How the Pac-12 Will Shake out in Its 1st Year

2011 will be a big year for the new and improved Pac-12.

The conference will be welcoming the addition of two new schools—Utah and Colorado, and will likely have two other schools ranked in the top-10 in all of the preseason polls—Stanford and Oregon.

The Ducks are also coming off of a tough loss to Auburn in the 2010 NCAA Football National Championship, which drastically increased the exposure and respect of the conference.

If it wasn't for a questionable "rolled over the top of the tackler" call on the final drive of the game, Oregon might have actually beaten Auburn, who is from the high and mighty SEC.

The Pac-12 is now widely considered to be the second-best football conference in the nation behind the SEC and will certainly provide its fans with an exciting season in 2011.

Here are my predictions for how the Pac-12 will unfold in its first year as a 12-team conference.

2 Divisions: The North and the South

The Pac-12 has instituted two separate divisions within the conference in order to have a conference championship game between the two best teams in each division. The winner of that game will be crowned the champion of the Pac-12 conference and will be guaranteed at least a Rose Bowl berth come bowl time.

Here are how the two conferences lay out.

Northern Division	Southern Division
Oregon	Arizona
Oregon State	Arizona State
Washington	Colorado
Washington State	Utah
California	UCLA
Stanford	USC

6th in North Divison: Washington State (3-9)

Toughest Game: @ Oregon

Wins: Idaho State, UNLV, @ UCLA

Losses: @ San Diego State, @ Colorado, Stanford, Oregon State, @ Oregon, @ Cal, Arizona State, Utah, @ Washington

Nationally ranked at year's end? Nope.

Breakdown: Thank goodness for the out of conference schedule that Washington State put together, because their best chances for wins in 2011 will come outside of the Pac-12 play. Quarterback Jeff Tuel had a solid season last year and will be looking build on his success for the upcoming season. But other than Tuel, the Cougars lack the necessary playmakers at the skill positions to effectively compete next season. 

5th in the North Divison: Washington (5-7)

Toughest Game: @ Stanford

Wins: Eastern Washington, Hawaii, @ Utah, Colorado, Washington State

Losses: @ Nebraska, Cal, @ Stanford, Arizona, Oregon, @ USC, @ Oregon State

Nationally ranked at year's end? Nope.

Breakdown: There is no doubt that the departure of Jake Locker to the NFL will be a huge blow to the Washington Huskies. I mean, he was their entire offense after all. The loss of Mason Foster, their captain on defense, will also be a tough hole to fill. Sophomore Keith Price did an impressive job stepping in for the injured Jake Locker in 2010 and will likely snag the starting quarterback spot on the depth chart.

4th in North Division: Oregon State (6-6)

Toughest Game: @ Oregon

Wins: Sacramento State, UCLA, BYU, @ Washington State, @ Cal, Washington

Losses: @ Wisconsin, @ Arizona State, Arizona, @ Utah, Stanford, @ Oregon

Nationally ranked at years end? Nope.

Breakdown: Oregon State will finally get its revenge against BYU after the Cougars laid the beat down on the Beavers in the 2009 Las Vegas Bowl 44-20. However, the Beavers lost their leaders both on offense and defense in Jacquizz Rodgers and Stephen Paea. To help soften the losses, Ryan Katz, the Oregon State quarterback with a cannon of an arm, will have his favorite wide receiver back from injury, James Rodgers.

3rd in North Division: Cal (7-5)

Toughest Game: @ Stanford

Wins: Fresno, @ Colorado, Presbyterian, @ Washington, Utah, @ UCLA, Washington State

Losses: @ Oregon, USC, Oregon State, @ Stanford, @ Arizona State

Nationally Ranked at season's end? Nope.

Breakdown: Sorry, Bears fans, but you will have to wait at least another year to retain the axe. Cal will only be retuning 14 starters from the 2010 roster and have lost some key players on defense like Cameron Jordan, Darian Hagan and Chris Conte. Their 40th ranked defense in the nation is what made that team competitive, and especially at home where that was put on display by holding the high-powered Duck offense to only 15 points. Cal has also lost their running back Shane Vereen, who was the biggest playmaker on offense.

2nd in North Division: Stanford (11-1)

Toughest game: Oregon

Wins: San Jose State, @ Duke, @ Arizona, UCLA, Colorado, @ Washington State, Washington, @ USC, @ Oregon State, Cal, Notre Dame

Losses: Oregon

Nationally Ranked at year's end: Fifth in the Nation.

Breakdown: If you have a quarterback named Andrew Luck on your team, you have a chance to beat any team in the country. Already being considered the front-runner for the Heisman Award in 2011, many consider Andrew Luck to be the best player in college football. Stanford would likely run the table in the regular season and march into the National Championship game if it wasn't for the Oregon Ducks. Even though the scoreboard didn't indicate it, the matchup between Oregon and Stanford was a very close game in 2010. Stanford jumped out to an early 21-3 lead in Eugene, Oregon during the first quarter, but then the Ducks took flight and never looked back. In the 2011 rematch, Oregon's speed and athleticism will be too much for Stanford to handle, and Oregon will walk away victorious yet again in another close thriller. 

1st in North Division: Oregon (12-1)

Toughest Game: LSU

Wins: Nevada, Missouri State, @ Arizona, Cal, Arizona State, @ Colorado, Washington State, @ Washington, @ Stanford, USC, Oregon State, Arizona (Pac-12 Championship game)

Losses: LSU

Nationally Ranked at year's end? Third in the Nation

Breakdown: Fresh off of a loss in the National Championship game against Auburn last year, the Ducks will be out looking for revenge. The defense will be losing the majority of their starting front-seven on defense along with a few receivers and offensive lineman on offense. However, the core group of Oregon's playmakers will be returning: LaMichael James, Darron Thomas, Kenjon Barner and Cliff Harris.

