Oklahoma Football: Any Upsets on the Sooners' 2011 Schedule?

A decade has passed since Bob Stoops and the Oklahoma Sooners last lifted the crystal football.

No one in or around the program saw that coming.

Prior to the 2003 season, the press box at Oklahoma Memorial Stadium was revamped. Just below the top level of windows, the words "NATIONAL CHAMPIONS" are bracketed by each of the seven years the Sooners have worn the crown.

To the left: 1950, 1955, 1956 and 1974.

To the right: 1975, 1985, 2000 and...a blank spot. 

Presumably, that vacancy was meant to be filled at the end of the upcoming season by a team that Sports Illustrated touted as "scary good." Or, at the very least, it would be filled the following season. After all, that 2004 squad returned all 11 starters on offense and added All-Everything freshman running back Adrian Peterson.

But, in both seasons—and again in 2008—Oklahoma fell short in the BCS National Championship game.

More telling in regard to the Sooners' plethora of near-misses in recent history is this startling statistic: OU has spent a total of 45 weeks ranked in the AP's Top Two since 2001.

Not telling enough? I'll take another shot.

Over the last decade (the same decade that resulted in exactly one National Championship) Oklahoma has scored more points in the AP poll than any other school in college football—and it's not close.

That tantalizing level of success has turned that unmarked portion of the press box into the proverbial elephant in the stadium, so-to-speak. And it's how the Sooners have seemingly squandered such rarefied heir that has their fans on high alert in places you might not expect.

"Big Game Bob" didn't coin his own nickname; he earned it. Despite Oklahoma's well-documented BCS slump from 2003-2008, Stoops has proven to be more than capable of managing the atmosphere surrounding big games—and thriving within it. The Sooners have run up a 28-11 regular season record versus ranked opponents since Stoops arrived in 1999. Two of those losses were stolen—Oregon in 2006, Texas Tech in 2005; three more came in the M.A.S.H. season of 2009.

By contrast, OU has lost 13 games to unranked teams during that same period of time. In five of those contests, the Sooners took the field ranked fourth (AP) or better.

Such predictable unpredictability has led to a mass illustration of Pavlovian reinforcement. The Oklahoma fanbase is to the dog, as a Fox Sports Net broadcast is to the dinner bell. Supporters of the crimson and creme are conditioned to fear those sleepy mid-November encounters with an unranked Texas Tech. 

So while Florida State, Texas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma State seem like obvious choices for "toughest game(s) of the year," the more relevant question to be asked is, are any of those matchups truly the scariest game of the year?

In an effort to identify exactly where that title belongs—and further your education along the way—here's an in-depth, week-by-week look at the possible road blocks standing between Tallahassee and New Orleans.

Sept. 3: Tulsa

Todd Graham received an inordinate amount of credit for the Golden Hurricane's success during 2007 and 2008.

Under offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, Tulsa was among college football's most prolific offenses. In 2007, the Hurricane led the nation in total yards per game, ranked third in scoring and became the first offense in NCAA history to produce a 5,000-yard passer, a 1,000-yard rusher and three 1,000-yard receivers in the same season. Malzahn took it to another level in 2008, leading Tulsa to nearly 8,000 total yards on the way to becoming the second-highest scoring offense in the history of major college football.

Meanwhile, Graham oversaw a defense that allowed more than 30 points on 15 separate occasions during the same period of time. In 2007, Tulsa won 10 games despite a defense that allowed 35.4 PPG. Malzahn left after 2008, and in 2009, the Golden Hurricane defense "only" allowed 27.3 PPG—yet TU slumped to a five-win season.

Good luck with that, Pittsburgh.

"But, wait," you say. "Last year Tulsa won 10 games again."

Yes, they did. And they've got a chance to earn first-year head coach Bill Blankenship some big-time brownie points with 10 more in 2011.

G.J. Kinne is the reason why. 

Given his current predicament at the quarterback position, Mack Brown must have refused to watch ESPN on Thursday nights last fall, fearing he'd stumble across Kinne and the Hurricane in one of those, "We'll play on any night of the week just to get on national television" games. No. 4 is a Big 12-caliber quarterback on a C-USA team. Relative to his competition, Kinne alone was enough to get Tulsa back to double-digit wins in his second year as the starter. 

He alone is also more than enough cause for concern in Sooner Nation. Not only could Kinne be the best quarterback the Sooners will face in the first month of the season, but he may be the best signal-caller they'll see until the latter portion of November.

