College Football Realignment: Predicting the Landing Spot of Every Big 12 Member

After months of controversy regarding member schools leaving, realigning a smaller conference, marketing brand and logo issues, the Big 12 looked to be finally, at long last, settling in for a long awaited season of college football

Colorado and Nebraska were officially gone, the conference championship was no more, TV contracts were revamped and ready to pay-out; yes, other than some lingering issues about possible additions down the road, the future looked somewhat bright for the Big 12 with 10 teams.

And then the bombshell hit...Texas Governor and now Presidential Candidate Rick Perry let the cat out of the bag just over a week ago by making some overtures about his alma mater, Texas A&M, being in contact with the SEC regarding reconsidering a move that had been on the cards last year but squelched at the last minute when the Big 12 was suddenly saved from a sudden and sure death.

It seems that the Aggies may have been at least partially motivated to get back in bed with the SEC after arch rival Texas’ plans for The Longhorn Network began to show signs of a further gross imbalance of power both within the state and the conference.

Texas A&M’s move to the SEC is certainly not a done deal, and is actually, per the SEC on Sunday, off the table "for now" but if they do bid the Big 12 a fond farewell, it could spell the end of the league that joined the old Southwest Conference and Big 8 together back in 1996.

The following slideshow takes this riveting discussion one step further and predicts a new home for each of the current members of the Big 12 conference if the affiliation actually does disband; an occurrence that has the potential for a series of knock-on effects that could forever alter the landscape of college football.

Baylor

Baylor is perhaps the school that would be the most difficult to align properly, with their football fortunes finally rising, their basketball programs both playing at a high level and solid academics the Bears would be attractive to several leagues.

From a football standpoint, Baylor represents a team that will compete hard but could be considered “soft” which might make them more attractive to one of the larger conferences. But at the end of the day, I think their best fit would be with the Big East.

A move to the Big East (which makes no sense geographically) aligns them with TCU (who moves there from the MWC in 2012) giving that conference a stronger presence in the state of Texas.

The other part that makes sense is Baylor becoming a part of the Big East from a basketball standpoint, which allows both the conference and the school to benefit from a very successful current basketball program (men’s and women’s).

You could pitch Conference USA as a suitable alternative but with SMU, Houston, Rice and UTEP already on board I see it as over saturation in Texas for C-USA and a bad alternative for Baylor who might get lost in the crowd.

Iowa State

Schools like Iowa State, who haven’t scored a football championship since winning the 1912 Missouri Valley Conference, are really put at risk by the decisions being made by programs like Nebraska, Texas and Texas A&M.

Though the Cyclones continue to play better, they just aren’t as competitive (historically or presently) as some of the other schools who remain as Big 12 members, even though they’ve been a member of the Big 8 and then Big 12 since the early date of 1928 (a fact that is hard to believe).

Iowa State’s best option looks to be aligning with the Mountain West Conference who lost Utah and BYU last season, added Boise State this year, loses TCU next year but adds WAC Nevada, Fresno State and Hawaii in 2012.

The Cyclone’s align well geographically with the MWC, and could negotiate an agreement where in if Kansas and Kansa State join them as a package deal that the MWC would receive full BCS AQ status, making it a positive deal for the entire conference.

Kansas

It’s hard to believe that it’s only been three seasons since the Jayhawks went 12-1 and finished just one narrow loss to Missouri from perfection and a shot at the big enchilada.

But this is not 2007, and though Kansas is a solid program that will rise again from the ashes, from a football standpoint they may fit best with the Mountain West Conference.

The tricky bit about the Jayhawks is their tradition rich, championship-caliber basketball program who would no doubt take the MWC to new heights in round ball but the big question would be...would this really be the right move for Kansas basketball?

You could toy with the idea that if we are going to have four “super conferences” that Kansas and Kansas State could hookup with the Big Ten, but the more realistic alternative seems aligning both with the MWC (with Iowa State) based on the provision that it would become a BCS conference, immediately.

Kansas State

Keeping Kansas and Kansas State together would seem ideal, though it wouldn’t be a deal breaker if either got a better offer, and so I will go with the Mountain West as a possible new home for the Wildcats.

Kansas State, who fielded some crazy good teams from the mid-1990’s to early-2000’s would be a good fit in the MWC from a football standpoint and would also bolster the level of play for the conference from a basketball point of view.

Again, I think the biggest deal breaker on moving Iowa State, Kansas and Kansas State (or any ex-BCS teams) to the MWC would be the question of BCS status, a topic which has already been discussed without any realignment plans and would definitely need to be addressed if the three considered membership.

Missouri

The Tigers are already being discussed as a possible fourth team to join the SEC, but frankly speaking I think you could make a better argument for Mizzou in the Big Ten than the SEC.

First, geographically speaking Missouri lines up better with the Big Ten, and secondly it just makes sense to have Missouri (a flagship school in their state) line up with the likes of Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota and Wisconsin rather than Florida, LSU and Ole Miss.

Missouri is certainly more a part of the Midwest than it is a part of the Southeast.

