Big 12 Football: What Is the Real Impact of Texas A&M Leaving?

Well, it seems like for the Aggies it will be far more than “goodbye to Texas University” but it’s also adieu to the Big 12 conference and farewell to the ties bound by a long association with foes from the Southwest Conference that dates back to 1915.

The Dallas Morning News is reporting that the announcement may come as soon as today…Texas A&M gone to what looks like the SEC…the geographically neighboring conference that Arkansas joined back in 1992 foretelling the eventual demise of the old Southwest Conference.

As a Big 12 enthusiast who has no Austin ties it is easy to see why A&M wants out (and wants out badly) but it’s also fairly simple to surmise that their exit might present a short term, short-sided solution to a long term problem.

How does a program that hasn’t been relevant in a football sense (other than a brilliant six game winning streak in 2010) in a decade feel that a move to the most dominant conference in college football benefits them?

Yes, you want to prove that you aren’t under anyone’s thumb (and believe me, I get that) but does trading a perceived benevolent subservience to the University of Texas for certain obscurity (at least short term) in the SEC really a solution to your problem?

The flip side of this coin is how does the departure of Texas A&M truly impact the Big 12 from a football standpoint?

Sure, it’s one less major university with inarguably a great football tradition, tremendous facilities, geographic rivalries and money but how does it actually impact the actual football climate, the levels of competition and the eventual champion?

Even if the Aggies recent rise into the preseason Top 10 is for real (which it may well be) if you look backwards you realize that perhaps the impact of the move is not as devastating as we might be led to believe.

The following slideshow takes us back over the last decade of Big 12 football and plays “what if the Aggies weren’t there” ultimately attempting to gauge the severity of the blow if they indeed leave for richer (and more competitive) pastures and the presentation wraps up with a final slide tallying the results.

Admittedly, I for one would bemoan the Aggies leaving the ever shrinking Big 12 and though I would understand their motivation for going I would be slow to forgive such an audacious move.

2001

Texas A&M’s Overall Record:  8-4

Texas A&M’s Big 12 Record:  4-4

Bowl Results:  28-9 win over TCU in the Galleryfurniture.com Bowl

Final AP Ranking: Not Ranked

Texas wins the Big 12 South with a one conference win advantage over Oklahoma.  The Aggies lose to both the Longhorns (7-21) and the Sooners (10-31) and therefore don’t impact the divisional or overall conference championship picture.

A&M’s win over TCU in the Galleryfurniture.com Bowl brought the Big 12’s 2001 overall bowl record to 3-5.

2002

Texas A&M’s Overall Record:  6-6

Texas A&M’s Big 12 Record:  3-5

Bowl Results:  No Bowl

Final AP Ranking: Not Ranked

 Texas A&M finishes fifth in the Big 12 South standings and though they beat eventual divisional champion Oklahoma (30-26) the Sooners still make the Big 12 Championship game by virtue of beating Texas (who they were tied with at the end of the regular season) straight up in October.

The Aggies lost to the Longhorns, Red Raiders and Cowboys meaning they ultimately had no real impact on the outcome of the divisional race.

2003

Texas A&M’s Overall Record:  4-8

Texas A&M’s Big 12 Record:  2-6

Bowl Results:  No Bowl

Final AP Ranking: Not Ranked

The Aggies finish No. 5 in the Big 12 South and lose to divisional champ Oklahoma (0-77) who goes undefeated; they also succumb to Texas (15-46) who went 7-1 in conference play and also suffered a loss to the Sooners.

Texas A&M also loses to Oklahoma State (10-38) and Texas Tech (28-59) who finish above them in the division; they therefore have no real effect on the divisional title race.

2004

Texas A&M’s Overall Record:  8-4

Texas A&M’s Big 12 Record:  5-3

Bowl Results:  7-38 loss to Tennessee in the Cotton Bowl  

Final AP Ranking: Not Ranked

The Aggies improve to a No. 4 finish in the Big 12 South but lose to divisional champ Oklahoma (35-42) who are perfect in conference play and second place finisher Texas (13-26) whose only loss (again) is to Oklahoma.

Though A&M beats Texas Tech (32-25) and ties the Red Raiders with a 5-3 finish in the conference (but finishes a game back overall) this victory does not impact who wins the division.

The Aggies loss to the Volunteers in the Cotton Bowl brought the Big 12’s 2004-05 bowl record to 4-3.

2005

Texas A&M’s Overall Record:  5-6

Texas A&M’s Big 12 Record:  3-5

Bowl Results:  No Bowl

Final AP Ranking: Not Ranked

Texas A&M finishes fourth in the Big 12 South standings and loses to undefeated Texas (29-40) who wins the division and the conference (and the national championship), second place finisher Texas Tech (17-56) and Oklahoma (30-36) who captures third place in the division.

