Bold Prediction for Each Toronto Raptors Player
For many NBA teams, it's not a matter of predicting how good their players will be; rather, we're often found reminiscing over how good players were before. The Raptors are one of the few teams which have thrown together such a young roster, with their oldest active player being the 29-year-old Jose Calderon.
For Raptors players, it seems that every player, veteran or not, still hasn't shown us the true potential that they're still capable of fulfilling. While it might just be the "Raptor hopeful" mentality in all of us, it's safe to say the best days are ahead of most of Toronto's roster.
In this slideshow, I'm taking bold to a whole new level by predicting the stats of each Raptor player in their "peak" season in the NBA. Beware, though, trying to accurately guess something as random as future-statistics is crazy because it's nearly impossible to determine the things we'll need to know to do such a thing.
I will try to explain the numbers which I throw on here, but the main goal isn't to hit the bulls-eye every time; it's to give an idea of what I think these guys are capable of.
Jose Calderon
1 of 12Points: 13 points per game
Assists: 10 assists
Three-point field goal percentage: 45 percent
Jose Calderon can't get a break. First it was T.J Ford, then it was Jarrett Jack, now it's Jerryd Bayless. Calderon can definitely average a double-double if he's truly given the keys to the Raptors offense, but whether he'll ever get that opportunity or not will gravitate around his defense.
Calderon was handed a large and lengthy contract in '08 after proving he was one of the better point guards in the league despite coming off the bench. He averaged 13 points and over nine assists as a starter the year before, and was expected to continue improving with T.J Ford out of the picture.
What happened instead was the Raptors were very underwhelming, and coach Sam Mitchell was fired and replaced by Jay Triano in early December. Up until that point, Calderon was averaging a very solid 13 points and 10 assists. Calderon ended that season in good shape statistically (12.8 points, nine assists per game), but looking back, it's apparent the coaching change made in '08 could have been the reason why Calderon has never lived up to his expectations.
Sam Mitchell was the type of coach that was more of a motivator and leader in the locker room. Though he wasn't a fan of playing his rookies/new comers, one could argue the personal relationship between Mitchell and Calderon played a huge role in Jose's development as a player. Once Mitchell was gone, though, Triano's system had guaranteed Jose would be exploited on a nightly basis, and fans saw his confidence slowly digress from there on. Calderon was labelled as "too-unselfish" by some, and looked like more of a back-up PG after that season.
With Dwane Casey at the helm, the Raptors have an enforcer who will value hard working players. One could argue Calderon is the hardest working Raptor. Calderon's lack of lateral mobility could also be (to some extent) veiled by Casey's defensive schemes, which will allow Jose to do what he does best without worrying about his role or playing time.
Since Bayless is expected to be much better next season, it could cause another point guard controversy. In order for Jose to really peak next year, Jerryd Bayless would have to remain a role player. Since Jose seems like a better fit as a passing PG on a team with many offensive options, I wouldn't be shocked if Jose proves he's worth his pay next year.
Jerryd Bayless
2 of 12Points: 18 points per game
Assists: 6.5 assists
Three-point field goal percentage: 45 percent
Jerryd Bayless is a key young prospect for the Raptors. Bayless is only 22 years of age, and his best days are definitely ahead of him. How Jose Calderon fits with the Raptors moving forward will play a huge role on how Bayless is utilized, and Jerryd has the tools to be just as good as anyone else on the Roster.
Bayless plays defense and can shoot, score and even pass. He's a great all-around player who's only lacking in the minutes per game department. Some feel Jose Calderon could be a better fit for the Raptors offense since we've already got great offensive options at every position, and a facilitator would maximize the production. While that may be true, it's just as likely Dwane Casey favors Bayless' defensive grit and hustle giving him the starting point guard role.
If Calderon is traded or proves to be better suited for the bench, Bayless can easily average 15-19 points per game. I personally believe Bayless' assist averages looked small mainly due to his playing time. Per 36 minutes last season, Bayless averaged 6.3 assists per game, which isn't that bad, especially since he scored 16 points per-36 as well.
It might require a little luck, but I think averages of 18 points and 6.5 assists per game is definitely achievable by Jerryd Bayless, whether it be next season or after that.
James Johnson
3 of 12Points: 13.5 points per game
Rebounds: 6.5 rebounds
Blocks: 1.5 blocks
Steals: 1.5 steals
James Johnson has the potential to be one of the better defensive stoppers in the league. He's big and athletic, and Johnson plays with a lot of hustle on both ends of the floor.
While Johnson will never become a star offensively, he's the type of player who will do the little things which helps teams win games. At 6'9" and around 250 pounds (that number is still dropping), Johnson could definitely be a poor man's Josh Smith as early as next year.
Personally, I think Johnson will improve for next season, but will reach his peak in two to three years from now. It's not guaranteed Johnson start next season, but if he does, these expectations could be very reasonable.
Amir Johnson
4 of 12Points: 16 points per game
Rebounds: 10 rebounds
Field Goal Percentage: 55 percent
Amir Johnson is more than capable of scoring 15-plus PPG while grabbing 10 boards in the process. Johnson is in a very crowded front-court which features Ed Davis, Andrea Bargnani, Joey Dorsey and Reggie Evans, so we haven't seen him average those kinds of numbers, but when he was given the opportunities, Johnson impressed us every time.
