Three Yards and a Cloud of Dust: Rating the Big Ten Rushing Offenses

If there is one thing that Midwestern folks like to see from their football teams in the fall, it is a punishing ground game.  The Big Ten is a league built on the legends of dynamic running backs and the coaches who loved them.

While the modern passing game plays an important role in the success of any offense these days, there will come a time when the big bodies up front will have to drive the pile for a couple yards.  When it happens, you can bet someone old and allergic to changes in the game will smile and think: "Hey, just like the old days."

What teams will have the most success moving the ball on the ground this year?  Let's look at the numbers to find out.

(All yardage, carry and touchdown stats from NCAA.org.  All S&P+ rankings from Football Outsiders.)

Illinois

The 2010 story in numbers:

- 246 yards per game (11th nation/1st Big Ten)

- 49th S&P+ rushing rankings (106.1)

- 29 touchdowns

The departed:

- Mikel Leshoure: 281 rushes, 1697 yards, 17 TDs, 6.0 ypc

The returning candidates (2010 stats):

- RS-So. Nathan Scheelhaase: 185 rushes, 868 yards, 5 TDs, 4.7 ypc

- Sr. Jason Ford: 99 rushes, 480 yards, 7 TDs, 4.8 ypc

- Sr. Troy Pollard: 24 rushes, 109 yards, 0 TDs, 4.5 ypc

Other possible contributors:

- So. Bud Golden

Looking into the crystal ball:

Illinois doesn't return much depth at running back after losing leading rusher Mikel Leshoure, but the offensive line returns its entire left side (LT Jeff Allen, LG Hugh Thornton and C Graham Pocic) while shuffling an experienced backup into the mix at right guard (Jack Cornell).

If Scheelhaase can mature in the passing game—which one would think he would be able to do as a second year starter in the same offensive system—it will take some of the heat off of the ground game and pull defenders out of the box.  It also helps that Scheelhaase is one of the more dangerous runners on the team, and the perfect counter to any linebacker or safety that decides to cheat.

Ford is a bruiser who was a good change of pace from Leshoure last season.  Pollard hasn't put up a lot of numbers, but has seen action in almost every game the last two years, and should provide a solid number two option behind Ford.

Overall, one of the stronger units in the Big Ten looks like it has the pieces in place to continue producing at a high level.

Final Grade: 7.5/10.  Between offensive coordinator Paul Petrino, Scheelhaase, Ford and a solid offensive line, Illinois will be one of the better Big Ten rushing offenses. 

Indiana

The 2010 story in numbers:

- 100 yards per game (112th nation/11th Big Ten)

- 101st S&P+ rushing rankings (87.8)

- 13 touchdowns

The departed:

- Trea Burgess: 104 rushes, 352 yards, 3 TDs, 3.4 ypc

- Tandon Doss (WR): 28 rushes, 163 yards, 1 TD, 5.8 ypc

The returning candidates (2010 stats):

- RS-Jr. Darius Willis: 64 rushes, 278 yards, 4 TDs, 4.3 ypc (in four games)

Other possible contributors:

- RS-So.Nick Turner

- RS-Fr. Matt Perez

Looking into the crystal ball:

Indiana had a lot working against it in the ground game for 2010.  The offense was a pass heavy spread, the offensive line wasn't very good and the best back on the roster went down with an injury in the first game of the Big Ten season.

In 2011... not much has changed.  New coach Kevin Wilson is still going to air things out—although his time at Oklahoma proves he can produce a solid ground game as a compliment—Darius Willis is still injury prone and the offensive line is largely the same guys as it was last year (only RT James Brewer is gone).

What does all this mean?  Pain, if I had to guess.  This is a team that wasn't very good at running last year, and probably won't be any better this year unless the offensive line takes a big step forward under the new offensive staff and Willis stays healthy.  Those are two big "ifs."

Final Grade: 2/10. Maybe a 3/10 if Willis stays healthy all season.  Maybe.