Upset Alert Level: Low

Landry Jones tossed for 336 yards and a school-record six touchdowns the last time these teams met. It should be more of the same this time around. 

Sept. 17: At Florida State

The Seminoles are back in Top Five where they belong.

E.J. Manuel, like Landry Jones a season ago, is an experienced "first-year starter." The seasoned junior has managed a 4-2 record as the Noles' starting quarterback, and that doesn't include FSU's Chick-fil-A Bowl victory over South Carolina last season when Manuel relieved Christian Ponder in the second quarter. Manuel has NFL size and ability, and the potential to electrify on a weekly basis. 

The Noles return their top three tailbacks and add true freshman Devonta Freeman. Unlike the Sooners, however, Florida State's committee approach was not born of an embarrassment of riches.

In other words, Warrick Dunn isn't walking through that door. Perhaps Freeman proves me wrong, though. 

If the Seminoles do identify a complete playmaker in the backfield or stumble across a wide receiver who scares, well, anyone (sorry, Bert Reed), they could morph into a national title contender seemingly overnight; the FSU defense is responsible for their already-lofty perch near the top.

Florida State returns eight starters—including the entire secondary—from a unit that allowed only 12 points per contest during the regular-season stretch run and led the nation with 48 sacks in 2010.

Defensive end Brandon Jenkins had 13.5 of those, and the junior standout is back for more. He is joined by a full cupboard of defensive skill players, including junior cornerback Greg Reid. Reid developed into a shut-down corner by the end of last season. He and sophomore Xavier Rhodes give the Seminoles two quality cover men.

Top to bottom, Florida State could be the most talented team the Sooners will face.

Then again...

Upset Alert Level: Medium

Is it too obvious?

Since Josh Heupel returned to the coaching staff in 2006, the Sooners are 6-2 in regular-season games vs. Top 10 teams (losses include 16-13 vs. (3) Texas in 2009, 28-10 vs. (7) Texas in 2006)—which is just a fancier way of saying OU shows up for the big ones.

And is Florida State really that good?

They could end up being the most talented opposition for Oklahoma in 2011—but I'm not sold.

Manuel is a nice quarterback, so they have that going for them, but they don't have any skill players offensively who strike fear into the heart of a defensive coordinator. Florida State's backfield is average, and the receiving corps appears to be below average. 

The defense, while experienced, isn't necessarily dominant. The Seminoles allowed 44 points in a loss to Virginia Tech, 37 in a loss to North Carolina and 47 in a blowout loss to these Sooners in 2010.

Without a doubt, the wealth of experience will correlate with an overall improvement.

But how much of an improvement? 

I'm not saying the Noles aren't a good team—just that the Sooners will play several better teams. Florida State doesn't scare me—even in Tallahassee. 

Sept. 24: Missouri

As we grow nearer to kickoff, the Missouri bandwagon is getting full, but those sitting near the back needn't worry, "I'm (not) tryna' run behind it—I'm sorry."

The offensive line is nearly completely in tact, with four of five starters returning. The receiving corps, led by T.J. Moe, is loaded with experience as well. Throw in senior Michael Egnew,—arguably the nation's top tight end—and the Tigers have no shortage of difference-makers in the passing game.

In fact, experience is the central theme offensively, as Mizzou returns every player who caught a pass or recorded a rushing attempt a season ago.

About half of what was an impressive defense—by Missouri's standards—is back. The defensive line is as deep and talented as any other in the Big 12. Ends Jacquies Smith and Brad Madison combined for 13 sacks in 2010—tops among the conference's returning tandems. Zavier Gooden headlines a a deep group of linebackers as well.

The Sooners' reign as No. 1 lasted exactly one week in 2010, thanks to an upset loss to then-ninth-ranked Missouri. 

Odd as it may sound, that is a huge part of why the Tigers are unlikely to accomplish the same feat in 2011.

Upset Alert Level: Medium

If OU had maintained their complete and utter dominance over Missouri last season, an MU upset would be a legitimate possibility. But after what happened in Columbia last fall, the Tigers are sure to have the Sooners' full and undivided attention heading into their conference-opener.

That's not all.

Missouri is experienced everywhere—except the two spots where a team most needs to be experienced to beat Oklahoma: at quarterback and in the secondary.

James Franklin has the pedigree to become a successful college quarterback, but Norman is not the place where you want to have a sophomore quarterback making his second career road start.

Mizzou has a chance to win 10 games—although eight or nine seems far more likely; Oklahoma just won't be among them.

