Florida State Football: 10 Bold Predictions for the 2011 Season

There is an uncanny buzz going around Tallahassee that has continued to build over the past six months or so; a feeling that this town has not felt running through its veins for nearly a decade. The Florida State Seminoles, fresh off their first double-digit winning season since 2003, have garnered a lot of hype this offseason.

Parts of the hype are justified; the other parts not so much. Jimbo Fisher far exceeded most of the Seminole nation’s expectations by leading his boys to a 10-4 record in his inaugural season as the head coach.

After all, he only had to replace some guy named Bobby Bowden who built the program with his bare hands over a 34-year span.

No pressure.

As I drove into Tallahassee, I could feel that this place thirsts for football. You could practically taste the eagerness within the student body walking around campus.

There’s something about coming to the Florida State campus at the start of the fall semester in Tallahassee. It is a feeling of revitalization: Students ready to improve upon the previous semester, professors grudgingly going back to their offices, the Seminoles' marching band fine tuning their musical pieces, and the whistles and shouts traveling over the campus green spaces from the football practice fields as the team implements their final changes before the season kicks off.

Tallahassee is ready to explode in the hope that this year is the year their beloved Seminoles return to glory and national prominence. Here’s a list of 10 bold predictions for the 2011 Florida State football season.

1. Florida State Will Beat Oklahoma by Double Digits

This will be my fourth football season living in Tallahassee and my 12th season attending various FSU games. I did not grow up rooting for the Noles; I grew up quite the opposite actually.

I grew up working at every Florida State versus Miami game and Florida State versus Florida game since 1999. I rooted economically, which usually meant Miami.

But I observed some incredible teams throughout those years in person. I witnessed the Seminoles of the late 1990s and early 2000s, the Miami Hurricanes of the early 2000s and the Tim Tebow years during the Florida Gators' run late in the decade.

The last time I can remember a Seminoles team that had this much buzz surrounding it was probably before the 2005 season when Virginia Tech and Miami first entered the ACC. Most of that hype was due to that very reason: the new boys joining the ACC.

Oklahoma has been ranked in every preseason poll as the No. 1 team in the nation. Florida State comes in at No. 5 or No. 6 depending on who you look at. After the season opener between the LSU Tigers and Oregon Ducks, Florida State should slide up a spot or two before the prime time matchup in Tallahassee.

Everyone rehashes the beat down the Sooners handed the Seminoles last season. I say forget that game.

It means absolutely nothing.

E.J. Manuel did not start. Nor did the then-young defense know their new scheme going into the Week 2 matchup.

This Seminoles defense will be a completely different animal under the lights at Doak Campbell Stadium, with their ravenous home crowd behind them. Trust me, the hype behind this game has been building in classrooms, lecture halls and bars throughout Tallahassee since New Year's Day.

Oklahoma will be taken back in time on September 17th. Game day will be in the house and the Seminoles faithful have all day to tailgate as they ready their outside voices for the Sooners.

Tallahassee will be partying like it’s 1999 when they route the Oklahoma Sooners by double digits.

2. Greg Reid Will Return a Kickoff, Punt and Interception for a TD

In college football there are certain guys you simply do not throw towards, punt to or kick off to unless you want to be punished. Greg Reid is definitely one of those guys.

During his freshman season the dangerous defensive back won the award for 2009’s Most Dangerous Punt Returner. He did not disappoint in 2010 either. Averaging 23.94 on kick returns, 9.81 on punt returns with one touchdown and three interceptions.

In case you missed the Florida State Seminoles bowl game versus the South Carolina Gamecocks, the small defensive back flat out balled during the Chick-fil-A Bowl. He had four pass deflections, five tackles, an 18-yard kickoff return and two punt returns for a total of 53 yards against the Gamecocks.

Reid was simply everywhere and seemed to be involved in every big play.

His partnership with Xavier Rhodes could very easily be the best cornerback tandem in the nation. Add in a defensive line that created the most sacks in the country during the 2010 season and Reid should have plenty of opportunities to feed on inerrant throws from quarterbacks throughout the 2011 season.

