College Football Realignment: A Different Take on the BCS Conferences, Bowls

With the SEC coaches voting to allow Texas A&M to join the conference, a final blow may have been dealt to the Big 12.  That is, of course, if a bunch of mind-numbing litigation doesn't take place in an attempt to block the move.  

However, we are not here to talk about that. We are here to discuss the future of this college football realignment musical chairs.  The way I see it, there are two possible outcomes: 1. The Big 12 remains intact and brings in BYU or Pitt, or 2. The Big 12 collapses. 

I will discuss the latter.

So it is conference Armageddon and the Big 12 has collapsed.  My question: Why is everyone focused on these four super-conferences?  I don't think the other conferences will just roll over on their automatic bids to a BCS bowl and give up on the revenue. Are the non-AQs left out again in this system?  I don't think it is that simple.  

Here is my theory.  

1. Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech will land in the even newer Pac-16.

2. Three of the four remaining Big 12 teams (Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State) will go to the Big East.  There is more than just football to look at here, and both Kansas teams provide excellent basketball teams to the already stout Big East basketball scene.  I see the Big East also picking up Navy to make 13 in football and 19 in basketball because Notre Dame will be gone.  If it wants to go to 14, watch for the conference to make a move on Houston.  I know it doesn't make geographical sense, but neither does TCU.  If the Big East wanted more football teams it could easily elevate Villanova and snag a good team from the MAC or C-USA.

3. The Big Ten will entice Missouri and Notre Dame into its midst. Notre Dame will join or pretty much be left out, making it 14 teams. However, don't think for second the the Big Ten conference is looking to settle. It wants to go to 16 teams in the future—just look at the logo.  That "G" looks an awful lot like a six. 

4. The Southeastern Conference is unconcerned with the number of teams and more with the quality of the teams that join.  Therefore, with the addition of Texas A&M it will poach Florida State from the ACC and call it a day with 14 teams as the best conference in the country.

5.  The Atlantic Coast Conference will have to recover that lost team, and I believe it will want to expand to 14 at the very least.  To do this, it will pick up East Carolina, Central Florida and Army.  Though Army isn't a powerhouse, it does have a significant base and a storied history. 

6. This leaves the Mountain West Conference, a non-AQ with some good teams in it still.  With the conference losing TCU and gaining Hawaii, Nevada and Fresno State next yea, it will have 10 teams.  However, to keep up and hope for a future as an AQ conference it will grab up Baylor, who will be left flapping in the wind after the Big 12 collapses and it will be a nice fit for them.  It will also bring back BYU because the independent market dried up with the larger conferences, and I think a deal can be worked to allow for ESPN to show Mountain West games.  To match the size of other conferences the MWC will grab up SMU and Tulsa for a total of 14 and a decent argument at replacing the Big 12 as an AQ conference.  

So to simplify here is what we are looking at:

Pac-12	Big Ten	Big East	SEC	ACC	MWC (now AQ)
Arizona	Illinois	Cincinnati	Alabama	Army	Air Force
Arizona State	Indiana	Connecticut	Arkansas	Boston College	Baylor
Cal	Iowa	Houston	Auburn	Central Florida	Boise State
Colorado	Michigan	Iowa State	Florida	Clemson	BYU
Oklahoma	Michigan State	Kansas	Florida State	Duke	Colorado State
Oklahoma State	Minnesota	Kansas State	Georgia	East Carolina	Fresno State
Oregon	Missouri	Louisville	Kentucky	Georgia Tech	Hawaii
Oregon State	Nebraska	Navy	Louisiana State	Maryland	Nevada
Stanford	Notre Dame	Pittsburgh	Mississippi	Miami	New Mexico
Texas	Northwestern	Rutgers	Mississippi State	North Carolina	San Diego State
Texas Tech	Ohio State	South Florida	South Carolina	NC State	Southern Methodist
UCLA	Penn State	Syracuse	Tennessee	Virginia	Tulsa
USC	Purdue	Texas Christian	Texas A&M	Virginia Tech	UNLV
Utah	Wisconsin	West Virginia	Vanderbilt	Wake Forest	Wyoming
Washington
Washington State

New automatic bids to the bowls:

Fiesta Bowl: MWC vs. At-Large/Big East

Rose Bowl: Pac-16 vs. Big Ten

Sugar Bowl: SEC vs. At-Large/Pac-16

Orange Bowl: ACC vs. At-Large

BCS National Championship: No. 1 vs. No. 2

The Pac-16 will get the opportunity for two bowls—since it has 16 teams—if it is high enough in rank, otherwise the Sugar Bowl can take an at-large bid. 

This is the best of every world.  All conferences expand and become stronger and we lose the pesky non-AQs from contending every year by making them an AQ. If a different non-AQ pops into the top 12 then there is still the at-large system. On top of that, every conference will have a conference championship.