College Football Week One: Big Ten Preview

Week 1 is finally here.

With the first of twelve (12!) non-conference Big Ten games in the books—courtesy of Wisconsin's new scorched earth offense and UNLV's "We're UNLV" defense—the Big Ten already sits at a perfect record of 1-0 for Week 1.  With 11 courses left, and most of them being sweet, sweet desserts, the Big Ten will look to put together a perfect 12-0 this week.

Is it possible?  Lets take a look at the schedule and make our predictions.

Michigan State vs. Youngstown State

Friday, 7:30PM, Big Ten Network:  East Lansing, MI

The Opponent:  Youngstown State University Penguins (FCS)

Youngstown State is better known for its contribution to the major college football coaching ranks than it is for the football played at the school.  Former OSU head coach Jim Tressel cut his teeth in Youngstown before moving up to Columbus, and one of his defensive coordinators there was none other than current MSU head coach Mark Dantonio.

While the reunion should be sweet for coach D, the Penguins have a harder road ahead.  The Penguins were 3-8 last year despite a very good offense (16th total, 19th scoring in FCS).  However, defense and turnover margin were the Penguins undoing.

If this trend continues, it could be a long Friday night.

Key to the Offense:

 The Michigan State offensive line:  MSU is going to be breaking in three new starters on the offensive line at both tackle positions as well as center.  While YSU won't offer a lot of defensive resistance, it will be a bad sign for the Spartans if the running backs aren't able to rush for at least six yards per carry. Also, watch how the tackles hold up in pass protection against a mediocre defensive line.  If QB Kirk Cousin's jersey stays clean Spartan fans can breathe a sigh of relief.

Key to the Defense:

The Michigan State defensive line:  One area that the Spartans need to improve in 2011 is the pass rush.  YSU was 22nd in sacks allowed last year, and with what one can assume will be a big Spartan lead early, the Penguins should be forced to pass early and often.  MSU's defensive line needs to set up shop in the backfield, if only to show that they can.

Player(s) To watch:

William Gholston:  Gholston only got spot time as a freshman, but he has the raw athleticism to be a real force on the defensive line for seasons to come.  Physically he should be well ahead of anything YSU has at OT.  A quiet game is a bad sign.

Prediction:  Michigan State 45, YSU 17

Northwestern at Boston College

Saturday, 12:00PM, ESPNU: Chestnut Hill, MA

The Opponent: Boston College Eagles (ACC)

The Eagles rode to a 7-6 record in 2010 on the back of what was one of the better defenses in the nation.  BC managed the number one rushing yardage defense in the nation (82 yards per game) while being 13th in total defense and 19th in both pass efficiency defense and scoring defense (19.5 ppg). The defense gets back six starters, including MLB Luke Kuechly, who totaled an FBS leading 183 tackles last year.    

This must have made for ugly practices, as the BC offense was barely able to move the ball against even mediocre defenses, ranking 109th in both total offense (299 ypg) and scoring offense (18.5 ppg). The Eagles return running back Montel Harris (3600 career yards) and sophomore Andre Williams (461 yards in 2010), along with talent at receiver.  However, sophomore quarterback Chris Rettig will have to step up after finishing the season, and he will have to do it behind an O-line that replaces three starters—one an All-American.  Molding this unit into something productive will be a big task for new coordinator Kevin Rogers.

Key to the Offense:

Find a way—any way—to move the ball against this Eagle defense.  Boston College is about as stout a rush defense as you will find, which doesn't play into NU's hands.  However, if there was one area in which the Eagles struggled in 2010, it was pass defense (76th in pass yardage defense, and 90th in sacks).  QB Dan Persa and Co. will have to move the ball through the air, or it will be a long afternoon.

Key to the Defense:

With an inexperienced quarterback but two productive running backs, look for BC to push the ground game early to loosen up the NU defense.  If Northwestern is serious about contending for a Big Ten title, finding a way to improve its rush defense is step one.  Against a team that will lean heavily on the running game, this is a perfect opportunity.

Player(s) To Watch:

MLB David Nwabuisi and SLB Ben Johnson: The two new guys in the middle of the NU defense are going to have to grow up quick.

