Florida—Alabama: 5 Reasons Why the Gators Will Win The SEC

This is another attempt for me at a response article.  I'm disputing Mike Dockery's Can Alabama Beat Florida?  Five Reasons Why Crimson Tide Could Win the SEC.

And here we go...

1.  Florida's big wins against teams that Alabama squeaked by do matter, a lot

The BCS computers, whether you agree with their results or not, are based on formulas developed by genius mathematicians. These geniuses have determined that including margin of victory in a ranking system is a better predictor of a team's future results than by simply considering the result (won or lost).

The BCS computers by rule cannot currently use margin of victory, but the formula inventors still can keep track of margin of victory for their own research. 

The computer ranking creators have decided that margin of victory is significant. It is logical to me, so I will agree with the geniuses

2.  'Bama does not match-up well when you look at common opponents

However, there are some qualifications that have to be made.

One cannot simply say that since Florida beat Tennessee by 24 and Alabama beat Tennessee by 20, Florida is a better team.

It's possible that one of those games was a fluke.

But what do we mean by fluke?  A fluke occurs when unusual circumstances have to occur in order to achieve a certain score.  Maybe there is a heavy rainstorm, or strong wind gusts, or every fumble bounces to one team.

So I'm not buying the idea that there are several flukes that have led to the margin of victory difference.

If you want to talk about flukes, talk about the Florida—Ole Miss game.  30 percent of the Gators' turnovers this year came in that game.  Also, Jonathan Phillips has attempted 67 extra points/field goals this season.  He made 66 of them.  The one that was blocked happened in the same game that the Gators had a season-high in turnovers.  Talk about a fluke.

Alabama squeaked out the Ole Miss win because they won the turnover battle three to two.  Florida lost because they lost the turnover battle three to one.  All we can conclude from those two games is that Florida made too many mistakes.

But that isn't a trend for Florida, so it must be a fluke.

Comparing Arkansas and Tennessee results is not really productive because the results were similar and those two opponents are not exactly firing on all cylinders.

What is significant is the way Florida and Alabama played Georgia and LSU.  There is no excuse for a letdown in these games.  The only reason why a team would not play up to its potential would be injuries.  Injuries also explain why Florida destroyed Kentucky 63-5.  That was not the same Kentucky team that lost to Alabama by three.

So we can learn a lot from these teams' performances against Georgia.  For example, Alabama led 31-0 at halftime.  Then they allowed Georgia to score 30 points in the last 30 minutes.  Florida led 35-3 with over 18 minutes left.  Georgia only managed 7 more points when both teams were using backups.

Florida played better defense when looking at the entire game.  Both teams built a lead, but Alabama was unable to maintain their performance while Florida kept Georgia's starters out of the endzone the entire game.

In the LSU match-ups, Florida rushed for 265 yards while allowing 80.  Alabama rushed for 138 yards while allowing 201.  Which leads me to my next point...

3.  Alabama does not have an edge in the running game

I would have made this point before Florida piled up 346 yards rushing against South Carolina, but it is nice to have that kind of proof. 

Disregarding rushing yards per game, which is a category that Florida now leads anyway, Florida has a better running game right now.  They now have Emmanuel Moody back from an injury he sustained in the Ole Miss game.  In the Arkansas game, Urban Meyer discovered how good Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey are. 

If Florida plays the SEC Championship with Moody, Demps, Rainey, and Percy Harvin healthy,  I give the Gators an advantage in the running game.  Don't forget that Tebow is a good runner too.

Sure, Alabama allows 75.1 rushing yds a game, but holding Clemson to zero and Western Kentucky to 42 does not prove they can hold Florida under 200.

I can now hear Alabama fans screaming: Alabama only allowed Georgia to run for 50 yards!

Hm, maybe that's because when Georgia got down 31-0 at halftime, they decided they didn't have time to run the clock out in the second half.  Quick scores from the passing game were their only chance.  Georgia was forced to throw.

4.  Alabama is a first half team; Florida ends games in the third quarter

Alabama has consistently played better in the first half than the second half.  In the first half they have outscored opponents 224-47.  In the second half the margin is only 119 to 91.

Florida, meanwhile, has outscored opponents 227-26 in the first half and 214-87 in the second half.

This cannot be explained by saying that Alabama just protected their lead in the second half.  Alabama has been up by at least 24 at halftime three times this year, while Florida has led by that much four times. 

If anything, Alabama has been involved in more competitive second halves.  Alabama has led by 14 or less at the half six times, while Florida has only allowed opponents to stay that close five times.

Clearly, it is Florida that has had less at stake in the second half overall, and yet they are the ones playing like the game is still in question.

The Gators' scoring margin in the second half is actually a little misleading.  They've allowed 39 points during the fourth quarter of blowout victories.  Only 14 of Alabama's points allowed have come in similar "garbage time."

So if we could only count the competitive portion of the games, Florida would have an even greater edge in scoring margin.

5.  Florida has the best special teams in the nation and is better at turnover margin

The Gators use Jeff Demps, Chris Rainey, and Carlos Dunlap to block punts.  Who else uses key offensive and defensive players on special teams?  Heck, who else has a head coach who doubles as the special teams coach? 

If they don't block the punt, then Brandon James is waiting to return it.  He averages 17.1 yards a punt return and has two punt return TDs.  He also averages 26 yards a kickoff return.

Chas Henry has punted 33 times.  17 of those have been downed inside the 20 yard line.

Even more impressive is that the Gators have blocked seven kicks this season.

Then there is the other key factor that gives the Gators excellent field position: turnovers.

Florida has forced 25 turnovers this year while only having ten themselves.  Alabama doesn't protect the ball as well.  They have 15 turnovers while forcing opponents into 21.  This reinforces the idea that the mistake-plagued Ole Miss game was a fluke.

So please, do not bother trying to convince me that Alabama's offense is going to overcome bad field position to score a large number of points against Florida's defense. 

And do not bother trying to convince me that Alabama can stop Florida's running game. (keep in mind that Florida's passing game is better than Alabama's).

There is absolutely no way Florida loses to Alabama...

...unless there's a fluke.