College Football Preseason Rankings: Predicting First Loss for Each of Top 25

Losing is a part of sports.

Unless we are talking about one of those weird Little Leagues where they don't keep score (but you know the other team's parents are), every game has a loser.

The USA Today Coaches' Poll is supposedly put out to help us identify which teams out of the 120 FBS squads have the best chance of coming out on top, but in reality, almost all of them will lose at least once in the '11 season.

So when will it be?

This list summarizes every team in the Coaches' poll and forecasts when their first loss will be.

Hopefully no parents get violent afterward...

25. Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State is short on quarterbacks.

Of course, Rob Bolden and Matt McGloin both have game experience, but if something happens to both of them, the next guy on the depth chart is the mascot.

That said, the Lions have some talent on defense and one of the best receivers in the conference returning in senior Derek Moye.

Tailback Silas Redd is on the verge of a breakout season after rushing for 424 yards and four touchdowns last season.

Michael Mauti is back from injury to lead a solid group of linebackers.

A run at the Big Ten title is not out of the question, but the quarterback position needs to find some consistency in order for that to happen.

Unfortunately for them, Alabama is coming for a visit in the second week of the season.

First Loss: September 10 vs Alabama

24. Texas Longhorns

The Longhorns certainly have enough talent from all their excellent recruiting classes that you would think they can play with anybody in the country.

Last season, that was not that case, as the 'Horns struggled to go 5-7.

2011 will not be much better.

Mack Brown has still not named an official starting quarterback, and the defense lost what talent it did have in the secondary.

While Texas should be able to handle non-conference foes BYU, Rice and UCLA, the conference slate is just brutal this season.

The Longhorns will be fortunate if they finish in the top five teams in their conference.

First Loss: October 8 vs Oklahoma

23. Florida Gators

Much like Texas, the Gators are loaded with young talent on both sides of the ball.

The switch to a new offensive system will benefit Florida's personnel in the long run, but may be somewhat difficult to watch this season.

In time, the combination of Muschamp and Weis will have the Gators back near the top of the SEC.

Their schedule is fairly manageable through September, and then they will start to come back to reality.

Inconsistent QB play and poor offensive line play might get them past Tennessee, Kentucky and Florida Atlantic, but it won't fly when they face Alabama and LSU in consecutive weeks.

First Loss: October 1 vs Alabama

22. Georgia Bulldogs

As much as Boise State is a little overrated, the Dawgs are even more so, and unfortunately for them, they face the Broncos in Atlanta to start the season.

The Bulldogs' offensive line, though experienced, is experienced in mediocre play, and the same could be said for the secondary.

Both units struggled to find any type of consistency.

If that continues to be the case, Boise State has the personnel to exploit those two vulnerable areas of weakness, and this game will be over in the first half.

First Loss: September 3 vs Boise State

21. Missouri Tigers

This Missouri Tigers team is a very dangerous squad.

That being said, they must navigate a treacherous non-conference schedule.

The Tigers face Miami(OH) to start the season, a squad that returns 18 starters to a team that went 10-4 in 2010.

While James Franklin may have a little time to adjust to his role as quarterback in that game, his worst nightmare waits in Week 2.

Sure, the Tigers could make a run at the Big 12 title and will likely enjoy good to moderate success in conference play, but there is no team in the Big 12 with a defense as speedy and ferocious as the Arizona State Sun Devils.

First Loss: Friday, September 9 at Arizona State

20. Mississippi State Bulldogs

Too many holes. That's how you could sum up the Bulldogs in '11.

Sure, Chris Relf is making strides, and has a great group of receivers and solid run game to back him up.

But the departure of All-American Derek Sherrod leaves a gaping hole in the offensive line.

Then there is a defense that has so many new faces they all wear their names on the front of their jerseys...

Too much attrition for early season success in Starkville.

First Loss: Thursday, September 15 vs LSU

19. Auburn Tigers

Gene Chizik is a scary man.

But the intimidation factor won't be enough for the Tigers to have a great season, even if they do get the quarterback situation sorted out.

Sure, the Tigers can probably hang with the likes of Florida, Georgia and Tennessee, but the top tier teams in the conference are just out of their league this season.

The Tigers return only six starters, and Chizik has his hands full adjusting to life after Cam Newton.

By the end of the season, the inexperience factor may have gotten better, but not before they suffer a few losses.

First Loss: September 10 vs Mississippi State

18. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

At least Brian Kelly has some sort of plan for anointing his starting quarterback going into the season.

The difference between Tommy Rees and Dayne Crist is negligible, and either is a good option.

If there is any coach in the country more qualified to handle a QB situation, he hasn't made the news recently.