Prediction: Northwestern 23,  Boston College 21 

Ohio State vs. Akron

Saturday, 12:00PM, ESPN: Columbus, OH

The Opponent: Akron University Zips (MAC)

Akron isn't just another MAC team.  Akron is a very, very bad MAC team.  Akron ranked in the bottom 20 of FBS in eleven different statistical categories on its way to 11 losses. (The lone win against Buffalo in the final week of the season saved the 0-fer.)

This could very well be the worst team playing in the FBS.  The less said about Akron, the better.

Key to the Offense:

In-game reps.  The running game is still a question mark against real teams with Dan Herron out for the first five games.  With Jordan Hall also sitting this will be a good excuse to play everyone.  The offensive line should also see lots of switching in order to get guys comfortable playing.  Nobody is going to make a decision in the quarterback race based on a game against Akron, so just get both guys some early snaps and let the backups fight for third string.

Key to the Defense:

Total and complete destruction.  Seriously.  If OSU allows Akron within field goal range it should be considered a disaster.  The starters shouldn't play past halftime, and the Buckeyes should use the second half to get all the younger players acclimated to the college football game atmosphere—tough to do when you play a glorified high school team.

Player(s) To Watch:

QB Braxton Miller:  He probably played better teams last year.  As a senior.  In high school.  But this is his first game in the Shoe, and as long as he doesn't pee his pants at midfield, he will be fine.

Prediction: Pain...Seriously.  OSU 55,  Akron 7 

Penn State vs. Indiana State

Saturday, 12:00PM, BTN:  State College, PA

The Opponent:  Indiana State University Sycamores (FCS)

Indiana State was a wonderfully average FCS team in 2010.  With a final record of 6-5, marquee losses against Cincinnati, and marquee wins against nobody you know or care about, the Sycamores are simply a cold, dead lump to help fill the bodybag that is the Big Ten non-conference schedule.

The Sycamores were a good rushing team (193 ypg, 21st in FCS), but turrible at defense (29 ppg). 

Key to the Offense:

Evaluate the quarterbacks:  Penn State doesn't have as much room for error as other non-conference schools.  With Alabama coming to town next week, Joe Pa and his staff have to make a quarterback decision that isn't "What the hell, we'll play both."  While Indiana State isn't a tough defensive test, it should be used to confirm in the coach's mind who QB No. 1 is (assuming there is a favorite).  Penn State doesn't have much time to put off the decision.

Key to the Defense:

Stop the run:  Indiana State will try to run the ball, and Penn State struggled to stop the run last year. This is a good opportunity to get everyone on the defense focused on shutting down running lanes before Trent Richardson comes to town next week.

Player(s) To Watch:

QB Rob Bolden:  As the most promising QB left on the roster, one has to believe that Bolden has the slight advantage.  If he plays flawlessly against the Sycamores it could give the coaches enough faith to ride him through rough patches next week against the Roll Tide. 

Prediction: Penn State 38,  Indiana State 14 

Iowa vs. Tennessee Tech

Saturday, 12:00PM, BTN:  Iowa City, IA

The Opponent:  Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles (FCS)

Thank the BCS-Industrial complex for guaranteeing that nobody plays anybody remotely interesting in the non-conference schedule.  TTU is another mediocre FCS team looking for a big payday.  The Golden Eagles started last season out against Arkansas and TCU, losing by a combined score of 106 - 10 and then going 5-4 in the rest of its games.  With a below average offense (70's in both scoring and total offense) and a worse defense, don't look for much of a fight.

Key to the Offense:

Establish the run:  Iowa is going to lean on running back Marcus Coker a lot this season, and getting him moving early in the game should make the final score of this one purely academic by midway through the second quarter.

Key to the Defense:

Health:  Nothing to prove here.  Get the starters some reps, crush TTU's hopes and dreams, then let the backups run free for a half.

Player(s) To Watch:

QB/Patriot James Vandenberg:  If he doesn't tear up during the national anthem, he might not love America enough to guide the Hawkeyes to a double-digit win season.  This is literally the biggest question mark hanging over his head going into this game.  Thanks BCS formula. 

