Big Ten Football: Preseason Power Rankings

If you happen to see me in the next couple days, I will most likely be whistling a song that seems wildly inappropriate given the fact that it isn't December—or, the way things seem to be going in our consumer culture, the day after Halloween.

But you know what?  I don't care.  College football season is my Christmas.  I wake up nervously excited every Saturday morning, make some coffee and turn on the TV to zone out for twelve hours.  It's almost like Hanukkah, only instead of only eight days, I get three months (plus bowl season!).  The only thing that is missing is wrapping paper on the TV.

College football is so close that I can almost taste it.  Or maybe that is just the grilled food from tailgates and beer that I am anticipating.  Either way, its going to be a great three months.

Since we are so close to the season, let's examine the first installment of our Big Ten Power Rankings.

This isn't a prediction of how the teams are going to finish (I'm not that good), but simply a look at what teams are peaking and which teams are flat lining as we look down the opening week's games.  As we get further along in the season, this list will be heavily influenced by winning or losing streaks, injuries and games against Nebraska's defense or Wisconsin's offense.

Think I undervalued your team?  Tell me in the comments.  Think I overvalued your rival?  Tell me in the comments.  Think I'm crazy?  Tell me in the comments.  Think I'm part of the vast media conspiracy trying to hold Ohio State down?  Well, you can sit on that thought.

On with the show.

No. 12: Minnesota

The Golden Gophers start out our countdown at No. 12, and for very good reason: Tim Brewster.

I know Brewster is gone, but his legacy is not forgotten.  Minnesota has slowly fallen down the gopher hole into oblivion, and it is going to take a lot to pull them out.  Jerry Kill looks to be the man for the job in the long term, but the turnaround will not happen without significant growing pains.

Offensively, the Gophers are replacing three offensive linemen, a multiple year starter at quarterback—Gopher fans, save me the debate over whether he was a good starting quarterback—and trying to transition the team's second-leading receiver into its starting quarterback.  Odds are it will take this offense a while to gel, especially under a new head coach.

Defensively, the Gophers return eight starters, but the defense wasn't any good last year anyway.  Trying to build a solid unit in a new system with players who aren't very good will be a tough task.

On top of all of this, Minnesota opens the season with a game against USC in L.A.

So yeah, twelfth feels just right.

No. 11: Purdue

Some days you just can't catch a break.  Purdue calls those days the last two years.

After suffering through the strangest series of ACL injuries seen in college football since the Great Cajun Voodoo Hex of '59*, Purdue started this season out on the wrong foot, er, knee again when quarterback Rob Henry went down with an ACL injury.  On top of that, last year's starter and fellow ACL injury recipient, Robert Marve, is still questionable to play early in the season because of last year's injury.

Throw in a defense that ended the year giving up an average of 37 points per game in a six-game losing streak, and you have an entire team that is beat down, bruised and lacking confidence.  Oh yeah, Purdue lost to Indiana in the final game of the season.

The only hope for the 2011 season is the head coach.  Not actual hope, mind you.  His last name is Hope (first name Danny). Sorry for the confusion.

If the Boilermakers catch a wave of good luck, this team could sneak into a bowl.  Don't hold your breath. 

*(Didn't actually happen, but if it did you can be confident that Les Miles was somehow involved.  I don't care if he would have been six at the time.)

No. 10: Indiana

The future is now in Bloomington.  At least, new head coach Kevin Wilson hopes it is.

Unlike the last two teams in the power rankings, Indiana hasn't been anything approaching good in over a decade (at least Minnesota put together a few solid years under Glen Mason, and Purdue always has the Brees years).

In 2011, Indiana probably still won't be any good, but if Kevin Wilson is as good an offensive guru as advertised, they could be exciting.

The quarterback race is finally starting to settle itself—instead of four guys battling out for the starting position, now it is just two: Dusty Kiel and Edward Wright-Baker.  Last year's spread passing offense should have the skill position players ready for what Wilson is going to want to do, and Indiana brings back four starters on the offensive line.

Things are pretty bleak defensively, but at this point the defense would have to try pretty hard to be worse than last year's unit.

All in all, things are looking up in Bloomington.  Wilson has brought some excitement to the program, the offensive transition between last year's spread and this year's won't be too radical, and with the addition of a five-star quarterback in 2012 (aptly named Gunner Kiel, brother of Dusty), the Wilson hire seems to be already paying off.

Now about those pesky games to be played...

No. 9: Penn State

If you have two quarterbacks, you have none.

Wise words, and also words that could come back to bite Penn State as the Nittany Lions look to take a step back toward the top of the Big Ten after a season smack in the middle of a very mediocre group of teams.

Right now, Penn State has a few things going for it.  The defense is mostly healthy, and since this is Penn State, you can expect there is depth and talent—no matter how unharnessed as of yet—littering the roster.  A bounce back is most likely in the cards for this defense.

Offensively, there are a few more questions.  Does the offensive line do a better job opening running lanes this year?  Can Silas Redd be a feature back?  Oh yeah, and who is the quarterback?

