Exam Time: 2 Questions Each Big Ten Legends Contender Needs to Answer in 2011

Perhaps no conference title race in the country is as wide open as the Big Ten, which will have all its teams gunning for the 2011 title.

 All the other major conference races seem to go just two or three deep. The SEC has Alabama and LSU, the Big 12 has Oklahoma and Texas A&M, the ACC has Virginia Tech and Florida State—you get the point.  

While there are certainly favorites—Nebraska and Wisconsin come to mind—and long shots (cough, Michigan), the Big Ten playing field seems to be much more even than it was under the dominance of Ohio State for the past couple seasons.

One could make an argument this year that nine of the twelve teams in the Big Ten have at least an outside chance at making it to Indianapolis for the first-ever Conference Championship game.

Whether each team can navigate the eight game conference schedule is another question. And brings to the fore a number of questions concerning each side's viability to contend.

Today, let's look at the Legend division, where five of the six teams—sorry Minnesota—are vying for an invite to Indy. 

Michigan: Can Greg Mattison Save What Greg Robinson Hath Wrought?

It is no secret that Michigan was a dismal defensive unit last year. One look at the national rankings tells the whole story:

• 95th in rushing defense
• 103rd in pass efficiency defense
• 110th in total defense
• 108th in scoring defense
• 98th in sacks

Woof.

You don't win many games when you hemorrhage yards like like Charlie Sheen's remaining reserves of sanity. Despite having one of the best offenses in the country—with dual-threat QB Denard Robinson running and gunning the show—the Wolverines were only able to win seven games.

Gone, however, is the architect of the defensive regression of the last two years, Greg Robinson.

New defensive coordinator Greg Mattison must pick up the pieces, and he certainly has a track record of success on the defensive side of the ball, having led a slew of dominant defenses during his first stop at Michigan in the 90's, before moving to Notre Dame and Florida before spending a few years coaching in the NFL for the Baltimore Ravens.

The first step was installing a different defensive package: the 4-3. 

Last year saw the Wolverines run mostly 3-3-5 packages—a defense which coordinator Greg Robinson had no history coaching (which showed). The Wolverines rarely rushed more than three players, which accounts for the low sack totals, and preferred to stay back in soft zone coverage to help overcome extreme youth in the secondary (which didn't always work). Bad luck with injuries and above-average attrition—especially in the secondary—didn't help matters.

Mattison does have a couple advantages over Robinson.  

First, CB Troy Woolfolk is healthy after a freak ankle injury that sidelined him for all of 2010. Woolfolk should be Michigan's best defensive back in 2011.  

Adding to CB depth is true sophomore Courtney Avery, who did as good a job in 2010 as can be expected by an undersized freshman. Veteran CB JT Floyd, who is also back from injury, will help as well.

The defensive line returns everyone—including potential all-Big Ten tackle Mike Martin—and the unit as a whole looks much better-suited for a four-man front. Also, redshirt junior Kenny Demens' emergence last year should bode well for the MLB spot for the next two years.

Mattison has the players in place, the proven coaching ability, and a solid scheme, but the question remains:

How fast can he turn this defense from historically bad to average? In a loaded division, that question could come to define the Wolverines' season.

Michigan: Can Denard Robinson Adjust to MANBALL

It is no secret that Brady Hoke likes the pro-style offense.

 Listen to his press conferences long enough, and you might even find yourself wanting to drive-block your refrigerator out of the kitchen into the backyard.

He preaches toughness and physicality to an almost absurd level. If you ask Hoke what the best formation in football is, you better believe he is going to tell you it is the I-form.  It's three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust fever, man, and Brady has it bad.

That doesn't necessarily bode well for future, considering what the Wolverines did well in 2010—run the ball out of every possible formation but the I-form.  

Statistically, the Wolverines rushing attack was one of the best in the country, as well as leaps and bounds better than anything Michigan team had done in the past.

Most of that success came in the form of wunderkind Denard Robinson. The 5'11 sophomore (who gained even more notoriety for his unique shoe-lacing technique) quarterback put on a clinic early in the year, and despite a rash of injuries, finished the season with an incomprehensible 1,700 yards rushing and 2,500 yards passing.  

