32 NFL Players Sure to Take a Step Back in 2011

It happens every year—NFL players, for whatever reason, simply get worse.

It happens to running backs as they approach 30. Quarterbacks seem to break down slowly over time, with a sudden drop-off in production from one year to the next. And cornerbacks and wide receivers wake up one day a step slower than they were the year before. It's unavoidable.

Which NFL players are destined for a drop-off in production this year? Whether it's due to injury, a lack of talent around them, age or simple attrition—these are the players we've earmarked for a down year.

Daryn Colledge, Arizona Cardinals

There is a myth in NFL circles that offensive guard Daryn Colledge is actually good. Again, this is a myth.

Colledge, ranked No. 43 overall by Pro Football Focus among NFL guards, has lived off of the success of his former team—the Green Bay Packers. When you actually watch Colledge play, he's not that impressive; especially when you watch him play without Chad Clifton to his side.

Colledge is expected to be a major signing for the Arizona Cardinals and is expected to help shore up an offensive line that has been woeful. Instead, Colledge will finally be exposed as the mediocre player he really is.

Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals

Over the last two seasons Cedric Benson has rushed for over 1,000 yards as the featured running back in the Cincinnati Bengals' backfield. He won't make it to a third straight year.

In the past, Benson has benefited from a passing game that was good enough to keep safeties from creeping into the box to slow him down. Benson is not a shifty runner—if you put defenders in the box he will try to run over them, not around them. Load up the box enough and he'll get shut down.

Without Carson Palmer, Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens forcing defenses to play the Bengals straight up, Benson will struggle to pick up yards.

Brandon Lloyd, Denver Broncos

The No. 1 wide receiver in the NFL last year, according to our friends at Pro Football Focus, was not Andre Johnson or Reggie Wayne. It was Brandon Lloyd.

Lloyd, who posted an impressive 18.8 yards per reception with 11 touchdowns, won't repeat as the NFL's best wide receiver in 2011.

Lloyd benefited in 2010 from being a relatively unknown talent on an offense that threw the ball around in an effort to come from behind. In fact, Denver ranked No. 7 overall in passing attempts last year.

That should change with John Fox installed as the head coach—along with a defense better equipped to hold up their end of the bargain this year. As Denver plays in more close games, expect more of a ball-control offense and less targets to Lloyd.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, New England Patriots

BenJarvus Green-Ellis was a surprise 1,000-yard rusher last year for the New England Patriots. During the 2011 season, he might be a backup.

Green-Ellis is a good all-around back, but rookie Stevan Ridley has been the best back in camp and preseason games thus far. Even if BJGE holds on to his job, Ridley will diminish his carries and touches as the two would, at worst, rotate.

Arian Foster, Houston Texans

A disclaimer: I love Arian Foster. He's one of the great young players in the NFL.

Having said that, I expect a let-down from Foster this year. Duplicating his 2010 season, in which he led the league in rushing, will be next to impossible if Houston plans to split carries between Foster, Ben Tate and Steve Slaton or Chris Ogbonnaya.

The Texans know that a healthy Foster will be needed for a playoff run. That means less carries for the rushing king during the regular season.

Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons

Michael Turner led all NFC running backs with 1,371 rushing yards in 2010. He did it on 334 carries. In 2011, the Atlanta Falcons must find a way to not only limit Turner's touches, but to get the best value from them.

Turner is at his best when he can get into a rhythm running the ball, but Atlanta plans to rely more on Jason Snelling and Jacquizz Rodgers to complement Turner as the team's featured back.

Expect a step back in production for Turner as the Falcons spread the ball around more.

Santana Moss, Washington Redskins

You could cite the Washington Redskins' plan to start John Beck at quarterback as one reason for the step back in Santana Moss' NFL career.

You could also point out that Moss turned 32 this year. And there's also the fact that the Redskins added wide receivers Jabar Gaffney, Donte' Stallworth and Leonard Hankerson this year.

Moss was the only legitimate wide receiver in Washington last year, and his production was more a representation of Mike Shanahan force-feeding the ball to him. As Washington's all-around talent improves, Moss will see less touches.

You can also expect Washington to run the ball much more this year—and to do it better.

Mike Williams and Sidney Rice, Seattle Seahawks

Sidney Rice and Mike Williams look like a formidable duo at wide receiver, at least on paper. When you add in the fact that the two have Tarvaris Jackson throwing to them, expectations have to be lowered. A lot.

Jackson might be the unquestioned starter at quarterback in Seattle, but it's not because of his play this preseason. Jackson has generally looked horrible in locating his receivers and delivering the ball on time.

A word to the wise: Don't expect any game-breaking statistics from either Williams or Rice.

Tim Tebow, Denver Broncos

During the 2010 season, Tim Tebow started three games for the Denver Broncos and sparked a cult-like following with perhaps unrealistic expectations for the 2011 season.

