2011 NFL Preseason Schedule: Week 4 Against-the-Spread Picks

Week 4 of the 2011 NFL preseason has 15 games scheduled Thursday, and a Friday night contest between the Oakland Raiders and Seattle Seahawks that brings things to a close.

The regular season kicks off on Thursday, Sept. 8, when the New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers square off in front of a nationally-televised audience on NBC.

Sports bettors will have one final look at all 32 teams before each begin a quest of trying to reach Super Bowl XLVI on Feb. 5, 2012, at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN. 

Many professionals will not even bother handicapping the final round of seemingly meaningless games, as many starters will not even step on the field. 

So many unknown variables make it unappealing, and many focus solely on wagering on the first week of collegiate action.

Let’s take a look at the final week of exhibition play from a betting perspective.

Detroit Lions (-1) at Buffalo Bills: Total 39

Detroit is one of three teams to enter the final week with a 3-0 against-the-spread record, and the magical ride will likely end in defeat Thursday night. 

The Lions are planning to limit quarterback Matthew Stafford and other key starters to a brief period of action. It’s a smart move considering how sharp the former No. 1 pick has been under center—completing 24-of-31 passes for 356 yards and five touchdowns with not a single interception.

Bettors will also blindly bet the darlings of the league due to their dominating 34-10 win over the New England Patriots as 3.5-point home underdogs.

Buffalo comes in riding a wave of momentum as well, picking up a 35-32 come-from-behind victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars at Ralph Wilson Stadium. It also served as the team’s first ATS win.

Interestingly enough, these two teams met in last year’s preseason finale, which ended in the Bills being handed a 28-23 road loss at Ford Field as 4.5-point underdogs. 

The Lions are 3-0 ATS when playing against AFC East opponents during the preseason, while the Bills are 1-4 ATS versus NFC North competition.

Recommendation:  Pass

Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-4): Total 35.5

Indianapolis scored eight more points than it produced in the opening two weeks of action, but still failed to pick up a win, dropping a 24-21 contest to the Green Bay Packers as nine-point underdogs.

Quarterback Curtis Painter continues to see a majority of the snaps due to regular starter Peyton Manning’s slower-than-expected recovery from neck surgery. He connected on 11-of-21 passes for 171 yards and two touchdowns.

The Colts will be hard-pressed to pick up a win in its final tuneup for the regular season due to trailing the Bengals in the all-time series, 13-6, in preseason play.

Cincinnati’s offense finally got going after suffering back-to-back road losses to the New York Jets (27-7) and Detroit Lions (34-3), coming away with a 24-13 win over the Carolina Panthers as three-point home favorites.

The Bengals were extremely balanced offensively in the first half, picking up 139 rushing and 130 yards passing. 

Bettors will likely back the Bengals due to their 2-0 ATS mark as home favorites of 3.5 to seven points, while the Colts are 0-3 ATS as an underdog of the same range.

Recommendation:  Cincinnati Bengals (-4)

Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers (-3): Total 38

Kansas City is a well-documented 0-11-1 ATS during preseason play under head coach Todd Haley.

Next.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at New York Jets: Total 36

Philadelphia Eagles starting quarterback Michael Vick signed a six-year contract earlier this week and will likely watch backup Vince Young lead the team in the preseason finale.

The former Tennessee Titans quarterback is definitely a viable option due to this 30-17 record as a starter in the NFL. He has played well in limited action over the last three weeks, hitting on 17-of-25 passes for 137 yards and an interception.

New York will likely be playing this game solely to evaluate players after having just two days off and a single practice to prepare after picking up a 17-3 win over the New York Giants in a delayed affair due to Hurricane Irene.

The Jets have likely found a gem at backup quarterback in seventh-round draft pick Greg McIlroy, who leads all NFL rookies with 306 passing yards in three preseason games.

Don’t be surprised if head coach Rex Ryan pulls a cat out of the bag for his team, as the Jets are 4-0 ATS in the preseason’s final week.

