College Football: 7 Players Likely to See a Drop in Production in 2011

Repeating highly productive seasons is very difficult in college football, much more so than in the NFL. The college game has fewer skilled players at every position, so All-Stars stand out more, and are easier to game plan against.

That's why, 36 years after Ohio State running back Archie Griffin first accomplished the feat, no one else has won the Heisman trophy a second time. 

In that same time period, six NFL players have won their second MVP award, and four times a player has won the award in consecutive seasons.

Opposing teams in the past have regularly altered strategies to negate the effects of players like Michael Vick and Percy Harvin. And on defense, star cornerbacks have been avoided like their names were Nnamdi Asomugha.

With that in mind, here are seven players likely to see a drop from their standout 2010 seasons.

Kellen Moore, Boise State Broncos

I'm among those who see the Boise State Broncos as overrated at preseason No. 7. Boise State returns their biggest weapon, Kellen Moore. But Moore has lost his top two receivers in Titus Young and Austin Pettis. It's hard to imagine he won't see a drop in production without his two best targets.

The statistics for Boise State in 2010 are telling. Young and Pettis combined for 2,166 receiving yards and 19 touchdowns. That means they accounted for 56 percent of Moore's passing yards, and over half of his 35 touchdown passes.

I just can't imagine Boise State easily replacing two NFL-caliber receivers (Young was selected in the second round of the draft, Pettis in the third). The Broncos don't recruit like Alabama and Texas. Seamlessly replacing phenomenal players is much harder, and much less likely.

Moore is an excellent quarterback. He and his team will still have a good season, I just wouldn't expect a repeat of 2009 (or 2010) for either.

They will be playing stiffer competition in the Mountain West Conference, and he won't have his two big targets to spread the field for him, which will result in Kellen Moore's superhuman numbers being brought back down to earth.

Jayron Hosley, Virginia Tech Hokies

Jayron Hosley led Virginia Tech, and the college football nation, in interceptions last year with nine.

If there's one thing we know about college cornerbacks, it's that they rarely repeat statistically productive years. I doubt Hosley will be any exception. ACC teams got to know him very well last year, and they won't be throwing the ball at him very often in 2011.

With sophomore Kyle Fuller taking over at the field cornerback position, quarterbacks will likely focus their attention away from Hosley.

Hosley can only hope that Fuller plays well and forces quarterbacks to come back his way from time to time. Otherwise he'll have to get his kicks in the return game.

Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State Cowboys

The Oklahoma State Cowboys football team more resembled a basketball team in their scoring production last season, setting a school record with 575 points.

Receiver Justin Blackmon got his fair share of action, catching 102 passes for 1,665 yards and 18 touchdowns. It was good enough to win him the Fred Biletnikoff Award.

Unfortunately, the Cowboys high-powered offense has taken a few hits. All-American running back Kendall Hunter graduated to the NFL, and offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen took John Denver's "country roads" home to West Virginia.

Blackmon, being the beast that he is, will still put up some numbers in 2011. Having lost his talented offensive coordinator, and a solid running back who kept safeties honest, those numbers will not be as astronomical as they were a year ago.

Andrew Luck, Stanford Cardinal

The Stanford Cardinal lost seven starters on offense after the 2010 season. Seven. The most important cog in the machine, quarterback Andrew Luck, has returned. The question is, who is going to help him?

Three of his five offensive lineman are gone. Both starting receivers are gone. Hybrid fullback Owen Marecic is gone. And coach Jim Harbaugh is now wearing San Francisco 49er's red.

While the NFL now gets to enjoy the talents of center Chase Beeler and receivers Doug Baldwin and Ryan Whalen, Luck has the unpleasant task of playing with their replacements.

Several NFL scouts have likened Luck to the Indianapolis Colt's Peyton Manning, and Manning has always seemed to do alright no matter who he is playing with.

Luck now has a chance to further confirm the comparison by competing at a high level with diminished talent around him. More likely, he will struggle a little more in 2011.

Dan Herron, Ohio State Buckeyes

OK, this is sort of a cheap one. But even after Dan "Boom" Herron returns from his five game suspension, I don't see him having a very productive 2011 (half) season.

Without quarterback Terrelle Pryor, the Ohio State Buckeyes will rely on Joe Bauserman or Braxton Miller under center. Either one will be a far cry from Pryor.

The distractions of the pending investigations, and the loss of coach Jim Tressel will certainly have a negative effect on the whole team. It'll be interesting to see how "Boom" Herron plays when he returns.

Knile Davis, Arkansas Razorbacks

The Arkansas Razorbacks offensive line will have to replace three starters in 2011. The attribute which truly separates the SEC from the rest of the college football world is stellar line play on both sides off the ball. As an SEC team, you never want to be breaking in a new line.

Razorbacks running back Knile Davis will be working behind different offensive lineman, and taking the ball from a different quarterback. Although the reports on Tyler Wilson are very promising, and he showed a lot filling in against Auburn last year, he still has big shoes to fill following Ryan Mallett.

The Arkansas running game got off to a very slow start in 2010. It certainly seems likely that 2011 could start the same way, especially with so many faces on the offensive line.

A rusty start again could end Knile Davis' Heisman campaign very quickly. Davis needs Wilson and the offensive line to be ready right away to match the 1,322 yards and 13 touchdowns he had a season ago.

Alshon Jeffery, South Carolina Gamecocks

I love Alshon Jeffery as a receiver. I love his size, his speed, his hands. He's great at going up and winning balls, and he plays best in big games.

That being said, there are a few factors working against him in 2011, the most pressing being the South Carolina Gamecocks' question mark at quarterback,

Stephen Garcia was temporarily suspended for the fifth time by coach Steve Spurrier in the spring. Aside from his off the field issues, his quarterback play itself has been erratic. He has had bright spots interspersed with bad decisions and too many turnovers.

Sophomore Connor Shaw would take over in the event that Garcia is finally booted or plays his way off the field.

Even if Jeffery finds steady quarterback play, opponents will likely do everything they can to take his playmaking abilities out of the picture.

Jeffery will have talented tailback Marcus Lattimore to distract defenses, but with receiver Tori Gurley moving on to the NFL, the Gamecocks don't have many other viable targets in the passing game. It will be difficult for Jeffery to match his 88 receptions, 1,517 yards, or nine touchdowns from a year ago.