5 Reasons Texas Will Follow BYU and Notre Dame to Independence

We all thought BYU learned some valuable lessons from Texas this weekend in losing 17-16 in Austin. A hard fought game between a newly independent upstart and the old line established dean of football in the Southwest. But what may have come out of the game might have been more important for Texas than BYU.

BYU declared itself to be independent last year and with it came a big contract with ESPN and its own TV network, BYU-TV. A few minutes after the conclusion of the game being broadcast on ESPN2, the BYU-TV network fired up the game and broadcast it world wide to perhaps one billion homes. The world-wide audience watched young upstart BYU almost beat Texas, and the exposure was invaluable to Texas. 

And there’s the lesson. It’s just not about the United States TV market anymore, the world is watching. 

Texas Wants International Exposure

The Big 12 deal is for 13 years for an average of $90 million annually for the cable broadcasts on Fox Sports Network and F/X. When added to the current ABC/ESPN deal, total revenue jumps to $130 million for 10 schools. But the Big 12 wants to be a 12-team league. So this means it will average out to about $10 million a school, per year, for 13 years. The SEC, in comparison, is getting $205 million for it’s 12 schools.

Even though it was originally planned that Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Texas were to get the lions share, still A&M felt jilted by the Texas Longhorn network and its exiting stage right. Now Oklahoma, not able to field it’s own network, is looking for greener pastures in the Pac-12. They are hoping to take little brother Oklahoma State along with them.

Texas is a powerhouse and well recognized for their postseason bowl game appearances, ranking second among colleges with 49 appearances. They are also ranked third in bowl game victories. Their record of number of games played at 1,208 ranks them an astonishing eighth.

In 2008 ESPN ranked the Texas Longhorns the seventh-most prestigious college football program since 1936. The program began in 1893 and is the second-most successful football program of all time. Texas' record is 852–325–33 (.723) in NCAA history.

Texas is not taking a back seat to any program in the country. The big money exits with Texas A&M and Oklahoma, and they know it.

So, what is Texas to do?

Texas and Mack Brown Will Be Left in the Lurch

If the foregoing happens, where does that leave Texas amidst the fleeting facts today? 

1. The big money contract was dependent on three big teams, two of them are exiting.  

2. Texas can’t carry the Big 12 by itself, or even a Big 8.

3. BYU, and other notables, won’t join the Big 12 without, well big 12 calibre teams like Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M.

4. For Texas, there is no big money in a little leftover conference. 

They will be left in the lurch. Texas A&M, Colorado and Nebraska got their revenge against Texas for the Longhorn network, they destroyed the Big 12, and with it, the Big 12 TV broadcast contracts.

Now comes the lesson Texas learned from BYU.

The Big 12 Will Be Destroyed

Let’s pause a moment and look at some facts, put them together and see what we get? 

A. Texas A&M moves to the SEC, and probably takes Missouri with them. 

B. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are making a move to the Pac-12.

C. That would leave Texas in an inferior league, which they won’t do. 

D. Texas is willing to let all this happen and watch the Big 12 dissipate and be broken up. They are sticking to their guns, and the Longhorn Network. 

Result? 

It forces Texas either into an eventual compromise and the Pac XX, and to give up the Longhorn network, or into independence.

Independence sweeps away the old rivalries making Texas free to build new rivalries not based on instate or even next door locations so convenient 80 years ago. Now Texas is able to reach out and play anyone they want on a regular basis. BYU, Notre Dame and whoever else they want. 

Texas Wants Automatic Access to the BCS and a Championship

As the Pac-12 evolves into a 14- or 16-team league, and other conferences go that route as well, the number of “at large” non-conference games for teams in those leagues will be cut down. The leagues will want to maximize their own exposure and TV revenues, not enhance those of an independent or non super conference team. The Pac-XX will be playing 10 or 11 games within their conference and only one or two games outside. The games outside will be with the other 16-team conferences, trying to maximize the branding of “super conferences.”  

After all, you can’t call yourself a super conference and have Sacramento State, Appalachian State and James Mason beating your teams. Let alone a New Mexico State, Utah State or some other “title sisters of the poor” team.

However, Texas is not anyone’s little sister and isn’t poor. It is big enough and powerful enough to get the same BCS deal Notre Dame has and that BYU is working toward. And they won’t have to slog through a conference championship game to do it either.

Independence May Be a Wave of the Future for Big Teams That Can Afford Their Own

With three teams making it in independence and financially viable, not depending on a conference, not splitting bowl game revenues, or TV revenues, or taking a back seat to large teams, or giving up shares to subsidize small teams, independence might be very attractive to some teams that have special followings and financial support. 

That may result in other teams going independent in the next few years as they see the BYU, Notre Dame and Texas success.  

Additionally, other teams may follow the independent route as they find the super conferences don’t really work. And they won’t work for a number of reasons, yet to be explored by a plethora of legal scholars at 199 law schools nationwide. That number should be emblazoned in everyone’s mind, as there are more law schools than there are NCAA Division I teams, and three times the number than what would comprise the super conferences. 

We may well see those schools with the money to start their own network will, and be the independents in the future. Those who don't, will fall into a "conference" alignment that will ultimately represent a second tier.

The Money Issue

Who to play will be easy. Many teams will beat a path to Austin to play Texas. Texas is already scheduled to play four games with BYU. Notre Dame has scheduled six to play against BYU.

Perhaps we could see Notre Dame scheduling six with Texas as the super conferences evolve. During those six years, we may see a whole new evolution of NCAA conference alignment that hasn’t even been thought of yet. 

It may be as easy as allowing the market to solve the problem. Meaning, what is your marketability? What audience do you pull in? What is the financial reward of playing you in our stadium, at your stadium, at a neutral site, on TV? Or, on a world wide satellite and cable network?

The individual contracts like those Notre Dame and BYU have will be pure gold in the future, and that is what Texas wants, and won’t give up, and that will only be found in independence.