Iowa

The 2010 story in numbers:

- 148 yards per game (70th nation/8th Big Ten)

- 54th S&P+ rushing rankings (104.4)

- 16 touchdowns

The departed:

- Adam Robinson: 203 rushes, 941 yards, 10 TDs, 4.6 ypc

- Jewel Hampton: 27 rushes, 114 yards, 1 TD, 4.2

- Paki O'Meara: 10 rushes, 56 yards, 5.6 ypc

- Brandon Wegher: 162 rushes, 641 yards, 8 TDs, 4.0 ypc (2009)

The returning candidates (2010 stats):

- So. Marcus Coker: 114 rushes, 622 yards, 3 TDs, 5.4 ypc

Possible contributors:

- RS-Fr. De'Andre Johnson

Looking into the crystal ball:

What was once an embarrassment of riches in the backfield quickly turned into just an embarrassment as Robinson, Hampton and Wegher all left the program over the past year—Angry Iowa Running Back God strikes again.  Luckily, true freshman Marcus Coker stepped into the role without much trouble and should be a solid number one back in 2011.

The offensive line is still strong, as Iowa is proving as adept at molding offensive linemen in the last decade as Wisconsin (although with 10% less BEEF).  Left tackle Riley Rieff returns, as do center James Ferentz and right tackle Marcus Zusevics.  

With a solid foundation returning on the line and a promising running back in Coker, the Hawkeyes have the personnel to move the ball on the ground effectively.  Only a series of injuries could derail what should be a solid rushing attack.

Final Grade: 5.5/10. Iowa does what it does: run between the tackles.  It should do it better than average again this year.

Michigan

The 2010 story in numbers:

- 238 yards per game (13th nation/3rd Big Ten)

- 2nd S&P+ rushing ranking (137.3)

- 35 touchdowns

The departed:

- None

The returning candidates (2010 stats):

- Jr. Denard Robinson: 256 rushes, 1702 yards, 14 TDs, 6.6 ypc

- Jr. Vincent Smith: 136 rushes, 601 yards, 5 TDs, 4.4 ypc

- Sr. Michael Shaw: 75 rushes, 402 yards, 9 TDs, 5.4 ypc

- So. Stephen Hopkins: 37 rushes, 151 yards, 4 TDs, 4.1 ypc

Other possible contributors:

- RS-So. Fitzgerald Toussaint

- RS-Jr. Michael Cox

Looking into the crystal ball:

Michigan has a wealth of options at running back.  The problem?  None of them have done anything in their time playing in Ann Arbor.  The last productive back the Wolverines had was the oft injured Brandon Minor in '08 and '09.  

Since Rich Rodriguez took over, the Wolverines have run out a platoon of different sized/skilled running backs: Vincent Smith, the scat back; Michael Shaw, the burner; Stephen Hopkins, the bruiser.  No one has stuck in the role.  Smith and Shaw both have had injury concerns, and Hopkins dealt with a case of fumble-itis that kept him from getting more time as a feature back.

Luckily for the Wolverines, you don't need a feature running back when you have Denard Robinson taking snaps.  Robinson was electric in 2010, leading the Big Ten in rushing yards and putting a whole new ceiling on what a mobile quarterback can do in the right system.

Now that system is gone, and Brady Hoke is running the show.  While Hoke pounds his fist and speaks fondly of "MANBALL," his offensive coordinator is less committed to the idea.  Al Borges has run a variety of different packages out of his west coast offense, and he knows what he has to work with.

Robinson will still get carries—around 10-15 a game instead of 20+—but the running backs will take a bigger load in the 2011 offense.  This could fall on one of the four returning contributors from last year, or one of the two practice players that have come in for the most praise over spring and fall camps in the last two years: Michael Cox and Fitzgerald Toussaint.

Smart money is on Shaw taking the bulk of the carries, Smith playing the third-down back and Hopkins et al getting spot carries until they show an ability to shoulder the offensive load.

The line returns three starters, including all-conference center David Molk and red-shirt sophomore bookend Taylor Lewan.  Red-shirt junior Patrick Omameh will be joined by first-time starter Ricky Barnum, and either senior Mark Huyge or red-shirt sophomore Michael Schofield will win the job at RT (Huyge having started at RT, LT and RG over the past couple years).

The Wolverines have a lot of talent returning on the lines and under center, but until a back steps up and claims the job, the Wolverines will be a ways away from the dominant ground force of last year

Final Grade: 7/10. This ranking could be higher if a running back steps up.  It could also be lower if Robinson fails to find running success in the new offense.  Seven feel just right.