Now that the 2011 season is weeks away, it looks like Tebow will go from three starts in 2010 to zero in 2011. Tebow is currently third on the Denver depth chart, with some rumors even insisting he might really be the fourth-best quarterback on the team.

Expect at least 10 comments telling me why this is stupid, but Tebow will take a major step back this year.

Matt Hasselbeck, Tennessee Titans

Matt Hasselbeck traveled from Seattle, where he won a home playoff game last year with the Seahawks, to the Tennessee Titans this summer through free agency. Hasselbeck left Seattle on a high after the team upset the New Orleans Saints at home. In Tennessee, expectations should be low.

Hasselbeck will turn 36 this year. He's also learning an offensive system under Chris Palmer that is unlike anything he saw in Green Bay or Seattle during his previous 13 years in the NFL.

It's also worth pointing out that Tennessee is currently without their All-Pro running back Chris Johnson, and that the team lacks a threat outside of troubled star Kenny Britt at wide receiver.

Hasselbeck's age, lack of experience in the Titans' offense and lack of talent around him all point to a step back this year.

Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans

Chris Johnson wants a new contract, and until he gets one the Tennessee Titans won't be seeing him in camp or in games.

Johnson has made good on his promise to hold out for a new deal, and as the Week 1 opener gets closer and closer, it becomes more real that Johnson will likely miss game time.

In a best-case scenario, the Titans will sign Johnson to a new deal within the next two weeks. And if they do, Johnson will not only be weeks behind in terms of conditioning, but also in learning a new offense in Tennessee.

Shaun Phillips, San Diego Chargers

Shaun Phillips benefits from the talented players around him as much as any other outside linebacker in the NFL. If his teammates are drawing the offensive blockers' attention away from him, Phillips has a clean shot at the quarterback.

A few changes in San Diego will have a huge effect on Phillips' season.

The Chargers' former defensive coordinator, Ron Rivera, is now in Carolina as head coach of the Panthers. Rivera's insights as the team's linebackers coach and then-defensive coordinator helped Phillips during his best two seasons for the Chargers.

The Chargers also lost two inside linebackers, Brandon Siler and Kevin Burnett, which will affect the amount of attention interior lineman can pay to Phillips as he's coming off the edge.

And finally, there's a great chance that inexperienced defensive end Corey Liuget will be expected to occupy blockers for him. Luiget isn't a lock to start at left end, but should he wind up in the starting lineup, this is something to consider.

Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers

At 35 years old, Hines Ward hasn't shown many signs of slowing down yet. We should start to see hints that Ward's days are numbered this season.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have built up a wide receiver crew around Ward to ensure that if and when he falters, they'll be there to pick up his slack. As such, expect Ben Roethlisberger to look for Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders as much, if not more, than Ward this year.

Ward is still a deadly blocker and a great run-after-catch guy, but his days as a No. 1 wide receiver are over.

Santonio Holmes, New York Jets

Santonio Holmes was the leading receiver for the New York Jets during their 2010 season, and he will be again barring something catastrophic in 2011. But things will be different.

Holmes had the benefit of secondary receivers Braylon Edwards, Brad Smith and Jerricho Cotchery last season. The presence of these players kept defenses from double covering Holmes, and also opened up the running game for Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson.

With Edwards, Smith and Cotchery now playing elsewhere, Holmes' numbers will go down.

A good defense will now either put a safety in the box to force the Jets to trust Plaxico Burress opposite Holmes, of they will use bracket coverage to essentially take Holmes away as a target for Mark Sanchez. Either way, the passing game will see a huge let-down this fall for the Jets.

Shaun Rogers, New Orleans Saints

Was it really that long ago that Shaun Rogers was considered one of the best defensive tackles in the NFL?

Rogers last made the Pro Bowl after the 2008 season (which does seem like a long time ago), but he's been a long-time dominant force in the middle of the Cleveland Browns' defense. If he can stay healthy and get on the field, Rogers will play his 2011 season for the New Orleans Saints.

Rogers may begin the season backing up Aubrayo Franklin, and while it's likely the two will rotate, we can safely say the end is near for Rogers' brilliant NFL career.

DeAngelo Hall, Washington Redskins

DeAngelo Hall made the 2010 Pro Bowl on the strength of six interceptions (four of which came in one game courtesy of Jay Cutler_.

But if you ask the super smart guys at Pro Football Focus, Hall isn't even in the top 25 cornerbacks based on his Pro Bowl season of 2010. One great game was all it took for Hall to be considered one of the best at his position in the NFC. Sadly, the other 15 games from Hall in 2010 weren't that good.

Hall won't have the gift-wrapped interceptions from Jay Cutler to pad his stats this year.

