NCAA College Football: 10 Teams Most Likely Break into AP Top 10

The Associated Press sportswriters who vote for the preseason Top 25 have a thankless job. Like local television weathermen, no one remembers when their predictions are accurate, and everyone screams about how little they know when they are wrong. Unfortunately for the AP, they are often wrong about their preseason Top 10.

Last season, the AP ranked the eventual BCS National Champions the Auburn Tigers at 22 in the preseason poll; their opponent in the title game, the Oregon Ducks were ranked 11. Since 2005, at least four teams in the Top 10 of the AP preseason poll each season finished the year outside of it.

Undoubtedly this year teams outside of the AP preseason Top 10 will play their way into group by the time the 2011 college football campaign concludes. Here are 10 teams with the best chance of breaking their way into the AP Top 10, starting with the greatest long shots, and finishing with the near locks.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Finishing with a 10-3 mark last season, the Razorbacks established themselves as a program on the rise in the SEC. They return 15 starters from last season, including an experienced receiving core led by senior Joe Adams. Adams hauled in 50 receptions for 813 yards and six touchdowns last season.

Starting quarterback Tyler Wilson threw only 51 passes last year, and he will have to prove his mettle in difficult road games against Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU. Losing running back Knile Davis to an ankle injury will hurt the Razorbacks’ odds of finishing the season in the AP Top 10, but an experienced back seven on defense will keep them in games.

Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia Head Coach Mark Richt may very well be coaching for his job this season, but he has a few things working to his advantage. The Bulldogs play their toughest opponents in, or near, their own backyard. They will take on Boise State in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, but welcome South Carolina, Mississippi State and Florida into Athens.

The Dawgs’ defensive front is inexperienced, but defensive lineman Kwame Geathers, Deangelo Tyson and Abry Jones have the potential to be formidable by mid-season. In the early stages of the season, the defense will lean on a veteran secondary, led by cornerbacks Sanders Commings and Brandon Boykin. Commings and Boykin combined for seven picks in the 2010 season.

Sophomore quarterback Aaron Murray shows promise, throwing for 24 touchdowns against only eight interceptions last season, but he is going to need his receivers to step up if Georgia is to make it into the Top 10.  Junior wide receiver Tavarres King snagged 27 receptions last season, the most among receivers on the roster in 2011.

Virginia Tech Hokies

Here is an SAT analogy for you: Virginia Tech is to college football what Michigan State is to college basketball. Season after season, each team quietly piles up wins and, lo and behold, at the end of the year they can be found in the postseason mix. Expect the 2011 college football season to be no different for the Hokies.

Virginia Tech’s non-conference schedule is a far cry from last season when they started the year against Boise State and finished it with Stanford. This year they play Appalachian State, East Carolina, Arkansas State and Marshall out of conference. Barring they do not sleepwalk to the ACC, they should be 4-0 heading into conference play. The Hokies have no difficult road contests and do not play Florida State—the consensus cream of the ACC crop.

The Hokies do have some question marks. Tyrod Taylor will be a challenge to replace, and sophomore quarterback Logan Thomas completed a paltry 12 passes in 26 attempts last season. The inexperience does not end there, as the defense starts six sophomores. But if history has taught us anything, Head Coach Frank Beamer will have Virginia Tech ready to dominate on defense and special teams, and if the young team scores early victories, they will head into conference play with confidence.

Arizona State Sun Devils

The Sun Devils look to emerge from the middle of the PAC 12 and come on strong in 2011, and they have the new jerseys to prove it. Four good wide receivers will line up for ASU this season; their individual numbers will not overwhelm you, but the team can spread out opposing defenses and take advantage of mismatches. Expect junior running back Cameron Marshall to rush for over 1000 yards and double-digit touchdowns this season. The defense will be improved as well, with eight starters in either their junior or senior years.

Arizona State’s toughest opponent this season may be the schedule. While they play USC, Missouri, Oregon State, and rival Arizona in front of the home students, they play four of their middle five games on the road, including division contests against Utah and Oregon.  If they can win two of three against the Trojans, Utes and Ducks, anticipate seeing the Sun Devils in the AP Top 10 at season’s end.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

No team has the tradition of the Fighting Irish; when they walk on the field, they bring the ghosts of national champions past with them. This season, those ghosts may carry Notre Dame into the top ten.

Entering 2011, Notre Dame is riding the momentum of a bowl victory over the Miami Hurricanes, and head coach Brian Kelly has the Irish ready to rise to prominence. Offensively, Kelly will need greater production from senior quarterback Dayne Crist, who completed a pedestrian 59.2 percent of passes en route to a 4-5 record as a starter. Crist will have plenty of talent to throw the ball to, led by junior wide receiver Michael Floyd who hauled in 79 receptions for over 1000 yards and 12 touchdowns. On the other side of the ball, senior safety Harrison Smith and an experienced defensive unit are ready for primetime and should improve on giving up approximately 20 points per game last season.

Notre Dame’s toughest opponents—South Florida, USC and Michigan State—come to South Bend, and while they have to play across the country at Stanford and in the Wolverines’ hostile big house, if they Irish find a little luck, they may win 10 games and finish in the top ten in 2011.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Including a 59-14 drubbing of Memphis on Thursday night, Mississippi State has won three consecutive games going back to the 2010 season. The Bulldogs’ toughest tests—LSU, South Carolina, and Alabama—will all be played in Starkville. Don’t underestimate their SEC road schedule, as they visit Auburn, Georgia, and Arkansas.