Reid’s showboat attitude reminds me of another versatile athlete that donned the spears on his helmets during his collegiate days at cornerback. Obviously, Reid is far from “Prime time’s” level of play, but this guy is no chump.

The cornerback's swagger has rubbed off on Florida State's defensive attitude as a unit. If Greg Reid gets the ball in his hands this season, expect him to have one thing on his mind and one thing only: to score.

3. Florida State Will Have a Top 5 Defense in the Nation

My previous two slides hinted at this a bit, but do not be mistaken, this team has talent. One luxury that Florida State has that every other school in the SEC does not have is that they play their football games in the ACC despite their geographic location.

Hold off on the “You don’t say!” snarl comments for one moment.

Florida State is a public institution, unlike Miami, in the state of Florida, which enables them to attract all sorts of recruits. Tallahassee sits a stone’s throw away from the Georgia border and a short drive from other southeastern football recruiting hotbeds.

I have vehemently protested the idea of Florida State joining the SEC for this very reason despite the monetary implications of such a move. You can recruit all the same talent that Florida, Alabama and LSU does, but instead you play in a conference that does not present a murderers row of opponents year after year.

This defense has the size, athleticism and, most importantly, the ferocity that the great SEC defenses contain. When I say these boys are big, I mean to say they are enormous, which is something that has been missing in these parts for a good portion of a decade. Forget checking boosters, someone needs to look into what gets put in the fertilizer throughout the South.

A second year within Mark Stoops’ defensive system should allow the returning players from a season ago to go out and play ball without over-thinking. Early in the year last season, as witnessed versus the Oklahoma Sooners, the defense struggled to digest the new defense giving up some scores due to mental lapses.

Throughout the year you could see the defense settle into their new system. In nine of their 14 games, the defense held their opponents under 17 points.

Their performances against two SEC teams in the Florida Gators and South Carolina Gamecocks provided a glimpse of what kind of defense this unit could be in 2011. The South Carolina game provided all kinds of momentum and ammunition for the Seminoles defense going into the spring, recording three interceptions, two fumble recoveries and one vicious knockout blow to the Gamecocks’ Marcus Lattimore. 

4. The Defensive Line Will Repeat Their Country’s Best Performance from 2010

Florida State’s defensive line dominated their opposition in 2010, recording a nation’s best 48 sacks. The Seminole defensive line looks to improve upon that number in 2011.

The Seminoles have had their fair share of disruptive pass rushers come through the ranks over the years. From Peter Boulware to Corey Simon to Everette Brown, the defensive line has been a focal point for the great Florida State teams.

Brandon Jenkins leads the group of quarterback hunters into the new season as he looks to improve upon his 13.5 sacks from a year ago. With returning players such as Bjoern Werner, Jacobbi McDaniel and Everett Dawkins, the Seminoles look to get back to the exact same place they left off in 2010.

Mix in some of the four star freshmen coming into the team, such as Timmy Jernigan and Giorgio Newberry, and this unit should have plenty of depth to attack the passer nonstop. Mark Stoops added some glowing words of praise for Jernigan this past week as well.

“For the young guys, if you want to single out one that's impressed, Timmy has done a great job. He looks like he's everything he's been built up to be.”

A deep defensive line that has fresh talent ready to contribute has Mark Stoops rubbing his hands together, waiting for the season to begin. The Seminoles' rock-solid secondary should also provide some extra time for the defensive line to get at the quarterback in 2011—a scary thought for any player lined up behind center on the Seminoles’ schedule this coming season.

5. The Seminoles Will Win Their First ACC Title Since 2005

All the talk that took place about the Florida State Seminoles and Miami Hurricanes reigning supreme over the ACC when Miami joined the conference sure seems comical at this point in time. The Seminoles won the inaugural conference championship game and have yet to claim another ACC championship since 2005.

This stat alone reminds Seminole fans everywhere of their disheartening decline from the top of the college football world in the 2000s. Nevertheless, Florida State are overwhelming favorites to represent their division in the ACC Championship Game in 2011.

