Fantasy Fallout: Cliff Lee Wins A.L. Cy Young, Is He the Real Deal?

Cliff Lee took home the American League Cy Young Award today, and what a story it has been. Lee, who spent time in Triple-A at the end of last season, had a terrific rebound season to take home the MLB's most coveted pitching award.  

He received 24 out of 28 first place votes, so there seemed to be little debate on his dominance in the American League.

What's even more incredible is the fact that the Indians have had two left-handed starting pitchers win the award in two consecutive years. CC Sabathia, now one of the league's most coveted free agents, capped a terrific year in 2007 to take home the Cy Young award himself.

Cliff Lee put up some amazing numbers in 2008, amassing a 22-3 win-loss record with a 2.54 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He struck out 170 batters while limiting his walk total (34).  Opposing batters hit a mere .254 against him.  

So what does this mean for his fantasy value in 2008?  Admittedly, Cliff Lee is one of the toughest players to project for next season. He posted an incredible 5.0 K/BB ratio in 2008, with seven strikeouts-per-nine-innings and 1.5 walks-per-nine-innings. Those numbers were truly remarkable, but we can see that most of his success came from his incredible control abilities.

2005 was Cliff Lee's most successful season beside 2008, and he posted a 18-5 record with a 3.79 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP.  That year, Lee averaged 6.4 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 for a K/BB ratio of 2.8. As you can see, this is much lower than the ridiculous 5.0 K/BB ratio he posted this year.

In 2006 and 2007, Lee averaged 2.6 and 3.3 BB/9, which is scary. Not to mention, his K/9 numbers were much closer to 6 than 6.5. Simply put, there was no way to project that he was going to have this great of a season, as the 2005 numbers appeared way out of reach after two marginal years of many walks.

Lee could be a dangerous pick in next years fantasy baseball drafts, so leave him for another owner who wants the Cy Young winner on his team. There is no way that he can keep up the ridiculous statistical pace he posted this season, and he is bound to regress to the mean.

I would say that there is less than a 20 percent chance that he posts numbers anywhere remotely close to the numbers he did this season: His statistical history shows no kind of consistency. Be wary of selecting Cliff Lee in drafts next year.