, it was Sergio Mitre, who was AWFUL. I'd rather use Hughes in that spot for 2011.

Also, if the playoffs were to begin today, the Yankees would have a re-match with the Texas Rangers in the first round of the ALDS and the Red Sox would play the Detroit Tigers.

A lot can certainly change in the two weeks remaining in the regular season, especially with the Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Angels still in the thick of the playoff race.

But if the Yankees were able to draw the Rangers in the playoffs again, without Cliff Lee pitching for Texas, I would like the Yankees' chances to get redemption for 2010 and beat Texas.

October baseball will be here before you know it.

Stay tuned, Yankees Universe.