Rookie of the Year Odds for Every NBA First-Rounder

On occasion it is easy to predict who will be the NBA's rookie of the year (see LeBron James), but in the case of this year's draft class, there is no clear prospect.

The draft was thought to be shallow with talent and as a result, each first round draft pick is not far off in terms of development from the next, which should make for an extremely competitive rookie of the year chase.

Sure, the NBA is currently in a lockout that could cancel this season entirely, but it cannot hurt to take a look at who has what kind of chances of winning the highly coveted award.

And with this in mind, let's explore each first-round draft pick's chances of becoming this upcoming season's rookie of the year.

Nikola Mirotic of Chicago Bulls 1000:1

Nikola Mirotic actually has a mountain of potential. 

Last season, splitting time in the EuroLeague and ACB, he averaged a combined 7.4 points and 3.6 rebounds in 16 minutes of action per game. The numbers are not earth shattering, but he is only 20 years old and still developing.

Why is he the longest shot to win Rookie of the Year?

Mirotic may not be NBA ready just yet and may spend at least another year playing in Real Madrid.

And you cannot win the NBA Rookie of the Year from over there.

Cory Joseph of San Antonio Spurs 100:1

With the Spurs using their first-round pick to select a point guard, one would believe that they have Tony Parker already out the door.

Except they chose Cory Joseph out of Texas. 

Joseph is not an especially good passer, nor a quality scorer. He only averaged 10.4 points and three assists per game in over 32 minutes of action.

Additionally, Joseph is not that agile, which makes him a liability on the defensive end. Sure, this draft was not considered to be latent with talent, but San Antonio would have been better off choosing anyone who was 6'10" or taller, just to take up some space.

Joseph has about as much chance of winning rookie of the year as LeBron James does of getting a hug from Cavs owner Dan Gilbert.

Donatas Motiejunas of Houston Rockets 95:1

Donatas Motiejunas will be quite an addition to the Houston Rockets, who are in need of a big man to fill the void Yao Ming left when he retired, not that he played much as of late anyway.

At 7'0", Motiejunas certainly fills the void, and while he is a very good scorer, the Rockets need a solid defender and rebounder, which is something he is not. He averaged less than five rebounds per game last year in Italy. Someone his size should be grabbing three times as many boards.

Houston will welcome his scoring, but Motiejunas may even have trouble doing that until he bulks up. He needs to add size so he can become a better low-post scorer, as well as rebounder.

And that cannot be done overnight, meaning he is not a likely rookie of the year candidate.

Reggie Jackson of the Oklahoma City Thunder 90:1

Reggie Jackson is a very versatile point guard, able to pass, score and defend.

However, his athleticism may go overlooked in Oklahoma City because there is already another point guard of that type who is already a proven prolific player, in Russell Westbrook. As a result, Jackson will probably not see much playing time, and even if he does, the ball will not be in his hands nearly enough for him to truly show what he can do.

If the Thunder can figure out how to integrate Jackson into a rotation that already includes Westbrook, they will be better off and that much more dangerous. Jackson averaged 18.2 points and 4.5 assists per game last year at Boston.

To be the Rookie of the Year though, one needs to make enormous contributions to their respective team.

And unless Westbrook is moved, which is highly unlikely, Jackson will not need to do such a thing nor have an opportunity to do so.

Alec Burks of Utah Jazz 80:1

Alec Burks out of Colorado averaged 20.5  points and 6.5 rebounds per last year, emerging as one of the best shooting guards in the country.

As brutal as it may be though, Burks was most certainly a letdown to the Jazz and their fans after weeks of mock drafts had Jimmer Fredette landing in Utah. Fredette's shooting would have instantly landed him a rotation spot on the Jazz, while Burks is another story.

Burks can score, and he is a very good rebounding guard, but to get some serious burn on the court for Utah he is going to have to emerge as both a prolific scorer and defender, and fast.

Burks averaged 1.1 steals per game last season, so he is a solid defender, but the NBA is a different game. And while he is also a good scorer, he lacks significant range. He shot 29 percent from beyond the arc last year, and the line only moves further back now.

Barring a series of completely unforeseen and near impossible events, Burks will not be a Rookie of the Year candidate.

Jimmy Butler of Chicago Bulls 75:1

Chicago is need of prolific scorer to fill the shooting guard position, but Jimmy Butler does not exactly fit that bill.

