AP Poll College Football 2011: Will Each Ranked Team Finish Higher or Lower?

Oklahoma fans may be stoked that the Sooners will begin 2011 on top of both major polls after the AP Top 25 was announced Saturday.

However, the Sooners may actually be cursed by it.

Take a quick look at history, and the odds Oklahoma will finish the season on top are slim.

USC is the only team in the past decade to start and finish the season at No. 1. That happened in 2004, and since then, the Trojans have had to vacate the title.

Last year's BCS Champion Auburn opened the season ranked No. 23, so a lot can happen between now and Jan. 9, 2012.

Keep reading to find out whether each ranked team will finish higher or lower at the end of the season.

25. USC

USC sort of gets overlooked now by No. 3 Oregon and No. 7 Stanford, but the Trojans still have some of the best talent in the Pac-12.

It's Lane Kiffin's second season, and USC should find a little more of a comfort zone.

USC has gone a little under the radar while being on NCAA probation, but quarterback Matt Barkley is back for his third season as a starter.

The defense was a major weakness last year, but Monte Kiffin should whip the unit into shape this season.

Predicted finish: No. 18

24. West Virginia

At least the Big East managed to get a team ranked in the AP Poll; however, that ranking is much too low.

The Mountaineers should be the cream of the Big East crop, and it's easy to see how West Virginia could go 11-1. The lone loss? LSU at home on September 24.

But the rest of the schedule is manageable, and at 11-1, WVU will be much higher in the rankings.

Even if it is a Big East team.

Predicted finish: No. 14

23. Auburn

It's only appropriate for the defending BCS Champs to begin the next season ranked.

However, Auburn must replace way too much talent to be a serious Top 25 team.

Maybe Gene Chizik performs a few miracles and Michael Dyer carries the Tigers this fall.

But the folks at Auburn will celebrate last year's success and wait for a return to relevance in 2012.

Predicted finish: Unranked

22. Florida

Florida is overhauling its entire offense, and John Brantley is still the quarterback.

The Gators finished 8-5 last season, and that's a best-case scenario this year.

If the Gators adjust to Charlie Weis' offense sooner rather than later, then maybe Florida could actually contend for the SEC East.

But another seven-win regular season is more realistic.

This will be just a short-term issue, though, as Will Muschamp will get the Gators back on track by 2012.

Predicted finish: Unranked

21. Missouri

It's easy to see why the voters like Missouri.

Gary Pinkel has brought in a lot of talent, especially at the skill positions.

But Missouri has tough road games with Arizona State (September 10), Oklahoma (September 24), Texas A&M (October 29) and Baylor (November 5). The Tigers probably won't lose all of them, but a 1-3 finish isn't unrealistic.

Add in potential losses to Oklahoma State and Texas, and you have a 7-5 Missouri team.

Not really a Top 25 program.

Predicted finish: Unranked

20. Mississippi State

If Mississippi State wasn't in the SEC West, the Bulldogs would like get a higher ranking.

But don't underestimate the Bulldogs, as they have experience at quarterback (Chris Relf), running back (Vick Ballard) and wide receiver (Chad Bumphis, Arceto Clark and Chris Smith). That's a perfect recipe for the offensive mastermind Dan Mullen.

Once MSU finds answers at linebacker, Mullen will enjoy at least another nine-win season, but possibly even something better.

Predicted finish: No. 17

19. Georgia

Georgia was wildly inconsistent last year, but for some reason, the pollsters think the Bulldogs are ready to return to the Top 25.

OK, maybe.

Aaron Murray is a special talent, and Mark Richt just might be fighting for his coaching life.

I'll go with Georgia finishing in the rankings, but a little lower than the preseason pick.

Predicted finish: No. 24

18. Ohio State

Ohio State has endured a lot of controversy since last year's Sugar Bowl, and with the loss of Terrelle Pryor, it's easy to expect the Buckeyes to have a drop off this season.

But Jim Tressel didn't leave the cupboard completely bare. Luke Fickell actually inherits a team with top-10 talent, while there could be some depth issues.

