College Football Preseason Rankings 2011: Why Auburn Got Shafted in the Poll

Looking at the preseason coaches’ poll there were not many surprises that rocked the college football world. One surprise however was the return of the national champion to the bottom fifth of the preseason rankings.

Last season, Auburn started the season ranked 23rd and rose to No. 1 by the end of the season. It was the longest climb ever in the modern football era to the national title. Auburn set a second record this past month with the release of the preseason rankings.

Auburn’s placement at 19th is the lowest that a defending champion has ever been ranked in the BCS era as well as the lowest after a championship run since the 1961 Minnesota Golden Gophers.

Do the Tigers have any right to argue that they should be ranked a little higher? Is there any ground for the Tigers to stand on and say that they are a better team? History seems to think so.

History

Looking at the most recent national champions (BCS-era champions) Auburn has a shot at being a lot better than most expect. Since 1999, following a title run, the average wins for the following year have been 10.4. In no way am I saying that Auburn finishes with 10 wins, but it leaves something to think about.

There are only four teams that had fewer than 10 wins in their defending season, three of which finished with nine wins.

The least amount of wins of any team in the modern championship era has been eight and that was by the 2008 LSU Tigers. That set of Tigers had some issues and kinks in their season after, but that is not the common trend.

So does it appear unreasonable for most people to pick Auburn to be a .500 team based on teams past? Not necessarily but history doesn’t lie. Auburn does return the least amount of true starters of any team in recent memory which will hurt their projections early on but by midseason starters are starters. The freshman mistakes disappear with quality coaching.

Experience

Is it totally improbable that the Tigers will make a 10-win run? Not really, but it does seem to be a stretch with the lack of returning veterans and senior leadership. What the prognosticators are unable to recognize is the obvious experience that was obtained last season by these new young starters.

Players like Demetruce McNeal and Chris Davis were thrown to the wolves last season and earned significant playing time in 2010 with the major depletion of Tigers to injury in the defensive secondary.

Players like Corey Lemonier and Jake Holland saw significant playing time as well in reserve roles and earned some very quality snaps in the SEC Championship and national championship games.

Auburn returns two starters to the offensive line while the other two guard positions will be filled with players who have three-plus years in the system. The major question offensively is the quarterback position, but looking across the league, there is a wealth of teams that will have quarterback woes.

One of the most popular picks to be a part of the national title race this season, Alabama, has a lot of the same questions offensively as the Tigers, but far less focus has been placed on those major issues. Don’t misunderstand, Alabama will have a stellar defense, but I am not sold on the offense being able to outscore every opponent they play this season.

The Schedule

The schedule is the biggest deferral when discussing Auburn’s apparent large fall from grace. The schedule is one of the most difficult I have witnessed for the Tigers and is sure to be rigorous through the month of October.

Despite the difficulty, Auburn will win games this season that it shouldn’t. The talent is undeniable, and with the leadership from the younger players and the guidance of this coaching staff, Auburn can and will succeed when it shouldn’t.

If Auburn makes it out of October with three wins, it will have a great shot at a season that can leave fans smiling and pundits shaking their heads at their inaccuracies. With a victory against Ole Miss expected and one likely against the new staff at Florida, one win at South Carolina, Arkansas or LSU would solidify a winning season.

Where Should the Tigers Fall?

Does Auburn deserve to be in the top 10 this preseason? Not necessarily, but some would say that the previous season's end ranking should match the preseason of the following year until a team loses. In a perfect world, where rankings play a major role in finding a champion, the preseason rankings would disappear until the beginning of October when teams finally have an identity.

There are numerous preseason darlings that have flopped in the past, but that isn’t par for the course.  I would not expect to see Auburn tumble to the four-win depths that some seem to predict. Looking back at 2009, the Tigers finished with eight wins in Chizik’s first year with the same scholarship numbers that they face today.

There was little experience and much concern at the quarterback position, and there was much left to be proven at the running back and line positions. There isn’t a doubt that this Auburn team will be a game or two better in the win column than the 2009 squad.

In my opinion, with a large amount of leadership missing from last season, a placement in the 14-16 range would seem admirable. If Auburn makes it through the first four games undefeated, it will likely walk into South Carolina as a top 15 team anyway.

In Closing…

Why has there been such an apparent lack of hope for the 2011 Tigers? There appears to be a number of items on the list that have led most folks to predict a terrible season, but if you take a second glance, some of the excuses for failure can be stunted at the source. One popular myth is that the Tigers have a young offensive line. The last I checked, young is not labeled by three seniors, one junior and a redshirt sophomore.

As pointed out in this article, history is in the favor of the Tigers, and the experience factor is mainly a myth at the starting positions. The schedule is going to be a very difficult bridge to cross but don’t get caught off guard when Auburn wins games it “shouldn’t.”

These preseason rankings are just one more example of how the bandwagon journalists follow on the lemming trail to preseason predictions.