Butler, at 6'7", is listed a forward, but he can play the 2, his shooting is just not entirely consistent. He is a very good defender though, and the Bulls are willing to experiment on the perimeter, which is why he is higher on this list than a few of those taken before him.

While Butler may get some substantial playing time, his offensive game is going to take time to develop and catch up to his defense, ultimately making him a long shot for achieving Rookie of the Year honors.

JaJuan Johnson of Boston Celtics 65:1

JaJuan Johnson is quite a defender, with a terrific wingspan that will enable him to defends nearly ever center in the league.

Given time on the court, Johnson will produce. He averaged 20.5 points, 8.6 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game at Purdue last year. His greatest disadvantage though may be the team he will be playing for. Boston already has four guys who its offense runs through, limiting Johnson's potential opportunities.

Johnson will be a great asset on defense for the Celtics, and he has the potential to turn heads, but Rookie of the Year honors are most likely not in the cards.

Tristan Thompson of Cleveland Cavaliers 55:1

At 6'8", Tristan Thompson is an extremely undersized power forward, and many were puzzled at why he was even chosen with the fourth overall pick.

Last year, while at Texas,Thompson averaged 13.1 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.4 blocks in a little over 30 minutes per game. The numbers are solid, but do not tell the whole story.

Thompson is not going to get over two blocks per game in the NBA, especially at his position. Additionally, his rebounding will decrease as well.

Other concerns of Thompson's is his shooting. He does not have great range, and is an abysmal free throw shooter. He shot under 50 percent from the line last year.

Thompson may be able to make a career in the NBA, but all signs point to a mediocre one that does not include winning Rookie of the Year.

Kawhi Leonard of San Antonio Spurs 50:1

Kawhi Leonard out of San Diego State could serve as an eventual replacement for the Spurs' Richard Jefferson.

Last season at San Diego State, Leonard averaged 15.5 points, and 10.6 rebounds per game. His numbers are very solid and he is an extremely unselfish player who is willing to work hard.

The only problem with Leonard is that he is not going to make an incredible impact right off the bat. Given the opportunity, he will be able to make a contribution, but his numbers are not going to be near what they were in college for at least a year.

Leonard has the tools to become a very good role player, but not the right ones to win Rookie of the Year.

Tobias Harris of Milwaukee Bucks 48:1

Tobias Harris only has a slightly better chance than Kawhi Leonard to win rookie often because of the Milwaukee Bucks are rebuilding and are more likely to experiment. 

At Tennessee last year, Harris averaged 15.3 points and 7.3 rebounds in nearly 30 minutes per game. He had a solid freshman year, but he needs more developing.

Harris' defense needs a lot of work, he rarely played it effectively during his short time in college. Furthermore, the Bucks could definitely use another sharp shooter in their arsenal and Harris' game is mediocre at best.

Don't expect Harris to score nearly as many points as he did in college. His rebounding numbers should be relatively similar, but it won't win him Rookie of the Year.

Nolan Smith of Portland Trail Blazers 45:1

In Nolan Smith's final year at Duke, he averaged 20.6 points and 5.1 assists per game.

Smith is also a solid defender and averaged 1.2 steals per game last year. His quickness allows him to keep the opposition in front of him consistently.

Smith is playing for a Portland Trail Blazers team who already acquired a solid starter in Raymond Felton though. The most he can hope to get is some minutes as his backup, and it will be pretty tough to win any rookie of the year awards at that position. 

All of that being said though, he does have the potential to make a contribution to his team more so than those who are listed prior to him. 

While it is highly unlikely that Smith wins Rookie of the Year, he has a better chance than many of the others in his draft class.

Marshon Brooks of New Jersey Nets 40:1

Marshon Brooks is coming into a great situation with the New Jersey Nets and will have the opportunity to instantly succeed.

In his last year Providence, he averaged 24.6 points and seven rebounds per game. Additionally, he also averaged 1.2 blocks and 1.5 steals per game, emerging as one of the better defensive guard-forwards in the country.

Along side Deron Williams, Brooks should be able to thrive and get plenty of touches. His three points shooting is stellar at 34 percent, but if he can improve upon that he will be able to do some serious damage from the outside.

One down side for Brooks though is that everyone, sans Williams, on the Nets roster is bound to be linked to trade rumors regarding  Dwight Howard, which could mess with the rookie's mentality.

The Nets are hoping that Brooks will do exactly what he did in college: score and defend. It remains to be seen though if his skills will transition immediately into the NBA.

And this puts him in the middle of the pack for Rookie of the Year honors.