Brandon Meriweather, New England Patriots

Brandon Meriweather has made the last two Pro Bowls, and I have no idea why or how he did it.

Meriweather wasn't even a starter in New England to begin the year last year, nor did he have jaw-dropping production, but he still made the Pro Bowl based on the team name he sports on the front of his jersey.

Meriweather should see a reduced role throughout the 2011 season if the Patriots can find someone to take over at strong safety. For whatever reason, Meriweather has never been a favorite of Bill Belichick.

Donovan McNabb, Minnesota Vikings

Donovan McNabb's numbers may be better this year thanks to a better offensive system and staff, but his actual abilities continue to decline.

McNabb is being thrown to the wolves behind a Minnesota Viking offensive line that has struggled to pass protect in the past, and is now without former left tackle Bryant McKinnie. The team also lost their best wide receiver in Sidney Rice.

McNabb is seen by many as the answer to the Vikings' problems, and a sure bet to get them back into playoff contention. While McNabb is an upgrade from Joe Webb or Tarvaris Jackson, playoff hopes are premature.

Tyson Jackson, Kansas City Chiefs

When rookie Allen Bailey takes a starting spot from Tyson Jackson later this season, remember you heard it here first.

Jackson, the former No. 3 overall draft pick, has struggled to find his way in two seasons with the Kansas City Chiefs. Early views of his play this preseason have done nothing to change my opinion of him as a 3-4 defensive end.

Jackson, simply, doesn't get it. He's too often slow off the ball, and when he does get a nice burst at the snap, he's too easy to control one-on-one.

The 2011 season will mark the year we can officially call Jackson a bust.

Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants

Ahmad Bradshaw may be one of my favorite running backs in the entire NFL, but his 2011 season will be a tough one.

The New York Giants offensive line is a mess this year, with losses of Rich Seubert and Shaun O'Hara reverberating across the entire roster and leaving a scar on the Giants O-line. Any hopes that David Baas can replace either one should be quickly forgotten, as Baas has already missed time this preseason with injury.

Bradshaw cannot do it all alone, and with the offensive line looking like a weakness in New York, his numbers will suffer.

Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers

We last saw Ryan Grant during the 2009 season when he led the Green Bay Packers with 1,253 yards rushing. Grant was lost for the 2010 season with an ankle injury, which opened the door for James Starks and also led to the Packers drafting running back Alex Green out of Hawaii in the third round.

Grant was rumored as early as yesterday morning as a potential roster cut for Green Bay, as the team is comfortable with Starks, Green and Dimitri Nance at the position.

Grant restructured his contract and is likely to stay, but the writing is on the wall that he's expendable.

Mario Williams, Houston Texans

Learning a new position is tough even for the best of players. Mario Williams will be proof of that in 2011 as he moves from defensive end to outside linebacker in the Houston Texans' 3-4 defense.

Williams will be a glorified defensive end in the defense, with few responsibilities outside of rushing the passer from a two-point stance. Williams may still generate 10 sacks, but how many plays will he allow for the offense by being out of position, or failing to set the edge on the left side of the defense?

Williams is a tremendous athlete, but he's also a one-dimensional player who will struggle in space.

Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders

Darren McFadden may be one of the most exciting young players in the NFL, but he's also due to let down in 2011.

There's nothing wrong with McFadden himself, but the Oakland Raider offense will not be the same unit we saw in 2010. Gone is Robert Gallery, a powerful lead blocker at guard, and his loss will be felt by McFadden and the rest of the line.

The Raiders also lost Zach Miller, a nice dual-purpose tight end who drew safeties away from McFadden and was an improving blocker on the edge.

Defenses will gang up on McFadden this season, stacking the box and limiting his chances.

Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers

It would be easy to point to Steve Smith's age (32) or the fact that he'll be playing with a rookie quarterback (Cam Newton) as reasons for his declining season in 2011. It's more likely a combination of the two.

Smith's numbers will most certainly see a decline with the addition of Newton—a great athlete but mediocre passer—as quarterback. The Panthers also have more threats for Newton to focus on in 2011—with Greg Olsen and Jeremy Shockey sure to steal catches from Smith.

Smith remains one of the toughest players in football, but his 2011 season just might be his worst.

Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts

It's as simple as this—no Peyton Manning means no passing threat in Indianapolis for the Colts.

Manning may or may not miss time this year, that remains to be seen, but it's a guarantee that there will be a rust factor if/when he returns. The players who will feel that rust the most are the receivers—notably Manning's No. 1 target Reggie Wayne.

Wayne has had a Hall of Fame career, largely in part thanks to Manning, but at almost 33 years of age he's due for a slow down.

Asante Samuel, Philadelphia Eagles

The addition of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Nnamdi Asomugha was met with cheers from the Philadelphia Eagles locker room. One player who maybe shouldn't have been cheering was cornerback Asante Samuel.

