NFL Picks against the Spread Week 1: Where Is the Smart Money Going?

Week 1 of the 2011 NFL season has arrived, and casual bettors will be flocking to Las Vegas in great numbers for the opening weekend.

Professional bettors have been playing around with the lines for weeks, as many sports books released numbers once the NFL lockout was lifted.

Let’s take a look at where the sharp money went and where it will likely go over the next few days.

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-4)

The last two NFL teams to capture the Lombardi Trophy square off inside Lambeau Field in Thursday night’s season opener.

Linesmakers opened Green Bay as five-point favorites, and it was immediately bet down to its current odds.

It’s important to note that this line spent less than an hour at 3.5 two days ago—signaling to me that sharp money is clearly still on the dog.

The line is enticing for bettors on both sides and both coaches have enjoyed success in Week 1 during their careers.

Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Chicago Bears

This NFC contest is currently second in terms of betting action—just a notch below the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins matchup. 

Tom Terrific certainly draws a crowd.

Atlanta is being heavily supported at the windows, which has caused the opening line to move three points from a pick 'em to its current resting place.

It’s likely to stay in this position, as the oddsmaker was gutsy enough to make the Falcons a road favorite in last year’s opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers—without the services of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (suspension) of course.

Smart money found its way on Atlanta early—mainly due to the squad’s 5-1 ATS mark when laying points away from the Georgia Dome last year.

Chicago’s 5-2 ATS mark as a home underdog may turn out being the smartest trend of all.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-9)

An extremely sharp play was taking the Houston Texans as a two-point home favorite when the line opened in late July.

That’s smart money—considering that everyone found out that Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning had undergone his second neck surgery.

It’s a lot easier to recover from such a procedure when you’re younger—the sharps knew there was a legitimate chance that No. 18 would be missing from the 2011 season opener.

Next.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)

Kansas City has dropped from a solid touchdown favorite to its current spot due to head coach Todd Haley’s preseason shortcomings.

Consider this as well—the Chiefs were seven-point favorites in a 13-10 win over the Buffalo Bills on Oct. 31, 2010.  That particular game proceeded back-to-back road contests against division rivals.

Smart money will once again start backing the Chiefs due to their next two games coming on the road against the Detroit Lions and San Diego Chargers.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)

This is one of those games that casual bettors consider a coin flip and will likely back the slight home favorite. 

Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson’s holdout was never a factor, as Vegas linesmakers held steady. 

At the time of this writing, this AFC matchup is BY FAR the least best game on the entire board.

Smart money may elect to take the Jaguars due to the quarterback matchup, as Titans signal-caller Matt Hasselbeck is 24-46-3 ATS on the road in his career.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-6.5)

Smart money poured into the Cleveland Browns when they opened as three-point home favorites in this contest. 

The entire line move created by sharps was based on Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer sticking to his planned retirement and never wearing the jersey again.

It’s simply a middling opportunity for professionals at this point—each time the line reaches the magic number of seven—which it did for a 60-second period last week.

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at St. Louis Rams

The offseason acquisitions by the Eagles has actually driven more public action into this line than normal.  It’s been a steady climb up from the opening number of 3.5.

Smart money has been buying up the Rams whenever the line reaches five, which will likely be seen again over the next five days.

St. Louis is going to be a bet by numerous “wise guys” this week.

Don’t miss out on getting the best number.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-1)

It’s impossible for ESPN, not to mention Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s impressive record against the Baltimore Ravens.

Baltimore held steady as 2.5-point home favorites through the preseason, but the “Terrible Towels” have gotten involved in the betting.

Smart money is letting the market play itself out, as eight percent of the tickets being punched have the defending AFC champions on them.

Few professionals will get involved unless the favorite role lands squarely on the visitors come kickoff.

Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)

Smart money immediately jumped on the Detroit Lions after their resounding preseason win over the New England Patriots.  The entire move from three-point underdogs to its current spot happened on Aug. 29.

There’s been no buy-back in the line, which tells me that the sharps are happy with their current position. 

It’s highly unlikely that this line will move any more in favor of the Buccaneers, as the middle exposure would be too great for the bookmakers to handle in Week 1.

A wait and see approach.

Minnesota Vikings at San Diego Chargers (-9)

This game is one contest that sharp bettors may actually get involved on the favorite towards kickoff, as the public will continue to hear about the Chargers early struggles throughout the week. 

As you can see from all 16 lines, the linesmaker would like to stay away from any double-digit spreads in Week 1.

The line seems to be on the verge of moving a half-point lower, which may signal a play on San Diego’s 35-17 ATS mark as a home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

New York Giants (-3) at Washington Redskins

Las Vegas released the New York Giants as three-point road favorites, and smart money backed the side due to the departure of Washington Redskins quarterback Donovan McNabb from the nation’s capitol.

The line has never moved above four and will likely bounce around the 3.5-point mark right into kickoff.

Watch the number closely from here on out, as sharp bettors will let you know their thoughts on the Redskins new starter—Rex Grossman.

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (-7)

Smart money backed the Arizona Cardinals quickly when opening as a three-point home favorite, as warranted speculation was rampant about the possible trade to acquire Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Kevin Kolb.

The line moved another two points over the middle of August when it was becoming apparent that Carolina would start rookie quarterback Cam Newton.

Any continued movement past a key betting number is likely a continued signal of fading the Panthers in their season opener.

Seattle Seahawks at SF 49ers (-5.5)

One of the more evenly bet games on Sunday’s card and preseason results have caused some movement.

Casual bettors have been unimpressed with San Francisco scoring a combined 47 points in four preseason games.

Smart money isn’t quite involved yet but has grabbed the Seahawks whenever the line reaches six.

Some of the sharpest handicappers I know have stated one important fact in this matchup—Seattle’s Pete Carroll is probably best equipped to game plan against San Francisco’s first-year head coach Jim Harbaugh from their Pac-10 days.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets (-4.5)

Bettors are always going to jump at the opportunity of backing “America’s Team” as an underdog.

Professionals are really sitting on the sidelines to see where the market goes, as linesmakers may have sent this game out at the perfect number.  Early wagering has been evenly split since the last week in July.

Smart money may actually venture into playing the New York Jets on the moneyline if the price is right towards kickoff.

New England Patriots (-7) at Miami Dolphins

New England opened up as four-point road favorites and sat at that level until the roster started to chance after the lockout. 

Sharp bettors noticed key members of Miami’s “Wild Cat” offense leaving South Beach and knew that Patriots head coach Bill Belichick would be relieved.

The departures of Dolphins’ running backs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams opened the floodgates, but only moved the line a single point.

New England’s first two preseason games caused the public to get involved, and now, everyone waits.

If the line fails to move above its current spot—smart money is holding it there due to the Patriots being one-point underdogs in Miami a year ago.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3)

Sharp bettors played the Raiders early on due to the quarterback controversy in the Mile High City and the potential of the Broncos to select Tim Tebow the starter.

The early action caused the opening line to move from Denver as 1.5-point home favorites to a pick 'em. 

Professionals were quick to jump horses and land on the Broncos once Kyle Orton was named the guy by new head coach John Fox.

It didn’t matter who the starter was last year, as the Raiders clobbered the Broncos by a combined 98-37 margin in the two meetings.