We likely won't have answers to these questions until Sept. 10th, when Alabama visits Happy Valley for a slaught—um, er, game.  Penn State fans most likely won't like the answers they get after week two.

The Nittany Lions can't decide on a quarterback, and I can't justify putting a bad offensive team with no continuity under center any higher than ninth.

If one quarterback seizes the job, the Nittany Lions could very well be back (or close to it).  Until then, this team just seems like it is stuck in the same place offensively as it was last year.  That isn't a good thing.

No. 8: Northwestern

Northwestern gets the nod at No. 8 for one reason: Unlike Penn State, the Wildcats have a quarterback.

However, the Wildcats get knocked down to eighth for a whole bunch of reasons.

The quarterback that Northwestern has isn't yet 100 percent after last year's Achilles injury. Without a healthy Dan Persa, Northwestern will be relying on untested backup Kain Colter. That, or they could gamble and play a hampered Persa.

Now, don't get me wrong, 75 percent of Dan Persa is still pretty good, but with as much of the offensive load as he has to carry week in and week out, it might not be enough.  Also, the Persa injury only compounds the fact that this team has yet to find a consistent running game.

On top of the offensive woes, the Northwestern defense is still just the Northwestern defense.  Can a unit that couldn't stop the run take a step forward to where it needs to be, especially in a division full of teams that are going to rely on the running game to set up the pass?

Northwestern could have a dream season, but right now I'm still awake. With the questions surrounding this team, I need more answers before giving them a bump in the poll.  The game against Boston College this weekend should go a long way toward providing some evidence of just what Northwestern can do this year.

No. 7: Illinois

The Fighting Illini look to be relatively stable this year, and believe me, I'm just as surprised as you are.

Head coach Ron Zook is back, and both his coordinators look to build on the impressive turnarounds that they engineered last season.

Offensively, Nathan Scheelhaase should take a step forward as a quarterback, and if he can improve his passing it will go a long way toward opening holes for returning running back Jason Ford.  The offensive line should again be solid because of depth and returning experience.

Defensively, the Illini will need to fill the large holes left by the two men in the middle, Martez Wilson and Corey Liuget. But with most of the secondary returning and plenty of depth to work with in the front seven, the defense should at least be able to avoid a major regression.

Until proven wrong, Illinois' very good rushing offense, returning quarterback and solid defensive depth make them an ideal pick for seventh, but we probably won't get any real answers until Sept. 17th when the Arizona State Sun Devils come to visit.

No. 6: Michigan

If you were to grade Brady Hoke's first seven months on campus, you would be hard pressed not to give the man an A.

He has already compiled a very good recruiting class for 2012, hired two experienced coordinators and brought the fractured Michigan fan base back together with a healthy dose of coach-speak, Michigan arrogance and assurances that no matter what happened the last three years, things will go back to the way they were before Lloyd Carr left (you know, 10 wins and a bowl loss to a Pac-10 team).

Now, Hoke gets to take the only test that really counts: the games.

Offensively, he is going to hope that Al Borges can build an amalgamation of man-ball and zone-spread to simultaneously use Denard Robinson as the dynamic weapon he was last year, while also laying the groundwork for the offense Hoke and co. hope to run in a couple years.

The pieces left range from serviceable (running backs) to outstanding (Robinson).  The offensive line returns almost intact, as does the receiving corp.  The pieces are in place for this offense to be very good, but the transcendence of 2010 is out of reach.

The big question is how fast Greg Mattison can pump some life into the defense.  A new, and frankly coherent scheme should pay immediate dividends, and the return of the entire defensive line and secondary will mean game experience to work with.  The Wolverine defense won't set the world on fire, but average is within reach.  That is all that is needed if the offense stays productive.

For now, the vein of optimism running through the Michigan program is enough to bump them just inside the top half of the power rankings.  Just how long those good feelings last will decide how long Michigan stays here.

No. 5: Ohio State

If this were a "pure talent poll," you could expect to find the Buckeyes a lot higher than fifth.  However, this poll is grounded in reality and the present, raising significant problems for the Buckeyes.

No team in the Big Ten has done a better job of amassing talent in the past decade than the Buckeyes, and those recruiting classes should serve Ohio State well, as there are plenty of positions which require an infusion of young talent after an off-season of attrition through graduation and, in one high-profile case, exile.

Unfortunately, the degree of difficulty for this season is just a little higher. The Buckeyes lose three of their best offensive players for five games (Dan Herron, DeVier Posey and Mike Adams) as well as a defensive end Solomon Thomas.

While the Buckeyes are still perhaps the most talented team in the Big Ten, the first month of the season looks to present a number of steep challenges: Developing a run game without an all-conference starting tackle and last year's leading rusher; developing a credible passing threat without last year's leading receiver to throw to (not to mention a quarterback with no starting experience, whoever he might be); keeping the defense producing at a high enough level to offset the offensive growing pains; all the while completing all these tasks under a first year head coach.  

If the Buckeyes make it through week five unscathed, they will be first in line for a jump in the power poll. Until then, there is too much working against first-year coach Luke Fickel's team.

