Preseason College Football Rankings 2011: Predicting First Loss for Each Team

Now that the AP Top 25 poll has been released, it's a good opportunity to take a look at which teams have a shot to run the table and play for the BCS Championship.

With that being said, we all know there will be upsets along the way, so let's dive right into predicting the first loss of the season for each Top 25 team.

1. Oklahoma Sooners

The consensus No. 1 team in the nation has a high powered offense and a ton of returning talent. The Sooners won't run the table though.

While there is no debating that this team is loaded with talent, there is a debate on how often they show up.

Looking at this team closely, they struggle a bit on the road.

Quarterback Landry Jones may put up monster numbers at first glance. Looking more closely, Jones is only 4-5 on the road. In those games, Jones has thrown 17 touchdown passes, but has also thrown 15 interceptions.

Not a good sign for a team that has a tough road test early.

First Loss: at Florida St. September 17.

2. Alabama Crimson Tide

I like the Tide to play for the national championship and they have a better than average chance of running the table.

Their schedule isn't as tough as last season, and they get LSU and Arkansas at home. Tough road tests against Mississippi St. and Auburn could pose a problem, but if there is a team that can run the table in the SEC, this is this one.

A possible SEC Championship game against South Carolina could pose a problem for the Tide, but Nick Saban wins those type of games.

First Loss: Sometime during the 2012 season

3. Oregon Ducks

Oregon may indeed find themselves playing in the title game again, but they will have to do a lot of scoreboard watching and hope things fall in their favor.

The loss of five offensive lineman from a season ago could be felt right away as the high powered Oregon offense heads to SEC country.

First Loss: at LSU, September 3.

4. LSU Tigers

This team also has the talent to run the table and play for the BCS title. They have play makers on both sides of the ball and will have some big wins on their resume.

Non-conference wins against Oregon and West Virginia will look good and the Tigers will be playing in a BCS game, just not the one they wanted

First Loss: at Alabama, November 5

5. Boise St. Broncos

Kellen Moore is as outstanding a player as there is in the game. While it would be nice to see him get Boise St. a title to really shake things up, this won't be the season for the Broncos.

The change in conference to the MWC could have an impact on this team. Two in-conference games, TCU and Air Force, could pose problems. A non-conference game against Nevada could be troublesome as well.

However, the Broncos will already have their loss out of the way long before then. If they get past Georgia, running the table is a legitimate option.

First Loss: at Georgia, September 3.

6. Florida St. Seminoles

Looking over how things could possibly play out, it looks good for Florida St. A win against Oklahoma could wind up being their toughest test of the season.

Talk about a team that's loaded. Let's take a look at exactly what the Seminoles return from a season ago.

Four starting offensive lineman, their top two rushers, and five or six receivers could play major roles. New quarterback E.J. Manuel is stepping into a great situation.

That doesn't even include a defense who returns most of their play makers.

The conference schedule of Florida St. face doesn't include Virginia Tech. While anything can usually happen when they hook up with Miami, this team should be able to run the table in the ACC, but I think the Canes rally around the controversy and upset their rival.

First Loss: vs. Miami, November 12

7. Stanford Cardinal

Stanford is a team I would like to see play for a national championship, but that's something that is unlikely to happen.

While quarterback Andrew Luck is the front runner for the Heisman Trophy, he will have to put up numbers with a much thinner wide receiver core than he had a season ago.

Another factor could be the coaching change. David Shaw inherited a veteran team capable of winning, but he will be hearing about Jim Harbaugh all season long. He will need to prove early that this is his team now.

While Stanford will still be scary good, they likely will have a slight drop off from the 2010 season.

There is a good chance that the Cardinal stumble on the road at USC, but let's just say they go into the Oregon game undefeated.

First Loss: vs. Oregon, November 12.

8. Texas A&M Aggies

The Aggies have a nice balanced attack. Ryan Tannehill is a solid signal caller and the Aggies can pound the ball on the ground.