Recommendation:  New York Jets (+3.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins (-7): Total 36

Tampa Bay is virtually done with the preseason after coming away with a 17-13 home win over the Miami Dolphins as three-point favorites in Week 3.

Buccaneers head coach Raheem Morris will send out no defensive starters for the final exhibition contest, which could eliminate any chance of defeating a team that is still undecided on its starting quarterback.

Washington enters the final regular-season tuneup with John Beck and Rex Grossman battling it out for the honors of being under center when hosting the New York Giants on Sept. 11.

The Redskins are among three teams to be a perfect 3-0 ATS (Lions, Texans) and there’s little reason for that mark not to improve.

When things look to easy—that’s when I run away.

Recommendation:  Pass

Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons (-3): Total 38

Baltimore will likely go through the motions Thursday night in its preseason finale, following back-to-back home wins over the Washington Redskins (34-31) and Kansas City Chiefs (31-13).

The Ravens put forth a listless effort in its exhibition opener versus the Eagles, dropping a 13-6 contest and failing to cover the spread as a three-point underdog.

Atlanta seems to be a trendy pick to win the Super Bowl after dropping out of the 2010 NFL playoffs early as the No. 1 seed out of the NFC. The Falcons didn’t get the memo and have dropped all three preseason games.

Both teams have something in common, as both of their current head coaches were hired in 2008.  Atlanta’s Mike Smith has compiled a 33-15 regular-season record, while John Harbaugh sits at 32-16 after his first three years in Baltimore.

The most important matchup in this contest may be the Falcons defensive line—entering with seven sacks in the preseason—going against a Ravens offensive line that allowed 12.

The Falcons' 9-0 ATS mark as a preseason favorite after a double-digit spread loss is a winning angle, especially with the Ravens being a veteran-laden team.

Recommendation:  Atlanta Falcons (-3)

St. Louis Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3): Total 37.5

St. Louis has enjoyed a successful 3-0 preseason thus far, but professional handicappers are quick to point out that the competition hasn’t been of the highest quality. 

Two of the three victories have come against teams that have shown little interest in competing before the regular season, as both the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas Chiefs are winless heading into the final week of exhibition.

Jacksonville has some interesting storylines that will captivate the crowd at EverBank Field, as two regular starters will see their first round of action in 2011. Defensive end Aaron Kampman and running back Maurice Jones-Drew are both expected to play 10-15 plays.

Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio supplies the final angle for a potential straight-up and against-the-spread victory, covering the number in five straight preseason finales.

Recommendation: Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)

Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins (-3.5): Total 36.5

Dallas has enjoyed a fairly solid preseason in winning two of three games, with the only misstep coming against the San Diego Chargers as one-point home favorites.

The Cowboys will be missing quite a few players who will not be making the trip to South Beach—including running back Tashard Choice and wide receiver Miles Austin.

Miami was unable to keep its perfect preseason record in dropping a 17-13 road game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week as three-point underdogs. The Dolphins were out-gained by 119 yards in the contest.

Dolphins quarterback Chad Henne seems to have taken to a new offense now that running backs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are elsewhere—connecting on 29-of-46 passes for 446 yards.

Both teams offer very little in terms of handicapping angles for the preseason finale and has me sitting on the sidelines.

Recommendation: Pass

New York Giants at New England Patriots (-7.5): Total 40

Only one real question is relevant in breaking down this game: Will New England’s Tom Brady play long enough to show New York’s Eli Manning that he’s not in the same class in terms of NFL quarterbacks?

It was a discussion to be had in the streets of New York after Manning nearly stated the fact in a much-publicized radio interview.

One thing is for certain—Brady hasn’t forgotten which opposing quarterback stopped him from winning his fourth Super Bowl ring.

The lines-maker has definitely inflated the number due to the Giants having just two days off since Monday’s 17-3 home loss to the New York Jets.

Recommendation: Pass

Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-3): Total 35

Pittsburgh answered the call of head coach Mike Tomlin after an animated post-game news conference directly after the team’s 16-7 loss to the Washington Redskins as 2.5-point underdogs.