No. 4: Iowa

Considering the turnover from last year's roster and the scandal-plagued offseason, August has been a quiet month for Kirk Ferentz's team.  Just the way he likes it.

The Hawkeyes seem to be sitting in a good position to make a run at the first Big Ten championship game.  The defense should once again be solid under Norm Parker, and while there have been some heavy losses on the defensive line, few teams in the nation have done a better job developing talent than Iowa has in the last few years.

Offensively, Iowa is breaking in a new quarterback, James Vandenberg, but fortunate that he has made a few starts as understudy for former starter and patriotic American, Ricky Stanzi.  Vandenberg isn't the kind of player that will "wow" you, but he isn't the kind of player who makes a lot of boneheaded mistakes either.  If the running game can mature in Marcus Coker's first full year as a starter, then Iowa's offense should be set.

Most importantly, this team won't be dragged down by the weight of expectations.  The 2009 squad came out of nowhere to almost win the Big Ten title, but the 2010 team that returned a great deal of talent struggled to close out games.  This year's squad gets to once again try and play giant killer, while also missing Ohio State and Wisconsin from the Leader's division.

With a favorable schedule, the Hawkeyes look to be a dark horse pick to win double-digit games.  I doubt Kirk Ferentz would have it any other way.

No. 3: Michigan State

Last year's dream season for MSU could signal one of two things: That the Spartans are finally ready to take a step up to the same level as programs like Iowa and Wisconsin that develop Midwestern talent well enough to compete for Big Ten championships, or that the Spartans can only make a run with an advantageous schedule during a down year for some of the Big Ten elite.

If 2010 was a perfect setup, 2011 is going to be the true test.

This year's Michigan State team returns almost all of its talent at the offensive skill positions and over half of its defensive starters.  This includes golden boy quarterback Kirk Cousins, who has the talent and image to be a Heisman contender on a BCS team—Tebow-lite without the legs or jump pass. The stable of running backs is only second to Wisconsin, and the receiving corp is deep, if not a bit unproven past the top three options.

On defense, the Spartans have a potential top-10 draft pick in defensive tackle Jerel Worthy, as well as a depth chart littered with potential but short on experience.

Unfortunately, the road to Indianapolis is bumpier than last year because much of that road runs through cities outside of Michigan.  Away games include Notre Dame, Ohio State, Nebraska, Iowa and Northwestern, while the Spartans still have to deal with odds-on favorite Wisconsin at home.

Furthermore, Michigan State has to prove that it is capable of reloading after championship runs, not rebuilding.  The offensive line is a glaring weakness, and while the defense could be good, it will depend on a lot of contributions from 2010's backups.

As it stands today, the Spartans look to be poised for close to double-digit wins, but there are no guarantees.  If the Spartans want respect, this is the year to earn it. 

No. 2: Nebraska

Wherever Nebraska goes, it goes by way of its defense.  It is the Pelini way.

In 2011, that isn't a bad thing.

There is no team more complete on defense in the Big Ten than Nebraska.  The front seven should be staggeringly good, anchored by defensive tackle Jared Crick and linebacker Levonte David, while the secondary returns a possible All-American selection at cornerback in Alfonzo Dennard.

The Cornhuskers certainly got the memo that Big Ten fans appreciate defense.

The big question mark is just how good the Nebraska offense can be under first-year coordinator Tim Beck.  He certainly has some intriguing tools to work with in quarterback Taylor Martinez, running back Rex Burkhead and a solid offensive line, but the Huskers problems in 2010 stemmed from an inability to move the ball through the air—mostly because Martinez wasn't much of an accurate passer, and once injured wasn't much of a threat on the ground either.

A healthy Martinez should be able to push this offense to above average in the Big Ten.  Paired with the Blackshirt defense, that is a tough combination to beat. 

No. 1: Wisconsin

Could it be anybody else?

Last year's Rose Bowl representative returns to 2011 as the unquestioned head of the class.  Let's look at the facts:

• Wisconsin lost a thousand-yard rusher, but returns two other thousand-yard rushers with equal or better touchdown numbers and better yards per carry average.
• Wisconsin lost two all-conference offensive linemen, but has been producing all-conference or better offensive linemen at a furious pace for years.
• Wisconsin lost its best defensive player, defensive end J.J. Watt, but returns more than half of its defense while getting a number of capable underclassmen ready to step into starting roles.
• Wisconsin lost a starting quarterback, but then gained a starting quarterback when Russell Wilson decided to transfer to Madison for his final year of eligibility.

This is as close to a team without holes as you could find, and even those holes are nit-picky: The only wide receiver that returns is oft-injured Nick Toon, the defense could take a small step back from good to just above average as the younger players get acclimated, and Wisconsin has to travel to East Lansing and Columbus in back-to-back weeks in late October.

Either way, the team that ended the 2010 season on top will now begin the 2011 season as the front runner.  No other team is nearly as complete on paper.

Fortunately for all of us, they don't play the games on paper, and the 2011 season looks to be fiercely competitive and filled with suspense.  Tune in next week, when this power poll gets its first taste of football.