It took Heisman winner Cam Newton 14 games to match the kind of numbers Robinson produced in less than 12 (counting injury).  

Rodriguez's offense perfectly suited the speedster, and constantly left him with easy passes as safeties and linebackers were forced to stay home and guard against the QB keeper.

After Rich Rod came in after the 2007 season and completely revamped Michigan's Lloyd Carr-era pro-style sets with his high-flying spread offense (remember, that's why slow-footed Ryan Mallett transferred), it took years to recruit the right kinds of players to fit into the offense.

Now, Hoke looks to bring the Wolverines back to the pro-style, but he has Rich Rod-recruited players, brought in to run a spread set.

It'll take another couple of years to get the kind of players back who can run the pro-style effectively.

Throwing out the old formula, the Wolverines are now shifting to a different offense: one that utilizes more snaps under center, a more complex passing game, and less emphasis on the quarterback as a runner.

Coordinator Al Borges has overseen some very good offenses during his career, and even turned Cade McNown into an all-American and first round draft pick (Capable of performing miracles? Check.)

So keeping the Wolverine offense producing at a high level is not out of the question. However, he is going to have to do it with an offensive line predicated upon zone blocking, as well as backs and receivers mostly recruited for the spread-and-shred offense.  Not to mention a quarterback that some won't even label as such.

Fortunately for Borges, the Wolverines return three starters on the offensive line, all but one receiver, and every running back, so depth and experience shouldn't be a problem.

Add in Robinson under center—the first starting quarterback with a year of starting experience on his resume since Chad Henne—and backup Devin Gardner, and the pieces are in place for the Wolverines to put together a good offensive campaign.  

The trick is going to be mixing the right elements of 2010's offense with the types of plays that fill Brady Hoke's dreams.

The question is: just how fast do the Wolverines adjust to the new scheme, and how effective is it?

Northwestern: Can Persa Carry the Weight?

Contrary to popular belief, the 2010 Northwestern offense wasn't very good.  

Statistically, they were middle of the pack in total offense (48th) and scoring offense (63rd), and by advanced metrics they were even worse.  

This was not a unit that was going to run by or through you on the way to big numbers.  No, the Wildcats won by simply doing the little things that move the chains, and doing them effectively.

When robotic efficiency is the plan, it takes a skilled operator to execute it.  

Enter Dan Persa.

Need to get the ball to your receivers? Persa can do it, to the tune of a 159.04 passer efficiency rating, good for ninth in the country.

Need someone to rush for a crucial few yards? Persa can do it, with an average of 51 ypg and nine touchdowns on the season.  

So instrumental was Persa in the Wildcats' success that he accounted for over 75% of the team's total offense per game—putting up 310 of the team's 391 yards.

If you haven't noticed yet, Dan Persa is an integral component of head coach Pat Fitzgerald's project on the picturesque Evanston campus.

In the first ten games of the season Persa was not held under 200 yards passing once. The last three games in which Persa was injured, his replacement Evan Watkins never passed for more than 150 yards.

2011 kicks off with a healthy Persa ready to retake the reins of the Northwestern ruthless-and-boring-efficiency-machine once again.  

His Heisman campaign is already setting up cheesy puns for sportswriters everywhere.

The question is: can Persa continue to defy the odds and will the pedestrian Northwestern offense to victory, and if he isn't healthy, can someone else step in to do the job?

Northwestern: Can the Front Seven Stop Anyone?

While Northwestern was merely average in defending against the pass (61st in pass eff.) and in tackles for loss (55th), one thing the defense couldn't do was stop anyone from running, ever.

The 2010 Wildcats were kittens when it came to defending the run, giving up an average of 185 yards per game (good for 92nd in the country). If that isn't bad enough, have a look at some single game totals:

- vs. Vanderbilt: 192 yards, 2 TDs

- vs. Purdue: 232 yards, 2 TDs

- vs. Illinois: 519 yards, 5 TDs

- Let me repeat that Five-hundred and nineteen yards. Five. One. Nine.  Over halfway to one thousand.