As the weaker of the Eagles' two starting cornerbacks, Samuel will be targeted more in 2011 than he has been since his rookie season in New England, with quarterbacks hoping to avoid the NFL's best cornerback. Quarterbacks in the NFL do not tempt Asomugha, who was thrown at just 29 times last year.

While the Eagles signed two new cornerbacks, they lost their best safety in Quintin Mikell and plan to start second-year players Kurt Coleman and Nate Allen at safety.

Samuel is a very good player, but expecting him to produce seven interceptions again this year without experienced players at safety is unlikely.

Eli Manning, New York Giants

How could things be worse for Eli Manning than his 25-interception season of 2010? The New York Giants may find out this year, as Manning loses two favorite targets in wide receiver Steve Smith and tight end Kevin Boss, and must operate behind an offensive line that will be constantly over-matched in the NFC East.

Manning's 2010 season was horrible, by all standards. You can blame the fact that his wide receivers dropped 41 passes (third in the league), but the two quarterbacks whose receivers dropped more passes—Peyton Manning and Tom Brady—threw just 17 and four interceptions, respectively.

Manning has long glided by on his name, and the fact that the New York Giants' defensive line won a Super Bowl after the 2007 season. At some point it will become evident that the younger Manning is nothing more than an average quarterback.

Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers

Frank Gore is undoubtedly one of the most talented running backs in the NFL. You can't talk about running backs for long without someone saying, "But if Frank Gore could stay healthy..."

And that's true—if Gore could stay healthy he could be something special. The trouble is, at 29 years old, he has not been healthy consistently. He's also asking for a new contract from the San Francisco 49ers, something that could have a lasting impact on his performance this season.

The 49ers have never had a legit passing game to help keep defenses off of Frank Gore, and that's the story again in 2011. Expect to see the box crowded on first, second and third down when Gore is in the backfield.

Ed Reed, Baltimore Ravens

Ed Reed will go down in history as one of the greatest safeties to ever play in the NFL. That much is unquestioned.

The issue with Reed is that over the last two seasons he has missed 10 games for the Baltimore Ravens. Combine that with his age—33 on opening day—and it's clear that a drop-off is already happening for Reed.

When he's in the game, few players can impact a football game like Reed. In just 10 starts last year he had eight interceptions and 16 passes defended. He's amazing, but he's also a liability until he can prove he's able to stay healthy for the full season.

I love Ed Reed, but I fear his best days are numbered.

Ray Lewis, Baltimore Ravens

Ray Lewis might be the best inside linebacker to ever play the game. You could easily include him among guys like Mike Singletary and Ray Nitschke as the best of the best.

He's also 36 years old and has seen his impact as a player decrease lately. Lewis still notches impressive tackle numbers, but when asked to get back in coverage, he's slower these days—making fewer plays on the ball and fewer hard hits over the middle.

Lewis will go down as one of the greats of our generation, but this might be his last season in the NFL.

Mark Sanchez, New York Jets

In his two years as a NFL quarterback, Mark Sanchez has made the playoffs twice. He's also been a game manager and largely mediocre quarterback on a team built to win games with tough defense and timely passes.

Sanchez isn't quite yet overrated—mostly because I believe everyone sees him for what he is—but his profile in the NFL is growing as the media becomes more infatuated with Rex Ryan's New York Jets. This will put enormous pressure on the franchise quarterback to prove he's more than an average passer.

Sanchez must prove he's worthy while also working to gain chemistry with new wide receiver Plaxico Burress, find an outlet for replacing three of his top four receivers from last year, and hoping new right tackle Wayne Hunter doesn't get him killed.

It's a lot to ask of a quarterback. The Jets may be very good in 2011, but Mark Sanchez will not be.

Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts

"[There are] little signs now that the deep sideline throws are not as accurate as they used to be, there's not the zip on the ball that there used to be. Maybe Father Time might be catching up with Peyton Manning a little bit ... Maybe there does come a time when the skills start to diminish a little bit."

- Ron Jaworski, October 29, 2010

Jaworski dropped that nugget into the laps of NFL fans last fall and was largely chastised for it. In retrospect, he was right. Manning's 2010 season would be his worst since his rookie year in 1998, with 17 interceptions to 33 touchdowns—though still amazing numbers for almost any quarterback.

But Manning isn't "just any" quarterback; or at least he's not supposed to be. There is almost a god-like quality to Manning. We expect him to play forever and never get worse, and it's insulting to Indianapolis Colts fans to suggest that No. 18 might be slowing down.

Manning is 35 years old and has had two surgeries over the last two offseasons. He has not discovered the fountain of youth, nor is he a robot—even if he looks and sounds like one. Manning is human—flesh and blood—and like the rest of us he will see a decline in his athletic ability. And it's happening right now, whether fans want to admit it or not.