Michigan Football: 10 Reasons to Be Optimistic and Pessimistic

The atmosphere in Ann Arbor couldn't be better.  It's almost like baseball's spring training where everyone is a pennant contender. That's how much optimism surrounds the Michigan football program.

It all started when athletic director, Dave Brandon, introduced Brady Hoke as the new Michigan coach.  

Hoke's initial game plan would stress good old smash-mouth football, where the offense would move the chains, then move them again.  

Catch-words like integrity, responsibility, focus and dedication have again become part of Michigan football lingo.  

Ex-players and fans alike are now firmly behind Ann Arbor's most recent "Michigan Man."  Hoke won them over by hiring solid assistant coaches and bringing in several outstanding recruits.   

The excitement may be a bit much. Here's a team that lost 37-7 to Ohio State and 52-14 to Mississippi State in closing the 2010 season.

And College Football News.com has the nerve to pick the Wolverines to win the initial Legends Division title.

As our friend Lee Corso might say, "Not so fast, my friend." The Wolverines may be on some incredible high, but they've yet to play a game.

Let's look at several reasons why Michigan might be optimistic, and several reasons why not.

Pessimistic: Defensive Backfield

There has been plenty of hoopla over returning cornerbacks Troy Woolfolk and J.T. Floyd. Woolfolk missed the entire 2010 season with leg and ankle injuries, while Floyd also injured an ankle and missed the final five games.

While it's nice that both starters are back, there's one key statistic that's alarming, to say the least.

Interceptions, some say, are an important element of pass defense. If you combine all the returning cornerbacks and safeties,  then check for their career interceptions, you'd come up with a total of four. That's right, safety Jordan Kovacs has three and Floyd has one.     

Optimistic: Denard Robinson

Denard Robinson came of age in 2010, setting numerous records on his way to a sixth-place finish in the Heisman Trophy race. Needless to say, Robinson had a great year for a first-year starting quarterback.

A threat to score from anywhere on the field, Robinson won the Chicago Tribune Big Ten MVP Award, and led the Big Ten in total offense with 4,272 yards.

The super sophomore also led the Big Ten in rushing (1,702 yards), while passing for an additional 2,570 yards.   

Pessimistic: Suspensions

The star of of a lousy football team is normally the center or the punter. Back in 1934, Michigan had one of its few putrid seasons. The Wolverines lost seven of eight games including a 34-0 romp by Ohio State.

Of course, the center was named the team's most valuable player. His name was Gerald Ford, who later became the 38th President of the United States.

If it wasn't for Denard Robinson, punter Will Hagerup might have been mentioned in MVP discussions. The freshman punter dropped 11 of his 33 punts inside the 20, and averaged a smart 43.6 yards-per-punt.

Unfortunately Hagerup broke team rules and was suspended for the Ohio State loss.

Apparently, he's run messed up again and has been suspended for the first four games of the season. There is a good chance freshman Matt Wile will take over all the kicking and punting duties until Hagerup's return.

To make matters worse, Darryl Stonum's problems with alcohol have finally got the best of him. A second DUI led to Stonum landing in Coach Hoke's doghouse. But instead of getting kicked off the team, Stonum was forced to take a redshirt this season. The talented wide receiver caught 49 passes in 2010.

Junior receiver Terrence Robinson was suspended for the opening game also for breaking team rules.  

Optimistic: Notre Dame Under the Lights

There's plenty of reason for Michigan to be excited about with the Michigan vs. Notre Dame game. The Wolverines have won two straight and four of the last five. The game will be played before a raucous crowd at the Big House, under the lights and on national television.

This will be the first chance for Coach Hoke to make a real statement.

Will Denard Robinson be content to play under center, or will Hoke turn him loose, looking for another 502-yard performance from the elusive quarterback?

Then there's the Michigan student section, which is beginning to resemble the unruly group at Michigan hockey games. They will be at their best, encouraging the crowd to be loud, especially when Notre Dame has the ball. 