Looking at the surface, the score wasn’t that lopsided for a veteran team playing its first preseason game, but the Steelers were out-gained by 266 yards.

Impressive home wins over the Atlanta Falcons (34-16) and Philadelphia Eagles (24-14) has everyone ready for another Super Bowl run in the Steel City.

Carolina is in full-fledged rebuilding mode and that will likely open things up for the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft to start under center. 

Panthers quarterback Cam Newton seems to be doing just enough to earn the job and first-year head coach Ron Rivera will likely give him the keys to the car.

The Steelers bring in a 3-0 ATS mark against NFC South opponents during preseason action, while the Panthers are 2-9 ATS in exhibition play.

Recommendation:  Pittsburgh Steelers (+3)

Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5): Total 37.5

Houston is one of the three teams with a perfect 3-0 ATS mark during the 2011 preseason, but trouble lies ahead in Week 4.

The Texans are 1-7 ATS in Week 4 of exhibition play.

Minnesota ends its first preseason under head coach Leslie Frazier and something tells me that a 2-2 record heading into the regular season has been preached upon in practice.

The Vikings' 2-0 ATS mark as home favorites of 3.5 to seven points seals it.

Recommendation: Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)

Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears (PK): Total 37

Both teams have followed the exact same path to a 1-2 preseason record, winning the preseason opener before dropping the following two games.

Word out of the Windy City is head coach Lovie Smith is pleased with the development of his offensive line. 

Chicago’s record is a bit deceiving due to out-gaining all three of its opponents heading into this contest.

Cleveland quarterback Colt McCoy received a reality check in last week’s 24-14 road loss to the Philadelphia Eagles as seven-point underdogs. The first-team offense failed to produce any points in six first-half drives.

The Browns are given a slight edge due to potential enthusiasm of having a first-year head coach, while the Bears are 0-2 ATS following two or more consecutive losses in the preseason.

Recommendation:  Cleveland Browns PK

Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints (-3): Total 37.5

Tennessee paces the NFL in scoring defense during the preseason in allowing 11.0 points a game and will likely keep that distinction if New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees elects to stay off the field.

The Saints are coming off a dominating 40-20 road win over the Oakland Raiders and Brees connected on 15-of-23 passes for 189 yards.

From a handicapping standpoint, the Titans may call a significant amount of running plays due to the likelihood of not having star Chris Johnson in the backfield during the regular season.

The total also looks extremely enticing for casual bettors to play the over.  I’m going the other way and so should you.

Recommendation: Under 37.5

Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals (-3): Total 38

Denver has a powerful betting trend in play that can’t be ignored due to former quarterback John Elway being in the front office. 

The Broncos are 10-1 ATS in Week 4 of the preseason.

Arizona also fits into one of my favorite situational angles to play against in sports handicapper—being made a betting favorite after playing as an underdog in two or more consecutive games.

The Cardinals are favored for the first time this preseason and are 0-2 ATS after two or more consecutive losses before the regular season.

Fire away.

Recommendation: Denver Broncos (+3)

San Francisco 49ers at San Diego Chargers (-3): Total 38

San Francisco head coach Jim Harbaugh may already be planning to get in the running of drafting his former quarterback at Stanford, Andrew Luck, as the offense has managed to score just 27 points in the first three preseason games.

San Diego is ready for the regular season to start after bouncing back from a 24-17 loss in the preseason opener, picking up back-to-back road wins over the Arizona Cardinals (34-31) and Dallas Cowboys (20-7). 

Too many unknown variables on each side.

Recommendation: Pass

Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks (-3): Total 38

The Pete Carroll mantra of "Always Compete" during his time at USC comes to mind when handicapping this game.

Seattle meets Oakland for the second consecutive year to end the season and came away with a push as three-point road underdogs in a 27-24 loss in 2010.

Unfortunately, the Raiders’ "Commitment to Excellence" will be tested after opening with three preseason losses in head coach Hue Jackson’s first year on the sidelines.

The Seahawks' 6-0 ATS mark during preseason action against AFC West opponents makes it an even easier choice.

Recommendation: Seattle Seahawks (-3)