Oct. 1: Ball State

Sean Baker is a nice MAC-level strong safety. If things go well, he might even catch on with an NFL team next summer.

In other news, Ball State figures to be one of the worst teams in the FBS this season.

Upset Alert Level: Less than None

The Cardinals will afford the Oklahoma coaching staff an additional week to prepare for Texas.

Oct. 8: Texas

Fresh off their first losing season during Mack Brown's tenure, the Longhorns return only five starters on an offense that ranked 88th nationally in scoring—two of whom are embattled quarterback Garrett Gilbert and largely-ineffective running back Fozzy Whitaker. Brown voluntarily swapped four assistants, but Texas will be replacing a total of five after defensive coordinator Will Muschamp bolted for Gainesville.

It doesn't matter.

When Oklahoma and Texas meet in the Cotton Bowl, all bets are off. The Sooners were far superior to the Longhorns in 2010—and OU managed only an eight-point victory. Texas played for a National Championship in 2009, while Oklahoma stumbled to seven regular-season wins—UT won the 109th Red River Shootout by a touchdown.

And the Longhorns are not without top-shelf talent.

Incoming freshman Malcolm Brown looks to become this season's version of Marcus Lattimore. The power back from Cibolo (Texas) Steele High School rushed for 6,663 yards and 86 touchdowns over the course of his prep career. They'll need him to carry the workhorse load in Austin, effective immediately.

Defensively, the Longhorns return some key cogs from a unit that ranked sixth in total defense a season ago.

Jackson Jeffcoat and Alex Okafor should allow new defensive coordinator Manny Diaz to apply pressure without necessitating the blitz. Senior linebackers Emmanuel Acho and Keenan Robinson combined for more than 200 tackles last season, and Jordan Hicks returns from a spring foot injury to give Texas one of the nation's strongest linebacking corps. Blake Gideon is among the best safeties in college football.

Still, with a shaky quarterback and a young offense, there is going to be an extremely heavy burden placed upon the shoulders of this defense.

Upset Alert Level: High

The Sooners should dominate Texas.

They should exploit a remarkably inexperienced group of cornerbacks.

They should suffocate an offense that is being engineered by Chris Sims Jr.—er, I mean Garrett Gilbert—or a Green 'Horn.

They should.

Oct. 15: At Kansas

Kansas did one thing really well in 2010—make Mark Mangino look good.

The Jayhawks couldn't protect the quarterback or run the football; that doesn't leave many options for the play-caller.

The result was an offense that ranked 111th in scoring and averaged only 296.4 yards per game. 

The defense wasn't any better. The secondary features an abundance of speed, athleticism and physicality. But their strengths were nullified by the complete lack of a pass-rush.

I like Turner Gill. I still think he can win at KU—but not this year.

Upset Alert Level: Very Low

The Sooners can sleepwalk through this one and still win by 20 points.

Oct. 22: Texas Tech

Alas, the poster child for OU letdowns.

Junior Seth Doege is every bit the cookie-cutter quarterback we have come to expect from Texas Tech. He's faster than what we're used to, though, so his style of play figures to resemble Graham Harrell far more than it does either of his immediate predecessors.

Eric Stephens returns at running back, and joining him will be true freshman Ronnie Daniels. Daniels impressed during the spring and may also be used as the Red Raiders' Wildcat quarterback.

Former TCU safeties coach Chad Glasgow is the new defensive coordinator in Lubbock, and he has installed the Frogs' 4-2-5 defense. The change in philosophy, coupled with considerable experience in the secondary and on the defensive line, bodes well for much-needed improvement on that side of the ball.

The Sooners haven't defeated Texas Tech in Lubbock since 2003.

Upset Alert Level: Low

This game isn't in Lubbock, and the Red Raiders haven't won in Norman since 1996.

Oct. 29: At Kansas State

Because the Brown brothers—Bryce and Arthur—are still such unknown entities, the Wildcats' level of legitimacy is still yet to be determined.

But, if they live up to the billing that preceded them out of high school...

Well, then, Kansas State becomes a scary team—and this becomes a scary game.

Despite having never stepped on the field for K-State, Bryce Brown was voted to the Big 12's All-Conference preseason squad. The fine citizens of Manhattan are hoping that such seemingly blind faith is well-placed.

Brown will be joined in the backfield by 5'8" sophomore John Hubert. Hubert appeared sparingly a season ago, but he brings a great deal of elusiveness and big-play ability to the table. He will also be the Wildcats' kick returner.