Kelly had some solid QBs at Cincinnati, and even a few quarterback battles.

This is not new territory for him, and the Irish will start the season in good shape under center.

That, along with a young, but extremely talented, defense will help the Irish to a BCS game.

First Loss: November 26 at Stanford

17. Michigan State Spartans

Michigan State is expecting big things from their offense.

Kirk Cousins is a cerebral quarterback with solid accuracy and a bunch of talent surrounding him.

The opposite could be said of the defense.

While guys like Jerel Worthy will provide some spectacular play at times, there are lingering questions along the front seven.

It took a last second trick play to beat Notre Dame last season, but that won't happen again.

The Irish are the better team in 2011, and will prove it at home.

First Loss: September 17 at Notre Dame

16. Ohio State Buckeyes

Forget about the controversy for a minute and just focus on the team.

New head coach, inexperienced starting quarterback, limited experience on defense and suspensions.

None of which are very conducive to a great season.

When looking at their schedule, one might pick the game at Miami as a potential loss for the Buckeyes, but unless 'Canes quarterback Jacory Harris turns into Joe Montana overnight, OSU should sneak out a "w".

Much more likely is the home game against Michigan State or the first game after the suspensions on the road against Nebraska.

While the Buckeyes will probably not free-fall to the bottom of the pack, they will certainly be knocked off of their Big Ten pedestal very early.

Be afraid, Luke Fickell; be very afraid.

First Loss: October 1 vs Michigan State

15. TCU Horned Frogs

The Frogs consistently have one of the better defenses in the country.

That will remain the truth through the 2011 season, with linebackers Tanner Brock and Tank Carder leading the way.

Ed Wesley and the stable of talented running backs that the Frogs can throw on the field are a big bright spot and should help take some of the pressure of new QB Casey Pachall.

The MWC is going to be tougher this season, with the arrival of Boise State and the emergence of Air Force and San Diego State.

Unfortunately for the Frogs, they face all three of those teams on the road...

First Loss: September 10 at Air Force

14. Arkansas Razorbacks

Much has been made of the transition from Ryan Mallett to Tyler Wilson at quarterback, but the truth is that the Hogs are going to be just as explosive as last season.

Where the serious improvement will come is on the defense.

Arkansas made a huge leap in defensive efficiency last season, and with tons of returning talent, should make another leap in 2011.

The Razorbacks have a tough road, with battles against Texas A&M and Alabama early in the year, but have the talent to pull of an upset or two.

First Loss: November 5 vs South Carolina

13. Virginia Tech Hokies

This Virginia Tech team is in a great position to reach the ACC championship game.

Logan Thomas and David Wilson are more than capable hands to take control of the offense, and Frank Beamer's defenses are always stout.

The added benefit of a favorable schedule really helps out Tech, as a trip to Lane Stadium is a scary proposition for any opponent.

The Hokies host their toughest competition of the season, Miami, UNC and Clemson, and while a trip to East Carolina to face Dominique Davis and Co. might present an early season challenge, they should emerge yet unscathed.

But a repeat ACC Championship is just too much to ask.

First Loss: ACC Championship Game vs Florida State

12. South Carolina Gamecocks

If Steve Spurrier is ever going to take the Gamecocks to the BCS, this is his chance.

The SEC East is as weak as it has been in a long time, and South Carolina does not face LSU or Alabama.

A trip to Georgia early in the year is going to be tricky, but with the skill players the Gamecocks can throw on the field, and a scary good defensive line, they should be able to navigate through the trip.

SC will probably remain as mercurial as its quarterback, Stephen Garcia, and while the potential for an undefeated run to the conference championship game is there, it's not very likely.

First Loss: October 15 at Mississippi State

11. Nebraska Cornhuskers

The Huskers have a pretty tough road ahead of them in their new conference.

Road trips to Madison, Ann Arbor and Happy Valley combine with visits from Michigan State, Ohio State, Northwestern and Iowa to give Nebraska the toughest slate of games in the conference.

While many pundits predict the Huskers to run through the conference in their inaugural season en route to the Big Ten crown, reason would point to a few tough losses, particularly on the road.

Taylor Martinez has yet to show he can be super consistent, and even last season, he struggled against teams with better defenses.

The strength of this Husker team will be their defense, and with guys like Jared Crick and Lavonte David roaming the field, they should keep the Huskers in every game, no matter how anemic the offense turns out to be.

First Loss: October 1 at Wisconsin

10. Wisconsin Badgers

Wisconsin has huge expectations to deal with after a Rose Bowl loss last season.

The transfer of Russell Wilson has put some clear separation between the Badgers and the rest of the Big Ten pack, except Nebraska.

