Let's Make a Deal: How the Big Ten Should Respond to "Superconferences"

The story of the offseason in college football was conference realignment and rules violations, and these storylines have not stopped just because real football started last weekend.

The Big 12 continues to look unstable, as Texas A&M announced their intention this week to leave the ten-team conference under the assumption that the SEC will accept them.

With this latest realignment domino, the SEC would once again be a trendsetter for conference size as they would likely move to 16 teams. The era of the "superconference" would then be upon us as the Pac-12 and other conferences look to join the SEC before being left behind.

So, how should Jim Delany and the Big Ten react if these superconferences come to pass? I see three possible options for expansion that should certainly be considered.

With all due respect to Monty Hall, what's behind door No. 1?

Expansion Plan No. 1 - The Notre Dame Plan

Where else is there to begin but where the Big Ten has been before? Notre Dame at least seriously considered joining the Big Ten back in the 1990's and would be a perfect fit geographically and academically. Even if Jim Delany and the school presidents are serious about not expanding, all that would fly off the table if Notre Dame came requesting admission.

The ironic aspect of this entire superconference movement is that it could be the first steps toward a college football playoff if four superconferences of 16 teams apiece lock up the four playoff berths in a plus-one system, which is the only likely playoff scenario in the foreseeable future. The conference championship games would then be equivalent to national championship quarterfinals.

In such a system, Notre Dame and all other football independents would no longer be able to break into the BCS and receive a bounty of money by going 10-2 or better. This will be untenable for Notre Dame, which still considers itself a relevant national football program.

Thus, if the SEC and the Pac-12 each expand to 16 teams, then Notre Dame will likely need to choose whether to join the Big East in football or pull all their teams into the Big Ten. Considering the Big Ten can likely offer better television money than the Big East, Notre Dame would more than likely be forced into the Big Ten to remain relevant in FBS football.

Adding Notre Dame would also mean that the Big Ten would need to add a 14th team and likely a 15th and 16th team as well. The Big Ten would then likely raid the Big East to expand into east coast television markets and recruiting grounds. Of the Big East teams, the possible candidates for expansion would likely be limited to Louisville, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Syracuse and Rutgers. Grabbing Maryland or Virginia Tech from the ACC would also be possibilities.

Although Louisville, WVU and Pittsburgh make the most sense geographically, the bigger markets to grab would be Maryland for the DC area and Syracuse for the New York area. Louisville is more likely to move than West Virginia from the Big East, so the Cardinals would be the last addition. Thus, I would expect the Big Ten to grab Notre Dame, Maryland, Syracuse and Louisville.

So, would you take the Big Ten with an east coast and Catholic flavor? Or would you like to trade that in for what's behind door No. 2?

Expansion Plan No. 2 - The Big 12 Remnants

Assuming Notre Dame goes to the Big East or refuses to join a superconference, then the next option would be to expand west by putting a fence around the entire Great Lakes and Midwest regions of the country.

When Texas A&M leaves for the SEC and Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Texas leave for the Pac-16, that leaves Baylor, Missouri, Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State to pick up the pieces and find a new home. Baylor is too far of a stretch geographically for a middling program, so that leaves the four former North Division schools.

However, just because there are four schools does not mean the Big Ten would take them all. In fact, Iowa State brings absolutely nothing to the table considering the Iowa market is already covered by the Hawkeyes, and ISU is not a major player in athletics or academics. Therefore, it would be shocking if the Big Ten grabbed Iowa State.

The other three schools do make sense as all three expand the footprint of the Big Ten and give Nebraska and Iowa some more regional rivalries. Kansas also brings basketball excellence to the conference, which cannot be undervalued.

This leaves one slot to fill. Perhaps the most likely candidates are east coast teams such as Maryland or Syracuse. Another option would be to go boldly west and take what appears to be a solid football program in Boise State. With the doors to the center of the country open to the Broncos, the recruiting should stay on the same level and would keep BSU competitive in a Big Ten superconference.

All that being said, Penn State will likely have enough clout to force the Big Ten to grab an east coast rival for them rather than going all west. Maryland fits the bill best and gets added.

Plan number two calls for Missouri, Kansas, Kansas State and Maryland to join the Big Ten (Maryland would have to leave behind those atrocious Labor Day uniforms forever to be allowed to join). Would you like to trade that away for what's behind door No. 3?

Expansion Plan No. 3 - Raid The South

The dominance of the SEC in college football can be traced to many factors, but the most compelling factor is the movement of America's population into the Sun Belt. This population movement has led to many more five-star and four-star recruits being located in SEC country.

The Big Ten could decide to battle the SEC by jumping into their recruiting backyards by adding schools in those southern states. Assuming that the SEC is off limits, the more southern schools in the ACC and the Big East are likely targets for addition in this strategy. Let's assume the SEC gets to 16 by adding Texas A&M, Clemson, Florida State and Missouri, as reported initially.

A first target would be the state of Florida. The Gators and Seminoles would be off the table, and Miami has too much negative baggage to bring in, so that leaves South Florida from the Big East. This move would make sense for getting more recruits from the Florida market, and USF is already used to playing mostly against northern schools.

A second target would be the state of Texas. Most of the major targets would already be eaten up by the SEC and the Pac-16, but Baylor, TCU and Houston all remain. Houston would bring in a huge market, but that market could also come in from better programs at the other two schools. Considering that TCU has moved already, that would be the likely choice.

To hit the state of Georgia and capture the Atlanta market, Georgia Tech could be added as a third new team. The final choice is a tough one between West Virginia, Virginia Tech and Maryland. Maryland has been the obvious choice, but with other seemingly weaker programs joining the conference, I anticipate that Virginia Tech would be the choice.

So, to capture the south, the Big Ten would grab South Florida, TCU, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech.

What The Big Ten Should Do

Despite all these possible machinations of teams to add, the best thing for the Big Ten may be to resist the urge to become a superconference, even if the SEC and Pac-16 go that route. There is absolutely no possibility that a plus-one playoff system could cut out the Big Ten schools with 64 other schools in four other superconferences.

The Big Ten has made undeniably good moves the last two times they have chosen to expand. Even if Notre Dame is added to the conference, each of the plans above would not produce the same excitement and buzz as the additions of Penn State and Nebraska.

A conference loses marquee matchups and television money if more middling teams are added to take a cut of the pie. Plus, the Big Ten values the ability to have their student athletes play every other team during a four year stint, and that would become impossible with 16 teams. The superconference may not work out as well as intended (see the WAC a couple decades ago for an example), and then the conferences may retract and realign once more.

If the Big Ten stays at 12 members, then the pain of expanding and contracting can be avoided entirely while keeping the current members better off financially in the long run. The Big Ten values tradition perhaps more than any other conference, so this may be the most likely and most proper course of action in a superconference era.

However, if you forced me to pick one of the plans I laid out, I would take Expansion Plan No. 2. Notre Dame will be nearly impossible to convince to join and the third expansion plan does not bring nearly enough buzz.

However, there are many other ways this process could shake out, and it will certainly be fun to watch the dominoes fall. Thanks for reading!