- vs. Wisconsin: 329 yards, 5 TDs

Illinois could have stopped running the ball at halftime and still have bested Northwestern's per game average with relative ease.  This is a bad sign when faced with four in-conference opponents that can and will run the ball right at you.  

The Wildcats' return almost everyone on defense outside of DT Corbin Bryant, but when you are that bad at rush defense the question is obvious: is bringing starters back a good thing?

The back seven looks to be solid, but if the Wildcats want to compete for a conference title, they have to answer this one question: is this the year that Northwestern learns to defend the run?

Iowa: Who Will Be Iowa's Next Great Patriot/Quarterback?

Ricky Stanzi loves America, and he thinks you should too.

Unfortunately for Iowa, he is now loving America from the Kansas City Chief's locker room, and the Hawkeyes have to find a replacement under center.

This won't be an easy task. Ricky Stanzi was always something of an enigma while playing at Iowa.

He spent 2009 serving up a whole pu-pu platter of "Rick-Sixes" while leading the Hawkeyes to 11 wins and a BCS bowl.  Part of that came from the fact that while Stanzi had a definite INT problem as a JR, he almost became a different quarterback in the 4th quarter—coming alive just in time to will the Hawkeyes to another victory.

2010 saw much of the same from Stanzi, who continued to play very good football (12th nationally in pass eff., 25/6 TD/INT ratio), but the rest of the team failed to recreate the magic of 2009 en route to a disappointing 8-5 record (more on that in a moment).

Now the onus is on Stanzi's understudy, James Vandenberg, to take over the reigns on offense. Vandenberg does have some experience after filling in for Stanzi at the end of the 2009 season, but his career numbers are pedestrian at best: 47-for-95, 513 yards 3/5 TD/INT.

This year the Iowa offense could be forced to make do without two tailbacks (Jewel Hampton and Adam Robinson), and will be missing all-time leading receiver and recreational-drug enthusiast Derrell Johnson-Koulianos. Sophomore running back Marcus Coker and JR receiver Marvin McNutt are back, but it will be Vandenberg's job to get them the ball.

So if Iowa hopes to jump back in the Big Ten title race then James Vandenberg has to answer just one question: can you fill Ricky Stanzi's red, while, and blue shoes?    

Iowa: Can the Defense Close out Games?

If you look at where Iowa's season went wrong in 2010 you will notice something that you don't normally associate with the old-school, fundamentally sound defense that head coach Kurt Ferentz and defensive coordinator Norm Parker usually field: defensive breakdowns in the 4th quarter.

Iowa, despite being a top-30 defense nationally, couldn't stop anybody in the 4th quarter.  

When all five of your losses come by seven points or less, this tends to be a problem. Take for instance the game against Northwestern.

Iowa allowed 14 points in the final quarter while scoring none of its own to squander a ten point lead. Against Ohio State, Iowa gave up 10 points in the fourth quarter, including a backbreaking 4th-and-10 conversion by Terrelle Pryor on the Buckeyes' game winning drive. The Hawkeyes even lost a fourth quarter lead to Minnesota (Minnesota!).

The surprising thing isn't just how good Iowa's defense was in the first three quarters, but how good it had been in 2009. Most of the contributors from that 2009 defense (which was top 10 in total, scoring, and pass eff. defense) returned for the 2010 season, including a plethora of defensive line talent in Adrian Clayborn and Karl Klug as well as safety Tyler Sash.

So why the letdown? It must have kept Coach Ferentz up at nights.

If Iowa wants to fix its defense problem, it will have to do so without the help of most of the 2010 contributors.  

Clayborn, Klug, and Sash are all playing on Sundays, as is defensive lineman Christian Ballard.  Safety Brett Greenwood is also gone as well as three linebackers: Jeramiha Hunter, Troy Johnson, and Jeff Tarpinian.  There is still talent left (S Micah Hyde, DT Mike Daniels, CB Shaun Prater), but this will be the year that Iowa must prove it can reload on defense without any drop off.