Quarterback could be a bright spot for K-State, as well. When JUCO standout Justin Tuggle committed to the Wildcats, it seemed like a given that he would take the reins. But 6'5" junior Collin Klein had a huge offseason that included in a 358-yard, five-touchdown performance in the spring game. Klein maintained that quality of play in fall camp and will take the field as the starter to begin the season.

While Kansas State's offensive well-being centers around the success or failure of Bryce Brown, the same can be said for the defense and Arthur Brown. The 6'1", 223-lbs transfer from Miami (Fla.) will be counted on immediately. He had a game-high 14 tackles in the KSU spring game. 

Regardless of how well the Brown brothers perform, it remains unlikely the Wildcats will challenge for a Big 12 Championship.

K-State could absolutely assume the role of spoiler, though.

Upset Alert Level: Very High

Manhattan, Kan., is not a fun place for opposing teams to play, and it looks like Bill Snyder is slowly regaining the traction that was lost upon his initial retirement.

Strange as it may sound, losses at Miami (Fla.), Baylor and/or Missouri could actually help the Wildcats' cause in this one. If K-State enters this contest with a mark of 4-3, or even 5-2, they will likely be ranked outside of the Top 25.

The slate of games scheduled for Oct. 29 include Wisconsin vs. Ohio State, Baylor vs. Oklahoma State, Stanford vs. USC and Florida vs. Georgia. 

The point being, top-ranked Oklahoma vs. a 4-3 Kansas State might make the ABC early afternoon lineup.

But, more than likely, that game would be headed for—you guessed it—FSN. 

Awful play-by-play, worse color commentary, the same commercials during every media timeout and a disinterested group of Sooners—that is a recipe for disaster.

Nov. 5: Texas A&M

The Aggies have been the recipients of high praise this summer, and for good reason.

The offense is loaded, and second-year defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter made huge strides in returning A&M to a "Wrecking Crew"-level of respectability a season ago.

Ryan Tannehill, Cyrus Gray, Jeff Fuller, Ryan Swope, Uzoma Nwachukwu, Nehemiah Hicks—that is the list of All-Big 12-caliber skill players who return for the Aggies in 2011.

After dropping three-straight games toward the middle of the season, head coach Mike Sherman pulled the plug on Jerrod Johnson and Christine Michael, inserting Tannehill and Gray into the lineup. The move altered the course of the Aggies' season.

It may have also changed the direction of the program.

Gray eclipsed 100 yards in every remaining game. All Tannehill did was break the school's single-game passing record in his first start. Six consecutive wins later, A&M was ranked inside of the Top 25 and heading for the Cotton Bowl.

The Aggie defense ranked 114th and 109th in total defense during 2008 and 2009, respectively. In one season, DeRuyter guided them 50 places up the ladder to 55th.

That unit returns everyone not named Von Miller and Michael Hodges. While the loss of Miller and Hodges won't be easy to overcome, players like cornerback Coryell Judie and linebacker Garrick Williams figure to adequately oversee a continued push toward overall improvement.

Now, the question is, can Texas A&M take the next step?

Upset Alert Level: Medium

The early portion of Texas A&M's schedule is equal parts tricky and arduous, with games versus SMU, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Texas Tech, Baylor and Missouri preceding their matchup with the Sooners.

Unlike K-State, limping into their showdown with OU will not aid the Aggies in any way.

The reason for that being a logistical one: Oklahoma doesn't lose at home.

In order for A&M to have a shot, they'll need to come in hot, riding a wave of confidence. Without it, they won't make it to halftime. 

And, anyway, Texas A&M is about to screw up multiple conferences as a result of their grossly-oversized inferiority complex with the University of Texas. So here's hoping the Sooners are able to channel their inner-2003.

Nov. 19: At Baylor

For all of the preseason adulation being showered upon what is perceived to be the upper echelon of the Big 12, the Baylor Bears have been largely ignored.

BU broke through in 2010 with a 7-6 mark. They'll be better than that in 2011—potentially a lot better.

The Bears' offensive line returns completely intact. Center Phillip Blake is an All-Big 12 talent. The Baylor coaching staff thinks 6'5", 315-lbs sophomore left tackle Cyril Richardson has the potential to be elite.

BU returns five receivers who caught more than 40 passes in 2010. Headlining the group is record-setting senior Kendall Wright. Wright set school marks with 78 receptions for 952 yards last season. As a group, the Bears' wideouts are among the best in the Big 12.

