2011 NFL Predictions: Seahawks-Chargers Highlights Thursday Betting Action

The 2011 National Football League preseason begins Thursday night with a slate of five games scheduled, highlighted by a nationally-televised game between the Seattle Seahawks and San Diego Chargers kicking off at 8:00 EST on ESPN.

From a betting perspective, it’s always necessary to take a quick look at what happened during last year’s opening week of exhibition action, as a particular trend may have come about.

With that being said, handicappers should be wary of comparing certain situations from previous years to this one, as the lockout’s effect on the season is unknown at this point. 

During Week 1 of the 2010 preseason, favorites went 9-7 ATS (against-the-spread), while the "over" cashed in 11 of the 16 contests.

Let’s take a closer look at all of Thursday’s action from a bettor’s point-of-view.

Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles (-3), Total 34

Philadelphia Eagles head coach Andy Reid announced that his first string will likely play the entire first quarter.  Quarterback Michael Vick will be under center, but he’ll be missing starting wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin.

As stated in a previous article, Reid is 0-7 ATS during the first week of the preseason over the last seven years.  Philadelphia failed as a three-point home favorite in last year’s 28-27 win over Jacksonville in that particular situation.

John Harbaugh will be returning to Lincoln Financial Field for the first time since leaving for Baltimore after 10 years with the Eagles primarily as a special teams coach.

The Ravens are expected to play starting quarterback Joe Flacco for a quarter or less, as most of the reps will go to rookie Tyrod Taylor.  The former Virginia Tech signal-caller hasn't played a live game since throwing for 222 yards in a January loss to Stanford in the Orange Bowl.

With the total sitting at 34 across the board, I recommend a play on the under in this contest. 

Ravens coordinator Cam Cameron has already stated that the players’ grasp of the playbook is limited due to the lockout.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-3.5), Total 35

New England and Jacksonville are meeting in the preseason for just the second time, as the Jaguars came away with a 31-0 victory at Gillette Stadium in the 2004 preseason finale.

The Patriots would seem to be a popular choice to cover the number, coming off a 14-2 regular season in 2010.  Coach Bill Belichick has been successful in previous preseason openers, posting a 7-1 ATS mark in the the last eight years.

Plenty of eyes will be on new wide receiver Chad Ochocinco, who will be working to develop a chemistry during the preseason with franchise quarterback Tom Brady.  It remains to be seen if he plays, as he was late to Wednesday’s walk-through practice.

Jacksonville will put its first round draft pick from this year’s draft on display, as former Missouri Tigers quarterback Blaine Gabbert is expected to start.  He will not have the luxury of handing the ball off to star running back Maurice Jones-Drew however, as he will not be traveling with the team.

New England is likely to be one of the most popular plays in Las Vegas Thursday night.  Watch the number closely, as the Patriots may move to a four-point favorite before kickoff.

Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers (-3.5), Total 35

The Seattle Seahawks came away with a stunning 27-20 victory over the San Diego Chargers in Week 3 last season as a 3.5-point home underdog. 

The Seahawks were thoroughly dominated in the contest, being out-gained by a 518-271 margin, but managed to score two special teams touchdowns.

Head coach Pete Carroll continues to make some major roster moves in the Pacific northwest, including the signing of a legitimate No. 1 receiver in Sidney Rice from Minnesota. 

San Diego finished a disappointing 2010 campaign with a 9-7 overall record despite leading the league in pass defense, while ranking second in throwing yards due to a talented quarterback.

Philip Rivers will lead an offense that lost just one starter from a year ago, as multi-purpose back Darren Sproles left for New Orleans.  His opposition under center will be Tarvaris Jackson, who also spent time with Rice in Minnesota.

Ironically enough, the last two times the Chargers have failed to win in their preseason home opener came against the Seahawks.  Taking the points again may be the play.

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (-3), Total 34

Denver has been one of the most talked about teams leading up to Thursday night, as the quarterback situation has turned into a media-enthused soap opera. 

Broncos starting quarterback Kyle Orton is coming off a solid year, passing for 3,653 yards and 20 touchdowns in 13 games last season, but the public is still yearning for second-year signal-caller Tim Tebow.  If new head coach John Fox gets one thing right this year, it would be ignoring the public and sticking behind Orton.

The Broncos will be aiming for a more balanced approach offensively this season, after attempting 580 passes in 2010 and rushing the ball just 398 times. 

Dallas is likely to get quarterback Tony Romo back into the flow of the game, as head coach Jason Garrett expects him to play at least one series.  It’s important for him to get used to game-type situations, after missing most of the 2010 season with a broken clavicle.

The Cowboys' starting cornerbacks Terence Newman and Mike Jenkins have been ruled out of the contest, which will allow valuable playing time for a youthful secondary. 

Bettors must be careful of the Tebow-effect, as he may be the most influential player in this contest in terms of the spread.  Denver is a dangerous dog because of it.

Arizona Cardinals at Oakland Raiders (-3.5), Total 32.5

Oakland has not been a preseason favorite of more than three points since the 2008-09 season and the result of that contest was a 24-0 home loss to the Arizona Cardinals.  That particular contest was played in Week 3, which is normally the preseason game in which the starters see the most action.

The Raiders will begin a new era with last year’s offensive coordinator Hue Jackson assuming control of the sidelines, as owner Al Davis surprisingly fired Tom Cable last year after an 8-8 season. 

Arizona begins life with Kevin Kolb at quarterback, as he was acquired from Philadelphia almost immediately after the lockout was lifted.  He has had the team’s playbook for just two weeks and will likely need an extended amount of work in the preseason to be ready for the season opener on Sept. 11 against Carolina.

Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt is also interested in finding his No. 2 quarterback over the next four weeks, as Josh Skelton is currently listed behind Kolb on the depth chart.

From a betting perspective, the line looks very suspicious in trying to draw betting action on the new-look Cardinals—making the Raiders an interesting play.