Iowa will have twelve games in which to answer this question: can the 2011 defense put together four solid quarters?

Michigan State: Can the Spartans Find a Pass Rush?

(For the other question Michigan State needs to answer—can the Spartans put together a solid offensive line—refer to my column last week).

For all the success that Michigan State had on defense in 2010, there was one area that was vastly in need of improvement: getting to the quarterback.  

Michigan State was 90th in the country in sack rate (and somewhat unsurprisingly, 91st in TFL).

With a front seven already reeling from attrition (MSU lost the best LB in the history of the program, and another three-year starter and top-five all-time LB) the Spartans already have enough questions that need answering on defense.  

Luckily, the Spartans have some talent to work with. Jerel Worthy is one of them.

The junior DT is a proven performer, and could very easily be a top ten pick in the NFL draft next spring. He is already building on a solid 2010 season that saw him rack up four sacks from the DT spot.

Returning alongside him in the trenches is Tyler Hoover, who recorded three sacks a year ago as a sophomore. Hoover has the talent to be a breakout performer on this year's defense.  

Junior NT Anthony Rashad White also has the size and talent to be a breakout performer for the defense.

However, there is no player with a greater upside than sophomore William Gholston.

At 6'7", 280 lbs, Gholston has the size and athleticism to be a force on the defensive line after wasting time at linebacker last year (a position he was never fit to play). However, Gholston is all fur coat and no trousers until he delivers on his recruiting hype on the field.

While he should at least be a solid contributor this year, his true breakout season may be on hold until 2012.

Michigan State has the talent and potential on the defensive line to make the jump from a bad to a good pass rushing team, but until they put up the numbers the question remains: can the Spartans get to the quarterback?

Nebraska: What Offense Shows Up?

(For the other quesiton Nebraska must answer—is there enough depth at quarterback—refer to my column from last week.)

A theme so far in this slideshow has been one offensive question, one defensive question.  Leave it to the new kids to break that up.  

Of all the teams in the Big Ten, there isn't one that has as solid a defense as the newly arrived Huskers. Bo Pelini has built a staunch unit worthy of the heralded Blackshirt moniker.

However, the other side of the ball isn't nearly as settled. While much of the questions surrounding the offense stems from returning starting QB Martinez staying healthy and his back ups filling in when he isn't, Nebraska is still breaking in a new offense thanks to promoted offensive coordinator Tim Beck, who promises a simplified, aggressive play-calling scheme.

Change certainly seemed in order after the end of 2010.  

The Husker offense that began the season in dominating fashion had turned into nearly as sad sack of a unit as it had been in 2009.  Part of this was due to the injury to Taylor Martinez, specifically the fact that once he was slowed down teams could stack their defense against the rest of the Huskers' running game.

Martinez didn't do much to keep defenses honest.  He only eclipsed 200 yards passing once in 2010 (throwing --- oddly enough --- for 323 yards against Oklahoma State), and struggled to find the end zone more than opposing defenders (10/7 TD/INT).  That is why, according to Bill Connelly, the Nebraska offense went from stellar to stinker:

"

Nebraska Offense, First Five Games: 40.1 Adj. PPG
Nebraska Offense, Next Four Games: 32.1 Adj. PPG
Nebraska Offense, Last Five Games: 17.4 Adj. PPG

"

While bringing a new offensive coordinator on board is a good sign for the Nebraska offensive attack that has floundered the past two years, the players still have to execute.

That shouldn't be a problem for running backs Roy Helu Jr. (1, 245 yards, 6.6 ypc) and Rex Burkhead (951 yards, 5.5 ypc), both of whom had very good seasons in 2010.  

Wide receiver Brandon Kinnie (494 yards, 5 TDs) is back, along with TE Kyler Reed (395 yards, 8 TDs). Also joining the mix is true freshman Jamal Turner who has been making a name for himself, both good and bad.  The tools are there, now Beck has to find a way to get Martinez to use them.

In the end none of it will matter unless the Huskers can answer this one question: can the offense find a way to be productive in the new scheme?