Right now, it looks like Joe Bauserman is going to start at quarterback over freshman Braxton Miller, but the youngster could see his reps increase as the year progresses.

The rumors of Ohio State's demise may be a bit premature.

Predicted finish: No. 16

17. Michigan State

Maybe it's the lasting image of Alabama pushing Michigan State all around the field during the Capital One Bowl, but the Spartans won't finish this high.

Leader Kirk Cousins is back, and so is Edwin Baker at running back, but the Spartans were the luckiest 11-win team in the nation.

This year, those close wins could easily turn into losses and the Spartans finish with eight or nine wins.

Predicted finish: No. 25

16. Notre Dame

Notre Dame is going to be much better in Brian Kelly's second season in South Bend.

But not quite as good as a lot of people are predicting.

The defense is improved, and Kelly's offense could have a break-out year.

Next year is when Notre Dame should be a serious contender.

Predicted finish: No. 19

15. Arkansas

Arkansas has the right parts on offense to be another scoring machine for Bobby Petrino, but the loss of running back Knile Davis for the season will make an impact.

Another reason the Razorbacks should have a good season is the defense is much better.

But Arkansas is playing in the toughest division in the nation in the SEC West. Add in a tough non-conference game with Texas A&M, and Arkansas could slip to eight wins.

Predicted finish: No. 20

14. TCU

Finishing one spot better than the preseason may not seem like much, but it's still an improvement.

TCU's swan song in the Mountain West should be another great year for the Horned Frogs.

The fact that TCU is in this position just shows what type of program Gary Patterson has built.

When you start to doubt TCU is just when the Horned Frogs strike.

If TCU can go to Boise and pull off a victory on the blue turf, this ranking could be much higher.

Predicted finish: No. 13

13. Virginia Tech

Take a look at Virginia Tech's schedule and try to find a game that the Hokies shouldn't win.

It's hard.

It's very likely the Hokies will finish the regular season 12-0, but then they will lose to Florida State in the ACC Championship Game.

First-year quarterback Logan Thomas is going to surprise a lot of people with how good he is and make Tech fans forget about Tyrod Taylor.

Predicted finish: No. 10

12. South Carolina

South Carolina enjoyed its best season since joining the SEC last year, and Steve Spurrier has been building the Gamecocks into a potential champion since he arrived.

The talent is in place, and the Gamecocks have the confidence to give the SEC East the overall conference championship.

South Carolina's defense is as good as any in the SEC and is led by cornerback Stephon Gilmore.

Go over to the offensive side, and you have Heisman-candidate Marcus Lattimore running the ball, and Alshon Jeffrey might be the best receiver in the league.

If quarterback Stephen Garcia doesn't implode, the Gamecocks might finish even higher than this prediction.

Predicted finish: No. 8

11. Wisconsin

Nebraska is getting a lot of preseason love in the Big Ten, but Wisconsin is still the team to beat in 2011.

With the addition of North Carolina State-transfer Russell Wilson, the Badgers' glaring hole at quarterback is filled.

Montee Ball and James White are arguably the best one-two punch at running back.

Coach Bret Bielema has found the winning formula for Wisconsin, and it should work well in the first year of the 12-team league.

Predicted finish: No. 9

10. Nebraska

Nebraska just may take the Big Ten by storm, but the offense isn't good enough to win the conference...today.

Quarterback Taylor Martinez's performance was clearly impacted by nagging injuries, so if he can stay healthy all season, the Cornhuskers may have what it takes.

But Nebraska was given one of the toughest conference schedules, and it's tough to get through the Big Ten with an average schedule.

Predicted finish: No. 15

9. Oklahoma State

The Cowboys are loaded again, and they feel they can do even better than last year's 11-2 campaign.

With Brandon Weeden throwing the ball to Justin Blackmon, it's easy to see how Oklahoma State is going to pile on the points again.

Mike Gundy's squad is always tough at Boone Pickens Stadium, and that's where the Cowboys play No. 1 Oklahoma in the regular-season finale.