Prediction: Iowa 45, Tennessee Tech 10 

Purdue vs. Middle Tennessee State

Saturday, 12:00PM, BTN:  West Lafayette, IN

The Opponent:  Middle Tennessee State University Blue Raiders (Sun Belt)

The Blue Raiders offer what might be one of only two worthy opponents this Saturday.  MTSU was 6-7 last year, and decidedly average at pretty much everything except rushing offense (31st nationally at 180 ypg) and turnover margin (dead last at 120th with -1.46).  The defense only returns three starters, which could pose a problem, but the offense brings back seven, although they are mired in a QB controversy.

Key to the Offense:

Establish a running game:  Yeah, I know, it's cliche.  But in this case, it holds true.  Purdue isn't going to be passing on anybody with Caleb TerBush taking snaps, even if it is an inexperienced Blue Raider defense.  If the Boilermakers get bottled up on the ground the odds of putting up enough points to win are slim.

Key to the Defense:

Force turnovers:  Purdue isn't the kind of defense that imposes its iron will on other teams, but MTSU had a great deal of turnover problems last year.  If Purdue can capitalize on a few takeaways—especially setting up short fields—the Boilermakers could build an early lead and coast on the power of the running game.

Player(s) To Watch:

RB Ralph Bolden:  Two years ago Bolden broke out against Toledo with 234 yards and two touchdowns.  After spending a year on the sideline, this is the perfect opportunity for Bolden to reassert himself at the top of the depth chart.

Prediction: Purdue 21, MTSU 20 

Minnesota at USC

Saturday, 3:30PM, ABC/ESPN:  Los Angeles, CA

The Opponent:  The University of Southern California (Pac-12)

These aren't your daddy's Trojans, but that doesn't mean USC is washed up.  Entering the season ranked 25th in the polls, Lane Kiffin's team is looking to build some momentum toward a future that doesn't include crippling NCAA sanctions.

Having Matt Barkley at quarterback is one way to build success.  The junior quarterback is looking to finally have his breakout season after struggling the last two.  USC's leading rusher from last year, Marc Tyler, will be sitting this game out due to a suspension, but Dillon Baxter has the talent and practice hype to be an explosive replacement.  The big questions are at O-line and receiver, but, again, this is USC.  Lane Kiffin can't throw a rock at practice without hitting a 4-star prospect.

Defensively, despite being in the top 50 in rushing defense and passing efficiency defense in 2010, the Trojans were ranked in the 80's in both total and scoring defense.  With seven starters returning, and a battle-tested secondary mostly back from last year, the Trojans could make a move to above average in defense this year.

Key to the Offense:

Protect the ball:  With MarQueis Gray making his first start, the Gophers are going to be susceptible to turnovers, which against a solid team like USC could be a killer.  If Minnesota can keep the turnover margin equal, it could have a chance to steal this one late.

Key to the Defense:

Control the ground:  With Marc Tyler out for the game and questions all over the offensive line, Minnesota has a perfect opportunity to force the Trojans into lots of passing downs by keeping the USC running game bottled up on first and second down.  If Barkley has to convert a lot of third-and-longs to his young receiving corps, the Gophers will have better odds of getting a few stops, and maybe an interception or two. 

Player(s) To Watch:

QB MarQueis Gray:  Nobody knows what to expect out of Gray after two years spent primarily catching passes, not throwing them.  If Gray can make a few big plays and protect the ball it might be enough for a win.

Prediction: USC 28, Minnesota 24 

Michigan vs. Western Michigan

Saturday, 3:30PM, ABC/ESPN:  Ann Arbor, MI

The Opponent:  Western Michigan University (MAC)

The Broncos are going to throw the ball.  In 2010 the passing offense was good for 16th in the nation with 285 yards per game.  Quarterback Alex Carder is back, and some idiotically think he is the best quarterback in the state (Kirk Cousins and Denard Robinson both spit out their morning coffee when the read that).  Carder gets back his number one target in Jordan White, and a committee of somewhat productive but largely underwhelming running backs.

Defensively, the Broncos return eight starters from an average unit that gave up 30+ points five times (including 30 points to the lowly EMU Eagles), and averaged 387 yards allowed. 

Key to the Offense:

Efficiency:  The Wolverines are likely not going to be as explosive as they were in  2010, so the team will need to focus on cutting down on turnovers, converting third downs, and scoring in the redzone. Denard Robinson is still a threat to score every time he runs, but he won't be called on as much in the run game.  To make up for this, his completion percentage will have to improve to offset the loss in rush yards.