Odds-on favorites to be their opponent in that game are the Virginia Tech Hokies. If everything plays out as predicted during the preseason, the Seminoles have a chance at redemption from their sloppy performance in the squall that took place down in Charlotte last season for the conference championship.

Due to their light schedule, the Virginia Tech Hokies, if they make it, should go into that game with a fairly high ranking, possibly top 10. However, Florida State should be the favorites if they beat the likes of Oklahoma, Clemson, Miami and Florida during the regular season, or even win three of those four.

The ACC Championship Game could be the final hurdle holding the Seminoles back from their first BCS appearance since the 2005 season, or possibly a National Championship Game berth.

Expect a seasoned Seminoles squad to seize the moment and scalp those bunch of turkeys—err, hokies—from Blacksburg, Virginia, or whoever they face in Charlotte. 

6. FSU Will Be Ranked No. 1 in October’s First Poll Release

This may not be the boldest prediction on the scale of preseason prediction boldness, but it is out there. Listen, I know this sounds crazy and premature, but what would a list of bold predictions be without any gumption on my part? Not to mention, the unpredictability of college football means anything could go down.

The way I see it, the Seminoles have to take care of business against the Oklahoma Sooners, avoid the let-down game at Clemson the following week and then watch the other dominoes fall.

As I noted earlier this month, I believe the Alabama Crimson Tide will come into 2011 a tad bit overrated and have a tough time coming out of “the swamp” unscathed with a new, wide-eyed starting quarterback running the show. I do not care how good you were in high school or how good of a supporting cast you have, every quarterback goes through a baptism in their first true SEC road test—some sink and others rise to the occasion.

The Oregon Ducks play the LSU Tigers in a matchup of No. 3 versus No. 4 in Dallas. That knocks out one of those two teams from the Top Five. Add in the possible Alabama upset, a possible Georgia Bulldogs win over the Boise State Broncos in Atlanta and a Florida State victory over the Oklahoma Sooners, and you have yourself a Seminoles team being considered for the No. 1 spot in the polls.

This, of course, depends on a variety of factors. How convincing will Oregon or LSU be in their victories? Will the voters penalize Oregon if they beat an LSU team without their starting quarterback?

Most importantly though, it all depends on how well Florida State plays in prime time against Oklahoma. The entire nation will be watching that game, including a majority of pollsters. If FSU shows the country they’re the real deal, they could be sitting on top of the polls going into the second month of the season.

7. E.J. Manuel Will Be in the Running for the Heisman Trophy

There’s a certain Lil Wayne song that comes to mind that every Florida State fan will be singing this year if the Virginia-born quarterback lives up to his billing. It goes a little something like this:

“Go E.J., you’re my E.J. Go E.J., you’re my E.J.”

We have all seen what a mobile, athletically-gifted quarterback can do for a team in college football. Tim Tebow tortured the Seminoles as a starter for three very, very long seasons and Cam Newton took the SEC by storm last year, leading the Auburn Tigers to a national championship.

E.J. Manuel has an advantage those two did not have. He sat the bench for three seasons, soaking up the offense and waiting his turn. It cannot be overstated how maturity at the quarterback position in college football can turn into tangible results.

Manuel sat behind Christian Ponder for two seasons and finished off those seasons for the oft-injured Ponder in big road games and bowl games. He started in the last game of legendary coach Bobby Bowden’s career in the Gator Bowl. Talk about pressure.

Who would want to be the starting quarterback that sends the Seminole coaching icon out on a losing note?

Manuel proved he could handle the pressure in that New Year's Day victory. He also started in other big games at Florida in 2009, in the ACC Championship Game last season and took over for the injured Ponder in the first half of last season's Chik-fil-A Bowl. He may have lost the Florida and ACC Championship Games, but that kind of experience cannot be underestimated for a young quarterback’s development.

If Florida State expects to make a run at the National Championship, E.J. Manuel must deliver in 2011. All signs show he is more than capable of producing results in 2011.

