Nebraska Football: Game-by-Game Prediction of Cornhuskers' 2011 Record

We’ve waited as long as we can, so now the time is right for Nebraska’s official game-by-game prediction for the 2011 season. As unveiled last year, I have a system designed to make predicting Nebraska’s record a little more objective than guessing at the outcome of each game months in advance. Instead, I break the games down into four categories:

- BETTER WIN: Nebraska can be expected to win all of these games

- SHOULD WIN: Nebraska can be expected to win the majority of these games

- MIGHT WIN: Nebraska can be expected to win the minority of these games

- WON’T WIN: Nebraska can’t be expected to win any of these games

It’s much easier to group the schedule into these categories, then add up what the record would be based on the categories. So, now that we know the rules, let’s take a look at Nebraska’s 2011 schedule and see where we end up.

(By the way, I will put a Fearless Forecast of the game’s outcome at the end of each game. The Fearless Forecast record is not official—unless I really nail something, in which case I will be taking full credit.)

Tennessee-Chattanooga (Sept. 3)

Not only are the Mocs an FCS opponent, they’re not a particularly good one. Chattanooga went 6-5 last year and suffered blowout losses to Wofford and Elon. A mobile quarterback gives them some danger, but Nebraska should be athletically superior enough to make this a non-competitive affair by the second half.

BETTER WIN

Fearless Forecast – Nebraska 48, Chattanooga 10

Fresno State (Sept. 10)

The Bulldogs come into Lincoln with their fearless “any one, any time, any where” motto and a Carr at quarterback. But it’s running back Robbie Rouse that is Fresno’s most serious threat. While the Bulldogs are a step up in class from Chattanooga, Nebraska should still have far too much to be seriously threatened.

BETTER WIN

Fearless Forecast – Nebraska 35, Fresno State 13

Washington (Sept. 17)

The rubber match between the Huskers and the Huskies, with the two teams splitting their 2010 matchups. Washington will be coming to Lincoln with a dangerous running back in Chris Polk, but without first-round NFL selection Jake Locker at quarterback. And Nebraska will be coming in with a point to prove from their humiliation in last year’s Holiday Bowl.

BETTER WIN

Fearless Forecast – Nebraska 40, Washington 17

At Wyoming (Sept. 24)

Nebraska’s first road trip of the season sees them heading to Laramie for a high-altitude matchup with Wyoming. But Nebraska played better on the road than at home, for the most part, in 2010, and War Memorial Stadium should have more red than brown in the stands. Again, superior talent should allow Nebraska to pull away.

BETTER WIN

Fearless Forecast – Nebraska 30, Wyoming 10

At Wisconsin (Oct. 1)

Welcome to the B1G, Nebraska. Here’s your first conference game, on the road, at night, at the house of the defending conference champion. And did I mention that Wisconsin has added a dual-threat quarterback in Russell Wilson to make their run-first offense even more dangerous? Don’t be surprised to see NU stub its toe in their conference opener.

MIGHT WIN

Fearless Forecast – Wisconsin 17, Nebraska 10

Ohio State (Oct. 8)

How much fun would this game have been with Jim Tressel and Terrelle Pryor coming to Lincoln? As it is, Nebraska will be the first test for Ohio State with their suspended players returning, including standout offensive talents Boom Herron and Devier Posey. Even without the suspensions, the Buckeyes are loaded with talent, but asking a rookie head coach to win in Lincoln is a tall order.

MIGHT WIN

Fearless Forecast – Nebraska 16, Ohio State 13

At Minnesota (Oct. 22)

The Gophers provide Nebraska with the closest thing to breathing room NU gets in its inaugural B1G season. Jerry Kill did remarkable in taking over Minnesota midseason, making the Gophers competitive and shepherding them to an upset win over Iowa. But with an extra week to prepare, Nebraska should have a comfortable trip to the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

BETTER WIN

Fearless Forecast – Nebraska 35, Minnesota 7

Michigan State (Oct. 29)

One of the tougher games on Nebraska’s schedule to call. The Spartans won with a lot of smoke and mirrors in 2010, lending suspicion to their ability to repeat their performance. However, senior quarterback Kirk Cousins looks like the real deal, and there is enough talent throughout the roster to give NU pause. A different result might be seen if the game weren’t in Lincoln.

SHOULD WIN

Fearless Forecast – Nebraska 28, Michigan State 24

Northwestern (Nov. 5)

Nebraska’s new Purples could be just as thorny as the cats from Manhattan were in conferences past. Should quarterback Dan Persa be healthy, he could give the Blackshirts fits. The Wildcats are upset specialists, but Nebraska’s talent advantage and home field advantage should win out in the end.

SHOULD WIN

Fearless Forecast – Nebraska 24, Northwestern 14

At Penn State (Nov. 12)

One of the toughest road trips and one of the nastiest places outside of the SEC to play a road game, Nebraska will be faced with a tall order in a trip to Happy Valley. The Lions should have a lot of their issues worked out by this point of the season, and could be primed to take Nebraska down.

MIGHT WIN

Fearless Forecast – Penn State 14, Nebraska 13

At Michigan (Nov. 19)

First to 50 wins? If both stay healthy, the matchup between Taylor Martinez and Denard Robinson could be one of the most exciting head-to-head battles of mobile quarterbacks this season. Of course, that’s a pretty big if. Another big if is whether new head Wolverine Brady Hoke can change Michigan’s culture from Rich Rodriguez’s spread offense and optional defense in a hurry. Tough ask in year one.

SHOULD WIN

Fearless Forecast – Nebraska 38, Michigan 31

Iowa (Nov. 25)

Ah, the Heroes Game. Fans on either side of the Missouri might be trembling as to what monstrosity of a trophy will be unveiled for the game, but the first installment of the day-after-Thanksgiving matchup should be the start of what could be a real, authentic rivalry for Nebraska. Iowa has every chance to come into the Heroes Game with a gaudy record based in part on a favorable schedule. But Nebraska’s home-field advantage should be enough for NU to claim the first trophy of the rivalry—whatever it may turn out to look like.

SHOULD WIN

Fearless Forecast – Nebraska 28, Iowa 17

Summary

Better Win: 5 (5 wins)

Should Win: 4 (3 wins)

Might Win: 3 (1 win)

Won’t Win: 0 (0 wins)

Forecasted overall Nebraska record: 9-3

Fearless Forecast summary (the one that doesn’t count, unless it's right): 10-2

A 9-3 record should be enough to get Nebraska to the B1G Conference title game, unless their loss in division comes to Michigan State. Should they get there, the projection would have them facing Wisconsin in a rematch of Nebraska's inaugural B1G matchup. In that case, look for Nebraska to get a little revenge and finally put another conference championship trophy in the cabinet underneath Memorial Stadium.

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