Key to the Defense:

Stop the big play:  This is exactly what Michigan didn't do last year, and it showed.  The Wolverines return a ton of players in the back four, but dealing with a passing offense will be no picnic.  Long touchdown passes could swing momentum and put the Wolverines in a vulnerable position.

Player(s) to Watch:

QB Denard Robinson:  Like I need to tell you this, but watch for three things:  First, does he look comfortable in the pocket?  Second, is his decision making solid to the point where he doesn't force throws and he scrambles when the lanes are open?  Third, does the new offense limit his big play ability on the ground?  None of these will be answered outright against the Broncos, but there will be hints.

Prediction: Michigan 38, WMU 21 

Nebraska vs. Chattanooga

Saturday, 3:30PM, ABC/ESPN:  Lincoln, NE

The Opponent: University of Tennessee Chattanooga Mocs* (FCS)

Oh look, another middling FCS team to preview.  UT Chattanooga was 6-5 last year, bad on defense, but very good passing the ball, averaging 277 yards per game.  However, scoring defense and passing efficiency defense were both in the bottom quarter of FCS, which makes the whole thing a wash.

This preview in one word:  Bodybag.

Key to the Offense:

Shut up the doubters:  After a horrible finish to 2010 the one thing Nebraska needs now more than anything is a positive offensive start.  I say, run up 70 points on the Mocs*. 

Key to the Defense:

Domination:  For a defense this good, anything less than four straight quarters of three-and-outs is a disappointment.

Player(s) To Watch:

CB Alfonzo Dennard:  He won't get too much time (half the game, maybe) but if you don't see Dennard around a receiver that has caught the ball, it'll mean he is doing his job.  This pass offense is good enough to test him, but it probably won't. 

Prediction: Nebraska 63, UT Chattanooga 10

*(Seriously?  Seriously.) 

Illinois vs. Arkansas State

Saturday, 3:30PM, BTN: Champaign, Il

The Opponent:  Arkansas State University Red Wolves (Sun Belt)

The Red Wolves weren't very good last year.  With a record of just 4-8, the biggest problem lay on the defensive side of the ball.  The Red Wolves were in the bottom 20 in rushing, passing efficiency, and total defense while allowing 30 points per game.

This year the team returns seven starters on both offense and defense. 

Key to the Offense:

Throw the ball efficiently:  This is the first chance Nathan Scheelhaase is going to have to show how much better he has become as a passer this offseason.  The Illini shouldn't need to throw much, but when it happens there shouldn't be any mistakes. 

Key to the Defense:

Shut down the passing game:  Illinois returns the most talent in the defensive backfield, and should have no trouble shutting down the Arkansas State passing offense.  If there is trouble, there could be problems ahead. 

Player(s) To Watch:

RB Jason Ford:  After spending 2010 as a change-of-pace back, Ford is looking to shoulder the most rushing responsibilities of anyone on the team.  He should be up to it, and look for him to have a big game against a bad defense.

Prediction: Illinois 48, Arkansas State 14 

Indiana vs. Ball State

Saturday, 7:00PM:  Bloomington, IN

The Opponent:  Ball State University Cardinals (MAC)

Ball State is another in a long line of bad MAC conference teams that get sent to the firing squad every year against the Big Ten.  However, this year Ball State might be able to fire back.

Ball State has five offensive and six defensive starters back, and while the Cardinals aren't much offensively, Indiana isn't much on defense.  

Key to the Offense:

Go big:  Indiana brought Kevin Wilson in for a reason—he is an offensive genius.  Indiana has some nice skill position players in place, and they could be a dangerous team that nobody wants to face in a trap-game scenario this year.  It all depends on how dangerous the offense is.  Ball State is a winnable game, now Indiana just has to go out and do it. 

Key to the Defense:

Stop the run:  The best thing Ball State did in 2010 was run the ball, and even that was at an average clip.  Indiana is worlds behind as a defensive team, but developing pride in rushing defense is an important first step.  It won't always be easy, but that has been the story of Indiana football for longer than anyone can remember.

Player(s) To Watch:

Whoever gets the nod at QB:  Kevin Wilson needs someone who can distribute the ball without giving it away.  Look for him to try a bunch of different things to find that player this week. 

Prediction: Indiana 28, Ball State  21