Despite the fact the team only has 13 returning starers, Oregon's high-tempo style of play allowed many backups to play for extended periods of time throughout the game. A lack of experience shouldn't falter the high-flying Ducks in 2011.

6th in South Division: Colorado (2-11)

Toughest game: @ Ohio State

Wins: Colorado State, Washington State

Losses: @ Hawaii, Cal, @ Ohio State, @ Stanford, @ Washington, Oregon, @ Arizona State, USC, Arizona, @ UCLA, @ Utah

Nationally ranked at year's end? Nope.

Breakdown: What a tough way to be welcomed into the Pac-12 conference. Colorado, who just left the Big 12, now has Oregon, Ohio State, Stanford and Arizona on their schedule. Sorry, Buffaloes fans, but things do not look good for Colorado this season, who will quite frankly be lucky to scratch away a single victory against a Pac-12 team.

5th in South Division: UCLA (3-9)

Toughest game: @ Stanford

Wins: @ Houston, San Jose State, Colorado

Losses: Texas, @ Oregon State, @ Stanford, @ Arizona, Cal, Arizona State, @ Utah, @ USC

Nationally ranked at year's end? Nope.

Breakdown: With the recent injury to quarterback Richard Brehaut, the quarterback competition might have opened just enough for Kevin Prince to step in and snag it. However, UCLA will have more to worry about than just who their starting quarterback is. There are a lot of tough games on UCLA's calendar and scheduling an out of conference game against Texas doesn't help, either.

4th in the South Division: Utah (6-6)

Toughest game: @ Arizona

Wins: Montana State, @ BYU, Oregon State, UCLA, Washington State, Colorado

Losses: @ USC, Washington, Arizona State, @ Pittsburgh, @ Cal, @ Arizona

Nationally ranked at year's end? Nope.

Breakdown: Even though Boise State beat Utah in the Maaco bowl by 23 points in 2010, many people seem to forget that Utah was actually ranked as high as fifth in the nation until they got creamed by TCU in early November. Since they are leaving the Mountain West Conference, the Utes' schedule will instantly become tougher and it will be interesting to see how they can adjust to the increased level of play that the Pac-12 will have to offer.

3rd in South Division: USC (7-5)

Toughest game: @ Oregon

Wins: Minnesota, Utah, Syracuse, @ Cal, @ Colorado, Washington, UCLA

Losses: @ Arizona State, Arizona, @ Notre Dame, Stanford, @ Oregon

Nationally ranked at year's end? Nope.

Breakdown: Now that Oregon has officially taken the crown away from USC as the Pac-12's elite, USC will try to start their journey back to dominance in 2011. However, the Trojans need to beat teams like Oregon State, Washington and Notre Dame if they have any hope of retuning to excellence. With Matt Barkley primed for a breakout year, 2011 could be the year they do it. Whether it is likely or not is a completely different question, and I don't think it is.

2nd in the South Division: Arizona State (9-3)

Toughest game: @ Oregon

Wins: U.C. Davis, @ Illinois, USC, Oregon State, @ Utah, Colorado, @ UCLA, @ Washington State, Cal

Losses: Missouri, @ Oregon, Arizona

Nationally ranked at year's end? 17th in the nation.

Breakdown: The Arizona State Sun Devils are my surprise team of 2011. They will have 19 returning starters from 2010, which will be the third-most in the NCAA. The Sun Devils will have an excellent defense led by Vontaze Burfict, the first-team All American linebacker who is considered to be one of the best at his position in the entire country. However, quarterback Steven Threet has decided to forgo his senior year and quit football due to four concussions he suffered last year. Arizona State's success will likely fall on the hands of new quarterback Brock Osweiler, who threw for 656 yards and five touchdowns in the two games he started last year. Things surely look promising for the Sun Devils in 2011.

1st in the South Division: Arizona (10-2)

Toughest game: Oregon

Wins: Northern Arizona, @ Oklahoma State, @ USC, @ Oregon State, UCLA, @ Washington, Utah, @ Colorado, @ Arizona State, Louisiana-Lafayette

Losses: Stanford, Oregon

Nationally ranked at year's end? 13th in the country.

Breakdown: The Arizona Wildcats heard the best news they possibly could have in the offseason: quarterback Nick Foles would put the NFL on hold and return to Arizona for his senior year. Arizona's ninth-ranked passing attack in 2010 will be in full flight this season because Foles' favorite target Juron Criner will also be back for his senior year. Criner had a monster year last after catching 82 passes for 1,233 yards and 11 touchdowns. However, Coach Mike Stoops will have to figure out how to revamp his defensive life after losing a couple of starters.

1st Ever Pac-12 Champion: Oregon Ducks

You heard it here first, folks: the Oregon Ducks will pick up where they left off in 2010 and fly towards another conference championship in 2011.

Oregon simply has too much talent on their roster from the offense, the defense, to even the special teams who didn't allow a kick to be returned for a touchdown all season.

Even though talent-wise Oregon is the best team in the Pac-12, that doesn't mean they are going to steamroll their competition like they did last year. The target will be on their backs since they are fresh off of a National Championship appearance, and I expect almost every game to be a grind for the defending Pac-10 champs.

However, no matter who emerges victorious out of the Pac-12 this year, the new conference layout will greatly benefit them since it permits an extra game to be played against a potentially ranked opponent.

When schools are in the hunt for as many victories over ranked-opponents as possible in order to move up in the BCS rankings, the Pac-12 Championship Game could go down as being the difference maker that propels a team into the National Championship game.