Michigan State

The 2010 story in numbers:

- 152 yards per game (64th nation/7th Big Ten)

- 26th S&P+ rushing ranking (115.5)

- 25 touchdowns

The departed:

- None

The returning candidates (2010 stats):

- Jr. Edwin Baker: 207 rushes, 1201 yards, 13 TDs, 5.8 ypc

- So. Le'Veon Bell: 107 rushes, 605 yards, 8 TDs, 5.6 ypc

- Jr. Larry Caper: 38 rushes, 144 yards, 2 TDs, 3.8 ypc

Other possible contributors:

- Sr. Keshawn Martin (WR): 18 rushes, 157 yards, 8.7 ypc

Looking into the crystal ball:

Michigan State suffers the opposite problem of its rival in Ann Arbor.

The Spartans are positively loaded at tailback.  Edwin Baker is the kind of feature back that pro-style teams salivate over.  Baker is big enough (5'9 210lbs) to be the offense's workhorse, but with wheels enough to be a big time threat.

Backing him up is Le'Veon Bell, who was so good as a true freshman that he stole enough carries from Baker to finish second on the team in rushing.  If that isn't enough, Larry Caper also returns. Caper has been productive the last two years, and looks to fill the third-down back role again.

If the Spartans look to mix things up, wide receiver Keshawn Martin boasts an almost nine-yard per carry average, and is a threat to break a big play any time he touches the ball.  One would imagine that there will be a few reverses called this fall to take advantage of this dynamic playmaker.

The problem for the Spartans is replacing three starters from an average 2010 offensive line.  Both tackles are gone, along with last year's center.  So far, Michigan State has had a heated battle for all three spots and infused the competition with two converted DTs.  However, the Spartan line was poor at opening up running lanes late in the season, and with a harder schedule this year, the line will have to take a step forward; a tough task when replacing three starters.

Final Grade: 6/10. With an experienced line this grade would be much higher, but too many questions surround the big men up front.  Still a solid rushing attack, trending upward to 2012.

Minnesota

The 2010 story in numbers:

- 135 yards per game (86th nation/10th Big Ten)

- 61st S&P+ rushing rankings (101.6)

- 14 touchdowns

The departed:

- DeLeon Eskridge: 193 rushes, 698 yards, 7 TDs, 3.6 ypc

The returning candidates (2010 stats):

- RS-Sr. Duane Bennett: 123 rushes, 529 yards, 3 TDs, 4.3 ypc

- Jr. MarQueis Gray (QB): 23 rushes, 110 yards, 1 TD, 4.7 ypc

- RS-Fr. Donnell Kirkwood: 27 rushes, 107 yards, 4.0 ypc

Other possible contributors:

- None

Looking into the crystal ball:

The good news?  Jerry Kill is the kind of old-school coach that values a strong running game.  The bad news?  He ain't gonna have it in year one.

The rushing load will most likely be shouldered by the two returning backs, Bennett and Kirkwood, while Gray keeps defenses honest with the athleticism that allowed him to play wide receiver last year. Regardless of who is running the ball, there wasn't much production last year by any of these three and transitioning to a new offense should set the unit back.

Compounding matters is the fact that the Gophers have to replace three starters on the offensive line. Overall, the entire offensive line depth chart is pretty green—just four players have starting experience. This bodes well for the future, but in the present these kids will have to take their knocks.

Final Grade: 3/10. This could be higher depending on how well Gray is used in the run game, and how well the line comes together, but it could be lower, too.

Nebraska

The 2010 story in numbers:

- 247 yards per game (9th nation/1st Big 12 [or 1st Big Ten])

- 42nd S&P+ rushing ranking (108.3)

- 32 touchdowns

The departed:

- Roy Helu Jr.: 188 rushes, 1245 yards, 11 TDs, 6.6 ypc

The returning candidates (2010 stats):

- RS-So. Taylor Martinez (QB): 162 rushes, 965 yards, 12 TDs, 6.0 ypc

- Jr. Rex Burkhead: 172 rushes, 951 yards, 7 TDs, 5.5 ypc

Other possible contributors:

- Sr. Austin Jones

Looking into the crystal ball:

The Cornhuskers are a tough act to get a read on.  The pure numbers from 2010 are very impressive, but when you read between the lines, the rushing offense wasn't nearly as dominant as it seems by reading the totals.