8. FSU Will Destroy Miami

Okay, all of these slides have the Florida State Seminoles doing positive things. This slide has something that should be expected after the NCAA and Yahoo! Sports investigation cited an obscene amount of violations for the trouble-ridden program.

FSU has a deceivingly tough schedule. Their schedule contains some sly tests that could trip them up. Not to mention the usual rivalry games that Seminole fans think will be cakewalks along the road lined with fairy dust, or should I say sugar.

The Seminoles get to host the Miami Hurricanes in an unusually late season game between the two.

The week before the Miami matchup FSU plays a midweek game versus Boston College on a Thursday night, followed up by the Hurricanes. The last time either team has won at home in the Miami-Florida State series was back in 2005 when the Seminoles beat Miami 10-7 on Labor Day.

That streak will not only be broken this year, but emphatically destroyed.

In 2008, the Noles traveled to Miami as they racked up an early halftime lead. In 2009, Florida State entered the fourth quarter with a 23-17 lead, but failed to convert a last gasp winner when Ponder short armed a throw into the endzone in the final seconds. In 2010, Jimbo Fisher's squad went into the half with a commanding 24-7 lead and cruised to a 45-17 victory in the second half.

The extra days of practice coming off a Thursday night game will allow a Seminoles squad eager to make an impression to rest up before Miami comes to town. You have to believe that the extra days of preparation, practice, and rest will recharge the team's batteries.

Do not be surprised if this game gets exceedingly ugly, or beautiful if you are a Seminoles fan, in the second half. Jimbo Fisher will have these guys amped to play. He can give one hell of a motivational speech.

9. Jimbo Fisher Will Win Coach of the Year

Jimbo Fisher proved the Florida State powers-at-be made the right decision to part ways with the aging Bobby Bowden and let their coach-in-waiting take over the program.

Boy, he did not fail to disappoint. Fisher beat the Florida Gators and Miami Hurricanes in the same season for the first time since 1999, led the Seminoles to the ACC Championship Game and won a New Year's Eve bowl game. Not too shabby for your first year on the job.

Jimbo Fisher wasted no time capitalizing on his first -ear success by hauling in the nation’s top recruiting class during the spring.

In fact, Fisher probably made it harder on himself going into 2011, with expectations now through the roof. However, the stage remains ready for the second-year coach to take the country by storm.

A disciple of Nick Saban, Fisher is no stranger to big games and learned how to win during his time in Baton Rouge. If the Noles can repeat their feats from last season, add an ACC championship crown and win a BCS bowl game, I implore you to find a better candidate for Coach of the Year.

If Florida State runs the table this season, which could happen if this team passes the “We’re back” test, then Jimbo Fisher will easily win the Coach of the Year award in 2011. 

10. Florida State Will Run the Table and Win a National Championship

The slide you have all been waiting for. The FSU will win the National Championship slide.

It is not out of the realm of possibility, but some things must fall into place for the Seminoles in 2011 for this to become a reality.

First, E.J. Manuel must live up to the hype. Nationally, there may not be too many people that are familiar with the Seminoles new starting quarterback, but around the ACC teams many have already lost hours of sleep game planning for him.

As I mentioned in a previous slide, he has started and filled in during big games and was the No. 1 quarterback recruit coming out of high school in 2008. Manuel has all the tangibles and intangibles to exceed his expectations for 2011.

Second, the defense must come together and improve upon their first year under Mark Stoops. Their second year in the system includes a full offseason nailing down the schematics in practice and the film room.

One thing that the last five national champions have had in common (besides being in the SEC) is a dominating defense. The Seminoles have all the starting pieces in place and plenty of depth at each position to field a menacing defense.

Last but not least, the Seminoles must travel down to Gainesville to face their hated rivals, the Florida Gators. And you better believe that if the Gators stand between the Seminoles and a national championship appearance, the boys down in Gainesville will throw the kitchen sink at them.

Outside of the Oklahoma game, this game should provide the toughest test for the Noles and their hopes for a third national championship. If they can beat the Gators in “the swamp,” I do not foresee a team that the Seminoles could not defeat in order to raise that crystal football under a downpour of confetti in ‘Nawlins.