Pessimistic: A Trip to Spartan Stadium

Michigan has a very good chance of heading into Spartan Stadium undefeated. Michigan State, on the other hand, would very much like to keep their three-game winning streak over the Wolverines intact.

Spartan fans are still smarting over the "little brother" comment made by Michigan running back Michael Hart back in 2007.

The Wolverines will be hard-pressed to overcome a Michigan State team that has 13 starters returning from its 11-2 Big Ten co-championship team.

Quarterback Kirk Cousins, who's been mentioned in the Heisman Trophy conversation, returns along with running back Edwin Baker, three wide receivers and three defensive linemen.

Coach Mark Dantonio would like nothing more than keep the streak alive, since Hoke is beginning to make recruiting inroads in the State of Michigan.

Optimistic: Offensive Line

The Michigan offensive line made significant strides from 2009 to 2010. And look for the line to be even better this year. Four of the five projected starters have significant experience. Right tackle Mark Huyge has started 16 games,  center David Molk has 29 starts, left guard Patrick Omameh has 16 and left tackle Taylor Lewan has nine. 

The line is getting bigger, too, This year's first unit should average 296 pounds, while the first group of reserves weighs an average of 318.

Three freshman, Tony Posada, Chris Bryant and walk-on Gary Yerdan each weigh about 340, and each could get some playing time.   

Pessimistic: Rich Rod's Players

Except for maybe a running back, a kicker, a linebacker and a safety, you'll be watching Rich Rodriguez' football team. 

Alright, the offense put up some pretty good numbers last year but only scored an average of 16.3 points in the final three games. 

Defensively, Michigan is counting on bench-warmer Will Campbell to fill a slot in the interior line and will probably start redshirt freshman Jake Ryan at strong-side linebacker. You've seen the rest, but if there is a silver lining in an otherwise dark cloud, it is that last year's defensive unit played a lot of minutes. 

Optimistic: Freshman Contributors

Probably the biggest chatter in training camp has been about the play of two freshmen running backs, Thomas Rawls and Justice Hayes.

Rawls could actually get extended playing time at tailback, where upperclassmen Stephen Hopkins, Michael Cox and a host of others are battling for the starting job.

Rawls, a 5'10" 219-pound bruiser from Flint Northern, is a between-the-tackles power runner Hoke is looking for. Hayes, at 5'10", 176 pounds, is on the small side, but has excellent cutting ability and blazing speed.

Other freshmen who should see playing time are safety Josh Furman, cornerback Greg Brown, linebacker Jake Ryan and defensive end Brennan Beyer. Of course you can't forget massive offensive linemen Gary Yerden, Tony Posada and Chris Bryant.

Another freshman, kicker Matt Wile, may handle field goals, kickoffs and punting, while Hagerup serves his suspension.

Redshirts, however, could delay the start of some careers until next season.  

Pessimistic: Scheme Changes

When Rich Rodriguez arrived in 2008, he immediately switched from a Lloyd Carr's pro-style offense to a spread option. The problem was, he didn't have a quarterback to run it.

There's basically the same concern with Hoke switching back to a more robust attack, where the quarterback will line up under center.

The idea is to limit Denard Robinson's carries, while getting the other running backs involved. Robinson would then be more of a pocket passer which is a concern to many.

It's been argued that Robinson, at only 6'0", is not the polished passer needed for the pro-style offense.  

Optimistic: Ohio State

Everyone knows what's happening at Ohio State. Jim Tressel is out as the Buckeyes' head coach, quarterback Terrelle Pryor has left the team, and the NCAA is about to make life even more miserable for Ohio State's football program.

To add icing on the cake, Brady Hoke has been recruiting prospects away from interim Buckeye coach Luke Fickell.

By the time Michigan and Ohio State get together in November, the Buckeyes should know the extent of their penalties.  

It's possible they could lose scholarships and be banned from post season play. All of this stems from a group of players trading Ohio State memorabilia for tattoos.

Tressel was forced to resign for withholding information from proper authorities.

The Wolverines haven't beaten the Buckeyes since 2003.  Realistically, Michigan has a good chance to end the misery, November 26, 2011.