Much of the production was run up in the first half of the schedule with a healthy Martinez at quarterback, and once he was injured the offense production plummeted, with Roy Helu Jr. being the main saving grace.  Burkhead seems to be a capable replacement for the full-time role, but he could struggle without help in the backfield.

Furthermore, Martinez needs to stay healthy-—a tall task after the precedent set last year—for this offense to be as diverse and dynamic as the coaches would like.  Also, development in the passing game could help open up room to run on the ground by keeping defenses from loading up against the run.

The offensive line returns two starters (left tackle Jeremiah Sirles, center Mike Caputo) as well as Marcel Jones, who missed time in 2010 with an injury but has experience starting.  Finding contributions from a young group of offensive linemen will be key.

Final Grade: 6.5/10. With a healthy Martinez, a solid No. 2 running back and cohesion on the O-line, this group is capable of anything.  None of those three things are assured right now.

Northwestern

The 2010 story in numbers:

- 155 yards per game (58th nation/6th Big Ten)

- 50th S&P+ rushing rankings (106.1)

- 22 touchdowns

The departed:

- Arby Fields: 62 rushes, 178 yards, 1 TD, 2.9 ypc

The returning candidates (2010 stats):

- RS-So. Mike Trumpy: 116 rushes, 530 yards, 4 TDs, 4.6 ypc

- RS-Sr. Dan Persa (QB): 164 rushes, 519 yards, 9 TDs, 3.2 ypc

- So. Adonis Smith: 41 rushes, 196 yards, 4.8 ypc

- RS-Sr. Jacob Schmidt: 49 rushes, 161 yards, 4 TDs, 3.3 ypc

Other possible contributors:

- None

Looking into the crystal ball:

Northwestern wasn't a team that "wowed" anyone on the ground in 2010.  No one rushed for over 600 yards, none of the main runners reached a yards per carry average of five and backs three to seven all had between 100 and 200 yards.

This is a group that just chips away.  Just like the passing game, Northwestern looks for a few yards at a time in hopes of stringing together a long drive.  Big play threat, they are not.

Thankfully, pretty much everyone of consequence is back in 2011.  Persa isn't fully healthy, but back-up QB Kain Colter has performed well enough this fall to earn the coaches' confidence.  

With emerging running backs Mike Trumpy and Adonis Smith to hand the ball to, it should be an easier running load for whoever is taking snaps. These two sophomores were two of the better backs NU had, and they must build on the success of 2010 for this offense to take a step forward.

Four starters return from the 2010 offensive line, but the group as a whole will need to step up production in 2011.

Final Grade: 4/10. While this group could be better, it would be unfair to rate them close to rushing attacks like Iowa and MSU.  With a banged up Persa and nothing but flashes of potential from the two sophomore backs, this looks to be another nondescript rushing attack.  

Ohio State

The 2010 story in numbers:

- 220 yards per game (14th nation/4th Big Ten)

- 9th S&P+ rushing rankings (126.7)

- 227 touchdowns

The departed:

- Terrelle Pryor (QB): 135 rushes, 754 yards, 4 TDs, 5.6 ypc

- Brandon Saine: 70 rushes, 337 yards, 2 TDs, 4.8 ypc

The returning candidates (2010 stats):

- RS-Sr. Dan "Boom" Herron: 216 rushes, 1155 yards, 16 TDs, 5.3 ypc (suspended 5 games)

- RS-So. Jamal Berry: 32 rushes, 266 yards, 1 TD, 8.3 ypc

- Jr. Jordan Hall: 37 rushes, 161 yards, 2 TDs, 4.4 ypc 

- So. Carlos Hyde: 24 rushes, 141 yards, 5.9 ypc

Other possible contributors:

- RS-Fr. Rod Smith

- Fr. Braxton Miller (QB)

Looking into the crystal ball:

With three body-bag games and the corpse of Miami's rotting program on the schedule in the first four games, it should allow the Buckeyes to find a rushing offense that isn't named "Boom."