The Badgers have one of the most talented secondaries and explosive linebackers in the conference, and their run game is second to none.

If Wilson finds a way to gel with the team quickly, and manages to get a handle on Paul Chryst's playbook, the Badgers are a scary squad to deal with.

First Loss: Big Ten Championship vs Nebraska

9. Texas A&M Aggies

A&M is the best team in Texas this season.

The Aggies boast a vaunted running game, a talented quarterback and one of the most overlooked receivers in the conference in Jeff Fuller.

A&M gets to host both Okie Lite and Missouri this season, but must travel to Norman late in the year for a battle with the Sooners.

Mike Sherman has put together one of the better defenses in the conference, and they will be Oklahoma's biggest challenger for the conference crown.

They must face Arkansas in non-conference play, however, and that will be a difficult proposition.

First Loss: October 1 vs Arkansas

8. Oklahoma State Cowboys

You will get no argument from here regarding the potency of the 'Pokes offensive game.

What you will here is an explanation of why they are overrated.

Dana Holgorsen is gone, and the man was the genius behind all those high-flying offenses.

The impact of his departure will be felt.

Kendall Hunter is gone, and the Cowboys don't exactly play defense well enough to scare many teams.

They will have a nice season, especially with two guys on offense who could compete for the Heisman, but let's not get carried away.

First Loss:  September 24 at Texas A&M

7. Boise State Broncos

Here the Broncos are, sitting in the top 10 yet again.

The difference this season?

They now play in the MWC.

While Kellen Moore is bound to put up big numbers, the Broncos are likely to find the road to an undefeated season more difficult than they have in the past.

Conventional wisdom would tell you that if the Broncos get past Georgia, they will go undefeated.

But last season's team was better, and still lost one game.

This year, BSU will lose at least two.

First Loss: October 22 vs Air Force

6. Stanford Cardinal

The Cardinal have a scary passing attack and a burgeoning star in linebacker Shayne Skov.

However, losses along the o-line and at wide receiver could pose some problems for Andrew Luck and Co.

New head coach David Shaw is no Jim Harbaugh, and even with Chris Owusu lining up at wide receiver and stretching the field, the Cardinal are going to have a hard time being as successful as last season's Orange Bowl squad.

First Loss: October 29 at USC

5. Florida State Seminoles

Xavier Rhodes, Greg Reid, Nigel Bradham, Brandon Jenkins...the list of talent on the FSU defense goes on for a long time.

The 'Noles have some of the highest expectations of any team in the country, and with good reason.

E.J. Manuel has a ton of weapons returning on offense, including his two top rushers, top 10 pass-catchers and four starters on the o-line.

The ACC schedule is not particularly difficult, and they get to welcome the Sooners to Tallahassee in a non-conference showdown September 17.

First Loss: BCS Championship vs LSU

4. LSU Tigers

In spite of Les Miles' inability to manage a clock, the Tigers are in for a great season.

Jordan Jefferson appeared to be making strides at the end of last season, and with Spencer Ware in the backfield, the Tigers have two dynamic play-makers handling the ball.

Defensively, even without Patrick Peterson, they are a lock down unit in the passing game.

The SEC is always tough, but the Tigers have the talent to make it through unscathed.

First Loss: 2012 season

3. Oregon Ducks

The Ducks won't have to wait long for their first slip-up.

The departure of five offensive linemen from the rotation, coupled with some losses in the receiving corps, means that they need time to make adjustment to that high-octane offense.

That is the one thing Chip Kelly's squad doesn't have.

While there is no doubt Oregon will be back in the hunt for the Pac-12 title, their BCS championship hopes will be dashed in Week 1.

First Loss: September 3 vs LSU

2. Alabama Crimson Tide

Nine returning starters on defense means that the Tide are going to be very tough to put points up against.

However, the Tide lost a Heisman winning tailback, a championship winning quarterback and an uber talented wide receiver.

In the highly competitive SEC, any slight advantage or disadvantage can mean the difference between going undefeated and losing three games.

First Loss: November 5 vs LSU

1. Oklahoma Sooners

While much has been made of the Sooners' returning talent on the offensive side of the ball, let's look at some numbers.

In true road games, Landry Jones has a 4-5 record as a starter.

In those nine games, he has posted 17 touchdowns and 15 interceptions.

Not exactly convincing, are they?

Yet another reason that early season bout with the Seminoles looms large.

You may wish to go on and on about the 42-17 whooping the Sooners gave the 'Noles last season, or their untested quarterback, but Jones' numbers don't exactly inspire confidence, do they?

First Loss: September 17 at Florida State