Jordan Hamilton of Denver Nuggets 35:1

Jordan Hamilton proved to be a very prolific scorer while at Texas, and given the opportunity he should be able to do just that in the NBA.

Hamilton averaged 18.6 points and 7.7 rebounds per game for the Longhorns last season. He was also a great three-point shooter at nearly 39 percent.

Defense is a weakness of Hamilton's but he has the athleticism to improve on that end. His scoring will be welcomed on a Denver Nuggets team that is currently in disarray.

Hamilton's odds on this list may surprise some, but his ability to score is just that good, and he may turn out to be a secret weapon in Denver, especially if J.R. Smith, Aaron Afflalo and Wilson Chandler all leave for greener pastures.

It may be a stretch to say that Hamilton can score like Carmelo Anthony, but it is not unfounded to say he one day could be.

If he is given significant time on the floor, and all indications are he will be, than he should at least prove to be mentioned in Rookie of the Year discussions, at least more so than his predecessors on this list.

Jonas Valanciunas of Toronto Raptors 33:1

Jonas Valanciunas averaged 7.6 points and 3.6 rebounds in less than 15 minutes of actions per game last season over in Europe,and he is full of potential.

The 6'11" center can run the floor well and also play the power forward position, making him a nice fit for the Toronto Raptors. He also adds some much needed defense to the team.

However, it is unclear whether Valanciunas will be playing stateside next season. If he does though, his versatility, combined with Toronto's ability to give him substantial playing time will allow him to become a part of the Rookie of the Year conversation.

Kenneth Faried of Denver Nuggets 30:1

Kenneth Faried dropped slightly lower in the draft than most projected, but the Denver Nuggets welcomed the opportunity to grab him.

With Kenyon Martin most likely on the way out and Nene's future up in the air, Faried's rebounding abilities will be welcomed by this young Nuggets team. His last season at Morehead, Faried averaged 17.3 points and 14.5 rebounds per game.

Faried is a great rebounder and has even been compared to Dennis Rodman in terms of crashing the boards. His defense is also extremely solid.

At 6'8", Faried is a bit undersized to play the forward and center positions, but his aggressiveness makes up for it. He will need to put on some more muscle though if he wishes to become a legitimate threat to score in the low post.

Some may feel that Faried's odds to win rookie of the year are a bit generous, but the fact is the Nuggets very well could need him to play big minutes from day one, and if he lives up to his potential, he will certainly become a part of the conversation.

Markeiff Morris of Phoenix Suns 27:1

Markeiff Morris averaged 13.6 points, 8.3 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game in his last season at Kansas, playing his way into the 13th overall pick in the draft.

Morris is a very good defender and a capable scorer. He also has some range for a guy at 6-10.

The Phoenix Suns desperately need Morris to perform, especially with Robin Lopez coming along slower than anticipated. And while Morris has potential, he did not display anything in college that easily distinguishes him from the rest.

That being said, given the opportunity to play along side a point guard like Steve Nash, Morris should easily excel on the offensive end. And his defense is almost guaranteed, giving him the tools to at least be a part of the Rookie of the Year conversation.

Marcus Morris of Houston Rockets 25:1

Marcus Morris may prove to be just the wing player the Houston Rockets need to reach the next level.

In his last season at Kansas, Morris averaged 17.2 points and 7.6 rebounds per game, and he proved he is a much better scorer than his twin brother Markeiff. Morris is extremely versatile and can play time at both the 3 and 4, giving the Rockets options.

Additionally, Morris moves effective without the ball, but is also able to create for himself, an attribute that the Rockets will certainly value. He is also a solid three-point shooter at over 34 percent.

Morris' defense could use a little work, but his rebounding is superb. 

If the Rockets give him significant playing time, Morris is bound to impress and become at least an outside candidate for Rookie of the Year honors.

Brandon Knight of Detroit Pistons 20:1

Brandon Knight averaged 17.3 points and 4.2 assists per game last year for the Kentucky Wildcats, playing his way to the eight overall pick in the draft.

Knight is a very skilled three-point shooter; he shot nearly 38 percent from beyond the arc last year.

Yes, Knight has range, but shooting is pretty much all he brings to the table. His defense is less than average and he is not an exceptional passer. His shot selection is also questionable, as is his ability to distinguish when to pass and when to attack.

Given Knight's limited abilities, one may consider his odds slight favorable, but the fact is he is on a weak Detroit Pistons team, which may bolster his stats enough to make him a serious contender for Rookie of the Year honors.