Herron would be the unquestioned starter at running back if it weren't for that pesky five-game suspension.  In his place, Berry, Hall, Hyde and red-shirt freshman Smith should all get a good shot at showing their stuff against the chaff of the schedule.  Game five against Michigan State presents the first big challenge, but by then one would think the Buckeyes would have found a rhythm.

One position that may not add much to the ground game this year is quarterback.  If Joe Bauserman wins the job, one can imagine he won't be running his way onto many highlight reels.  True freshman Braxton Miller, the other threat to start, is a Pryor clone with the athleticism to make defenses pay for leaving rush lanes open.

The offensive line is strong, as always.  Mike Brewster will be back in the middle to anchor the front, JB Shugarts returns at right tackle and Mike Adams will be back at left tackle after five games.  Finding a replacement for the two guard spots should be easy for the talent-rich Buckeyes.

Final Grade: 6.5/10. With Adams and Herron in the lineup all season, this is probably almost an eight. Pryor would have pushed it even higher.  Alas, almost half the season is going to be spent breaking in some younger players.  That's good for the future, but the immediate returns won't be out of this world.

Penn State

The 2010 story in numbers:

- 142 yards per game (74th nation/9th Big Ten)

- 68th S&P+ rushing rankings (100.3)

- 16 touchdowns

The departed:

- Evan Royster: 208 rushes, 1014 yards, 6 TDs, 4.9 ypc

- Stephfon Green: 48 rushes, 188 yards, 1 TD, 3.9 ypc

The returning candidates (2010 stats):

- So. Silas Redd: 77 rushes, 437 yards, 2 TDs, 5.7 ypc

Other possible contributors:

- RS-Jr. Brandon Beachum

Looking into the crystal ball:

Penn State's running game took a hit when it lost all-time leading rusher Evan Royster to graduation. It took another hit this month when it was revealed that running back Stephfon Green had left the team.

Thankfully, sophomore Silas Redd showed promise as second option in the backfield in 2010, and will look to carry the load this fall.  Redd was a highly thought of recruit, and did enough as a freshman to give Penn State fans something to smile about come September.

The offensive line returns both its tackles—Quinn Barham and Chima Okoli—and left guard Johnnie Troutman, but the unit as a whole struggled at run blocking in 2010 and needs to see a big improvement when replacing the two other interior linemen.

Compound these problems with a passing game that is far from settled—not to mention trustworthy—and Penn State is faced with a situation where the running game will have to deliver.

Final Grade: 4.5/10. I don't care if "this is Penn State."  The fact is the line was mediocre last year and the depth at running back is nearly non-existent now.  Redd has talent, but it could be a couple years before this offense gets to the point where he can show it off.

Purdue

The 2010 story in numbers:

- 160 yards per game (49th nation/5th Big Ten)

- 102nd S&P+ rushing rankings (87.8)

- 12 touchdowns

The departed:

- Dan Dierking: 117 rushes, 529 yards, 3 TDs, 4.5 ypc

- Keith Carlos: 56 rushes, 314 yards, 2 TDs, 5.6 ypc

- Al-Terek McBurse: 22 rushes, 189 yards, 1 TD, 8.6 ypc 

The unavailable:

- Rob Henry (QB) (ACL injury): 104 rushes, 547 yards, 4 TDs, 5.3 ypc 

The returning candidates (2010 stats):

- RS-Jr. Ralph Bolden: 200 rushes, 935 yards, 9 TDs, 4.7 ypc (2009)

Other possible contributors:

- JUCO transfer Akeem Shavers

- So. Reggie Pergam

- RS-Sr. Robert Marve (QB)

Looking into the crystal ball:

What you see above is the wasteland that has become Purdue football in the past year.  Last year, the Boilermakers lost their best quarterback, running back and wide receiver to season-ending injury. That was just the beginning.

Missing so much offensive firepower hampered the Purdue offense.  The raw rushing numbers look good (160 ypg), but the S&P+ rankings show that the running game just wasn't efficient or effective. WIthout a credible passing threat, the Boilermakers were forced to run into stacked lines.  The results were not pretty.