The Aggies play does not affect the divisional or conference championship discussions.

2006

Texas A&M’s Overall Record:  9-4

Texas A&M’s Big 12 Record:  5-3

Bowl Results:  10-45 loss to California in the Holiday Bowl

Final AP Ranking: Not Ranked

The Aggies rebound to take the No. 3 spot in the division and though they narrowly fall to the eventual South champion Sooners (16-17) they hand the Longhorns their second conference loss (12-7) knocking Texas out of contention for the division title.

Texas finally beat Oklahoma in 2006 but suffered their other Big 12 loss to Kansas State.

The net result is that the Aggies win over Texas did indeed impact and alter the outcome of the divisional and conference championship.

Texas A&M’s loss to Cal in the Holiday Bowl brought the Big 12’s 2006-07 bowl record to 3-5.

2007

Texas A&M’s Overall Record:  7-6

Texas A&M’s Big 12 Record:  4-5

Bowl Results:  17-24 loss to Penn State in the Alamo Bowl

Final AP Ranking: Not Ranked

Texas A&M tied with Oklahoma State for the No. 4 slot in the Big 12 South and though they beat Texas again (38-30) they lost to eventual divisional champ Oklahoma (14-42) who would have held the tiebreaker over the Longhorns anyway by virtue of beating them head-to-head.

This means that even if Texas had beaten the Aggies they still would have finished second in the division meaning the though the win was indeed a win it didn’t impact the final conference championship picture.

The Aggies loss to the Nittany Lions in the Alamo Bowl marked one of only two Big 12 losses in the 2007-08 bowl season (the other was Oklahoma’s 20-point loss to West Virginia in the Fiesta Bowl).

2008

Texas A&M’s Overall Record:  4-8

Texas A&M’s Big 12 Record:  2-6

Bowl Results:  No Bowl

Final AP Ranking: Not Ranked

The Aggies finished the 2008 season tied with Baylor for last place in the Big 12 South, they lost to every other team in the division (their two conference wins were over Iowa State and Colorado from the North) and therefore did not impact the conference race.

2009

Texas A&M’s Overall Record:  6-7

Texas A&M’s Big 12 Record:  3-5

Bowl Results:  20-44 loss to Georgia in the Independence Bowl

Final AP Ranking: Not Ranked

The Aggies finished the season at .500 but after the bowl loss sunk down to a No. 4 finish in the South.  Texas A&M lost to both first place finisher, undefeated Texas (39-49) and second place Oklahoma State (31-36) therefore having zero effect on the eventual conference championship picture.

The Aggies loss to Georgia in the Independence Bowl evened up the Big 12’s 2008-09 bowl record to a 4-4 mark.

2010

Texas A&M’s Overall Record:  9-4

Texas A&M’s Big 12 Record:  6-2

Bowl Results:  24-41 loss to LSU in the Cotton Bowl

Final AP Ranking: 19

Texas A&M bounced back to a third place finish in the Big 12 South and even though they beat eventual divisional champion Oklahoma (33-19) they narrowly lost to second place finisher Oklahoma State (35-38).

The Aggies win over the Sooners ultimately did not impact who went to the final Big 12 title game because Oklahoma went on to beat the Cowboys in the final regular game of the season and therefore punched their ticket to the Championship game.

A&M definitely was a player in the Big 12 in 2010 but, at the end of the day they would have needed to beat both the Sooners and Cowboys to impact the outcome of the conference race.

The Aggies loss to LSU in the Cotton Bowl brought the Big 12’s bowl record in 2010 to an ugly 3-5 mark.

A Decade of Results

At the end of the day Texas A&M has had little or no impact on the actual Big 12 football scene for at least a decade.  Following are the combined statistics since 2001.

Texas A&M’s Overall Record:  66-57 (53 percent)

Texas A&M’s Big 12 Record:  37-44 (45 percent)

Bowl Results:  1-5 (16 percent)

 AP Rankings:  One

To summarize, the Aggies have finished with a .500 or better conference record four times in the last ten years. They’ve been bowl eligible six times and haven’t won a bowl game since 2001.

They have had an actual impact on the divisional race once (or possibly twice if you count the 2010 season which is a big stretch) in the last decade and they’ve managed one final poll ranking during this same time period.

Actually, Texas A&M hasn’t finished a season in the Top 25 since 1999 when they went 8-4 and were ranked No. 23 in the AP poll.

While this is no attempt to slam the Aggies (again, I’m not on the “farewell to you” bandwagon), frankly the numbers speak for themselves; this is a football program that hasn’t been a part of the conference (or national) conversation for quite some time (again, leaving 2010 at least partially out).

So, how bad will it be if Texas A&M packs up and leaves the Longhorn laden Big 12 behind?

I’m just saying…it’s not as catastrophic as advertised.