This prediction is very Bold because if Johnson is to ever achieve this goal, it will require Toronto to trade one (or two) of its big-men.
If Amir is healthy enough next year or the year after, I'm sure he'll enjoy his best season within that time frame (whether he's with the Raptors or not). I kind of wish Amir would be traded because he deserves more opportunity, but at the same time, he's such a huge player for us it's hard imagining Toronto getting back equal value for Amir Johnson.
Leandro Barbosa
5 of 12Points: 18.5 points per game
Assists: Five assists
Three-point field goal percentage: 45 percent
Some might say suggesting Leandro Barbosa will do even better than his '06-'07 campaign is kind of crazy, but per 36 minutes Barbosa averaged 19 points per game last season despite dealing with nagging injuries all year. If Barbosa comes back healthy, he could have another stellar season in the next two years.
Barbosa is an expiring contract next year, and there's a chance that the Raptors move Barbosa so they could move forward with his pupil Jerryd Bayless. Whether LB eventually signs with another team or is traded, Barbosa can once again be viewed as the top sixth-man in the league.
As a big fan of Barbosa, I really hope he is traded on a good team which needs his impact. Barbosa to Minnesota for Beasley could really work for both teams and both players.
Linas Kleiza
6 of 12Points: 14.5 PPG
Rebounds: Six rebounds
Three-point field goal percentage: 41 percent
Linas Kleiza is a underrated pro. Kleiza had a terrific showing at the FIBA Worlds last summer, and his performances carried on throughout the preseason before his nagging injuries caught up with him.
Kleiza had his best statistical season in the league last season with the Raptors, where he averaged 11.2 PPG and 4.5 rebounds in only 26.5 minutes per game. The numbers predicted above are his same numbers, except adjusted to 34 minutes per game. In other words, Kleiza doesn't necessarily have to improve; rather, he just needs to stay healthy long enough to be the impact player we all wanted him to be.
In order for Kleiza to receive that sort of playing time when he's back next year, it would have to mean the James Johnson experiment would be scrapped which would make this a bittersweet scenario. If the Raptors somehow trade Kleiza, that will provide another opportunity for him to peak as a player. Personally, I'm not a fan of trading someone while their value is low, but regardless of who he's playing for, the 26-year-old Kleiza could definitely see his best statistical season in the NBA in the near future.
Ed Davis
7 of 12Points: 20 points per game
Rebounds: 11 rebounds
Field Goal percentage: 52 percent
Blocks: 2.2 blocks
Ed Davis is a star in the making, and he's shown us all signs that he'll be very good one day. Averaging eight points and seven boards as a rookie, Davis was the third best big-man in last year's draft behind none other than Greg Monroe and Demarcus Cousins. Davis only received 24.6 minutes per game last season, and Toronto's logjam at the four-spot just got worse, with Raptors general manager Bryan Colangelo making it clear Bragnani is not a center and should play as a power forward. After next season, the Raptors will also bring on Jonas Valanciunas, which doesn't make things any better.
Still, it's crazy to think management will move forward with the current roster without looking at trading some of their assets to better fit the teams needs. I think it's safe to say Davis isn't going to be traded at this point in his career unless the offer is too good to pass up on.
The Raptors currently are without a center, and Davis is 6'10" and 215 pounds. Davis needs to get a lot bigger, but he can play both the power forward and center positions and hold his own starting next season. If Davis sees close to 30 minutes per game, I wouldn't be surprised at all if he averages a double double for next season.
Davis is very crafty in the post, but his best asset is his defensive prowess. Since the Raptors were one of the worst defensive teams in the league, Davis, alongside James Johnson, could be the focal point of the teams defense for years to come.
In a perfect world with the right opportunities and without injuries, Davis can definitely be the next proto-type "20 and 10" power forward in the NBA. It might take four to five years until Davis reaches his prime, but 20 points, 11 boards and 2.2 blocks is something which I think is a fair prediction for Davis. To me, Ed Davis will be a less-skinny version of Chris Bosh but a little worse on offense, since the Raptors should be an offensively stacked team after next year, I'd love that outcome for Davis.
Soloman Alabi
8 of 12Points: Five points per game
Rebounds: Seven rebounds
Blocks: 1.4 blocks
Soloman Alabi is 23 years of age and has great size for an NBA center. Alabi was just a rookie next season, and in two to four years, he'll be much more accustomed to the NBA game. Alabi has a lot of work ahead of him needing to develop an offense and learn to play smart on defense without getting into foul trouble.
I beleive Alabi's progress will be done mainly off the court where he'll work in the gym and with coaches. I think the final product of Soloman Alabi can be a solid servicable center in a league with very few of them.
I doubt Alabi will ever see a starting role, but he can still prove to be invaluable to a team which is in need of a backup center. I don't see why a refined Alabi couldn't pull off seven boards and 1.4 blocks in around 25 minutes per game, and if he does that for a few seasons, he'll leave the league as a player with a respectable career.