The stand-in at quarterback and top rusher from 2010, Rob Henry, carries on the curse of the knee injury, as he injured his ACL in fall practice and will miss the season.  Presumed starter Robert Marve is still nursing his ACL injury back to health after missing most of 2010.  The outlook at quarterback is bleak.

Luckily, Ralph Bolden is back from an ACL injury of his own in 2010 (noticing a pattern?), and could be a big difference maker for Purdue.  In 2009, Bolden had a breakout season and looks to build on that in 2011.

Thankfully, the line returns four starters, and should be relatively strong for Purdue this fall. 

Final Grade: 3/10. While the line should be good and Bolden is a true No. 1 back, Purdue is not going to be able to pass the ball effectively for quite some time, which means lots of eight and nine man fronts.  Look for another year of above average yards but poor scoring.

Wisconsin

The 2010 story in numbers:

- 245 yards per game (12th nation/2nd Big Ten)

- 4th S&P+ rushing rankings (132.9)

- 48 touchdowns

The departed:

- John Clay: 187 rushes, 1012 yards, 14 TDs, 5.4 ypc

The returning candidates (2010 stats):

- So. James White: 156 rushes, 1052 yards, 14 TDs, 6.7 ypc

- Jr. Montee Ball: 163 rushes, 996 yards, 18 TDs, 6.1 ypc

Other possible contributors:

- Russell Wilson.

Looking into the crystal ball:

Not many teams could afford to lose a thousand-yard rusher who scored 14 touchdowns.

Not many teams are Wisconsin.

It is hard to state just how thoroughly good Wisconsin was on offense in 2010, and a lot of that success was built on the back of one of the most efficient running games in the country.

Montee Ball made a definite leap from good to great after a very good freshman campaign that saw him back up starter John Clay to the tune of 300 yards.  Ball tripled that production in 2010, led the team in touchdowns and had a very impressive 6.1 ypc average.

That in itself would qualify as "breakout performer of the year" if it weren't for true freshman James White, who not only broke into a rotation that included two very good backs ahead of him, but he led the team in rushing yards and yards per carry average while tying John Clay for second in rushing touchdowns.  In fact, by the end of the season, John Clay was arguably the third best running back on the roster.

One reason the running game might trip up is the lack of pinpoint-accurate Scott Tolzien passing the the ball.  However, replacing Tolzien is NC State transfer Russell Wilson, who just happened to run for 435 yards and nine touchdowns last year.  While accuracy may not be his thing, Wilson had low INT totals at NC State, and is always a threat to turn a broken play into a big gain.

The offensive line loses two outstanding players from the left side, but returns multi-year starters at center and right guard.  Besides, if there was ever a team that could be counted on to reload its offensive line, it is Wisconsin.

Final Grade: 9.5/10. Marked down half a point only because the left side of the line will be breaking in new starters.  This group is as close to a 10 as a team can get without returning every player from a top-five rushing offense.  There is no reason to think that Wisconsin won't lead the Big Ten in rush yards and touchdowns in 2011, as well as be a top-ten unit in the nation.

That is a scary thought for defenses all over the Midwest, but great news if you love smash mouth football.   

Predictions

This is where I get to look like an idiot on the written record.  Specific totals are included to double down on that.

Top Five Big Ten Rushing Offenses:

1. Wisconsin (235 ypg)

2. Illinois (210 ypg)

3. Nebraska (205 ypg)

4. Ohio State (200 ypg)

5. Michigan (195 ypg) 

Top Five Running Backs:

1. James White (1550 yards)

2. Edwin Baker (1451 yards)

3. Montee Ball (1350 yards)

4. Marcus Coker (1201 yards)

5. Jason Ford (1200 yards)

Top Three "Breakout" Performers:

1. Silas Redd (1000 yards)

2. Michael Shaw (900 yards)

3. Mike Trumpy (850 yards)

Top Five Rushing Quarterbacks:

1. Nathan Scheelhaase (900 yards) 

2. Denard Robinson (850 yards)

3. Taylor Martinez (700 yards)

4. MarQueis Gray (550 yards)

5. Dan Persa (450 yards)

Top Five Touchdown Scorers:

1. Montee Ball (20 TDs)

2. Edwin Baker (15 TDs)

3. Jason Ford (14 TDs)   

4. James White (14 TDs)

5. Marcus Coker (12 TDs)