College Football Rankings 2011: BCS-or-Bust Rating for the Preseason Top 25

The start of the 2011 college football season is right around the corner as many preseason polls and awards lists are being released to the public.  One of the most well-known preseason polls is the USA Today Coaches Poll.

Some college football fans believe it is unfair to rank teams before they have played a single down of football. Regardless, the polls definitely help give games early in the season a sense of importance.

Whether you agree or disagree with the preseason polls, every fan knows that the only poll that really matters is the last one of the season.

Every team in the top 25 is shooting for a BCS bowl game and possibly the national championship, but very few will get there.  Here is a list categorizing every team in the top 25 as either a BCS contender or a pretender.

25. Penn State: Pretender

After a sub-par 2010 season Penn State is looking to bounce back this season.  The team returns most of its key players, including star wide receiver Derek Moye.

The 2010 season was supposed to be a stepping stone for the 2011 season as the young and inexperienced Nittany Lions struggled to a 7-6 record. 

For this season to be different, Penn State will need better play on both the offensive and defensive lines.  Last season the team's pass rush was almost nonexistent and its offensive line got no push on run plays.

The Nittany Lions should start off the season well, although they do welcome the Alabama Crimson Tide to Happy Valley.  The tough test will be at the end of the season with Penn State as it plays Nebraska, Ohio State and Wisconsin in consecutive weeks.

If it can survive those games, Penn State will likely be in the hunt for a Big Ten title, but that isn't very realistic.

24. Texas: Pretender

Plain and simple: 2010 was Texas's worst football season since Mack Brown became the team's head coach.  With all of the talent on its roster I think it is safe to say that this team will not turn in another 5-7 season.

Brown has vowed to return to a run-based offensive attack that should be in the best interest of the Longhorn's beefy offensive line.  Regardless of the offense, Texas needs to find an answer at quarterback, whether it be Garrett Gilbert or Case McCoy.

The 2011 schedule does not set up very nicely for the Longhorns as they will have to play Oklahoma and Oklahoma State on back-to-back Saturdays.  Although 2011 should be a much better year for the Longhorns, they will not contend for a BCS Bowl game as they are probably the third or fourth best team in the Big 12.

23. Florida: Contender

Former head coach Urban Myer brought high expectations to Gainesville and it is now Will Muschamp's job to live up to those expectations.  The Florida Gators have one of the most talented rosters in the country but it is the job of Muschamp and his staff to turn that talent into wins.

For that reason, he hired offensive coordinator Charlie Weis, who is one of the most gifted offensive football minds in the country.  It will be his job to turn senior quarterback John Brantley into the star fans thought he could be when he arrived on campus as the top high school quarterback in the nation.

Although the Gators will have a tough stretch of games in the SEC when they face Alabama, LSU and Auburn in consecutive weeks, this team should be able to rise to the occasion.

Muschcamp has Florida fired up and ready to return to BCS glory.

22. Georgia: Pretender

The Georgia Bulldogs enter the college football season with one of the most talented freshman classes in school history.  Unfortunately, a lot of the Bulldogs preseason hype has been based on these incoming freshmen who have yet to play a down of football in college.

Quarterback Aaron Murray is excited to have talented players around him like Isaiah Crowell, but it is extremely difficult to win consistently in the SEC by playing freshmen.

Despite a relatively easy schedule in 2011 the Bulldogs are going to have a very tough time making it to a BCS bowl game with so many young players in key positions.

21. Missouri: Contender

Under head coach Gary Pinkel, the Missouri Tigers have been able to become consistent contenders in the Big 12.  This season the team will hope to take the leap to becoming BCS contenders.

Despite losing Blaine Gabbert and Aldon Smith to the NFL, the Tigers still return a lot of talent and experience on both sides of the ball. 

James Franklin will be taking over for Gabbert as the team's new starting quarterback and he'll have a veteran corps of receivers to throw to.  If Franklin can find a deep target to stretch the field he should be able to put up big numbers in his first year as a starter.

Other than games against Oklahoma and Texas A&M, Missouri gets most of its big games at home in 2011, which is always helpful.  Look for the Tigers to be in the hunt for the Big 12 title until the final week of the regular season.

20. Mississippi State: Pretender

The Mississippi State Bulldogs came out of nowhere last season to contend in the difficult SEC.  This season there are high expectations for head coach Dan Mullen and company.

