Irish Independence, Conference Realignment and How ND Could Land in the Big Ten

On Saturday, news broke that Texas A&M intended to leave the Big 12 and was seeking admission into the SEC. Angered over rival University of Texas's new television network and lack of immediate Big 12 response, the Aggies are set to become the third team in as many years to say "adios" to the youngest major conference.

In 2011, the conference will officially lose Colorado to the Pac-12 and Nebraska to the Big Ten. Shedding a strong all-sport member with a large and loyal fanbase to the already superior SEC won't help long-term conference stability. 

The remaining cog in the Big 12 wheel may in fact be the Longhorns. The University of Texas has looked at becoming an independent in the past and has also been linked by rumor to the Big Ten.

If Big 12 Commissioner Dan Beebe is to save the conference, he has to hold on to Texas.

In order to hold on to Texas, he may will likely need to bring in new blood, and that blood has to be rich in both dollars and diversity.

Texas wants Notre Dame.

To fully understand the current shaky state of conference alignment, we must return for a moment to the offseason preceding the 2010 season.

Not only did the Big 12 shed two members, but the Pac-10 seemed on a mission to add six members and become the first football super conference. They admitted Colorado and Utah, and were rumored to be courting several other Big 12 schools, including Texas.

The SEC was rumored to be looking to explode the ACC and potentially take Florida State and Clemson as well as potentially Texas A&M and Oklahoma from the Big 12 to also become a 16-team super conference.

The Big Ten was set to respond by taking Nebraska and Missouri from the Big 12, Pittsburgh and Rutgers from the Big East and, if they could get them, Notre Dame or Texas to also become a 16-team super conference.

The remnants of the ACC and Big East would likely combine and also remain as a 16-team conference that lacked any of the big hitters of the other conferences.

What happened that year was the Big 12 stabilizing (thanks mostly to Texas's reluctance to pull the trigger and jump ship) and only Nebraska, Colorado, and Utah made major conference moves. 

To add confusion, Boise State jumped from the WAC to the Mountain West, and Texas Christian for reasons no one can fully understand moved to the Big East.

With Texas A&M moving to the SEC, part of the larger conference Armageddon could have begun. The SEC will have an unbalanced 13 teams, and will be likely looking to add at least one more school.

That school will likely come in the form of either Florida State from the ACC or Oklahoma from the Big 12.

It is possible that the SEC will try to expand to the originally talked about 16 teams, more than likely destroying the Big 12 and setting off the total destruction of the conferences as we have them today.

Should this all happen, the college football landscape will be a much less friendly place. There will be four super conferences and everyone else.

For Notre Dame, an already difficult path to a national title becomes almost impossible.

See Boise State for reasons why.

If Notre Dame doesn't succumb to pressure and join the Big Ten (16) as the Big 12 falls apart, it could be the team that saves it.

The Irish rely on a healthy group of schools who believe non-conference competition should include some strength rather than a mix of patsies from the MAC, Sun Belt and SWAC. Those opponents would likely dry up as the four "super" conferences would likely have a compensatory scheduling mechanism to play each other.

Plus with so many conference opponents and a strong conference championship game to worry about at the end of what will likely be a nine-game conference schedule, scheduling a Notre Dame would probably be frowned upon.

Further more, it is likely that the pathway into the BCS will be limited to a win in a conference championship game.

If these dominoes begin to fall, and Oklahoma vacates the disintegrating Big 12, Notre Dame could be quickly left with three options.

1. Join the Big Ten in their push toward 16.

Already at 12 teams, the Big Ten will be looking to expand into new markets and draw in an expanding fan base. While Notre Dame doesn't expand the footprint at all, they do bring in a large national following and television contract with NBC.

The Irish also could be instrumental in recruiting Texas and Pittsburgh into the fold. The resulting conference would rival any in recruiting prowess and income generation.

2. Join the Big 12 in order to save the league.

Should Oklahoma leave with Texas A&M, the Big 12 would officially be on life support with only the Longhorns keeping it afloat. With the Irish on board, the conference could pitch to recently independent BYU and potentially Boise State to come on board, or for TCU to come home should the Big East crumble as well.

The problem with this scenario is that you would need Texas without Oklahoma, and Notre Dame will likely not want to join because several of the member institutions don't meet Notre Dame's standard academically for being a "peer institution."

The move to the Big Ten is much more palatable with Northwestern, Purdue and a host of solid academic state schools in the fold.

3. Continue to go it alone.

Hope that Texas chooses independence, and along with BYU, forms a kind of "by default" conference. Sure, the schedule becomes more interesting every year, with a lot more mid-majors, Army, Navy, Texas and BYU year in and year out. 

Will Notre Dame join a conference?

Eventually, more than likely.

Will it be soon?

For that, we will have to wait and see. Watch Texas and Oklahoma. If one leaves the Big 12, likely so does the other, and then, all hell breaks loose.