Texas A&M to the SEC? Here's a Primer for Big 12 and SEC Fans

Texas A&M is looking for new boots.

That was the news out of College Station last week. Yesterday, college preview shows sent folks all over the SEC buzzing with anticipation of what might be in store for them this week.

Will the Aggies be slurping Dreamland (Tuscaloosa) barbeque and shopping at Toomers Corner (Auburn) during next year's regular season play? Or will the news of the past week be stuffed like cows into a trailer, passed off as nothing but mindless talk? 

Texas A&M officials put the rumors to rest on Thursday, saying the school might leave the Big 12 conference. The speculation caught the fancies of airwave jocks and sports columnists.  

Then, word leaked out through the Associated Press over the weekend that the school's departure was discussed among the Big 12's board of directors, although that story has yet to be confirmed.  

What is known is this: Texas A&M President R. Bowen Loftin made his intentions official in the form of a letter to Big 12 Commissioner Dan Beebe. In that letter, he said the school is "exploring options related to the institution's athletic conference affiliation."  That letter, when combined with University of Florida's president Bernie Machen's remarks on August 14 have converged into a cluster of questions that have yet been officially answered. Machen indicated then that the SEC was content with its current 12-school conference.

Could the the Aggies really bring their pomp to the Southland?

Whatever they do, according to Loftin's letter, they desire to do it in full compliance with the Big 12's bylaws, including remaining proactive in finding another team to replace the vacant spot they will leave. That's like saying, "I'm resigning from my job, but don't worry, I'll help you find a replacement who's as talented as me." No one really cares about the replacement. What they do care about is a slew of contracts the Aggies will leave behind.

What will it mean for the SEC? Could the Aggies—whose various sporting venues already mesh with SEC teams like Arkansas and Florida—share the limelight with the most dominant league in college football, and if so, how and when would it happen?

According to Loftin, the reasons for exploring are long term and "extremely complex," and a decision will take time. How much time depends on a few factors, including if the SEC can and will invite the Aggies into the magic kingdom.

So grab your ten-gallon hat and a cold brew and chew on these thoughts.

Reasons Why the Texas Aggies Are Shopping Conferences

It's no secret.  When the Big 12 Conference is stacked against others by revenue, it comes in third.  

The Big Ten stands tall at $22 million per school annually.  The Southeastern Conference is a close second with $17 million per school.  The Big 12 brings between $7 and $12 million in revenue per school each year.  So, according to Loftin's letter, apart from seeking "greater visibility nationwide" for Texas A&M, the move would also "maximize our assets and generate additional revenues both now and well into the future."

This much is known. A move to the SEC would be explosive in terms of bringing revenue to Texas A&M.  

But what would happen within the state of Texas if they pulled out of the Big 12? According to a study by The Perryman Group shared on Sports Illustrated's Andy Staples' blog, if Texas A&M left the conference and the conference remained stable with the same teams (minus A&M), "the decreases of business activity in the state would be $217.2 million (gross product)." According to that same study, the state could lose up $1 billion in total spending. 

As for the SEC, an expansion into the Texas market would open innumerable doors for additional sponsorship dollars, increased audiences, and ticket sales, and hence, increased exposure to midwest recruits.  According to sources, the SEC is cautious about such a move, as Texas A&M just happens to be part of a 13-year contract with Fox Sports that might bring trouble to the South if the Aggies come riding into SEC headquarters in Birmingham.

Restless Aggies: Reasons Behind the SEC Lure

Why is Texas A&M "exploring" other conference options? After all, they've only been a part of the conference since the mid '90s.

Two words: Money talks.  Plus, there are a few other minor distractions.

Picture this: Your greatest football rival gets its own television network. Suddenly Bevo becomes the most Tivo'd beast in the land.  What's an in-state rivalry school supposed to do when it can't begin to compete with an exclusive network?

Some say the Aggies are looking forward to the SEC like it's the land of Oz, a place where everything's beautiful.  Their plans are to flee to the land where Dorothy clicks her ruby slippers three times, eats a Chick-fil-A sandwich in the Georgia Dome, and devours dessert—a college football national championship—served on a silver platter. Do dreams really come true in the SEC?