Now that teams know the Bulldogs are for real, it is going to very tough for Mississippi State to surprise teams once it takes the field.  Fans are encouraged by the fact that the team returns its starting backfield of Chris Relf and Vick Ballard, but it is going to be tough to improve on last season.

The Bulldogs will face the best teams in the SEC over the course of the season with very few easy games between. Last season Mississippi State did not have a victory over a team that finished in the AP Top 25 and if the same thing happens this season the Bulldogs won't be ranked in the top 25 either.

It is very possible that Mississippi State could have an even better year than last but I don't see it happening.

19. Auburn: Pretender

The Auburn Tigers seemingly came out of nowhere last season to win the BCS National Championship but it is going to be extremely difficult to repeat.  Auburn lost its best defensive player Nick Fairley as well as Heisman Trophy-winner Cam Newton.

The Tigers are not lacking in talent entering the 2011 season but they are lacking experience.  Navigating through the SEC regular season undefeated is a very difficult task especially when breaking in a new quarterback and offensive line.

Last season was probably the best season in Auburn history and it will still be remembered that way after the 2011 season has come to a close.

18. Notre Dame: Pretender

It has been a very long time since Notre Dame has contended for a BCS bowl bid and I don't expect that to change in 2011.  Brian Kelly is entering his second season as the team's head coach and there is a lot of optimism following a decent first year.

The Fighting Irish are a talented team but will need to show their skills on a consistent basis if they want to be big-time contenders.  It is pretty hard to do that when you don't know who the starting quarterback is.

Luckily Notre Dame has an extremely easy schedule in 2011 that it should be able to capitalize on.  Unfortunately, if the Irish want to play in a BCS game they'll likely need to beat Michigan, Michigan State, USC and Stanford to make up for their weaker opponents.

17. Michigan State: Pretender

In 2010 the Michigan State Spartans were the surprise team of the Big Ten.  They were able to win a share of the conference title but did not get an invite to play in a BCS bowl game.

The Spartan faithful are hoping that Michigan State can improve on its performance from last year and get to a BCS game.  This is not going to be an easy task as the Spartans will have to travel to Notre Dame, Ohio State, Nebraska and Iowa.

With their lack of pass rush, I expect the Spartans to lose at least two of those road games, which will make it difficult to win the Big Ten outright and qualify for a BCS bowl game.

16. Ohio State: Contender

2010 was a great year for Ohio State football. Unfortunately, 2011 hasn't brought the same good fortune. 

The Buckeyes' long-time head coach Jim Tressel has resigned amidst an NCAA investigation, and star quarterback Terrelle Pryor has also left town for the same reason.

Ohio State still has one of the most talented rosters in the Big Ten, but it is going to be an uphill battle to win the Legends Division.  The Buckeyes are lucky enough to have most of their toughest games at home, but they will be playing those games with a new starting quarterback.

Whether senior Joe Bauserman or freshman Braxton Miller start most of the games at quarterback, the Buckeyes will only go as far the quarterback takes him.  If these guys can limit the turnovers and keep the offense moving, Ohio State should have a good season and contend for a Big Ten Championship.

15. TCU: Contender

Although the TCU Horned Frogs are not scheduled to join the Big East for another year, they should not be considered a "small school" anymore.  TCU has gone 25-1 over the last two seasons and shows no signs of slowing down.

Despite losing talented players to the NFL like quarterback Andy Dalton, the Horned Frogs continue to reload talent on both sides of the ball.

Last season TCU's defense was one of the best in the country.  And with linebackers Tank Carder and Tanner Brock back, the same should be true in 2011.  If TCU can survive its trip to Boise State it should find itself in another BCS bowl game.

14. Arkansas: Pretender

Last season the Arkansas Razorbacks were one of the toughest teams to beat in the SEC, thanks in large part to their high-powered offense.  That offense will look a little different now with former quarterback Ryan Mallett in the NFL.

Arkansas brings back most of its skill players on offense, including running back Knile Davis and receiver Greg Child, but the offensive line still needs to be solidified.  On the defensive side of the ball the Razorbacks will need to make sure that their defensive backs are able to match up with the receivers of the SEC.

The Razorbacks are bound to have another good season in 2011.  But with road games against Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU, it is going to be very tough for them to get back to a BCS game.

13. Virginia Tech: Contender

The Virginia Tech Hokies are the quietest dominant team in college football.  They have been ACC Champions for three of the last four years.

The Hokies game may not make it look pretty but Frank Beamer's style of play produces wins.