Head Coach Dan Mullen has plenty of weapons at his disposal. He will need improved play from senior quarterback Chris Relf, who completed less than 60 percent of his passes last season. Relf took a step forward against Memphis. He threw for 200 yards and completed 13 of his 21 passes, two of which went for touchdowns.

Senior running back Vick Ballard is poised for a breakout season. Ballard ran for 968 yards and 19 touchdowns last season, and is not letting up. He rushed for an eye-catching 166 yards and three touchdowns in the season opener.

The Bulldogs will light up the scoreboard this season, and if they get a decent defensive effort, expect them to skyrocket up the AP poll.

USC Trojans

USC is serving the final year of its bowl ban, and that makes them dangerous. Every Trojan, including Head Coach Lane Kiffin will enter each game as if it is a BCS bowl to send a warning to every school with hopes to compete for the 2012 BCS National Championship.

Quarterback Matt Barkley is auditioning for the NFL, and Robert Woods and Brice Butler are talented receivers. The defense brings back seven lettermen, and the entire team is playing with a Coliseum-sized chip on its shoulder.

The Trojans play seven of their twelve games at home, but they do go to Arizona State, Notre Dame and Oregon. The NCAA might keep USC out of a bowl, but their play will launch the Trojans into the Top 10.

Michigan State Spartans

Michigan State begins the 2011 football season with an intimidating bevy of offensive weapons. Quarterback Kirk Cousins enters his senior season battle-tested and primed for a run at the Big Ten championship. Cousins completed 66.9 percent of his passes last year, and had an efficient 20 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions.

Cousins doesn't shoulder the burden alone. Junior running back Edwin Baker ran for over 1200 yards and rushed for 13 touchdowns last season, and wide receivers B.J. Cunningham and Keshawn Martin give Cousins potent options on the outside. 

Defensive lineman Jerel Worthy and William Gholston must apply pressure to the quarterback to assist an inexperienced group of defensive backs. The Spartans defense is off to a smashing start, giving up only six points to Youngstown State. Mark Dantonio will have to coach his team through hostile road games against Ohio State, Iowa and Nebraska, but do not expect the Spartans to drop more than two games in 2011.

Wisconsin Badgers

Imagine using a napkin to cover yourself from rain. You might be able to stop a few drops for a short period, but eventually you will end up soaked and shivering. Now you know what it is like for defensive coordinators scheming against the Wisconsin Badgers.

The Badgers high-powered offense was on full display Thursday night against UNLV behind senior quarterback Russell Wilson, powerful running backs Montee Ball and James White and senior wide receiver Nick Toon. Wilson went an impressive 10 for 13 for 255 yards and two touchdowns through the air. He also rushed for 62 yards and a score. White and Ball ran for a combined 127 yards and four touchdowns, and Toon caught two passes for 54 yards. Wisconsin will give defenses fits all season as most teams do not have enough talent to take away all of their weapons. Through the air and on the ground, the Badgers are loaded.

The Badgers face tests with consecutive October trips to Michigan State and Ohio State, but if they keep turning football games into track meets, they will finish in the AP Top 10.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Expectations are high in Columbia, South Carolina this year. The Gamecocks outplayed their 9-5 record last season, and Head Coach Steve Spurrier has his team primed for another run at the SEC East crown. South Carolina has the offensive ingredients to finish the season in the Top 10, and potentially receive a BCS bowl berth.

Senior quarterback Stephen Garcia had issues off the field in 2011, but nothing is suspect about his on-the-field performance last season. Garcia racked up 3059 passing yards and threw 20 touchdowns. At the running back position, sophomore Marcus Lattimore is the focal point for South Carolina. Lattimore ran for nearly 1200 yards and crossed the goal line 17 times last season. Expect Lattimore to charge through defenses and receive some outside Heisman trophy consideration. Junior wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey will stretch opposing defenses. At 6’4”, Jeffrey gives Garcia a big target downfield. It is hard to imagine Jeffrey improving on 2010’s 1517 receiving yards and nine touchdowns, but he will have an even bigger impact in 2011.

The Gamecocks defensive unit is experienced with 10 seniors and juniors taking the field. The defensive line will enjoy a tremendous collective season behind defensive ends Melvin Ingram and Devin Taylor. Ingram had fewer than 30 tackles, but he sacked the quarterback nine times, while Taylor racked up 46 tackles and 7.5 sacks in 2010. The line backing corps lacks game experience, but the defensive line’s quarterback pressure will buoy the front seven.

The Gamecocks have consecutive tough road games against Mississippi State, Arkansas and Tennessee, but they play Auburn, Clemson and Florida at home. South Carolina will win 10 games this season and finish in the AP Top 10.

The Inexact Science of a College Football Preseason Prediction

Just like the AP preseason poll, some of these predictions are destined for failure. Maybe Notre Dame will not be good enough defensively to keep up with their opponents. It is possible that Ryan Mallett was the key to Arkansas success last season. If Ohio State plays to prove to the world they do not need Terrelle Pryor to win, they could end up in the final Top 10. Matters are complicated further by unpredictable injuries. If Russell Wilson goes down, where does that leave Wisconsin?

Whether I am right about all or none of these teams, there is one thing I am absolutely sure about: the tumult in the AP Top 10 will be fun to watch. It always is.