Jan Vesely of Washington Wizards 18:1

The Washington Wizards are in need of a capable big man who can both score and defend, and Jan Vesely provides just that. 

Last year, he spent time with both the EuroLeague and Adriatic, averaging a combined 9.8 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1.3 steals in under 25 minutes of action per game. 

Vesely stats do not do him justice though. He is only 21 and has the potential to develop a Dirk Nowitzki-like game. He has great range for his size and can play time at the 3, 4 and 5 positions.

Vesely definitely needs to improve his rebounding, but he is athletic and tall enough to easily do so. He will get big minutes on a young Washington team and has the potential to deliver.

If Vesely develops the major facets of his games enough, he could be serious candidate for Rookie of the Year.

Bismack Biyombo of Charlotte Bobcats 17:1

The Charlotte Bobcats took a risk by selecting Bismack Biyombo with the fifth overall pick, but he it is  a risk that could pay high dividends.

Biyombo is only 18, and while he only averaged 6.4 points and 5.1 rebounds per game in the ACB, these numbers coming in only 17 minutes of action each game. Some may call this pick reckless or ill advised on the Bobcats' behalf, but it is anything but. Biyombo is an incredible defender. In his limited action last year he averaged an impressive 2.3 blocks per game,.

Biyombo has the potential to make a huge impact on the defensive end immediately for Charlotte, and if he gains confidence on that end, his offense will fall into place as well, making him a serious candidate for Rookie of the Year.

Enes Kanter of Utah Jazz 15:1

The 19-year-old Enes Kanter could prove to be quite a pick for the rebuilding Utah Jazz. 

Kanter averaged two points and 1.5 rebounds in 7.8 minutes per game over in Europe last year, stats that do not exactly turn heads. However, the key here is that he is only 19, and has great potential.

Kanter is a true center who, if given minutes, will grab rebounds and block shots. He is also a capable low post scorer, but needs to develop a bit more range to become more of an offensive threat. 

Kanter may be turn out to be a project, but he may also prove to be an incredible find. The Jazz have the ability to give him substantial minutes, and it is for this reason that he may find his way into Rookie of the Year talks.

Jimmer Fredette of Sacramento Kings 13:1

The Sacramento Kings were looking for a way to sell tickets as well as a bona fide scorer, and they got both by acquiring Jimmer Fredette from the Milwaukee Bucks.

In his senior season at Bringham Young, Fredette averaged 28.9 points and 4.3 assists per game. He also shot nearly 40 percent from beyond the arc.

While Fredette is a prolific scorer, he never played defense in college, mostly because the system was designed that way to keep him out of foul trouble. Fredette is athletic enough to improve on that end of the floor, but he is also an undersized shooting guard and may find it difficult to defend certain players.

Nonetheless, Fredette's prolific shooting will definitely help him become a part of the rookie of the year conversation.

Iman Shumpert of New York Knicks 11:1

Some may be surprised to see Iman Shumpert this high on the list, but he was one of the more underrated players in this year's draft.

In his final season at Georgia Tech,Shumpert averaged 17.3 points, 5.9 rebounds and 2.7 steals per game. He is a great defender and one of the better rebounding guards.

Additionally, Shumpert is extremely elusive and can score both in the pain and hit the mid-range jumper. Shumpert's three-point shooting needs some work, but that should improve in New York Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni's system.

Furthermore, Shumpert has been viewed by some as bait for the Phoenix Suns to deal Steve Nash to the Knicks and as a result may play with a chip on his shoulder to prove to New York he is more than just an asset to dangle.

Shumpert will prove to be a very dangerous player in the league and will most certainly become a candidate for Rookie of the Year honors.

Chris Singleton of Washington Wizards 10:1

On a young Washington Wizards team, Chris Singleton should get enough minutes to really show the league what he can do.

Singleton averaged 13.1 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.5 blocks and two steals per game in his last season at Florida State. He is an asset on both ends of the floor and as versatile a forward as they come.

Singleton can score from all areas of the court, both in the post, and the outside. He averaged nearly 37 percent from beyond the arc last year. Additionally, he is a great defender, who can block, steal and rebound.

Washington needs a versatile player like Singleton in their arsenal and are poised to give him big time minutes so he can make a significant contribution.

Singleton's athleticism combined with the surefire opportunity he will be given in Washington means he could be a serious Rookie of the Year candidate.

Norris Cole of Miami Heat 8: 1

The Miami Heat need a capable point guard to spread the floor and direct the "big three" latent offense.