If all goes well, there's the potential to have the Sooners and Cowboys in the top two spots of the poll in December. So a lot will be on the line in that game.

Oklahoma State will probably come up short again, but not on its goal to make a BCS Bowl.

Predicted finish: No. 6

8. Texas A&M

Texas A&M remains a very popular preseason pick after enjoying a resurgence last season.

With Ryan Tannehill back at quarterback and a punishing running game that is led by Cyrus Gray, it's easy to see why the expectations are high.

Of course, A&M also has one of the nation's best receiving corps, led by Jeff Fuller and Ryan Swope.

However, the Aggies face Oklahoma State (Sept. 24) and Arkansas (Oct. 1) early in the season, and both are potential losses.

It's still going to be a great season in College Station, but not a Top 10 season.

Predicted finish: No. 12

7. Stanford

With Andrew Luck and a number of very winnable games, Stanford is appropriately predicted to finish at No. 7.

Now there are a couple games on the schedule that could shift that ranking either way.

If the Cardinal avoid an upset at Arizona (September 17) and at USC (October 29), they should easily finish in the Top 10.

Now, if Andrew Luck can lead Stanford on a big win over Oregon (Nov. 12) and avoid slipping up against an improved Notre Dame (Nov. 26), the Cardinal could be in the BCS Championship mix.

Predicted finish: No. 7

6. Florida State

Maybe this prediction is a year early, but Jimbo Fisher and the Seminoles believe they can get back to the top this year.

E.J. Manuel may be a new starter at quarterback, but he's played enough the past couple of years that he could be an immediate star.

The biggest reason why Florida State is going to contend for a championship is because of the major improvements made under defensive coordinator Mark Stoops.

A Week 3 showdown with No. 1 Oklahoma will determine if FSU is legitimate.

Predicted finish: No. 2

5. Boise State

If this is really Boise State's last shot at playing for a BCS Championship (at least in the next few years), then the Broncos can't lose their focus at all.

The schedule is a little stronger than normal, so that helps Boise's cause. The biggest upgrade is a home game with TCU on Nov. 12.

Chris Petersen's team also opens the season with a huge challenge. This year, Boise is traveling to Atlanta to take on No. 19 Georgia.

Boise has the defense and overall talent to go 12-0 this year.

Unfortunately, the Broncos will come up short of playing for a BCS Championship.

Predicted finish: No. 3

4. LSU

LSU is another SEC team that has stockpiled talent by recruiting the best high school players around.

But the Tigers play one of the toughest, if not the toughest, schedules in the country.

That will eventually take its toll on LSU's chances of playing for a BCS Championship.

A return trip to the Cotton Bowl is the more realistic outcome.

Predicted finish: No. 11

3. Oregon

Oregon is going to have another outstanding season; it just won't be a top three finish.

The Ducks will lose at least one regular-season game (most likely in the opener against LSU), but could also trip up in one of its final three games—at Stanford (November 12), USC (November 19) or Oregon State (November 26).

But a third consecutive trip to a BCS Bowl is probably on agenda for 2011.

Predicted finish: No. 5

2. Alabama

Until someone beats the SEC in a BCS Championship game, then you have to go with the best from the conference to be on top.

Alabama was perfectly created in Nick Saban's laboratory to be that team in 2011.

It starts with one of the more aggressive and talented defenses in the nation. The starting unit reads like a who's who of All-Americans.

The offense isn't too shabby either. Of course, the knock on Alabama is the lack of an experienced quarterback, but A.J. McCarron will put those fears to rest early in the year.

Predicted finish: No. 1

1. Oklahoma

History just isn't on Oklahoma's side.

The Sooners have the talent and depth to pull it off, but they've already lost All-American linebacker Travis Lewis for the first few games of the season.

Oklahoma gets an early test against No. 6 Florida State on Sept. 17, but if all clicks for the Sooners, there is a good chance they could be undefeated when they face No. 9 Oklahoma State in the final game of the regular season.

Predicted finish: No. 4