Maybe Texas A&M is about to find out.  

As the Texas A&M president works to orchestrate a switch so complicated that even their own fans don't know how to accept it, behind the scenes, the schools of the Big 12 are preparing for the Aggies' exit. They see it coming, growing stronger and wider like a hurricane heading to the east coast.

The Aggies: Jumping the Big 12 Hurdles to the SEC

All said, should the South Carolina Gamecocks worry about the maroon and white Aggies creeping into their coop like a fox? 

Should the pregame crowd at the SEC Conference Championship at the Georgia Dome be thinking about trading their "Hi y'alls" to "Hee-haws" anytime soon?

There's nothing to worry about just yet.  But look down the road to 2012 or 2013.  As they say in Texas, no one's home right now, but the lights are on.

The timeline for an Aggie switchover is a complicated one that can be compared to a coach leaving a school.  Since the Aggies have admitted to going "exploring," there will have to be a buyout that could be long and messy.  The ciphering has started.

So far, the Aggies have expressed an interest to "explore," and to inquire about the steps for such a move. Besides, a school that has signed contracts with its conference can't just up and move. The legalities of schedules are already set in stone. There are radio and television contract obligations, budgeting, logistics of travel, and many other areas under scrutiny before a move would be possible. Oh, and there's one other glitch: to attend the party, they must be invited, and thus far, the SEC hasn't formally extended a bid.

The party's not over 'til it's over, so for now, the Aggies are on track for Big 12 conference action, at least this year.

Chew on that.

How Likely Is It That the Aggies Will Make an SEC Move?

Can the Big 12 Conference survive the loss of the Aggies, and how likely is this to happen?

So far, the SEC has been unofficially silent on the matter, however, no one really knows what is going on behind closed doors.  If they extend an invitation to the Aggies, chances are, they would desire balance, and most likely discuss options with another team, possibly Florida State.

The word is that Southern Methodist University (SMU) has expressed an interest in leaving Conference USA and heading into the Big 12, but it would have to buck line with Notre Dame, and maybe even BYU. To summarize, Big 12 officials aren't concerned about filling the vacancy just yet. They are well aware of the A-list of prospective schools ready to move in.

Decisions will come down to the presidents' level on both sides: the Big 12 and the SEC. For Texas A&M, if leaving costs as much as $20-million plus — figures that have been reported by the Associated Press and the New York Times — Old Smokey might not ever see a collie on its sidelines.  But then again, the pay off would be as wide as a Texas tornado.

The Texas Swing: Will the SEC Say, "Yes?"

The atmosphere is a little unstable in Birmingham.  

Could this be the week the Aggies get their official invite into one of college sports' most dominant conferences?  Will there be a statement issued from SEC Commissioner Mike Slive's office by Friday?  

The Aggies are knocking like roofers after a storm but will the SEC buy their fancies?  

Probably so.  The conference is poised for growth and has been since it was founded in 1932 with 13 members of the Southern Conference (teams located west and south of the Appalachian Mountains). Although Sewanee (yes, Sewanee) pulled out in 1940, Georgia Tech departed in 1964, and Tulane left in 1966, the conference has done nothing but boost its power. In fact, they broke their own record in the 2009-2010 fiscal year with $209 million in revenue distributions to its members ... pocket change compared to its potential.

In 1991, the SEC expanded from 10 to 12 university members. That year changed the face of college athletics.  Not only did the division accept the South Carolina Gamecocks and the Arkansas Razorbacks to its league, it boldly established the two divisions and hosted the first division playoff game in college football the following year.  In 1992, SEC champion, the University of Alabama, won the conference's first national title and soon after, other conferences set up their own divisions with playoffs. 

If history repeats itself, the SEC will open the door for another team — the Texas A&M Aggies — disrupting the balance of their 6-6 East / West divisions. So don't look for one team, but two.  This is a book that's been written before and this time might be another game changer for college sports.