With former stars Tyrod Taylor and Ryan Williams now in the NFL, Virginia Tech will have a different look offensively.  Still, fans are excited about the potential of new duo of quarterback Logan Thomas and running back David Willson.

Virginia Tech should easily win the ACC Coastal Division, thanks in part to an easy road schedule.  With a win in the ACC Championship Game the Hokies would be on their way to another BCS bowl game.

12. South Carolina: Contender

2010 was a great year for the South Carolina Gamecocks football team.  Head coach Steve Spurrier was able to win the school's first SEC East title, but Spurrier definitely doesn't deserve all of the credit. He had big-time contributions from guys like Stephen Garcia.

Garcia is one of the best quarterbacks in South Carolina history, ranking in the top five in most of the school’s all-time passing statistics.

Sophomore running back Marcus Lattimore will be back after a stellar freshman campaign to help Garcia keep the Gamecocks offense balanced.

Although Garcia has had some issues off the field this offseason, he should be the starting quarterback for the Gamecocks to open the season. Gamecock fans are hoping that Garcia and Alshon Jeffery can put up the same type of numbers as they did a season ago and win the SEC Championship.

11. Nebraska: Pretender

In their first season in the Big Ten, the Nebraska Cornhuskers are arguably the best team in the Legends Division.  They will look to to use their strong defensive front to shut down the offenses of their opponents.

This will not be an easy task, but the offense should be more stable with quarterback Taylor Martinez entering his second year as a starter.  Martinez will probably be scrambling quite a bit with some new faces on the offensive line, but as the season progresses they should find their groove.

The one thing standing in the way of Nebraska is its schedule.  It has to play Wisconsin and Ohio State back-to-back and then finish the season against Penn State, Michigan and Iowa.

It is going to be very hard to survive those games with fewer than two losses, and if Nebraska loses more than a couple games it won't win the Legends Division.

10. Wisconsin: Contender

Last season the Wisconsin Badgers had a great year, winning a share of the Big Ten title and earning a Rose Bowl berth.  In 2011 the Badgers have even bigger aspirations.

Wisconsin was handed the gift of quarterback Russell Wilson this offseason, who graduated from NC State but had another year of eligibility.  Wilson was smart to choose the Badgers, who have multiple weapons on the offensive side of the ball. 

The Badgers will be tested on the road at Ohio State and should have their hands full when Nebraska comes to Madison, but the road is fairly clear for them otherwise.  This season Wisconsin would not only like to play in a BCS game but actually win one.

9. Texas A&M: Pretender

Going into the 2011 season, Texas A&M is expected to have one of the best offenses in the country.  It is led by quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who had an incredible second half to last season.

It also never hurts when you have some of the best receivers in the nation to throw to.  Jeff Fuller and company are poised to have a big year in the Big Ten.

The one thing working against the Aggies is history.  Texas A&M hasn't won double-digit games since 1998 and I don't see it happening with road games at Texas Tech and Oklahoma.

The Aggies are bound to be upset once at home during the season, and just a couple losses would keep them out of the BCS hunt.

8. Oklahoma State: Contender

For much of the 2010 season Oklahoma State was in the hunt for a Big 12 Championship and the same should be true this season.  A lot of the praise should go to quarterback Brandon Weeden.

As a junior last year, Weeden had a break out year in the Cowboys’ spread system, passing for 4,277 yards and 34 touchdowns.

In 2011 Weeden will have to play under a new offensive coordinator with Dana Holgorsen gone, but receiver Justin Blackmon should help make the transition easier. Blackmon won the Biletnikoff Award last season as a sophomore and is poised for an outstanding junior campaign.

With Oklahoma State having to transition to a slightly different offense,  Weeden is the perfect guy to have at the reigns. Cowboy fans are hoping that the dynamic duo of Weeden and Blackmon can score their way to a BCS bowl game this season.

7. Boise State: Contender

When thinking about the Boise State Broncos over the past few years, one word comes to mind, and that word is consistency. A lot of that has to do with the play of quarterback Kellen Moore.

Moore has been the starting quarterback at Boise State for the past three seasons, during which he has thrown a total of 129 touchdown passes with just 19 interceptions.

In recent years it seems that Boise State is just always good and flirts with undefeated seasons; Moore is a big reason why. The Broncos’ field general leads by example and his teammates have followed in his footsteps.