Mike Sherman's team also has one of the more underrated defenses in the nation. Make no mistake, the Aggies are another team that could be a sleeper to sneak into the BCS mix.

They have a tough non-conference tilt against Arkansas, but will slip up in Week 3 after not being tested in the first two weeks.

First Loss: vs Oklahoma St. September 24.

9. Oklahoma St. Cowboys

If there is one team currently in the rankings that I'm extremely torn on, it's Oklahoma St.

This team has the offensive firepower to head late into the season undefeated and could be a BCS sleeper.

Very few teams have two legitimate Heisman Trophy candidates as the Cowboys do in quarterback Brandon Weeden and wide receiver Justin Blackmon. Very few teams in the nation will be able to score with them.

However, the loss of former offensive coordinator Dana Holgersen will be felt, as will the loss of running back Kendall Hunter.

The Cowboys defense also isn't one of the better ones in the nation, so that should have an impact along the way.

Getting past a week four game at Texas A&M will be tough, as will back-to-back road games in October against Texas and Missouri. The Cowboys likely drop one of those conference games.

First Loss: at Missouri, October 22.

10. Nebraska Cornhuskers

The Huskers are talented and quickly can become a force in the Big Ten. They could, however, experience some up and downs right off the bat.

Nebraska should be strong defensively which should keep them in almost every game, but can quarterback Taylor Martinez deal with the weekly Big Ten grind?

The initial Big Ten schedule isn't an easy one.

First Loss: at Wisconsin, October 1.

11. Wisconsin Badgers

If everything falls into place for the Badgers, and I think it will, this team could be scary good.

Clearly they should be the class of the Big Ten and there isn't much standing in the way for them to finish the regular season unbeaten. Nebraska at home could pose a threat, as could back to back road games against Michigan St. and Ohio St. but they should be fine.

Everyone knows how well the Badgers can perform on the ground and their defense has the ability to be one of the best in the nation.

The key to this team could be how quick quarterback Russell Wilson fits into things. If he doesn't cost the Badgers games, they will be around in the end.

First Loss: vs. Alabama, BCS Championship Game.

12. South Carolina Gamecocks

If there is a team that the schedule favors, it's the Gamecocks.

The SEC East isn't really strong, and South Carolina avoids both Alabama and LSU during the regular season.

A trip to Georgia in week 2 could be tricky, as could a three game road trip in the middle of the season that features Mississippi St, Tennessee, and Arkansas.

Make no mistake about it though, this team is very good and can get by every team on their schedule.

First Loss: vs. Alabama, SEC Championship Game

13. Virginia Tech Hokies

I'm usually really high on the Hokies, but not this season.

There is no doubt they will be a very good team and will likely play for the ACC Championship, but it could be a more up and down season than most people think.

Frank Beamer's defense and special teams should be good as always and the Hokies will lean on them.

As for the offense, it could surprise, but replacing quarterback Tyrod Taylor could be difficult.

The good news for Virginia Tech fans though is that all of their tough conference games are at home.

First Loss: vs. Clemson, October 1.

14. TCU Horned Frogs

This will be TCU's last season in the MWC before joining the Big East in 2012.

The Horned Frogs may not be as good as last season, but should put together another big year.

The defense is great and they should be able to run the football on almost anyone.

If they survive a very tough week 2 game at Air Force, they will likely be undefeated late in the season when they face Boise St.

First Loss: at Boise St. November 12

15. Arkansas Razorbacks

Will the Razorbacks miss quarterback Ryan Mallet? Certainly, but maybe not that much.

Tyler Wilson should step in at quarterback and do a fine job. The Razorbacks likely won't rely on him as much as Mallet, so they may become a more well rounded offense.

The defense should be as good as last year, which was a pleasant surprise, but the schedule is very tough. Alabama, Texas A&M, and LSU are all on the road for Arkansas.

While they may be able to pull off a few upsets in-conference, they could take their lumps as well.

First Loss: at Alabama, September 24

16. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Speaking of teams that have a tendency not to show up all of the time, next up on the list is Notre Dame.

