Purdue Boilermakers Analysis and Projections

Just about everything that could go wrong did go wrong for the Purdue Boilermakers in 2010. Week after week, injuries to key players continued to pile up for the Boilermakers en route to a 4-8 season and a ninth place finish in the Big Ten conference with a 2-6 record in league play. 

The Boilermakers did not exactly finish the season on a high note either as they lost their final six games by an average of 20 points. 

Purdue's head coach Danny Hope, who has compiled a 9-17 record in two seasons in West Lafayette, was forced to play 17 freshmen and only six seniors throughout last season due to the team's inability to remain healthy. 

The misfortune and struggles the Boilermakers endured in 2010 will undoubtedly make them a better team in 2011. 

Purdue returns 19 starters from last year's squad and get junior running back Ralph Bolden back as well after he missed the entire 2010 campaign with a torn ACL, which gives them a legitimate shot at qualifying for a bowl game for the first time since 2007. 

Offense:

The offense could not find a way to put points on the board consistently last season because of a poor passing offense, which ranked 114th among all 120 Football Bowl Subdivision (formerly Division I-A) teams in pass efficiency. 

Senior quarterback Robert Marve is recovering from a torn ACL, which knocked him out for Purdue's final eight games last season, and his status for the Boilermakers' opening game is up in the air at the moment. 

If Marve is unable to play, the Boilermakers will hand the keys over to sophomore Rob Henry, who threw for 996 yards, accumulated 547 rushing yards and 12 total touchdowns over the final eight games in 2010. 

Bolden's recovery from ACL surgery is going much smoother and he has impressed the coaches with his ability to cut and accelerate during the first week of practices. The junior running back ran for 935 yards and nine touchdowns in 2009 and will help maintain the Boilermakers' strong rushing attack despite losing their second and third leading rushers from last season. 

Junior college transfer tailback Akeem Shavers will get plenty of carries alongside Bolden and both should have great success in 2011 behind an offensive line consisting of three seniors and two juniors.

The Boilermakers' rushing attack will be the strength of their offense, but their success rests with the play of their quarterbacks and whether or not a "go-to" receiver emerges from an unheralded group of pass catchers.

Defense:

All-American defensive end Ryan Kerrigan's departure is a significant hit to the defense, but the Boilermakers return nine starters from last year's defense, which ranked 43rd in the FBS rushing defense last season.  

Senior defensive end will need to step up and become a force on the edge to create pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Junior defensive tackle Kawann Short has a chance to make the All-Big Ten team if fellow defensive tackle Bruce Gaston can emerge as a legitimate run-stopper. 

The secondary returns all four starters from last season and the linebacking corps returns Joe Holland and Dwayne Beckford, who were both among the teams top tacklers in 2010. 

Overall, the defense should be as good if not better than last season and should be able to keep the Boilermakers within striking range late in games.

 

Prediction:

With a savvy group of veterans returning this season the Boilermakers will be better then a year ago, but the passing offense is going to be a major question mark heading into the Big Ten schedule. If Marve or Henry cannot do any damage against opposing defenses through the air the Boilermakers will not be winning many games in 2011. 

The Boilermakers should win their first three games against Middle Tennessee State, Rice and Southeast Missouri State, but it is an uphill climb from there. 

Home games against Notre Dame and Ohio State along with difficult road trips to Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan are all likely losses for the Boilermakers.  

So, Purdue will need to take advantage of winnable games against Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois. The Boilermakers need to win all three of those games in order to make a bowl game unless they are able to pull off a big upset. 

If the Boilermakers can stay healthy they will be contending for a bowl bid, but I think they will be upset by Minnesota in early October and come up one game short this season.

Projected Record: 5-7 (2-6 Big Ten, Fifth Place Leaders)

9/3 - Middle Tennessee State - Win

9/10 - @ Rice - Win

9/17 - Southeast Missouri State - Win

10/1 - Notre Dame - Loss

10/8 - Minnesota - Loss

10/15 - @ Penn State - Loss

10/22 - Illinois - Win

10/29 - @ Michigan - Loss

11/5 - @ Wisconsin - Loss

11/12 - Ohio State - Loss

11/19 - Iowa - Loss

11/26 - @ Indiana - Win

If you want to see projections and analysis of the other teams in the Big Ten you can check out season previews for the Indiana Hoosiers and Minnesota Golden Gophers. Tomorrow I will be breaking down the Illinois Fighting Illini so be sure to check back for that as well!

Zach Dirlam is a Big Ten Columnist for the new website Sports at Work. Check out his blog, Dirlam’s Dirty Dugout Sports Blog, which features this story along with other articles and video reports on the major sports. You can also follow his blog on Twitter, which will provide you with the latest updates about what will be posted on the blog!