College Football 2011: Breaking Down Oklahoma's Chances of Going Undefeated

As the No. 1 team in college football, Oklahoma is expected to run the table in the Big 12 and win the national championship.

But can they? Despite coping with the offseason death of Austin Box and then losing starting linebacker Travis Lewis, they did look dominant anyway in Week 1 against Tulsa.

How good are there chances to run the table?

I'll go through their schedule and show you their chances along the way.

At Florida State, Sept. 17

Oklahoma handled Florida State very easily last year, and this year heads to Tallahassee to see if they can make it twice in two years.

Going on the road to play a top five team would be too much for most teams, but not Oklahoma.

Expect both Landry Jones and Ryan Broyles to have a big game.

FSU has improved rapidly under second-year head coach Jimbo Fisher and will be tough at Doak Campbell, but ultimately, the Sooners will be prove too much for them.

Vs. Missouri, Sept. 24 and vs. Ball State, Oct. 1

Missouri is a good team and seems like a tough test for the Sooners.

But Bob Stoops doesn't lose at home, and the Tigers are still breaking in a new quarterback after Blaine Gabbert. Expect OU to win by at least 21 points.

Ball State is barely worth mentioning. A win margin of less than 35 would be disappointing.

Vs. Texas, Oct. 8

On paper this game looks like a no-problem win. But it is a rivalry game, meaning anything can happen.

Plus, Texas always has talent on both sides of the ball and are hungry to prove themselves after a trying 2010 that saw them struggle throughout the season.

Texas will give a good fight, even if they have another sub-par season.

But, Oklahoma will still be too good for them.

At Kansas, Oct. 15; vs. Texas Tech, Oct. 22; at Kansas State, Oct. 29

The truth is that none of these three games matter.

Each will be easy and each will be painful for the other team.

Kansas State has about a 1 percent chance of coming close at home, which gives them a much better chance than the other two.

Vs. Texas A&M, Nov. 5

Last season, Oklahoma received one of their two losses on the road in College Station to the underdog Aggies.

The key part of the preceding sentence is "on the road."

This year it is in Norman. OU doesn't lose in Norman. Case closed.

At Baylor, Nov. 19 and vs. Iowa State, Nov. 26

OU never has trouble with Baylor.

This year could be different. If Baylor's win over TCU is any indication of what their season will be like, Robert Griffin III is well on his way to becoming a star—and potentially a Heisman candidate.

This game will be fascinating next year, should RGIII stay for his senior year. Lache Seastrunk, who was once committed to play for the Sooners, reneged on that pledge and jumped ship to Oregon, before transferring back to Baylor after a tumultuous offseason. He'll be suiting up next year for the Bears.

But even if they have a season up to that standard, it won't be enough to beat OU.

Iowa State should just stay home.

Harsh, I know, but true.

At Oklahoma State, Dec. 3

Oklahoma finishes the season in Stillwater, facing their in-state rival Cowboys.

Last season, Oklahoma faced a similar situation with the Big 12 South title on the line. And they won a fantastic game.

They've won this rivalry game every year for nearly a decade and, though Stillwater will be a tough place to play, there is no reason to assume they'll fall to the Cowboys this year.

So, What Are Their Chances of Going 12-0?

I gotta be honest, Oklahoma has probably the best chance of any team in the FBS to go undefeated.

They get many of their better opponents at home (Texas A&M, Missouri), and the ones they do have to face on the road they have proven to be better than recently (Florida State, Oklahoma State).

If any team is going undefeated this year, it will be OU.

Percentage chance they'll be 12-0 on Dec. 4? Sixty percent.