The strength of the Baylor defense is along the defensive line. The Bears return every starter from a unit that excelled in 2010. Sophomore playmaker Tevin Elliott (6'3", 250 lbs) is the star of the group at defensive end.

Oh, and their quarterback isn't bad.

Junior Robert Griffin was nothing short of spectacular in his sophomore campaign, setting a school record with 3,501 passing yards and tossing 22 touchdowns at a 67 percent clip. The track star also produced in the ground game, racking up 635 rushing yards and eight scores.

Upset Alert Level: High

The Bears are as dangerous as Robert Griffin is elusive.

Under defensive coordinator Brent Venables, Oklahoma has a history of struggling some with dual-threat quarterbacks. Such was not the case in last year's meeting, when OU took control from the outset. The lopsided score forced Griffin into 33 pass attempts versus only 12 carries, and the Sooners were able to pin their ears back. 

Thanks to conference realignment, the Sooners must travel down to Waco for the second consecutive season. They'll need to assert their superiority from the opening kickoff, because the longer Griffin and the Bears stay close, the more they—and their 3,000 rabid fans—will start to believe.

Nov. 26: Iowa State

Relative to the norm, this is a deep Iowa State football team.

The backfield is talented, and Darius Reynolds is a nice-looking wide receiver. The defense has a pair of talented linebackers in Jake Knott and A.J. Klein. Leonard Johnson is a four-year stater at corner, with All-Big 12 ability.

I'll stop there, though, because they're not touching the Sooners.

Upset Alert Level: Very Low

OU has outscored the Cyclones by an average of 33 points per game since Bob Stoops arrived. This meeting won't be any different.

Dec. 3: At Oklahoma State

With apologies to the Seminoles, Aggies and Longhorns, it is the Pokes—the Sooners' in-state little brother—that present the most difficult assignment of the season.

These aren't your grandfather's—or your father's, or even your older brother's—Oklahoma State Cowboys.

Robinson-to-Bryant didn't even make it a full year with the title of "Greatest OSU Aerial Combination Ever" before their lunch money was stolen by Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon.

Weeden (342-of-511, 4,277 yards, 34 touchdown passes) and his Biletnikoff Award-winning wideout (111 catches, 1,782 yards, 20 touchdown receptions) crushed a boatload of school records while leading one of the nation's most prolific offenses in 2010.

Never mind the fact that Weeden is old enough to be Blackmon's father.

Joining Blackmon, Oklahoma State returns seven of their top eight pass-catchers from a season ago, including senior Josh Cooper.

While the only significant loss offensively was running back Kendall Hunter, his departure opens the door for sophomore Joseph Randle,—whom many believe will be an even better back—along with Jeremy Smith and high school All-American Herschel Sims.

Making things even a little easier is the fact that all five starters along the offensive line are back in Stillwater.

Defense has oft been the Achilles' heel at Oklahoma State, and the same can be said in 2011.

Still, the Cowboys have plenty of talent on that side of the ball, as well.

OSU loses linebacker Orie Lemon, cornerback Andrew McGee and end Ugo Chinasa. But the returners are good ones.

The secondary should be strong with senior Markelle Martin, juniors Johnny Thomas and cornerback Brodrick Brown back. Linebacker is a pressure point, though, with only sophomore Shaun Lewis—last year's Big 12 Co-Defensive Freshman of the Year—back in the starting lineup. Senior James Thomas, as well as sophomores Caleb Lavey and LeRon Furr, must plug big holes for the Cowboys at the position.

But defensive line—especially versus the Sooners—is the key.

Seniors Richetti Jones and Jamie Blatnick are back on the ends, and both will need to become difference-makers off the edge.

The middle is critical. No one emerged from spring practice, and someone needs to. Junior Nigel Nicholas is the only tackle with game experience, and redshirt freshman Christian Littlehead (6'3", 332 lbs) has the size to make a positive impact immediately.

Upset Alert Level: Very High

If things go according to plan, this one will be for the Big 12 Championship and a spot in the BCS National Championship game.

Never have the Bedlam stakes been so high.

As a result of a scheduling quirk, OU must travel up I-35 to Stillwater for the second year in a row. That could prove to be an issue.

Since 2003, the Sooners have dominated the Pokes in Norman—winning by an average margin of 42.5-10.

But when the teams have met in Stillwater, the games have turned into back-and-forth shootouts with an average margin of 43.3-34.5—and none of those Oklahoma State teams were as talented as this one.

There is no margin for error.