Jonas Valanciunas
9 of 12Points: 21 points per game
Rebounds: 12 Rebounds
Field Goal Percentage: 51 percent
Blocks: 1.9 Blocks
Jonas Valanciunas has dominated in at every level of basketball so far, and the 19-year-old has a lot ahead of him. Raptors fans should have high hopes for Jonas, as the Raptors selected him fifth overall despite knowing he would not be available for the 2011-2012 season. Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo is on the hot-seat after only being given a two year extension, and the fact that he made such an unpopular selection only assures that our scouts truly felt Jonas was the best available talent and nothing less.
Valanciunas was the MVP of the FIBA U19 Tournament, posting averages of 23 points, 14 boards and 3.2 blocks while shooting 59 percent from the field and 81 percent from the line. This was a tournament which included highly ranked college players such as Jeremy Lamb and Patrick Young, amongst other notable international prospects.
Valanciunas needs to work on his offense and needs to get bigger, but he can definitely be a force in the NBA. Big-V compared himself to Bosh in his post-draft interview, and when he was asked why, he replied "I don't know…I have…not so strong body."
Personally, I think Jonas will be more of a defender than Bosh was ever seen as, but will be as great as some would like offensively.
I could see Jonas being a 20-10 big-man similar to what Chris Kaman was, except better on defense. My only concern for Jonas is him being more of a power forward than a center when he comes over because we'll have to play either Ed or Jonas out of position in that situation.
Suggesting Jonas will average 12 boards may be pushing it, but remember, this is for his best statistical season, so even though his career average might be closer to around nine or 10, he might average 11 or 12 boards in his peak season.
Overall, Jonas has the potential to be the next great Euro to play in the NBA, and I'm really hoping he lives up to his draft status. Make us proud, V.
Andrea Bargnani
10 of 12Points: 23 points per game
Rebounds: 7.4 Rebounds
Three-point FG: 48 percent
Blocks: 1.7 blocks
Andrea Bargnani is a good player, but nobody gives him any love. A week ago, I looked at Brook Lopez as a player and the hype that he gets, and it kind of struck me. Lopez and his six boards per game because of Chris Humphries wasn't that much better than Bargnani's five boards because of Reggie Evans. Both of their rebounding averages were hideous, but Lopez is still looked at like an all-star player while some look at Bargnani as a softer version of Raef LaFrentz.
The past was the past, and Bargnani is certainly improved every season in this league; I really expect him to improve even more going forward. Last year, we saw Bargnani's scoring averages increase to 21.5 PPG, which was good for second-best in the league for centers. Putting his scoring aside, I think the biggest improvement to Bargnani was his confidence and aggressiveness. Bargnani looked like a deer in headlights in his first few seasons, but now he's fearless on offense.
The coaching system in place for the Raptors magnified Bargnani's weaknesses as a help defender, and Bargnani's laziness on the boards really hurt his reputation as a rising big-man in the NBA. Since Bargnani has been getting more heat for his rebounding than any other criticism thrown his way in the past, he should make it a priority to improve his game in that area. With a new position and system in place, and some motivation, Bargnani could really rebound to his potential.
While he's not a natural glass-eater by any means, he is currently capable of pulling down at least six to seven rebounds per game solely due to his height and playing time. If he actually improves in that area, I don't see why he doesn't average over seven rebounds starting next season.
Andrea is 25 years of age and can still improve offensively. While I don't think he'll take a huge leap offensively next season, I'm willing to bet Bargnani could score 23 PPG in at least one season in his prime. He's also capable of blocking shots and shooting the three-ball very efficiently.
Toronto's logjam could hurt Bargnani's chances of reaching his peak next year, but I feel there's more than one team that Bargnani could achieve these numbers on.
Demar DeRozan
11 of 12Points: 23 points per game
Rebounds: Five rebounds
Field goal percentage: 48 percent
Blocks: 1.0 blocks
Demar DeRozan is oozing with potential. The 21-year-old out of USC took a huge leap forward last season, doubling his scoring average from his rookie season.
DeRozan can score at will using his athleticism alone, and is expected to be an all-star with a refined mid-range and long-range shot. DeRozan is a hard worker who loves the game of basketball, and he's being given the keys to the car starting next season, which should only motivate him to be even better.
DeRozan is somewhat predictable on offense as of right now, and defenders would sag off him and expect him to drive every time. With a three-point shot, defenders will be forced to stick to him and Bargnani, Bayless, Calderon and Barbosa. Toronto has the talent to spread the floor, which will only benefit a slasher like DD.
At this point, we're just waiting for DeRozan to perfect the "little things", so three to four years from now, a primed DeRozan can definitely put together an all-star season averaging over 23 points.
Conclusion
12 of 12The Raptors have a young and talented roster, and the sky is the limit for how good these players could become. Even if only half of these players really live up to their potential, Toronto will be a free agent or draft pick away from contending in the East.
I'd like to apologize for those who prefer hard-line evidence; most of these are just my guesses. Looking back at the slides now, I realize I've done a lot of wishful thinking, but anything can happen.
Thanks for reading. What do you think? Comment below and share your thoughts.