Many people across the nation are throwing the Irish into the title picture, but I'm not one of them.

They are young, but talented and will be better. They could be a season away from contending for anything.

The quarterback situation will play out fine, no matter who head coach Brian Kelly names the starter.

The only problem I see with this team is consistency from week to week. Until they can establish that, they will continue to lose games they shouldn't lose.

First Loss: at Pitt, September 24

17. Michigan St. Spartans

Michigan St. could be very good and could be the team to challenge Wisconsin for the Big Ten title.

The offense could be very good, but the defense needs to get much better.

The Spartans schedule is tough, but every game could be won. Though they have the tendency to not show up for big games. That trend likely continues in 2011.

First Loss: at Notre Dame, September 17

18. Ohio St. Buckeyes

It would be hard for the Buckeyes to not be distracted this year, considering all that happened during the offseason.

The Buckeyes won't take a nosedive to the bottom of the Big Ten standings, but could find themselves in the middle of the pack for a change.

Inexperience all around doesn't bode well for the Buckeyes, not to mention the early season suspensions.

They will be good, but nothing like we've seen the last decade.

A tough road test against Miami could get them in the loss column early as long as Jacory Harris doesn't give the game away.

First Loss: at Miami, September 17

19. Georgia Bulldogs

The Bulldogs are a team that some like and some don't. I'm not overly impressed with their talent at each position, but they have enough and could make some noise.

Mark Richt's squad needs to find their ground game once again. It's trending in the wrong way. They also need to cut down on the big plays defensively.

That's not a recipe for success for hosting Boise St. in the season opener.

Here's thinking Aaron Murray and company pull off the upset in that one, but it won't last.

First Loss: vs. South Carolina, September 10.

20. Mississippi St. Bulldogs

The Bulldogs are a program that slowly gets better every season. Coming off of a nine-win 2010 season, the Bulldogs should be on everyone's radar now.

However, while Mississippi St. should still be very competitive, it may be very difficult to repeat the success of last season's team. The Bulldogs may have lost more than any other ranked team. Replacing everyone, especially on the defensive side of the ball, might take some time.

First Loss: vs. LSU, September 15.

21 Missouri Tigers

The Tigers have a ton of talent. Quarterback James Franklin will be one player worth keeping an eye on, but they could experience some early bumps in the road.

The non-conference schedule is pretty tough. Opening with Miami (OH) isn't an easy chore and it doesn't get easier for the Tigers the following week.

First Loss: at Arizona St., September 9.

22. Florida Gators

First Tim Tebow, and now Urban Meyer, have exited the Florida program. Quarterback John Brantley replaced Tebow having mixed results in his first season as a starter.

How will Will Muschamp fare in his first season on the job?

Probably something similar, a lot of mixed results, but the Gators have a ton of young talent and Brantley should do well under Charlie Weis.

First Loss: vs. Alabama, October 1

23. Auburn Tigers

The defending champs won't be as good as last season, but should still be a very solid football team.

Auburn returns only six starters and then there was that Cam Newton guy that head coach Gene Chizik liked to lean on. He's gone too.

So it's a new look Auburn team, but don't mistake that for not being talented.

They will hang in there in the SEC, but won't pull out the wins against the top teams like they did a season ago.

First Loss: vs. Mississippi St. September 10.

24. West Virginia Mountaineers

While their are eight teams from the SEC currently ranked, West Virginia makes the only one from the Big East, and it's debatable weather the conference should even have one.

WVU should have a good year under first-year head coach Dana Holgersen. The schedule sets up favorably for them. The Mountaineers have a chance to run the table in the Big East and have only one test out of conference.

Unfortunately for them, their first loss is an easy one to pick.

First Loss: vs. LSU, September 24.

25. USC Trojans

USC is a team that could work their way up the Top 25 before it's all said and done. Quarterback Matt Barkley could have his best season yet as he has a wealth of speed on the outside at his disposal.

There could be some question on both lines, but USC is heading back in the right direction.

First Loss: vs. Utah, September 10