Iowa at Iowa State: Will the Hawkeye Dominance of the Cyclones Continue?

Saturday kicks off the 58th meeting between the Iowa Hawkeyes and Iowa State Cyclones.  The last couple of years have been Hawkeye blowouts, with Iowa winning 35-7 last year and 35-3 in 2009.  Will this meeting continue the trend?

Both teams started their seasons with victories.  Iowa easily handled Tennessee Tech 34-7 while Iowa State sneaked past the University of Northern Iowa 20-19.

Lest you think that is an early indicator of how this game will turn out, Iowa fans would do well to remember that it required blocked field goals on consecutive plays for Iowa to get past the Panthers in 2009.

What's more, despite the lopsided stat sheets and equally lopsided scoreboard, Iowa's performance against the Golden Eagles was far from perfect.

Over the years, this rivalry has been bitter and physical.  The outcomes of these games haven't always been indicative of the better team. For instance, in 2002, Iowa was perfect through their conference schedule.  However, their lone loss on the entire season was to the Cyclones 31-36 (a point which still haunts/infuriates many Hawkeye fans). 

So, how will this year's showdown pan out? 

That depends on a few key factors that could make all the difference in the world.

Who Protects the Football Better

It might not seem fair to continue to poke on Marcus Coker.  He is, after all, just a sophomore.  However, this is big time football kid.  Welcome to the meat grinder!

Coker showed obvious signs of being a little reckless with the football against Tennessee Tech last week.  Not only did he fumble the ball twice in the first two possessions, but even after returning to action (he was temporarily benched following the second fumble) he continued to carry the ball into traffic while having it tucked under just one arm and loosely away from his body.

If he thought the hits were surprising last week, wait until the Cyclones get hold of him.  They may not be the toughest football team Iowa will face this year, but Coker and the Hawks will be hard pressed to find any that are as fired up as this Cyclone team will be.

While those fumbles were bad, they were the only turnovers Iowa committed last week.  Iowa State, on the other hand, was not so fortunate.

Cyclone quarterback Steele Jantz threw three interceptions against the Panthers, while his defense was unable to offer the same gift back to him.  The return yards only amounted 12 and there were no pick-sixes, but it doesn't change the fact that three drives were stopped dead with costly mistakes.

The Cyclones also fumbled the ball twice, losing one of them.  Again, an opportunity was wasted on an unfortunate turnover. 

Iowa State is much better than Tennessee Tech, regardless of how much they struggled last week.  Iowa is much better than UNI, no matter how flat they looked at times.  Neither team can afford to hand the ball over to the other and give up extra opportunities.

Whoever protects the football best provides the best opportunity for victory.  It's straight forward Football 101. 

The Hawkeyes may hold the edge in this category right now, but at the moment it's a dubious honor.

Defense Win Championships

Iowa wasn't really tested by Tennessee Tech.  The Golden Eagles were outmatched at just about every position.

Still, they managed to scrape together a couple of nice pass plays over the middle and had other opportunities that they failed to capitalize on. 

Iowa's front four were able to get into the backfield on numerous occasions, but failed miserably at finishing off the play behind the line.  Multiple times, Trey Lamb scrambled around and skirted would-be tacklers, leaving them hanging in thin air as though they'd forgotten what they were back there to do. 

It's arguable as to whether or not Jantz is a better scrambling passer than Lamb was, but the Cyclones may not have to find out.  Their offensive line will likely provide better pass protection than TTU's did for Lamb. 

Still, the Golden Eagles managed to pick up a couple of decent pass plays up the middle and had opportunities for more.  

Iowa's linebackers were flying to the football and did a great job of finishing off their tackles.  If Iowa State attempts to play the horizontal attack as TTU did, Iowa's defense should be ready.  If they fire downfield though, all bets are off.  We have yet to see Iowa's deep secondary against a fully frontal attack. 

The Cyclones allowed 204 yards on the ground and gave up 385 yards overall.  Let's just say it wasn't a phenomenal showing for the 'Clone D.  They did pick up a fumble recovery, but they couldn't stop the run and gave up a touchdown through the air, despite holding UNI to under 50 percent completions and a meager 181 yards.

Both teams have things they need to be working on this week, to be sure.  Whichever team can improve on their mistakes from last week the most, will have a very strong upper hand in this contest.

Iowa State's defensive line is arguably better than Iowa's.  However, is their secondary as good as the Hawks? 

We will likely find out Saturday.

Injuries Could Be a Factor

Iowa State should be fairly solid on both lines.  I stress should be.  No, they're not as big and physical as Wisconsin's offensive line, and no, they're not as athletic and physical as Nebraska's defensive line.

Still, they should have a fairly solid core of veterans to wage their war in the trenches. 

However, injuries could affect all of that for the Cyclones.

DE Roosevelt Maggitt will be missing the Iowa game after suffering a knee injury against UNI. Maggitt may miss the entire season, but even if he returns, it won't be until well after the Hawkeyes have left town.

OT Kelechi Osemele is suffering from a sprained ankle. He should be in the lineup against Iowa, but will he be at 100 percent?  Osemele is a highly touted tackle with a very serious future in the NFL.  Having him at anything less than full speed could be a huge hindrance to the Cyclones.