If the SEC goes to 14 or 16 teams, the Big Ten and Pac 12 (and perhaps MWC or ACC) will have to follow suit, meaning the demise of another conference (the Big East?) and the need for solid programs (like Missouri) to join up with super conferences.

Oklahoma

The Sooners have sat rather quietly and watched the Texas-driven hysteria bring the conference that they have dominated since its inception to its knees.

Yes, out of the 15 Big 12 championship games played since the league premiered in 1996, Oklahoma has played in eight of them and won a whopping seven.

And the Longhorns, who like to sit in the conference drivers’ seat, have been to a mere five title games and won just three.

This makes Oklahoma probably the most alluring and financially seductive program to other conferences if the Big 12 really does bite the dust; you’ve got a winning team in an obsessed state with a lot less drama.

The perfect fit for the Sooners is to follow Missouri to the Big Ten, where they could join other Midwestern and Plains states flagship universities and reunite its heated and hated relationship with Nebraska.

Oklahoma State

The Cowboys are surging at just the right moment (unlike the Red Raiders) to pluck a pretty little prize in the potential realignment derby.

With an upswing in football, top-notch facilities and a history of success in basketball, Oklahoma State could follow big brother Oklahoma to the Big Ten, or, and perhaps more suitably they could strikeout on their own and join the Pac 12.

The Pacific conclave showed interest in Oklahoma State last season (before the Big 12’s demise was thwarted) and their style seems to fit well with the boys from way out west.

Another potential home for OSU would be the Mountain West, but you would think that they should strike while the iron is hot and get the best possible deal they can, which might be the Pac 12.

Yet another interesting wrinkle regarding Texas A&M’s potential move is the concept of shifting old in-state rivals away from each other by placing them in different conferences.

If A&M can leave the Longhorns, then why can’t Oklahoma State leave the Sooners?

Texas

Well, you could point the finger for this entire debacle at the Longhorns who continue to assert their financial authority in a way that is finally repelling their friends, rivals and neighbors.

Texas’ good fortune and tradition of grabbing for more brings up the eternal question, “When is enough enough?”

Given the current climate of greed and dominance (and these aren’t cheap shots, I think they are realistic labels) the best conference fit for Texas is no conference.

The Longhorns have enough stroke to go independent, negotiate a “Notre Dame” type deal with the BCS regarding automatic qualifying conditions and never ever look back.

Why play “nicely” nice when you don’t have to, and plus, everywhere the Longhorns would play (not unlike Notre Dame) would be a huge game and draw crowds and money (the real point of college football, right? Which is a cheap shot).

Texas has proven themselves too power driven to hold membership in an affiliation and foster its continued growth and mutual success; therefore let them declare their independence and tell themselves what to do.

Texas A&M

This isn’t a hard one to predict. Texas A&M (a school that before 2010 last finished the season ranked in the Top 25 in 1999) goes to the SEC (a deal that the SEC says, "as of now, is off the table").

The Aggies affiliation with the SEC would no doubt bolster recruiting and interest in A&M athletics but what happens after they actually get to the most dominant conference in college football?

I’m not saying A&M can’t compete there (because they could and eventually would) but the Aggies haven’t beaten an SEC opponent since they beat LSU (33-17) in 1995 (in College Station).

A great example of what could happen is provided by looking back at Arkansas who left the old Southwest Conference in 1991 to hook up with the SEC (a move that actually kicked off the entire series of events that ultimately take us to the Aggies wanting to join the SEC).

The Razorbacks won 13 conference titles in 53 years with the SWC, and thus far in 19 years as members of the SEC they have won three divisional crowns and ZERO conference championships.

Yes, Arkansas went 81-36 in their last decade in the SWC and then 58-56 in their first decade with the SEC.

I think that most reasonable people can understand why Texas A&M wants to leave the Big 12, but you have to hope that their rush out the door to avoid being “dominated  by Texas” doesn’t ultimately lead to them being “dominated into further obscurity” by a move to the SEC.

Texas Tech

Red Raider fans (myself included) have to feel a bit sick about the timing of the potential demise of the Big 12; yes, had this all have happened a couple of years ago, Texas Tech would be sitting pretty instead of wondering what might happen to their beloved school and football program.

Perhaps Tech should have seen the writing on the wall last year, when they were offered a deal to join the Pac 12, and wisely left (as did Colorado and Nebraska) deciding not to believe those that asserted that the conference was “stable.”

Though you could make an argument for Tech to go to the MWC or the Big East (seriously) the best fit for the Red Raiders might be with the Pac 12.

The move would get the west coast league into the media-rich state of Texas and the personality of Tech’s program fits well with the Pac-12 conference.

Though Texas Tech might be going through some transitory issues from a football standpoint, with a new top-tier football coach, basketball coach and AD, this is an athletic department that has been priming itself to compete at the highest level and this is what the Pac 12 would offer.

If the Pac 12 looks to super-size, Texas Tech is a perfect candidate for spreading their influence westward into a great football state and if they went in conjunction with Oklahoma State, you have a great opportunity for building a prime division with Arizona and Arizona State.