TCU vs. Baylor Upset Alert: Horned Frogs Trail Bears in Third Quarter, 40-23

Just 40 minutes into the 2011 college football season, the 14th-ranked TCU Horned Frogs find themselves in an unexpectedly tough spot. Gary Patterson's team trails Baylor 40-23 in the third quarter under the Friday night lights at Floyd Casey Stadium in Waco, Texas.

To this point, the Bears have absolutely burned the vaunted Horned Frogs defense, which was the top-ranked unit in the country last season.

The Mountain West newcomers have already surrendered more yards to Baylor in less than three quarters of play than they gave up to any single team during an entire game last season.

The 34 points allowed in the first half would have also constituted a high-water mark for the Frogs if not for the fact that they gave up 35 points to San Diego State last season.

This, after stifling Baylor's attack last season in Fort Worth on the way to a 45-10 trouncing.

What's Gone Wrong

TCU just can't seem to stop Baylor's terrific tandem of junior quarterback Robert Griffin and senior wide receiver Kendall Wright. Thus far, Griffin has completed 16 of his 19 throws for 285 yards and four touchdowns.

Wright has accounted for the vast majority of that production, hauling in 10 balls for 172 yards and two scores while throwing for a 40-yard touchdown of his own.

Those two have made mincemeat of the Frogs' revamped secondary while running back Terrance Ganaway has done the same to TCU's front seven. The senior has already eclipsed the 100-yard mark for the game on 17 first-half carries, with a scamper to the end zone to boot.

Meanwhile, TCU's offense has been steady, if not spectacular, though the pressure figures to mount on the young shoulders of sophomore quarterback Casey Pachall, in his first game as Andy Dalton's replacement, in the second half if the defense doesn't figure out a way to befuddle the Bears offense.

What’s At Stake?

Win or lose, TCU will still be one of the top contenders to triumph in the Mountain West. Of course, a defeat to an underdog program like Baylor may not bode well for the Horned Frogs' confidence; if anything, TCU's defense has already been exposed as something of a suspect unit.

In the grander scheme, though, a loss here all but eliminates TCU from contending for a third consecutive BCS bowl berth. The Frogs won't have much hope of playing on or after New Year's Day 2012 if they have any sort of blemish on their season record.

As for the Bears, a win over a high-profile in-state rival like TCU can only boost their team esteem while serving notice to the Big 12 that they're for real this time around.

Upset Potential (1-10 on if this can actually happen)

 This one checks in as a solid "8". The Horned Frogs' mountain is certainly no molehill in this case, as they face a double-digit deficit on the road against a BCS conference team with a first-time starter under center.

How Will Voters React?

 In a word, negatively. Pollsters don't tend to stick their neck out for non-BCS teams. Defense has long been TCU's calling card, but the team has clearly struggled on that side of the ball to this point. Don't expect even the boldest of voters to stand behind the Horned Frogs if their defensive woes continue.

Will TCU Come Back?

Most likely. The Horned Frogs clearly miss Dalton's leadership on offense, but they still have plenty of talent and experience on both sides of the ball remaining from the 2011 Rose Bowl Game champions to lead them back against a football team that's had so many false starts to the season over the years.

Who Benefits Most From TCU’s collapse?

Pretty much everyone in the Big 12. If a team like Baylor, picked preseason to finish toward the bottom of the conference, can score a win over a Top 25 team with as strong a pedigree as TCU, then a victory over the Bears will mean that much more for whichever of the other nine schools in the league pull through.

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