DT Stephen Ruempolhamer underwent meniscus surgery a couple of weeks ago and only played a few downs all last weekend.  He should be back on the field this coming Saturday, but how ready will he be for this kind of action?

Iowa will be missing LG Nolan McMillan again this week as he continues to deal with a hernia.  That's an unfortunate loss, but Iowa still has four strong veterans up front and the unit played fairly well last week without McMillan. 

DT Carl Davis might be returning to action this week after missing last weekend with a leg injury. 

RB Mika'il McCall was a terrible loss for Iowa and he certainly could have been a difference-maker this season.  However, Iowa isn't completely devoid of talented running backs and McCall was a back-up to Coker, not the starter.

McCall's injury, while unfortunate, doesn't change much for the Hawkeyes.  McMillan's injury does change the offensive line somewhat, but probably not enough to make a major impact in this game. 

Getting Davis back can only make the defensive line stronger.

Iowa State could be hampered more by their walking-wounded than the Hawkeyes will be, and it could show up early and often in this contest.

Would the Real Slim Coker Please Stand Up?

I've already picked on Marcus for his fumbles.  We'll leave that part alone.

Still, Iowa's success may well ride on Coker's ability to be the leader Iowa needs him to be.  In Iowa's opener, Coker carried the ball 11 times for just 41 yards and no scores.  That's a rather pedestrian 3.73 yard-per-carry average, particularly when you consider that he averaged 6.64 yards per attempt against Missouri and 7.78 against Ohio State last year.

In fact, in only one game last year (vs. Michigan State) did Coker average fewer yards than he did last week against Tennessee Tech.  Was the Golden Eagle run defense that stout?  I think not.

With McCall lost for the foreseeable future, Jason White or De'Andre Johnson, either one, could be the next man in to spell Coker.  Johnson looked decent last week, picking up four yards per carry, but that was on just four attempts. 

White had only one carry and gained just one yard.

While it's not unreasonable to hope that both Johnson and White could become quality replacements for Coker, Hawkeye fans (and coaches) would rather not have to find out. 

The Hawks need Coker to be the same confident, bruising workhorse that he was late last year. 

Iowa's pass attack is good.  James Vandenberg has looked, thus far, to be a competent leader and quality quarterback.  Marvin McNutt is quickly becoming one of the better receivers in Iowa history and Keenan Davis has shown flashes of being a DJK clone, without the drama.

However, Iowa is a run-first team and has never been overly productive when forced into a one-sided offense—particularly when that one side is the pass game. 

Iowa State won't be as vanilla on defense as Tennessee Tech was.  They will play with their formations and coverages to see how Iowa responds. 

The surest way to beat that defense is with a defense-plowing Coker chewing up yards and drawing the defense in close.

Special Teams Should Be Special

So far, Mike Meyer is perfect on the 2011 season.  Against Tennessee Tech, he connected on two field goals and successfully completed four extra points.  Meyer hasn't been truly tested yet, but he's been rock solid when called on to this point.

Punter Eric Guthrie has averaged 39 yards on three punts.  While that's not a fantastic average, he hasn't been a detriment to the Hawkeyes, either. 

Iowa State's Zach Guyer has been tested even less than Meyer.  Guyer has yet to attempt a field goal, though he did hit both extra points that he attempted.

Punter Kirby Van Der Kamp however, has been stellar.  On five punts, he's averaged a very respectable 51.2 yards-per-punt and amassed 256 yards behind his golden leg. 

Special teams are so often forgotten in the greater statistical analysis of football.  However, they can set the tone for the entire game and outright win it.

With a leg like Van Der Kamp's, expect Iowa to be forced to drive the length of the field virtually every time they touch the football.  The Cyclones may not have to travel so far when it's Iowa's turn to punt the ball away.

Obviously, Iowa fans will remember the last second field goal that beat Penn State in 2008.  There's no doubt that a strong kicking game is imperative, especially when the game is tight.

Unless the score becomes lopsided (it's okay to go ahead and hope Hawkeye fans), special teams could play a big part in this football game. 

It's All About the 'Tude

They say football is 90 percent mental and 10 percent physical.  After watching this game for more than 30 years, I have come to the firm belief that this is false.

Football is 60 percent mental, 10 percent physical and 30 percent emotional.  Maybe the percentages are just a little off, but not by much.

We can't take emotion out of the game.  Sport isn't worth watching (or participating in) if emotions aren't a part of the equation. 

Emotions have to be harnessed, though.  They cannot be allowed to run unchecked like a bull in a china shop. 

The team that comes out of that tunnel emotionally charged and mentally prepared to funnel that emotion into technical proficiency has the upper hand.  They can build the momentum of the game and shape it like an ice sculpture in the hands of a master artist. 

They can steal the wind from their opponents' sails and trick them into taking chances they don't need to take.  They can set traps for their opponents to fall into.

Whoever does a better job of putting all three aspects to work is the team to fear.

No doubt, Saturday will be an exciting day of football.  A great rivalry will be relived once again at Jack Trice Stadium. 

The outcome isn't decided here on the internet.  It isn't decided on stat sheets or television interviews.  It will be decided on the field of play and—as is always the case—the one that takes care of business walks away the winner.

If Iowa wants to continue to dominate their in-state rivals from Ames, they're going to need to address all of these factors of the game.