Norris Cole fits the bill perfectly for what Miami may need. He averaged 21.7 points, 5.3 assists, 5.8 rebounds and 2.2 steals per game. He also shot over 34 percent from beyond the arc.

Cole has great court vision and will be looking to prove himself in the NBA, which likely means he will play extremely unselfishly. Additionally, he is a great defender, capable of keeping pace with the quickest of athletes.

Cole obviously will not be a top offensive for Miami, but teams will neglect to play him tight because they will be so worried about LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, giving him plenty of opportunities to score.

Cole will be a very serious candidate for rookie of the year because he is in an ideal situation. Do not underestimate his value to the Heat.

Miami will utilize Cole the best they can and he should deliver, playing his way into Rookie of the Year talks.

Kemba Walker of Charlotte Bobcats 6:1

Michael Jordan got his prolific guard in Kemba Walker, and the Charlotte Bobcats are going to do their best to develop cohesion between him and D.J. Augustin.

Walker averaged 23.5 points, 4.5 assists, 5.4 rebounds and 1.9 steals per game in his final season at UConn. He is one of the quickest guards there is and makes scoring off the dribble look easy.

Walker is also an underrated defender. He uses his quick feet to keep his man in front of him, and his hands are just as quick, allowing him to swipe more than the occasional steal.

Walker will add some significant scoring to the Bobcats system and should emerge as one of the top rookies from this year's draft class. Look for him to finish at least in the top five of Rookie of the Year voting.

Kyrie Irving of Cleveland Cavaliers 5:1

The first pick of this year's draft is not the most likely candidate to win Rookie of the Year, but he should be among the top candidates.

In his only year at Duke,Irving excelled, averaging 17.5 points, 4.3 assists and 1.5 steals per game. He shot over 46 percent from beyond the arc and was one of the most elusive guards in the country.

Many felt that the Cleveland Cavaliers should have drafted Derrick Williams over Irving, but Irving definitely fits what the Cavs were looking for. He is a solid defender and will be able to make an immediate impact for the team, and gives them a building block for the future.

His chances of winning rookie of the year are good, but hopefully the pressure of becoming the Cavs' savior does not weigh down on him too much. If he can withstand the pressure, his athleticism should do the rest.

Nikola Vucevic of Philadelphia 76ers 3:1

The Philadelphia 76ers were in need of an NBA ready big man and they got one in Nikola Vucevic out of USC.

Last year, Vucevic averaged 17.1 points,10.3 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game. He can shoot the three-ball as well as score in the low post. He is a superb defender who is especially skilled at getting back in transition.

Additionally, he is extremely versatile. He has the strength and aggressiveness of a center and power-forward, but also the finesse of a small forward. This versatility is going to be a major asset to Philadelphia, especially if they wind up moving the ever versatile Andre Iguodala.

The 76ers got a steal in Vucevic at No. 16. Expect him to draw some serious consideration for rookie of the year.

Klay Thompson of Golden State Warriors 2:1

Klay Thompson may come as a shock for having such good odds for becoming Rookie of the Year, but if the Golden State Warriors move Monta Ellis, and all indications are that they will, look for him to command serious consideration for this award.

In his final season at Washington State, Thompson proved to be one of the more prolific scorers in the country. He averaged 21.6 points, 5.2 rebounds and 1.6 steals per game. He also shot nearly 40 percent from beyond the arc.

Thompson is a solid defender and extremely athletic. He draws a slight resemblance to Ellis in terms of play style, except he is a better defender.

Furthermore, he is more NBA ready than many of the players who were drafted ahead of him, making him a steal at No. 11 overall.

When paired with Stephen Curry, Thompson could become extremely lethal, and become one of the top rookie of the year candidates.

Derrick Williams of Minnesota Timberwolves 3:2

The Minnesota Timberwolves made a great selection when they selected Derrick Williams out of Arizona with the second overall pick in the draft.

In his sophomore year at Arizona, Williams averaged 19.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and one steal per game. He also shot nearly 57 percent from behind the three-point line.

Williams has been classified as Michael Beasley like, but he does not come with the attitude or criminal record, which is a huge plus for the Timberwolves. He is also a much better rebounder and is believed to have more potential.

Williams should thrive along side Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio. And should the Timberwolves find a way to develop a system that allows Beasley and Williams to coexist, Minnesota could become a dangerous team.

Many thought that Williams should have been drafted first overall, and he validates such speculation by having the best chances of winning rookie of the year honors.