In 2011 Moore will have to find new targets to throw to,  with the graduation of his top two receivers Austin Pettis and Titus Young. But with his accuracy, Moore should have no problem gelling with his new receivers and keeping the offense rolling.

6. Stanford: Pretender

The Stanford Cardinal had an outstanding football season in 2010 and as a result the expectations are high for this season.  Stanford returns quarterback Andrew Luck, who is without a doubt the best quarterback in college football.

A lot is going to be expected of Luck now that former head coach Jim Harbaugh is with the San Francisco 49ers and many of last season's team leaders have graduated.  This season, Luck will need to make a lot of adjustments. The Cardinal will be breaking in three new starting linemen and Luck’s favorite target, Ryan Whalen, is gone.

The Cardinal will likely compete for the Pac-12 North title against Oregon, but the Ducks will be tough to beat again this season.  What will likely keep them from another BCS game is their road schedule, which has them traveling to USC, Arizona and Oregon State.

5. Florida State: Contender

Look out, college football fans, Florida State might be on their way back to dominating the football landscape.

Head coach Jimbo Fisher has a talented group of Seminoles on both sides of the ball, which will help them contend for an ACC Championship.  FSU is looking to take that next big step forward and make it back to a BCS bowl game for the first time since Bobby Bowden retired.

To make that happen quarterback E.J. Manuel will need to be more consistent especially around the red zone.  Luckily he has talented athletes around him and a forgiving conference schedule.

4. LSU: Pretender

Last season the LSU Tigers were quietly one of the best teams in the SEC.  In 2011 fans expect nothing but the same type of production.

As always the Tigers defense will be one of the best in the country with their speed and size.  The offense returns several weapons at the skill positions but it will all come down to the play of Jordan Jefferson.

The quarterback has had his ups and downs as a Tiger but was hoping to have a strong senior year in a new offense.  That is still a possibility, but he will need to learn quickly as LSU faces Oregon, Mississippi State and West Virginia all away from home in the month of September.

In regular season SEC play the Tigers will get most of their toughest opponents at home expect for Alabama, which will be a huge game.  At the end of the season I think LSU will be stuck with at least two or three losses, making it hard for them to make a BCS bowl game.

3. Oregon: Contender

2010 was one of the best years of football in the University of Oregon's history, but even more is expected this season.  Ever since head coach Chip Kelly's arrival on campus, the Oregon Ducks have had one of the highest-scoring offenses in the country. 

Initially, that had a lot to do with his scheme, but now it is the talented players executing the offense that garner the attention.  Running back LaMichael James and quarterback Darron Thomas form one of the most talented and dangerous backfields in the county. 

The Ducks are a team built around speed, and they have plenty of it at the key positions in 2011.  Although the Ducks graduated some good players they have plenty of depth at most positions.

Oregon will be tested early against LSU and then in the season on the road against Arizona and Stanford.  Regardless, the Ducks should emerge victorious from the Pac-12 North because of their talent and experience.

If Oregon gets the Pac-12 Championship Game in Autzen Stadium the Ducks could be smelling roses once again.

2. Alabama: Contender

The Alabama Crimson Tide have plenty of questions left to answer as the 2011 season swiftly approaches.  The main question is about the quarterback.  Currently the Tide have not named a starter for their season opener, but it is expected to be A.J. McCarron. 

Despite McCarron’s talent, he lacks a go-to receiver with Julio Jones in the NFL.  That means teams are going to load the box and force McCarron to beat them.  The Tide welcome that as Trent Richardson is ready to carry the load in Alabama's backfield.

The Tide will have a difficult schedule but should be able to ride it out with their strong defense and running game.  If McCarron can step up at quarterback the sky is the limit for Alabama.

1. Oklahoma: Contender

This season the Oklahoma Sooners are many people’s favorites to win the national championship and their offense is a big reason why.  Quarterback Landry Jones is back for his junior season and is poised to put up big numbers for the second consecutive season.

During his first year as a full-time starter last season, Jones passed for a whopping 4,718 yards and 38 touchdowns. Oklahoma fans are extremely optimistic about the team's chances in 2011 because Jones is one of nine returning offensive starters from a season ago.  One of those returning starters is receiver Ryan Broyles, who is arguably one of the most complete receivers in the country. 

The Sooners will have a tough road to make it to the national championship, but they should be able to outscore most of their opponents in 2011.  When they can't, their experienced defense will help keep them in games.

Overall, Oklahoma is one of the most complete teams in the nation and will be hard to beat on any given night.